The market has remained in the upper area of the tight range it has been in for some time. I am still taking the less risky trading approach of waitig for this market to fall to the Support line at 1.4800. I am prepared to wait until it does so.
The adventurous traders: The market has tentatively cracked the 1.5000 (only as far as the high 1.5007). As stated yesterday in the 7.00 pm Edit, there is no need to race to get into a trade...maybe wait until better direction just before the London open.
Emails
Email 1
I've read every single post you made on FF and on your blog, but it seems that I can't remember exactly, what did you say (and if did you said it explicitly) about leaving your buy/sell orders open before the news and managing an open trade during the news. If I am in a trade, and I have a sizable cushion of profit, I will often play with the markets money in order to increase my gains. I will usually set a target price 100 pips above my current position ....
Most times, if I am only in a small profit I will close it because the brokers play the wider spreads, high velocity ranging that takes out stops both top and bottom,and all the other games they play
And I never try to just trade the news.
Also remember this from the FF site ( Post number 7):
In my opinion, You have NO chance trying to trade the news (buy or sell as soon as the news is released)...the dealers will ALWAYS be in front of you. (you need a broker too that won't play unfair tricks during those high volatility times, those tricks include freezing the platform, some will widen the spread way too much, others will get you filled way to far from the price you wanted to).
Whichever broker you trade with, you are trading through their platform. Consequently, their brokers will therefore have an advantage over you. To think otherwise is naive.
They are taking the other side of the trade (which they must in "trading the news" because they don't have time to spread their risk), and they will fight tooth and nail not to give away a business advantage to any trader. That's why they are doing all the things (plus much more) outlined above.
Its like poker, if you look around the room and can't see the patsy, then YOU are the patsy. The faster / shorter time frames that you try to play in this business the more you are at a disadvantage.
Retail traders trading the news are like fish swimming with hungry sharks in blood-filled water.
Email 2
On a side note, I read the "Forex mentor" thread on FF today. I should never have gone back onto the Forum...there are some guys who just want to earn a "scalp" by arguing with me....I can't believe that I fell for it and got sucked into an argument... I didn't read through much of it actually, just your posts to get the gist of it...and here's what you should tell them: it is quite rare for a system to be able to withstand high leverage. Most systems, even ones with an edge, will fail when risk is above 20%/trade (learned this from Larry Williams). Yes,, that is only 5 losing trades in a row at 20% each and the account is busted
Now, I spreadsheeted all your trades (since the fund started), and an account would not have ever dipped into the starting equity at all even with an insane 45% risk/trade. While it is true that trading with such a high risk produces a very choppy equity curve (the account would be sitting at 457% return with a high of 4847% at its highest), the fact that the equity curve never dipped into the starting equity is a miracle.
With a more conservative risk factor of 30%/trade, the account would be just shy of 2000%, with an equity high of 3160%.
To put this into perspective, a $100,000 account would be at $1.9 million today. Now since no trader would trade with that kind of risk, we'll try 5%/trade. Good, For a little while there I was having a heart attack at what I thought you were going to try to do....but the 5% makes me feel better!!!
5% yields a very pretty equity curve, steadily increasing, almost like a bank account collecting interest. Except, instead of being up 0.25% after a year (or so), we are up 138% to date. Now, what kind of fund does that? Hmmm... I agree. That is what Mark keeps telling me... ( And he keeps hammering into me that we did it with the Great Financial Crisis starting on the exact same day that the Fund started (08/08/2008…the launch of the Beijing Olympics).
Still , I am used to the much higher returns from 2006 and 2007, so my target returns are a little higher than what we have achieved this last year
Email 3
is it accurate to say that knowing economics/fundamentals matters much more when trading stocks than when trading forex? Hmmm...no I see economics/fundamentals as more applicable to Forex............... Accounting and Financial skills in analyzing Balance Sheets and Profit and LossStatements is better for stocks
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 494
It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday November 24 and the market 1.4905
The market is starting to look weaker and my target of the 1.4800 Support line will be hit soon.
