MESSAGES FROM JACKO (July 2009) 395 - 404

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 404

It is 1.05am NY time Tuesday July 14 and the market is at 1.3980

As stated yesterday, I am still waiting for the market to move up higher to 1.4100- 1.4150 so that I can sell at a high price and ride the down movement to the 50% fib target of around 1.3650. Those of you who went long for the ride up have had a rocky road but you are still in and you are in profit.

A little note....There was an error number in my Support Line yesterday that should not have been there. It was the 1.3827 (June 23) which belonged to last weeks trend line that has now been superceded.


Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.3984 Market is tightly rangebound but is looking to move up (hopefully) to my target



Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4002 The market has been in a tight 50 pip range (from 1.3960 to 1.4010) for the last 10 hours..... boring.
I am hoping and expecting the US Retail Sales numbers due out at 8.30am to at least give this market a smack around the head


Edit 9.10am NY time Better than expected figures has lifted the USD (sent the Euro down), but only back to the bottom of the 1.3960-1.4010 range. This is a tight range. Something has to break soon.

Emails

Email 1
My question is about reading the charts to know where to put my 50% Fib Retracement inbetween the ebb and flow. I'm using the 4 hour as you've stated and then the daily.
I was taking my 50% Fib Retracement from the same 4 hour support line you sight in Message 398 (1.2884, April 22 as the low, June 3 High of 1.4338 = 50% Fib at 1.3608) yes
In Message 399 you noted a Retracement from May 17 (Low of 1.3422) and June 3 (High of 1.4338) with 1.3880 as the 50% Fib. yes
Why not off of the 4 hour going back to April 22nd? Because the 1.3880 was the first target and 1.3608 is the second target Obviously, 1.3880 has been the bouncing point for the last week, and it's the right number. Yes, but it has now been broken when the market moved to 1.3832 on July 8, so the next target is 1.3650
But what's the method that tells you to take it off of May 17 and NOT from the far bottom left corner of the screen at April 22 - 1.2884 to make the Fib Retracement at 1.3608? Because there are always multiple targets (usually only 2 or 3) from the highs and the lows within that period

Email 2
I do not understand how you determine when is your 50fib line? You mentioned looking at may 17 and jun 3 then next you looked at apr 28 to jun 3. How do you exactly know when to look for your start and end point for arriving at these 2 fib levels? Look for the major turning points and measure your 50% fibs from the highs and lows...Then put them in cascading order of price (there will usually be no more than 2 or 3 over a 300 periond timeframe). Then you can see the progressive targets
Email 3
I would like to get your views on inflation. There are basically 2 schools of thought; some say that the rapid money printing will flood the market with so much liquidity it is gonna devalue the currency and as a result lead to hyperinflation, another believed that the money like tarp etc. has not flowed to the real economy as the banks that has it are not lending it out, thus the flood of liquidity has no effect on inflation.What do you think? This is a real interesting area...we have been discussing it ourselves here the last week with the brokers (that descended on my home like a plague of locusts). What was really interesting is the amount of money that the Govt has committed to paying.... but has not paid. When you add this to the repayments by the Banks, you can see that there was a lot of talk about money being used to shore up the economy, but (relatively) little has been spent compared to what they said they would spend.... I think that the REALLY big numbers was just a "show of force" to let everyone know that the funds available to fight the crisis was virtually unlimited




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 403

It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 13 and the market is at 1.3917

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.

The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4200 (July 2) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4150

The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3827 (June 23) and 1.3832 (July 9) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3875.

The 50% Fib line The 50% fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880 which has been quite solid, though I believe is now finished. The next 50% Fib of note is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at 1.3650

As you know, I have been bearish for some weeks, because I saw 1.4338 as the high. I am still very bearish but I am looking for a a much better SELL price than the current price. I will be a seller up at around 1.4100. I am hoping for one more push up towards the Resistance Line so that I can SELL at between 1.4150-1.4100 so that I can ride it down when it breaks the Support line (hopefully) on its way to the long term target of the 50% Fib target of 1.3650


Edit 4.00am NY time Market at 1.3950 Market is moving up but it has some way to go before it gets into my SELL target area of 1.4100- 1.4150

Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.3980 Market has been as high as 1.3991 in European trading. Those of you who are riding it up to my target are doing well.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3978 The market is moving back and forth within the 1.3900 and 1.4000 mark with no real trade opportunities of size. I am still waiting for a SELL opportunity at a higher level


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 402

It is 1.00am NY time Friday July 10 and the market is at 1.3980

The market moved up sustantially more than I expected yesterday. After bouncing up from the 1.3832 level, I fully expected that the 1.4000 would be sufficient barrier to kill off any further rise. I was seriously wwwrong.
After a near death experience at 1.4071, the market has since retraced back to our entry price. One benefit is that the move to a 100 pip FIXED SL has been beneficial so far. (A 100 pip TSL would have been stopped out). But this trade is not yet over, so the 100 pip SL could still be triggered for a bigger loss than would have occurred with the 100 pip TSL.

Edit 3.25am NY time Market at 1.3912 The market is now moving in our profitable direction. Because it is a Friday, and I don't want to be holding the trade over the weekend, I will be closing the trade manually. I am not sure where I will close it yet as I am not sure that the US session will try to reverse the London push down. It may be that the longer we hold, the lower it will go. I will SMS when I am closing (I am considering 1.3800 or hopefully even 1.3750)

Edit 7.55am NY time Market at 1.3915 In European trading the market has only reached a low of 1.3880 (the old 50% Fib line again) and has moved back up marginally.
I am still waiting to see if NY is going to take it down (which I think it will). I think the longer we hold, the lower it will go.

Edit 9.45am NY time Market was showing signs of an upward move. Rather than stay in and wait for the market to turn back down, I decided that because it was Friday, that I would close the trade early. I closed at 1.3920 for a 70 pip profit.

Emails

Email 1
Yesterday, you were expecting a 100 pip retracement back to around 1.4000, but the market was weak to get up to that level. Hmmmm....yes but it did get there about an hour ago
Well, what I would like to know is, why you were expecting a 100 pip retracement after you closed your trade. Because the market is ranging and will go up and down. But each UP move will be a little less than the previous ones ....and each down move will be a little deeper than the previous ones (because the trend is down)
I think I am not getting the characteristics of EUR/USD market. Don't be confused by thinking that the market is complex and difficult ....It is not complex and difficult at all....most novices think that there is a great secret to the market that once they discover what it is, they will be 100% correct in all their trades. The BIG secret is...there is no secret .
What can I do to understand more about EUR/USD market? Any suggestions? Think of the market as a set of waves that ebb and flow in the direction of the trend. The trend is best determined by looking at 300 x 4H bars and looking at the dominant line (either Support or Resistance). When that line is broken, then MOST times it will mean a change in the trend. But the market never goes straight up or straight down..It ebbs and flows...but it will ebb and flow in the direction of the trend




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 401

It is 1.20am NY time Thursday July 9 and the market is at 1.3906

The market has not been very co-operative in getting up higher and has managed to only get as high as 1.3937.
As stated yesterday, when the market was at 1.3850, the market was looking weak and that a correction was likely. That correction has been taking place since that time but only by around 50 pips. The market is a bit lack lustre at the moment due to the lack of news items this week and is "wandering" around looking for direction.