The adventurous traders: All of the adventurous traders should be in at much higher than 1.4950 OR if you have caught it on the way back down, you would have sold at 1.4950 today. Either way, you are all in a good short term trade. Some of you may want to pull your SL down to Break Even.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4980 The market has been run back up as high as 1.4984. This market has been spending its vacation at the 1.4850 Hotel and it has overstayed its welcome. It has been in this vicinity for most of the last 30 trading days since Oct 12.
The market will be choppy today because the news events are spread out. At 8.30am (Preliminary GDP numbers), then 10.00am (CB Consumer confidence) and then later at 2.00pm (FOMC minutes)
The adventurous traders. Most of you would have been stopped out at Break Even on the quick spike up an hour ago. I would not be entering this market again just at the present time. It is a 50/50 bet that you could fade the market (and go short) or whether the longs are building a beach-head to attack the 1.5000 level at the release of the GDP numbers.
And I don't know the answer...... so I would stay out until I had evidence of one direction or the other.
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4946 The market was again stopped short of the 1.5000 barrier with a high of only 1.4988. I am still leaning towards the market falling to my Support line at 1.4800 soon.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.4966. Market is still in this upper area of the tight range it has been in for some time. However, the 1.5000 resistance area is holding. I am still leaning towards this market falling to 1.4800. I am prepared to wait until it does so.
The adventurous traders: I would again attempt to trade the Range and be a seller at above 1.4950 (preferably as close to 1.5000 as possible). There is no need to race to get into a sell trade...maybe wait until better direction just before the London open. (I have a suspicion that the market will use the upcoming Thanksgiving Day break to "run" this market...and I believe they may take it down...A good potential trade to consider over the next 24 hours may be to take a short trade down from the upper areas (1.4970-1.4980) of this Range that the market has been in. It is I would consider a 100 pip SL with a Target Price of the Support line at 1.4800
Emails
Email 1
just an observation . beside being agressive and trade the EU in smaller time frame( like agressive traders are doing with EU ) . i found trading daily with the same method u have teach us with other pairs give very good results even better than EU sometimes . only need to be sure of the trend . like AU . NU . UJ . Oh yes, the method works on anything that trends...I personally just like to only focus on one thing at a time..That is all.
If I was trading the other currencies, I would have to either cut back on my EUR/USD trade sizes OR increase my trading risk over two or more currencies. Now the AUD is paired with the USD, so I would have two currencies, the AUD and the EUR both paired against the USD. So if the USD does something unusual BOTH the AUD and EUR will be impacted...
If that is the case, I would have been just as easy by simply having doubled my risk exposure to the EUR/USD
the only thing for sure is to be sure of the daily trend . for example AU has been in up trend for a while and taking it long at the trend line 300 period on daily ,if u look at the chart all trades since a few weeks now has been winners . Yes, but you are using the benefit of 20/20 hindsight on the choice of the AUD......and also the AUD is not as leveraged to the USD as the EUR, so your actual USD profits would have been less
Email 2
My question is so far the euro seems to have failed to go below the 4820 - 4800 level 3 times over the past 2 weeks. Does it mean the bull market is still strongly in place and that the probability of it reaching the 4750 support decreases considerably now? No...when someone is banging loudly on the door repeatedly, you let them in. When price is banging on the 1.4850 door repeatedly, the market normally lets them in
With the asian session taking out stops in the 4950 levels, do you think that europe will follow suit and continue more buying? I am not sure, but I think that the 1.5000 level is a hard egg to break at the moment
Email 3
You have being saying that there has being lots of talk of it not breaking the 1.5000 mark, I have being thinking- dangerous I know, LOL LOL that after watching this market for 9 months
that usually the opposite happens and fast, would you agree or is it wishfull thinking. It is forex,,, anything is possible but the rumour is very widespread and now getting very loud.. Best to be safe than sorry. (It may also now be becoming self fulfilling that it won't break 1.5000 )
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 493
It is 3.00am NY time Monday November 23 and the market is at 1.4957
The market has bounced off the 1.4850 area again today in early Asian trading. This 50% fib resistance area of 1.4850 has certainly shown some extraordinary resilience over the last week. At the same time, the moves UP from each bounce were progressively lower highs at 1.5015 (Nov16) , 1.4989 (Nov 18) , 1.4935 (Nov 19) and 1.4932 (Nov 20).