We wait to see what London will offer us.

Edit 3.05am NY time Market at 1.3919 The late Asian trade had a bit of a rush up to 1.3941 but London is pulling it back now. Hmmm... A directionless market at the moment. I am still waiting for another good SELL position

Edit 6.10am NY time Market at 1.3975 I am tempted to sell here but I want to wait until we get closer to NY opening. If the market is at this level (or higher) at 7.45am NY time I will be selling it at around that price

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3983 I have just sent a SMS some 10 minutes ago saying that I am looking at a higher sell price. (There has been a quick run in the last 15 minutes,,,I am concerned about the Unemployment numbers due out at 8.30am). I am a SELLER above 1.3990. I will SMS as I place my order.

Edit 8.15am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3990. I have a FIXED 100 pip Stop Loss

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market at 1.4029. I am letting the trade play itself out. My SL is still at 1.4090

Emails

Email 1
How do you know the market has turned? Look at 4H chart...the high of 1.4338 has not even come close to being challenged
Upon what time frame do you make this determination? How did you come to that conclusion? Have a look at the Support line (outlined in the blog) that has been broken...that is a good hint. When a 4H line is broken, it means that the market is serious
I think this is a critical point as we are long term traders and I'm making sure I appreciate the nature of the 'trend'. The break of a 4H line is serious...the break of a Daily line (in this current erratic market) is almost too late. And the breaks of the 1H will drive you nuts



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 400

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 8 and the market is at 1.3916

We closed yesterdays short from 1.4035 at 1.3905 for a 130 pip profit.

I am now looking for an opportunity to get back in at a higher price. I am hoping that Europe tries to retrace some of fall in yesterdays US session. Because I believe that the market is falling (in the medium term), any price above my exit at 1.3905 is a bonus. However, I am looking for a 100 pip retracement back to around the 1.4000 area (or just a little lower).

Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.3900 Market has dropped as low as 1.3860 but has rebounded back up to 1.3900. I will be waiting to SELL again but at a price closer to 1.4000. I may be waiting a little while....

Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.3904 The market has been more subdued in European trading than I expected. It has bounced only as high as 1.3937. I will be watching the US session with the hope and intention of selling again on a small retracement at around the 1.4000 area.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3850 Hmm....market looking weak. But it is too low to be selling at these levels. The potential for a correction back up is too high.

Emails I again apologize for the delay in responding to some emails. Our broker friends have decided that the Jackson residence is a more interesting place to stay than their hotel. But I have answered some emails today and will answer all emails soon.

Email 1
First of all, I would like to know why you are a definite seller this week. Beside the broken support line, is there any fundamental issue that backs up this idea? Hmmm...this was interesting and it was on my mind regarding a weakening of the Euro
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article6597813.ece

Second, I would like to know what makes you to wait for the retracement around 4050. Is it Fibonacci 50%? or something else? No, it was because when a strong support / resistance line is broken, the market will return to touch the line for "confirmation" then it falls harder..I was just waiting for that

Email 2
This was sent to me by a couple of traders who saw my posts in the beginning of this week. (We are doing very well compared to these guys...but our brokers had already been telling us that)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEOvYT4LTxJI






MESSAGE FROM JACKO 399

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday July 7 and the market is at 1.3980

As stated yesterday, this market is moving into a downtrend with but with sizable corrections upwards. I am still a SELLER at 1.4050 which I expect will be hit today. However, I want to lower my risk so I will be watching when it gets to that price to see if I can gain some extra pips by selling above that level. I will SMS each of you as I place the trade.

Having said that, I again repeat: I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading and WHY.I don't ask people to follow only my trades. My trades are simply MY trades,... some of the group trade my trades PLUS their own

Edit 7.20am NY time Market has been as high as 1.4028 I have just sent the initial SMS that is advising that we are close to the target. I am still a SELLER at 1.4050 (or better) which I expect will be hit today. However, I want to lower my risk so I will be watching when it gets to that price to see if I can gain some extra pips by selling above that level.
I will SMS each of you as I place the trade.

Edit 7.57am NY time I have just sold at 1.4035. I have a FIXED 100 pip Stop Loss which (as discussed last week) I will be moving periodically.
The market reached to only 1.4049 (1 pip from my target ) at the open of the US session, before starting to fall. I took this as a reversal of the European move from 1.3903 to 1.4049. The market was moving lower so I took the decision to open a trade at the lower price of 1.4035 rather than possibly miss the move.


Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3955 My trade is progressing well at this stage. I am letting it play itself out.

Edit 11.30pm NY time Market at 1.3904 The market has been wallowing around the 1.3900 area in Asian trade. It has bounced off 50% Fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880. and is hanging around the 1.3900 price. I have decided to take the profit and hopefully get back in at a higher price again in the European session. I will SMS as I close the trade


Edit 12.05am NY time Closed out my short at 1.3905 for a 130 pip profit

Emails

I apologize for the delay in responding to some emails. It has been an extended weekend because of the July 4 celebrations and now we have had broker friends visiting us, so my sparetime has been almost non-existent. But I will answer all emails soon.

Email 1
Can you include the charts for your analyses? Firstly, the blog is very "loaded" as it is and I don't want to load it up with heavy charts...but secondly, and more importantly, it is one of the most important traits of a trader to be able to quickly execute his own charts to confirm and verify the data (In Investment bank and brokerages, traders have this as a Key Performance Indicator for their job). I expect each trader in the group to be able to quickly execute their own charts (it should take less than 60 seconds). It is to help you become proficient in this skill.

Email 2
Can we have more responses to mails published. I am sure that other traders would be interested in my emails. The blog is now almost two years old. There is a vast database of previous email responses in the blog that answer most circumstances, but if I see a new or novel question then I publish it. I am also aware that the older members do not want to see the same questions re-hashed over and over. It is much "cleaner" to keep the blog simple
Having said that, I always answer EVERY email. If you as me a question I will answer it by email, but I may not put it on the blog because it has probably already been answered. However I expect that the more serious and committed traders to have already read the full blog. That way I am not answering the same question over and over simply because someone has not taken the effort to read the blog

Email 3
I really must pay more carefull attention to these upcoming news events. Just because I'm not seeking to trade news, does not mean it's irrelevant. Thanks for the warning in the blog. It saved me 30 pips thats correct...the volatility of a news event has the potential to knock you out of a good trade and then go right back to where it was before the news

Email 4
I'm coming to the conclusion that what really matters is the emotional state with which one approaches this business. Of course ...winning and losing money brings out the fear and greed in all of us...you need to control those issues
Currently quite often I'm finding myself thinking about how to accelerate my returns, how to get back into the market quickly if I've just lost to get all my money back and much more by increasing the risk - typical revenge trade, I guess. Don't do it...Walk away and don't trade for 24 hours
Money management is easy and looking for the trend does not seem difficult either once one has mastered their emotional attachment to all this. But what really gets me is to convince myself not to trade or not too look actively for a trade (where there isn't one) if I'm not sure on the trend for e.g. a given week. I got the impression this is the real problem I need to work on and everything else will fall in place - I'm trying hard but it does not come easy. Because you are probably looking for "reasons to trade" rather than the direction of the market
I'm thinking about methods to get around this but haven't got any firm conclusion yet. Any advise would be very welcome. Don't look at the market with the intention of finding a trade....look at the market as an academic exercise...Is the market going up or down in a consistent manner...ONLY THEN, do you think about a trade


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 398

It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 6 and the market is at 1.3980

I will be a definite seller this week. This market has turned and is turning down. After Fridays paper thin trading in the US session and very limited trading activity in Asia today, I will be looking for increased volume out of London and NY to give us opportunities to sell.
The only news items of note this week are the ISM Non -Manufacturing PMI today at 10.00am and then nothing until Friday when the BEA releases the Trade Balance numbers.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3940. I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
There is ONE very important line that is the basis of my trades this week.
By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3827 (June 23) and 1.3888 (June 25) and 1.3988 (July 2) we can see that the previous strong Support line has been broken. It is likely that it will now become a Resistance line. If you look at that line on today's price, the Resistance is at 1.4040 (or 1.4050 rounded).
I will be a SELLER at 1.4050 or higher.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3891 The market has dropped but I am not going to chase it. A 160 pip move to get back to my target can be easily done in this market within a 24 hour period so it is now a matter of waiting for a rebound.

Emails I have answered some emails today from last Friday but I have have some still to answer. I am just going out for dinner with Mark and some of his broker friends who are here on business from the US, so I will answer the remaining emails when I return.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 397

It is 1.00am NY time Friday July 3 and the market is at 1.3990

The US session will be very thin as US banks are closed for Independence Day.
As a good and patriotic American I am also taking the day off to spend with family and friends to celebrate Independence Day

If you have not read the previous two days posts, I would recommend that you do so, starting in date order from July 1. They are probably two of the most important sets of posts that I have posted lately (and there is not a single trade signal in them...LOL).



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 396

It is 1.00am NY time Thurssday July 2 and the market is at 1.4110

Today is Non Farm Payroll (NFP) day. It is arguably the most market moving news (along with FOMC announcement) on the calendar.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4100 The market is looking weak in the lead up to the London session. As I said yesterday, I will be looking to the NFP results today and the effects within the first 1 hour after to determine the strength and direction of the current movement. As stated last Thursday, the market has been fluctuating around the 1.4000 mark (plus or minus 200 pips for the last 30+ days). That has continued to be the case again this week. But today's NFP should be the decisive factor in determining where the market is going in the next few weeks

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4005 The NFP of another 467K US workers who have lost their jobs has sent the market down to the 1.4000 mark again. The Support line at 1.3950 wll be the target.

For those of you who do not want to read some advice from an old guy who has been relatively successful about how to make serious money, please go straight to the emails

I want to take the opportunity to discuss some serious matters relating to trading.I have had some really positive discussions about forex trading with some of you in the last 24 hours, especially those who are already trading fulltime (or are intending to trade full time)

As I have said before, in all my business experience, I have never seen a better business than forex trading. Its features of Leverage, Liquidity and rapid Compounding is unmatched in any business I have ever seen. And in a time when the Dow has lost 40+%, property has lost approximately 30+% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable, we are comfortably pumping out double digit percentage profits in the middle of the biggest financial crisis this generation has ever seen. ..... AND with a maximum risk of only 2% of capital on each trade.
It is an issue of control, discipline and keeping the proper time perspective .

For example, a question was asked that if I had used the higher risk of 4% versus the standard 2%, would my current return have increased from 30+% per year to 60% and the answer is yes. But I would not recommend it in the current environment. (I mean, really, what's wrong with earning 30+% in the middle of a near-Global meltdown?? ...AND learning a skill that will give you MUCH higher rates of return when the market returns to normality!!...AND that you can use for the rest of your life !!)
In discussions with the brokers in the last couple of days, they have said that there are only a couple of traders that they know that are matching our profit rate, but that they are trading with a much higher risk rate. In other words, their "risk of ruin" is much higher than ours.

In a time where 7 million US workers have joined the unemployment line in the last 12 months, the belief in the "safety of the salary" has never been exposed as much as today. The potential for anyone over 45 who is made redundant to be re-employed at a similar level of salary and responsibility is reported to be as low as around 5%.

Similarly, the destruction of the values of the 401K's (or superannuation / pensions/ retirement funds, etc) has highlighted the potential for a massive reduction in living standards in the future. Given the massive debts incurred by Governments around the world, the future of Government-funded Social Security and medical health systems is looking very dim. They simply cannot afford it.

I have always counselled people of the absolute necessity for individuals to have a business or career that YOU have control over to prevent the above situations impacting on your lives.
If you master those forex issues above, you will earn more than you ever thought possible.


Email 1
Hi Wayne, I was reading about your trading results which I can agree with you are having better returns than my financial advisors and managed investments are performing. My managed investments are almost all under water by a minimum of MINUS 10%. Yes , that appears to be the norm. Some Managed Investment Schemes I have seen are much worse than minus 10%. I expect that if you look at the value of your home, it would also have dropped significantly
I see that you use only a 2% of capital risk on each trade. If you increased your risk by 5 times to 10%, does your rate of return increase by 5 times to 150%. LOL. UH OH ..I know where this is heading. Yes..it would be nice to double my money and more each year....but the potential of going bust increases too !! I would certainly never recommend that anyone trade at more than 5% on any one trade EVER. And certainly NOT in the current trading environment. I am often receiving emails from traders who write that they had one bad trade that cost them 20%, 30% even 40% of their funds....That is just insane money management !!! It is driven by impatience and greed. The benefits of this business are sufficient to give you enormous annual returns. But the potential for huge losses is when you try to earn that annual return in one day!