The trading position is similar to last week. I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Resistance line. At the present time there is no descending Resistance line of interest. In regards to horizontal Resistance lines, the Resistance is still at the previous high of 1.5062
The Support line is found by linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3) and 1.2886 (April21) and 1.4626 (Nov 2) we can see that the rising Support line is today at 1.4800. As can be seen we are quite some distance from the Support line, but as can be seen from last weeks action late in the week, the market can come down to that area reasonably quickly and often.
The 50% Fib line between 1.4626 (Nov 2) and 1.5048(Nov 10) is still at 1.4850
Until the market returns to the Support line, I am on the sidelines.
The adventurous traders may wish to consider trading both up and down the tight range between 1.4850 to 1.4950 and use tight hard stops.
Edit 8.00am NY time Good morning America. The market is at 1.4974. There is no news events out of the States until 10.00am (with Existing Home Sales) but ECB President Mr Trichet is speaking in Madrid as I type. Nothing major coming out just yet.
The adventurous traders: The market has not traded at 1.4950 since the above post, so you should either, (1) not be in the trade yet or (2) you should have sold at much higher that 1.4950
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4983 The market has remained higher in the morning session after peaking at just under 1.5000 on the Home Sales news. There has been only minor movement since that time.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.4955. I am still on the sidelines waiting for the market to get to my 1.4800 Support line
The adventurous traders... The market has been above 1.4950 since my 3.00am post. You should have either sold at higher than 1.4950 OR you are still waiting for it to touch 1.4950 and trigger your Sell orders.
Emails
Email 1
Like you I had seen 1.5062 as the top (R) and there have been plenty ot moves up but not broken since high 23/10? Yes
I have marked up asecending support line as outlined by you and i dont get exactly 1.475 but i presume you are just going to the close round number or 50, hence 1.4750. yes
Assuming I have got the fib right my discount (or first entry point is around 1.4840 to go long) if price dosent look like it will get to 1.4750. Correct
Is low at 2 Oct more relevant as this would bring 50% fib closer to 1.4750. The 50% fibs are best viewed as progressive targets...when the first one has been hit, then move back in time(from right side of the chart to the left side of the chart and pick up the next 50% Fib line...which in this case is the Oct 2 low to the Oct 26 High)
While waiting for the bottom SL to be tested I have traded C/T selling yesterday at 17.22 GMT /1.4973 when it failed to make its highs on approach to 1.50 again and produced Lower Highs. a good adventurous trade….
I used a 50 pip TSL as overnight here for safety and came out with over 100 pips. It may have more in it yet but im pleased with 100 pips Excellent
Email 2
i had a small counter trade yestarday from 1,4985( 50pips fixed SL) , which i have closed today just over 1,4900( to soon as usuall, but as it was counter trade i decided not to be too greedy on that ) so my day started nicelly, excellent..some of the adventurous traders are doing very well... they have the advantage of being able to trade quicker than me and getting a couple of "smash and grab" trades by not being too greedy. I target trades with a minimum of 100+ potential pips.