Email 2
After reading all of the DailyFX posts, it appears that the market has changed drastically. Are you looking at ways to trade the new ranging markets that are now in place? I think that I am always looking to improve my trading to be flexible to the market
Now when I was trading back in 2006 and 2007 and the trend was more consistent, my trading return was incredibly high due to two factors: my annual percentage return (based on 2% per trade) was much higher than my 30+% in the current market because of the stability of the trend and
secondly, (because I had extreme confidence in the strategy I was employing), I was able to turbo-charge the returns by increasing the risk to 5% on most of the trades.
In the existing market, those strategies are still available....BUT they are much more dangerous. That is why I recommend only 2% risk of capital per trade and that you trade cautiously as you learn your new skill. This is a business that you will be able to do whenever and where ever you want ...for the rest of your life.
History has a case of repeating itself over and over, and we should see the return of a solid trend in the near future. As aspiring traders who want to become involved in this excellent industry, it is important that you use this time to learn your trade.
Having said that, even in this wild ranging market caused by the biggest financial crisis this generation has seen, we are still happy with our returns. My trading income is quite easy to work out. In less than one year, we have earned well in excess of 1000 pips times USD$10 per pip times 150- 200 contracts. Not bad for tapping computer keys

Email 3
Are there traders in the group doing better than you? Oh yes! There are a number of traders doing better than me. They are prepared to trade more aggressively than me and they are prepared to trade more often than me.
But they are also trading more dangerously than me....
Having said that, I am impressed with their respect for my opinion and most of them email me quite often asking how to better improve their trading. One common factor is that all the really successful traders are actively tapping into my experience to improve their own trading. They are not interested in just receiving trading signals. And they are taking responsibility that if they want to be a good trader, they have to work at it.
One of the newer traders from Australia is doing very, very well. It is very early days but he is easily on track to make a million dollars in the next few years. But the big advantage he has is that he understands the mentoring process. He understands that I am a mentor who acts as a sounding board, not his mother who is going to spoon feed him..LOL




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 395

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 1 and the market is at 1.4035

An article from DailyFX today states "Forex options markets show that professional traders remain remarkably indecisive, and the lack of clear-cut sentiment on the US Dollar makes it difficult to set short-term expectations with any sense of certainty" An understatement of the Year !!

Yesterday's more aggressive trading paid off. I intend to proactively increase the number of trades as the opportunities arise. Looking back over June, two of the four loss trades were whipsawed by market spikes, and taken out by only 3 pips and 9 pips respectively, before the market dropped right back each time. Very frustrating...but thats trading.
I am also going to more proactively "nurse" each trade rather than just leave it to the more passive 100 pip TSLs. (I am considering a Fixed 100 pip Stop Loss and manually moving it periodically to keep it away from the 100 pip fluctuations that seem to be occurring with more frequency lately).

After a difficult month, I have spent some quality time this week talking to some of Mark's broker contacts and they are all saying the same thing. Many of their trader clients have been financially killed off by the market in the last 11 months since the Financial Crisis started August and have left the industry. The fact that we were never at any risk is considered by them as a very positive sign and a measure of our good money management. The fact that we are substantially in profit makes us one of the rare traders at the moment.

The common theme seems to be that most traders started increasing their trading sizes and frequency in the early stages of the Financial Crisis to recover initial losses from the increased volatility. We, on the other hand hunkered down and slowed our trading right down and became very selective, which allowed us to post excellent returns early and those profits have cushioned us over the year from the worst of the Financial Crisis.
That has encouraged me that we are on the right track. Mrs Jacko is still happy with my trading profits this year though she has told me that the latter part has not been as impressive as she would like. So I am under the hammer to punch out good trading results over the next two months as the first anniversary of the start of the Fund comes around.

As I have said before, in all my business experience, I have never seen a better business than forex trading. Its features of Leverage, Liquidity and rapid Compounding is unmatched in any business I have ever seen. And in a time when the Dow has lost 40+%, property has lost approximately 30+% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable, we are comfortably pumping out double digit percentage profits in the middle of the biggest financial crisis this generation has ever seen. ..... AND with a maximum risk of only 2% of capital on each trade.
It is an issue of control, discipline and keeping the proper time perspective . But if you master those issues you will earn more than you ever thought possible.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4065 After the market movement yesterday,
our Resistance line from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4151 (June 30)has moved up marginally to approx 1.4150.
Our Support line stays the same and is currently at approx 1.3950.
So we can see that the market is currently in the middle of the Support and Resistance lines.
I am waiting for it to get closer to the Resistance line so that I can sell it again

Edit 7.00am NY time Market at 1.4065 The news events for today are the ADP Non Farm Payroll at 8.15am. Note that the ADP NFP is not as reliable or respected as much as the Bureau of Labor Statistics NFP out tomorrow, but still has a significant impact. Then the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Pending Home Sales are released at 10.00am. These will also have a significant impact.
In light of the above, I would recommend staying out of the market until the dust has settled. The potential for 100 pip Stop Losses being whipped out is VERY high. Only the very brave or foolhardy trade TWO sets of news events within 2 hours of each other

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.4177 The market has moved upwards on reaction of the above two sets of news and has breached the Resistance line at 1.4150. Depending on the outcome of tomorrows NFP I will be re-considering the short approach to the market.

Emails

Email 1
Hi Wayne, I was surprised by your last trade. That is the first time since I joined over 12 months ago that that you have not forewarned us before the trade and sent me an SMS. I would prefer that we always get an SMS even if the buy or sale price has been passed. I could then make my own decision on whether I want to take a trade at the current market price. I would have traded at 1.4080. I sincerely apologise for the lack of the notification of the trade . As you say, this is the first time that the notification was not sent. It was not that the market move was quick, it was that MY DECISION to enter the trade was quick. The decision to go short had been stated on the blog last week and early this week. It was as I was watching it that I decided to jump in there and then.
Having said all that, I have repeatedly stated that I am NOT a signal service...My trades are NOT a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading and WHY.I don't ask people in the group to follow only my trades. My trades are simply my trades,... some of the group trade my trades PLUS their own.
I am certain that we are now coming out of the worst of the Financial Crisis and I will be becoming more aggressive in the trading. I will try to make sure that we don't have a repeat . But also please keep it in perspective, it is only one missed trade in what will hopefully be many more trades in your career.

MESSAGES FROM JACKO (June 2009) 372 - 394

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 394

It is 1.10am NY time Tuesday June 30 and the market is at 1.4102

The market moved very little in yesterdays late US session due to lack of any news during the day. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers at 10.00am today will have an impact.

The market has broken the Resistance line at 1.4120 then moved as high as 1.4131 and has now fallen back to 1.4102. I have been speaking to a number of brokers today and they are saying that the market is bullish. This makes me feel confident because the brokers are almost always wrong...LOL. (If they were any good as traders , they would not be working as brokers and taking complaints all day from unhappy traders).

However, it has made me step back and watch this market for a little longer. I am still 51% confident that we are seeing a very slow turn in the market but I am prepared to consider that I may be wrong. So rather than take a trade that could be wrong, I will wait until I see more evidence of direction.

Edit 3.10am NY time Market at 1.4106 The market spiked up to 1.4151 on very thin volume in late Asian trade but London has immediately slapped it back down to the 1.4106.

Edit 8.30am NY time Market at 1.4125 The market is sitting only 25 pips from where it started the day some 7 hours ago. I want to see a direction before I place money on this market.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4037 I have an apology to make. As the market started to fall just after the last post, I made an instant decision to sell. The fall was starting to move so I executed market orders and by the time I had placed all the orders and we had checked all the trades, the market had dropped too far for me to blog it and SMS it to each of you. (it was around 1.4080) I apologize but I also have a priority and responsibility to earning profits for the Fund. My average sell price was 1.4116 and I closed them at 1.4015. (Given the speed the market dropped, it was reasonably obvious that 1.4000...or close to it... would be the bounce point). I expect the market to bounce up for the second half of this US session, but the crack in the market means that the bears will be in charge for this week.