Email 3
When you pull up any currency pair and draw in horizontal lines at levels that have acted as both support and resistance over time you can usually see reactions at these levels into the future. Do you ever consider these levels in your normal trading? Yes I "consider" them... but they are statistically"weak"...1.4850 has worked well this week...But the falling Resistance line and the rising Support line are much clearer and much stronger
I guess what I am asking is should I pay any attention to horizontal support/resistance lines at all when they are not mentioned as part of the original Jacko method, particularly ones like the 1.5000, which is about as round as you can get? Oh...the horizontal lines are there, but their statistical reliability is less than 50% ..Plus the lines are not as well respected...have a look at 1.4850 this week...it was acting as a horizontal S&R line but it was very blurry. The market was dancing all around it
Email 4
I was watching Bloomberg on TV late last night - and they had a currency'expert' from JPMorgan I think it was.. Was he old enough to shave ??? Some of those guys look 16...LOL
He said that the expectation was for the dollar to be in for a 'major correction' soon.? Yes...highly possible
To what level would a correction be rather than retracement - A correction and a retracement are the same thing to me
and in your experience does this happen in short time frame such as hours or days..or would it be more likely to be over weeks. weeks
With your comments about the dollar not breaching the 15000 level due to a'wall'..is it likely that the only way from now is a downward trendwith the correction in mind? The UP trend since April (almost 150 trading days ) is still in place so I will be watching when it gets to the Support line with the intention of going long (with the trend)... but if it breaks the Daily Support line convincingly (more than 50 pips), I will quickly turn it into a Sell
Email 5
At what point would you consider the trend has changed to the downside? A convincing 50+ pip break of the Daily Support line
I don't see anything in the fundamentals suggesting a major shift (strengthening of the dollar. You won't see the fundamental reason till AFTER the major shift has happened...the fundamentals lag the technical because most chartists are projecting expectation into the equation. Also the fundamentals are not as easy to see as clearly as a line on a chart
What's your thoughts? Do you think others are seeing this formation and selling as a result of this technical formation or for fundamental reasons, that's if this does pan out as a reversal? I think it is both....But the biggest drivers to me are that NO other country wants a weak USD, (Every other country in the world relies on the strong USD for their economic wellbeing)… and also that the US is still the most powerful economic engine in the world...It has seized up lately, but will kick back into life at some point...and I think that that point is very close
Email 6
we've been waiting patiently for a very long time indeed, and price is approaching the support trendline. Do you think it's worth waiting so long just to wait to see what price does at trendlines? Yes, because I want to get one position...then compound up on that position and then let them ride.....
Not to be judgemental, just genuinely curious, do you think longer term trendlines such as this daily TL offer such superior trading opportunities that make it worth waiting, for several days, for price to reach them? Yes, because the option to trade shorter term (along with the other more adventurous traders) is always available to you ..... I am not a signal service... I will only signal you about MY trades...and I am not going to be hustled into trading the shorter term timeframes again. I have been there and done that..and had the financial scars to prove it...LOL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 492
It is 3.00am NY time Friday November 20 and the market is at 1.4916
Today is looking like a repeat of yesterday. The market has moved down from todays earlier high of 1.4934 but is still some distance from the Support line. This market is sitting midway in the range that has been in play since November 7. The market has also bounced off the 1.4850 area a number of times now.
I am on the sides waiting for a Buy at the Support line but as I said yesterday in an email from the day before, if you want to be adventurous, then sell it from 1.4950 with a 100 pip SL (or if you want less risk...sell it at just under 1.5000 at the previous high of 1.4990...IF it gets there).
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4827. The market WAS a repeat of yesterday with a quick drop during London trading. We may even see a repeat of the yesterday's NY session where all the London move down was erased by the US session. I would not be surprised to see this market head back to 1.4900 today. The market is still progressively edging down towards the 1.4750 Support line but we may see one more move back up today.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4870 The market did repeat itself today with the US`session again erasing the move down in London trading. The market has been as high as 1,4874. This market will soon be down to our Support line in trading early next week.
Edit 7.00pm NY time The market is closed. A very frustrating and unproductive week this week. The market has resolutely refused to come down to the Support line but has been bouncing off the 50% Fib line. (I could have taken those trades but I am in risk-minimisation mode this week.
I have also been distracted on the personal side by having to ferry my neighbour back and forth between the hospital and helping her with her daily affairs. (I am still trying to catch up on lost sleep from hanging around a hospital ward all night). I will have a long sleep over the weekend and be bright eyed on Monday.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 491
It is 3.00am NY time Thursday November 19 and the market is at 1.4879
The market has moved down but is still some distance from the Support line. This market is sitting midway in the range that has been in play since November 7, but is looking weak at the London open.
Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4857 The market has moved down to the 1.4850 area. The market is getting closer to my Support line at 1.4750. I will be watching closely today in the hope that we will get a trade. We have been very patient and deserve it.
Edit 12.05pm NY time The market is at 1.4903 The market has been bouncing of the 50% Fib from 1.4626 (Nov 3) and 1.5048 (Nov 11) at 1.4850. But the lows are lower and the highs are lower. The lower lows and the lower highs usually mean that the market is losing strength .... and should fall back to the Support line later. We will be trading soon.
Edit 7.15pm NY time The market is at 1.4924 The market has bouncedup off that 50% fib level again. I will be watching to see if it does not go higher than the previuos days highs of 1.4990 and 1.5015. That will be strong confirmation that it will head down to my Support line
Emails
Email 1
With regards to the latest message 488, you mentioned that you cannot recall why you use 300 periods to analyse your chart since you have been using then for more than 20 years so in the beginning of your futures trading are you using the same methodology back then too... Single Support & Resistance, 50% Fib & round numbers? Like everyone, I looked for the Holy Grail indicators that no-one else knew about and tried different strategies but I gradually got rid of everything else over time
If so how did your trading evolved back then to your present methodology. If so what caused the paradigm shift in your trading method? Do you have a mentor/coach during your trading career to guide you in your trading career or someone you admire who you seek for assistance during your younger days? Hmm.. Because I have been trading so long, I have picked up bits from lots of traders and brokers and gradually realised that there is NO Holy Grail and NO secrets...Just trade the way that the majority of big winner traders trade...They use very basic TA tools because they work. They work because the majority of power traders use them and therefore they become self fulfilling.
Email 2
Thank you for helping your neighbour out. I felt good about it too I would like to say that I was a white knight in shining armour and she was a beautiful young fair maiden.
Unfortunately I am not and she is not.
I am picking her up tomorrow night
Email 3
Are you still bullish on that trendline ? At some point it feels like it's gaining power to push through it once it gets to the there. I know you anticipate the price action at the trendline i am just curious about how you think about the situation now. what makes your view to change etc ? My charts are saying that the bull trend is still in play as long as the Daily Support is not broken..
PS. about the rumors. You said you usually ignore them but this time things might be different. Do you mean that you consider joining the publicly shouted shorts at around 5000? I am hearing a HUGE amount of (unsubstantiated and unsourced) chatter about a WALL of Resistance above 1.5000... If you want to be adventurous, then sell it from 1.4950 with a 100 pip SL. It is bouncing up all the time so there will be more opportunities in the next couple of days
Email 4
I am just wondering why you chose not to buy in at the 50%fib last night(NY morning)? Seemed good to me, price broke the line by +20pips and then went back up. I have been a little distracted this week. When I took my neighbour to the hospital I stayed with her and was awake all night.... I am still trying to sort out some issues at home for her and also trying to catch up on all my lost sleep
Email 5
I really appreciate your help in all this and I got a feeling that the one year mentoring process is not going to be enough because of the current economic climate that doesn't allow me to apply your strategies and understandings as much as I would. What do you think? The experience of trading through the GFC will benefit you enormously, because you have seen the extremes of the market. Reading the ForexFactory , I am watching new traders who have just started coming into the forex markets who "missed" the GFC .
They have no idea just how much that impacted the market.
We traded through it so we know. ..and we will remember it .. and that will save us from being hurt by any later upheavals
It is not every year that we have a Great Financial Crisis. However this is a journey that you have embarked on that you will continue for the rest of your life. It is the best business on the Planet, with no age limit and no one to tell you what to do.