Edit 12.40pm NY time Market at 1.4040 I am looking to sell again later today or tomorrow
(The market MAY drift back up as high as 1.4100...but I believe that the bears are in play for this week)


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 393

It is 1.10am NY time Monday June 29 and the market is at 1.4026

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.

The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4137 (June 24) and 1.4117 (June 26) . we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4120

The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3827 (June 23) and 1.3888 (June 25) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3900.

The 50% Fib line The 50% fib from 1.3888 (June 25) to 1.4117 (June 26) at 1.4002 has just been hit in early Asian trade today. So we now move to the next possible 50% Fib on a longer time frame.
The next 50% Fib on a larger time is from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880.
And the final 50% Fib of note is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at 1.3650

I am a SELLER again this week.

As stated previously, I believe that the break of the previous 4H support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) is a good indicator that we are in a bearish market and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.
Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness and volatility is partially disguising the move down.... but the trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.
To demonstrate the choppiness, from as far back as May 21 right up to today, the euro has traded in a tight range of (plus or minus) 250 pips around the central 1.4000 price. Making it even more challenging for traders is the fact that within that tight range, the volatility swings are much bigger and faster than previously.

The market is moving into a tight wedge and I expect to see a large breakout this week. It will likely coincide with the NFP announcement on Thursday.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4001. The market has dropped to as low as 1.3982 but i was not awake to trade when the market was trading at its highs. However, this market will come back into a sell zone soon.

Edit 8.05am NY time Market at 1.4062 The market has moved back up towards the Resistance line but has not gone far enough to get in the sell zone. I would want to see it get to around the 1.4115 mark before looking at it again

Edit 12.05am NY time Market at 1.4053 The market is doing very little, The market has been as high as 1.4080 and is now sitting in the 1.4050's. I am now going to bed and will check out the market again when I wake.

Emails

Email 1
I was wondering when do you review the trendlines you set out on Monday, is this an ongoing process yes or do you basically decide on a Sunday/Monday what the TLs are going to be for the week and stick to this? Nooo...I always am prepared to admit that I may be wrong and adjust the charts for new information/price action
The market made a higher low on the 23/06 compared to 15/06 and a higher high on the 24/06 compared to 19/06. Would this indicate a change to an uptrend again, discarding the option of a short-term down? Possible...I still have it in my mind that we are in a short term bear market that has been turning slowly but that the excessive choppiness is disguising the turn
Do you have any opinion when we will see this whole mess return to a bit more normal levels again with decreased volatility etc? As the financial crisis purges the economy of the excesses, it will gradually move back to less volatility
Thanks a lot, I'm still reading through the past year on your blog trying to extract the essential information The markets will be here for the rest of your liife
Trading's been up and down since I joined but I keep telling myself it's much better that this happens in the beginning then having a great run and getting too confident too quickly. Enjoy it ...you are getting "experience" in a difficult time. You are witnessing one of the great financial upheavals of your time....I experienced the crash in 1987 and the dotcom meltdown...the previous generation experienced the Great depression and a horrific World War...so enjoy this time because the experience will give you an investment experience headstart over most of your generation

Email 2
I have made a bit more success since January by looking for a market where the trend is blindingly obvious (even to a thick 5 yr old) and applying your techniques of going with the trend - trading on retracement, round numbers etc. In particular USD/CAD, AUS/USD and GPB/USD have all had periods where they have 'trended' better than EUR/USD. Ok

So, have I just got lucky trading markets where I have minimal experience? No, I don't think so....As you have been trading you have been learning and getting more experienced...and your skill level is increasing, even if you are unaware of it
And, if I am going to treat this like a business, do I need to study one market so that I know it inside out and have an extra 'edge' as you do, in addition to the strength of your system? If you are trading from a pure technical aspect you can use various pairs...I just prefer the one pair

Or are your basic rules robust enough that they can be applied across a number of forex markets where an obvious trend can be identified? Yes easily - I have made minor adjustments such as increasing the stoploss sometimes to 120 or 150 during more volatile periods - a bit arbitrary but it has certainly kept me in some profitable trades. thats being adaptive and pragmatic...that is fine
In other words - Does choosing a market with a very obvious trend give me an extra 'edge' which I cannot achieve from long term experience or innate ability? Yes
Thanks again for being so generous with your time and advice. Thank you...it was an interesting email




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 392

It is 3.40am NY time Friday June 26 and the market is at 1.4049

I apologize for the delay in posting today but I have been in the grip of a Hong Kong realtor and two of his associates. The words "tenacious" and "not taking no for an answer" reached new levels today. It was like being hugged by three grizzly bears and and an octopus or two trying to get hold of my wallet with all their hands. They simply could not believe that I did not want to buy the property they were trying to sell me.

Anyway, on to trading. As stated yesterday, I would like to see one more movement up above the 1.4000 mark to rescue my A-H soldier at 1.4020 because I also can't shake the intuitive feeling that when we come out of this trading range we have been in for the last 30 days, that the Euro is heading south.

Also, although it is a Friday, I have decided to have a quick trade and get out by the mid US session.

I am a SELLER at 1.4020 or higher.

Edit 4.00am NY time I have just sold at 1.4038. I have a 100 pip TSL...

Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4090. The market has moved against me by 52 pips but in an erratic market, it is not where it is that matters, it is where it ends up at the end of the trade. The market has moved to as low as 1.4014 so I've moved my TSL to 1.4114.

Edit 12.01pm NY time Market at 1.4055 The market is meandering around and my TSL at 1.4114 is still in place so I have decided to leave the trade in place and let it play itself out. I may close it before the close of business but I will SMS you if I do.

Edit 6.00pm NY time Market is closed. The market spiked up to a high of 1.4117 taking out my SL by just 3 pips before dropping back to 1.4160's.



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 391

It is 1.05am NY time Thursday June 25 and the market is at 1.3959

The market is back at the 1.3950 area that it loves so well. It has been fluctuating around the 1.4000 mark (plus or minus 200 pips for the last 30+ days). This has made it very difficult to trade unless you are a consummate expert practitioner of the skill of scalping...

The FOMC announcement yesterday was overshadowed earlier in the day by the report that the SNB was considering intervening in the Swiss Franc. This had the immediate flow-on effect of sending the Euro down almost 100 pips in minutes. (Interestingly, it was only a couple of months ago when another rumour of SNB intervention sent the Euro up 150 +pips in minutes).

The report of the SNB intervention and the subsequent immedita drop in the euro in turn took some of the impact out of the FOMC announcement, though it still dropped 110 pips (from 1.3998 - 1.3887) in less than 30 minutes.

Ironically, my A-H trade would have been an excellent trade, but I considered the risk of opening a trade before a FOMC announcement as being far too risky. If it had been any other news event, except for a FOMC or NFP announcement, I would have left it in place.
As you know the two biggest market moving announcements are the FOMC announcements and the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers. They have the ability of moving the Euro 200+ pips in minutes accompanied by huge widening of spreads and major slippage in executing orders.