Enjoy it, you will look back in a couple of years and really appreciate what a powerful turning point it (trading Forex) was and what you have done.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 490
It is 3.00am NY time Wednesday November 18 and the market is at 1.4898
The market has continued to progressively moved back up from the 1.4808 to its current price. As stated yesterday, we have received chatter from three sets of brokers now, each saying that they believe that the 1.5000 Resistance area is going to hold.
We are also not getting any sensible response about where this rumour is coming from. Someone is pushing this story hard.
I also saw it today on DailyFX from Jamie Seattle and John Kicklighter. (I normally ignore this type of gossip, but it is getting a strong run from the brokers at the present time....and it seems to be coming from everywhere)
Edit Both stories on DailyFX have now been removed
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4964. The market has moved straight back up to the familiar tight 1.4970 trading range area where it has been for the last week or more.
I am sticking to my strategy that this is still a bull market until proven otherwise (by the convincing break of the Daily Support line) and waiting for the market to move to the Support line for a buy.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4983 The market has moved as high as 1.4990. Given the chatter from brokers over the last 24 hours, it will be interesting to see how vulnerable the 1.5000 area is to this bull market.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.4955 This market is seriously in love with this familiar tight 1.4970 trading range area where it has been for the last week or more. It was stuck in this range again in the US afternoon session. The US session had a total range today of 71 pips... and the afternoon session had a range of 27 pips...Woo hoo.
Emails
Email 1
what is the descending Resistance Line, Rising Support line and Horizontal resistance line?
The descending Resistance line is when you connect all the highest points on the chart to show a descending Resistance line
The rising Support line is when you connect all the lowest points on the chart to show a rising Support line
A Horizontal Resistance line is where there has been a number of congestion points at the same price level at various times over the 300 periods
Email 2
The past few days of trading/waiting is really wearing me out. This waiting game takes more out of me than sitting there with a floating profit. I'm going to …. develop an indicator that tells us when price will stall like this. This way I can time my vacations. Now you know what it is like to be a sailor when they are "becalmed" with no wind.... But beware of the storm coming
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 489
It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday November 17 and the market is at 1.4964
This market is still glued to this narrow and tight trading range around the 1.4970 area at the present time. With the exception of quick moves which are then immediately cancelled out as the market moves back to this tight range, there has been no decent trade opportunity on the Daily chart for a number of days.
Earlier today, I even looked back at the 4H chart in the hope of maybe seeing a trade opportunity. But this tight range has not even produced an opportunity on the 4H charts lately.
Just for fun, I was talking to a member of the group and we even looked at the 5 minute chart over 400 bars and the market has been stuck such a tight range and I could not even see one real opportunity even as wild scalper!!!
(Note If your platform won't show 400 bars, go to either Dailyfx.com charts or Netdania.com charts...they can go up to 1000 bars)
So we wait.....
Edit 9.45am NY time Market at 1.4873 Apologies for the delay. A minor emergency with my neighbour having a bad accident in her apartment and I have taken her to hospital. I will not be trading today. I am at the hospital and will stay with her.
I think I look a little silly with my laptop in a hospital....
Edit 7.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4886 The market has dropped to as low as 1.4808 during the US session. We have had a lot of chatter from the brokers today that they think that we may be past the highs for the Euro and that the market is turning. (I think that they were perhaps trying to generate some business, but....???)
PS My neighbour is now on the road to recovery and will be discharged from hospital in the next day or two
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 488
It is 3.00am NY time Monday November 16 and the market is at 1.4989
The market moved has continued to move higher in Asian trading today than where it closed on Friday. The worse than expected US Consumer Confidence number hammered the USD as the fear of the increasing unemployment spreads throughout the USA. Those numbers put a rocket under the Euro which has continued today in Asia.
The market is now back in that narrow 1.4970- 1.5010 trading range where it spent most of last week.
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Resistance line. At the present time there is no descending Resistance line of interest. In regards to horizontal Resistance lines, the Resistance is at the previous high of 1.5062
The Support line is found by linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3) and 1.2886 (April21) and 1.4626 (Nov 2) we can see that the rising Support line is today at 1.4750. As can be seen we are quite some distance from the Support line.