Edit 3,15am NY time Market at 1. 3954 Will be watching to see the market direction for a while... We seem to be sitting in no-mans land where it could go either way, but not very far in either direction

Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.3942 London session was very dull with little movement. The US Unemployment Claims in 20 minutes timemay spark the market up

Edit 11.45am NY time Market at 1.3944 The market has been trying to crack down through the 1.3900 mark but it has been holding. I would like to see one more movement up above the 1.4000 mark to rescue my A-H soldier at 1.4020 because I also can't shake the intuitive feeling that when we come out of this trading range we have been in for the last 30 days, that the Euro is heading south

Emails

Email 1
Hey Jacko, I was lucky that I kept my AH order at 1.4020 in place. I was planning to get out an hour before the FOMC news, so I was pleasantly surprised by the move from the Swissie news and grabbed 55 pips because I thought that it was a temporary jump down. Six months ago, I would not have seen it that way. Instead I would have thought that the market was going to drop and keep on dropping. Following your trading in the last 11 months has taught me patience and that the market always retraces and to not let the excitement of the moment carry me away. Congratulations... LOL... you had a lucky break on that trade. (Reports of SNB intervention don't come out every day). Every so often, the gods of trading bestow a bonus on traders that we should all gratefully accept as a payback for those times when the market nicks us by a pip.

Email 2
do u think this euro is heading down Yes I think that it is turning down (see the daily charts) but at a very low speed and with lots of deceptive choppiness

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 390

It is 1.05am NY time Wednesday June 24 and the market is at 1.4095

I have an Anti-hedge Sell order at 1.4020. I am waiting for it to become active. It will have a 100 pip TSL.
The big news event for today is the FOMC meeting which is expected to leave rates unchanged.

Edit 3.10am NY time market at 1.4127. The market is really pricing in a lot of belief that either US interest rates will be lowered (highly unlikely) or that Mr Bernanke will announce more Quantitative Easing (the new buzz words for "printing money at an obscene rate").

Edit 5.00am NY time Market at 1.4094 I am removing my A-H order. The market is moving down from 1.4137 and I don't want to be in the trade when the FOMC statement is announced because the spreads will widen dramatically and the huge volatility will take out all the stops on either side. I would recommend that group traders do the same. There is a difference between aggressive trading and suicidal trading. (Note The FOMC announcements is the biggest mover of the market in regard to News items...150 pip moves in minutes is the norm. Widening spreads, enormous slippage and huge volatility in minutes is a death sentence for traders accounts....Refer to post #7 on the first page of the Jacko's House of Pleasure and Pain thread...Trading the News)

Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.4032. As stated earlier, I have removed my A-H order until after the FOMC announcement. We have just seen a sizable drop in the Euro on speculation of SNB intervention of the Swiss franc. The FOMC announcement will be bigger.

Edit 2.05pm NY time Market at 1.3990 The market has drifted down to 1.3990 in readiness for the FOMC statement in ten minutes

Edit 2.25pm NY time Market at 1.3960 The market has fallen on FOMC and i s looking to go lower.

Emails

Email 1
Wayne, when I look at a chart showing the 4 hr timeframe, I see the market higher on the right side of the chart & lower on the left. That would seem to indicate that we have an uptrend. Yes, but that uptrend support line was broken on June 15 Is it because that support lines continue to be broken the reason that you believe we are in a bearish situation/trend? yes & does the fact that we broke the resistance line today change your opinion? the break of the Resistance line is a warning sign of a potential change...I would want to see it drop back to the line for confirmation , then move upwards ....then I would say that the trend had changed



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 389

It is 1.05am NY time Tuesday June 23 and the market is at 1.3855

The market has been doing nothing during Asian session today.
I am still wanting to go short at 1.3950. The trend is becoming more clear that it is downwards.
Those who took the aggressive trade yesterday did well. I was hoping that it would go higher to my 1.3950 but the aggressive traders had to be content with a high of 1.3901. I had a difficulty trading against the trend so I left it but am feeling more adventurous as the market shows its direction.
Will be back for London open.

Edit 3.30am NY time Market at 1.3880 London has taken the market up to as high as 1.3893 but seems to be having trouble getting past the 1.3900 area. I will be in a meeting for the next 90 minutes, so I will check as soon as I get out

Edit 5.20am NY time Market at 1.3932 Looking to SELL at 1.3950 or higher. I will SMS as I SELL

Edit 5.42am NY time Decided to be aggressive and I sold at 1.3925. I have a 100 pip TSL.

Edit 8.30 am NY time Market at 1.3985 I am currently paying the price for my impatience. My original strategy of Selling at 1 3950 or higher would have given me a better entry price, but I now have to play out the current trade. My TSL has been moved to 1.4020 (which is 100 pips above the lowest point since I opened the trade).
I am now letting the trade play itself out

Edit 9.05am NY time I have just been stopped out at 1.4020. I will now be relying on the A-H strategy to rescue this trade and return me to a profit.
Under the rules of A-H strategy, I have to wait until the market reaches 1.4070 (which is 50 pips past my Stop out price). At that time, I will then place a Sell order at 1.4020. When the market has finished rising and starts to fall, it will then pick up the A-H Sell on the way back down and continue downwards.

Edit 12.10pm NY time The market has hit 1.4070 triggering an A-H order.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 388

It is 1.00am NY time Monday June 22 and the market is at 1.3915

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.

The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4177 (june 11) and 1.4011 (June 19) . we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4000

The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3747 (June15) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3850.

The 50% Fib line The previous 50% fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880 was hit on June 15 so we now move to the next possible 50%b Fib on a longer time frame. The next 50% Fib of note is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at 1.3650

I am a SELLER again this week. I believe that the break of the previous 4H support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) is a good indicator that we are in a bearish market.

I am a SELLER at 1.3950. (I am not sure enough that it will get up to 1.4000 so I am prepared to take the higher risk trade at 1.3950 or higher).

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3860 The market has bounced off the Support line at 1.3850 in late Asian trade. It is too low for me to be interested in selling at these levels. I will wait for it to get back in the better value area of 1.3950 or higher.


Edit 8.30am NY time Market at 1.3830 The market is sitting at just below the Support line. There are no news items today... so the market will be pushed around by the bigger traders. At these levels (1.3830) it is too low to sell and the bias is to trade the more risky counter trend buy trade back up to 1.3950 or higher.
The aggressive trade is the buy at 1.3850 or lower

Edit 11.55am NY time Market at 1.3850 The bigger traders have pushed it around up to 1.3901 and then all the way back down to 1.3850. I would not be surprised to see them take it down some more and then bring it back to around this level again by the end of trade

Edit 5.20pm NY time Market at 1.3855 As expected the market is back to where it started in the US session

Emails

Email 1
Do you give importance to pattern formations like double tops, head and shoulders, tripple tops, etc? Very little importance...the are not sufficiently robust to trade off ....more for background information
What about the candle formations like hammer, shooting star, hanging man, engulfing, etc? No importance at all...they are the toys of amateur traders
Do you always place the long/sell orders by looking into the 1 hour time frame if using 4 hour time frame as the setup chart? No not really. the 4H gives me the approximate number and then I round it up or down depending on the closeness to the nearest round number...The round number is more important than the exact number specified by the smaller time frame charts



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 387

It is 1.30am NY time Friday June 19 and the market is at 1.3945

I can't believe that I hit the 1.4000 target to the exact pip and still missed out on profits this week. Congratulations to those that got filled at 1.4000. I have now cancelled my order. (That target has now been hit.)

I have decided that while my results this year have been reasonable ....1381 pips since the inception of the Fund in Aug and a 40+ % annualised return using a maximum risk of only 2% per trade... they have been lacklustre in the last month or two.

As an excuse, I can only offer that
Firstly, I have been taking a VERY conservative approach so that the risk to YOUR capital was minimized, and
Secondly if you take a look at the weekly chart you can easily see that the market has been EXTREMELY volatile, choppy annd dangerous to your dollars and
Thirdly, I have been giving directions and targets in the blog of where I think the market is going so that the more "adventurous" and "risk-oriented" of you can take advantage of those directions to guide you in your trades (And those more "adventurous" traders who are using my targets and buying and selling based on those targets are doing very, very well).

I have decided to go aggressive in my trading from next week. I will still be trading primarily with the trend but if I see some shorter term counter trend opportunities, I will be trading those as well. I will be trading at all hours in the trading range, but staying primarily within the London open to mid US session.

On a personal note, early this month I wrote this in this blog:
This is a special post. I have been annoyed by a post on Forex Factory (by a non-member called fxterrapin and pipspimp) making wild allegations and inferring that my trading is in the red. Now I do NOT intend to post my results on Forex Factory as they include my personal trades and I don't want my personal income details posted on a Forum. (it is no great stretch to multiply the pips times the number of standard contracts that I trade times USD$10 per pip).

I am appalled that I have just seen a post where one member of this group has published a small segment of the results of my PERSONAL trades on a forum which were "incomplete and totally misleading" in relation to the annual performance and made with the clear intention of degrading my work here with each of you.
I have absolutely no problem with anyone posting their own individual personal results on a forum. But please have some respect my right to privacy to MY trade results.

I respect the privacy of each of you and would never divulge ANY of your details to anyone else (and certainly not publish them on an open forum started by a moron).
I consider that I have been very open regarding all aspects of my trading including giving each of you full and open access to the performance of the private Managed Fund.
Just please be intelligent and respectful to me.

Edit 7.45am NY time I am taking some time off to spend with Mrs Jackson. I won't be trading today. Congratulations to those of you who went long up to 1.4000 and those of you who went short at 1.4000. I will be back on Monday



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 386

It is 1.10am NY time Thursday June 18 and the market is at 1.3937

The market is edging up to my SELL at 1.4000. It has reached as high as 1.3984 and has pulled back again into tight 40 pip range from 1.3975 to 1.3935. My fish is circling closer.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3957. Getting closer......

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3920 The market has reached as high as 1.3990 but has pulled back to its current price. I am hoping that there will be one more move up and that I have not missed the turning point by just 10 pips. Letting the market play itself out for the next hour or two before making a decision.

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.3978 The market has touched 1.4000 but I have not been filled. I am handing over to Mark (an ex-broker who works with me). We may or may not be a SELLER at exactly 1.4000. We think it now may bounce up above it and Mark is hoping to get a better price for us. But we will definitely be a seller at 1.4000 or better. I have no problem with the 1.4000 target

Edit 7.00pm NY time I can't believe that I hit the 1.4000 target to the exact pip and still missed out on profits this week because of the spread. I have decided that while my results this year have been good ....1381 pips since the inception of the Fund in Aug and a 40+ % annualised return using a risk of only 2% per trade... they have been lacklustre in the last month or two.

As an excuse, I can only offer that
Firstly, I have been taking a VERY conservative approach so that the risk to YOUR capital was minimized, and
Secondly if you take a look at the weekly chart you can easily see that the market has been EXTREMELY volatile, choppy annd dangerous to your dollars and
Thirdly, I have been giving directions and targets in the blog of where I think the market is going so that the more "adventurous" and "risk-oriented" of you can take advantage of those directions to guide you in your trades (And those more "adventurous" traders who are using my targets and buying and selling based on those targets are doing very, very well).

I have decided to go aggressive in my trading from next week. I will still be trading primarily with the trend but if I see some shorter term counter trend opportunities, I will be trading those as well. I will be trading at all hours in the trading range, but staying primarily within the London open to mid US session.



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 385

It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 17 and the market is at 1.3868

The market did not reach my target of 1.4000 yesterday. The closest it got to the target was 1.3932. However, in the current market where swings of 200 pips per day are common, I would rather buy or sell at the extremes rather than have my Stop Losses taken out by those extremes. The market is currently moving up again so, like a patient fisherman, I am waiting for the market to strike at my target. My SELL order at 1.4000 is still in place.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3912 Market is slowly moving up to my target. The fish is swimming around my bait). I expect my order to get filled today

Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.3840 This market has been stuck in a 100 pip range from 1.3820 to 1.3920 for the last 32 hours and going nowhere. I am expecting NY session will give us more direction

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market is at 1.3868 Market is still tightly ranging but I am still hopeful of getting filled

Emails

Email 1
Jacko, If the Support line turned Resistance was at 1.3955, why didn't you place your order at 1.3950? Firstly, because 1.4000 is a much bigger target for the boys on the institutional trading desks (who are basically bored all day and it brightens up their day and gives them a little excitement that they can cajole and push a market to a big target...then they lose interest...LOL).
Secondly, the current volatility is moving the market in bigger swings , so I want to have a buffer of around 50 pips to cover the current volatility swings and
thirdly, I have a responsibility to make money for the Fund but more importantly, I also have a duty of care not to lose money. (Mrs Jacko expects the same on our private trading account !!!!)
Fourthly,The point is really moot anyway because even if I had placed my trade at 1.3950, I still would not have been filled. The next question is whether I would have placed a SELL order as low as 1.3900? The answer is a strong NO, because I saw that level as to low for a SELL.
Finally, the target of 1.4000 was not hit.......YET !!! It doesn't mean that it won't get hit tomorrow



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 384

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday June 16 and the market is at 1.3805

The market is too low to sell at these prices. And I would not buy against the falling 4H trend. It is looking very oversold from yesterdays trading. I would expect that the market will gradually work its way back up to the Support line now turned resistance line at 1.3955 before heading back down again.
In hindsight I regret not selling yesterday, but I was caught some weeks ago by a Geithner speech that caused the Euro to shoot straight up and blow out a SL. It cost me pips and I was not prepared to be caught again.
However the market is definitely moved into bear territory, so we are looking for a reaction move back up to sell at a good price

Edit 3.20amNY time Market at 1.3860 The market is gradually working its way back up to the Support line now turned resistance line at 1.3955 .