Until the market returns to the Support line, I am on the sidelines.
The adventurous traders may wish to consider a Counter Trend sell down from the Resistance line area of 1.5062
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4973 I feel a sense of deja vu. The market is back in that narrow trading range that it was in for the most of last week. Being in that location makes it more difficult to trade because it is in no-mans land as far as a guide as to which direction it will go. Hopefully this week it will do as it is supposed to do and go all the way to the Support line so we can get a good trade triggered.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4970 After a minor reaction to the US Core Retail Sales number the market has moved straight back to the tight trading range again. A frustrating market at the present time.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is 1.4980 After a lightning fast drop in the Euro to 1.4880 after Mr Bernanke stated that he was committed to a strong USD, the market has hauled itself straight back to the narrow trading range again. (Obviously traders have a problem believing the sincerety in Mr Bernanke's statements). This market is glued to this narrow and tight trading range at the present time.
Emails
Email 1
What is your rationale for using a 300-period 4H/1D chart before drawing any trendlines, S/Rs and Fibs? Why not 250 or 350 periods? The 300 bars is just a standard that I have always used...I can't even remember the rationale for it anymore but I used it in trading futures for 20+ years... I think that it was because all my brokers used to use it when I traded futures on a medium term and and it was just over a year of Daily data, so it gave a good perspective
Email 2
Sometimes the price "jumps", it moves very rapidly, sometimes this move is of 10 pips and sometimes it's of 50. But it does so at no particular "hot" spot like a resistance/support. No..it is usually when it is moving BETWEEN the Support and Resistance lines because everyone is working out that it is heading there
Is this the action of a big order by a hedge fund/bank, either just making a currency exchange (often the case with a big bank) or trying to move the market for stop hunting etc? Could these strong, fast moves at random points be originated anywhere but by big players like the ones i've mentioned? I think you will find that as the market moves from a Support line upwards, everyone starts to realize that it will go firstly to the 50% line, and then (in 60% of cases) onwards to the Resistance line...so as everyone starts to realize this , the market starts to move quicker
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 487
It is 3.00am NY time Friday November 13 and the market is at 1.48747
Today is a Black Friday ( Friday 13th) which some consider an "unlucky" day. I am not superstitious but ........ LOL
As I projected yesterday, the market has finally broken down out of the tight trading range from early this week.
The market has been as low as 1.4821 which is close enough to the 50% Fib line at 1.4837 (from 1.4626 to 1.5048).
There has been an upward move in Asian trading but this market should continue to progressively work its way back down towards the Support line at 1.4700 over the next 24 hours.
The news items for today are the US Trade Balance numbers at 8.30am NY time, and also the Consumer Sentiment numbers at 9.55am NY time.
The market has moved almost 60% of the distance from its high of 1.5048 to the Support line at 1.4700. The market is now looking tired and is heading down to the Support line area. The speed of the drop yesterday and the limp rebound in Asian trading would indicate that it has further movement downwards to go. I am still very hopeful that the 1.4700 Support line is the target and we will get there very soon.
The adventurous traders may see the 1.4900 area as a potential opportunity to sell this market down to the Support area.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4865 The market has bounced up and reached a high of 1.4902 and is now moving back down. The target of the 1.4700 Support line still stands and I expect that we may get there later today.
Edit 12.25pm NY time Market is at 1.4914 After touching 1.4902 earlier in the day, the market dropped to 1.4824. Then the much worse than expected US Consumer Confidence numbers were announced and the market immediately started to move back up. That is the second time the market has bounced at the 50% fib level. The market may move as high as 1.4950 before resuming its downswing.
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market is closed. The market moved as high as 1.4937. The worse than expected US Consumer Confidence number hammered the USD. The 40% risk of a winning trade based on the bounce of the 50% Fib was not high enough to justify a trade on this occasion. We will need to re-appraise this market on Monday