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3908 I will be looking to sell the market at 1.3955 or higher today. Given the volatility in the market lately I will be looking at the high end of the range (towards 1.4000) to be the sell price. Very little news today (just Building Permit numbers and Producer Price Index)

Edit 8.20am NY time I have just placed a Stop Limit order to SELL at 1.4000. It will have a 100 pip TSL

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.3885 Waiting for order to be hit....


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 383

It is 1.00am NY time Monday June 15 and the market is at 1.3945

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4177 (june 11). we can see that the Resistance line is currently at 1.4130
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3955.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at at 1.3880

As stated last week, I believe that the market is showing weakness and the downward bias is becoming more pronounced. We are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days.

I am keen to trade this week. The calendar is clear of any major news events (TIC data today at 9.00am...BUT BEWARE ...Mr Geithner is speaking at 10.00am...The past record is that when Geithner speaks, the USD drops 100-150 pips ...the Euro rises 100-150 pips...within minutes of him speaking).
I will be watching to sell on any spike from his speech, so be prepared for an SMS at around 10.15am today.

Edit 1.20am NY time Market at 1.3945 Market at has dropped just below the Support line at 1.3955 but I believe the advantage of selling at this point is far outweighed by the potential damage that Mr Geithner can do when he speaks at 10.00am this morning. However, Some traders may wish to sell now at 1.3945 but close out before 10.00am, then sell again on any spike up

Edit 3.20am NY time Market has hit the 1.3880 Fib line and stalled. I am hoping to see a bounce to 1.4000 some time today to sell at 1.4000 or above

Edit 7.55am NY time Market at 1.3856 The market is sitting just under the 1.3880 Fib line. I am looking to sell after Mr Geithner speaks.
By the way, I have no beef with Mr Geithner but the Wall St boys must have a real dislike for the guy, because EVERY time Geithner speaks, the big traders just tank the USD and it sends the Euro up 100-150 pips. A couple of weeks ago Geithner made a speech in China at around 7.00am in the morning NY time and the USD was trashed by the traders even at that hour.
I am watching today with interest. Hopefully, the "Geithner effect" will not have worn off...

Edit 10.15am NY time Market at 1.3850. The market has barely moved from Geithners speech . However the market is too low to sell at this price. And I would not buy against the falling 4H trend. It is looking very oversold from Friday and todays trading.
I would expect that the market will gradually work its way back up to the Support line now turned resistance line at 1.3955 in the next 48 hours, before heading back down again

Edit 11.45am NY time Market at 1.3795 Market still dropping but is getting way oversold without a pull back...Caution

Emails

Email 1
Hello Wayne, I am one of your newer members. I have been reading FF and there are traders who are trading from your signals and I am getting some of them but I am not getting them all. Can you check my number Ok, I will send you a test SMS message to check your number but I think it is more likely that the traders you are talking about are some of the more "adventurous" traders who are trading off my discussions here in the blog. They are logging in two to three times a day and trading off the directions that I am talking about in the blog

I only send SMSes to notify about MY trades.

However, I don't ask people to follow only my trades. ,...most of the group trade my trades PLUS their own. Now some traders in the group are using my trading "experience" to assist them in giving a direction for their own trades. And some are doing VERY well.
My blog is reasonably consistent. I post at (approximately) 1.00am NY time (Sydney last hour), 3.00am NY time(London open) 8.00am NY time (New York opening) and 12.30pm NY time (NY lunch time)
Remember, I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see when and what I am trading and why.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 382

It is 1.15am NY time Friday June 12 and the market is at 1.4092

I am actually looking forward to putting this week behind me. It started badly and got worse...It must mean I am going to have a good week next week (It is rare that I have two bad weeks in a row).
The market has reached up to the Resistance line at 1.4130, broke through it as far as 1.4177, then quickly dropped back below the Resistance line and has been moving slowly down. Although the market has tentatively broken the Resistance line, I believe that the market is showing weakness and that we are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days.

On the news calendar, the big event is the G8 meeting this weekend attended by finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 nations - Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US - with the addition of Russia. It will no doubt be a love-in where they say all is well with the world, but look for conflicting statements between Russia, Germany and the US

Edit 3.45am NY time Market at 1.4081 London has taken the market down as low as 1.4054. We may, I repeat may. see a drop in the Euro (rise in the USD) today prior to the G8 meeting on the weekend. The US would not want to go into that meeting and be faced with criticism that it is trying to weaken its own currency for political purposes.
On the 4H chart we are seeing a turn in the market from a strong bull run in the Euro to a series of rapid drops followed by slow drives back up.
Again, I believe that the market is showing weakness and that we are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days.

Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.4002 As the US session is about to start, the Euro has gravitated back to the 1.4000 mark (again). As discussed earlier today, I believe that the market is showing weakness and that we are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days. As you know. I don't like to open a trade on Friday US sessions as the market loses liquidity after lunch and I certainly don't recommend holding any positions over the weekend especially with a G8 meeting taking place

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4034 After dropping to 1.3934 in early US session, the market has moved back up. I would not be surprised to see the market end at around the 1.4000 mark, in readiness for a continued move down early next week


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 381

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday June 11 and the market is at 1.4050

As discussed yesterday, the market is gyrating round the 1.4000 mark due to no major significant news events. (the Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims are not usually major market movers, though they will give a direction for the rest of the week).

I will be looking for potential trades from todays price movement

Edit 3.10am NY time Market at 1.4011 As stated yesterday in the 12.15pm edit, the market is looking choppy. I stated that it will probably move around the 1.4000 mark plus or minus 50 pips. That is between 1.3950 to 1.4050. (So far, it has moved between 1.3914 and 1.4058)

I am looking for the direction after it moves out of that area. It now looks that it will be a move downwards.

Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.3974. It is still moving around the 1.4000 mark but the downward bias is becoming more pronounced. The 4h Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) is sitting at 1.3900. The Resistance line from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4266 (june 5) is sitting at 1.4130

Edit 8.45am NY time Market at 1.3980. There has been very little initial impact from the Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims numbers.. The market is still in no-mans land between Support and Resistance and is still looking for a direction.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4085 The market has moved up towards the Resistance line at 1.4130, reaching s high as 1.4111 before moving back down to its current price. The Euro has shown little intention to break out of this narrow range so far. And this narrow range offers very little trading opportunities

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 380

It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 10 and the market is at 1.4095

The last trade shows how fickle the market can be for a trader.
I was stopped out by only 6 pips. I know we shouldn't dwell on the "woulda, shoulda, coulda's " but if that trade had not been stopped out by the current increased volatility, we would be 194 pips in profit (1.4095 - 1.3901= 194 pips ) at the present time.
No excuses.... but the market can be a real pain when that happens...LOL

I am staying on the sidelines to clear my head from the frustration of watching this trade. I don't want to rush in and get caught with a revenge trade and buy at an elevated level. I am looking again for another retracement

Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.4080 market has dropped from high of 1.4118 to 1.4057 (61 pips) but not enough to interest me enough to jump back in

Edit 8.25am NY time Market at 1.4082 The market has been very choppy in London trading chopping between 1.4070 and 1.4140 a couple of times. Not a great deal of important news items on the calendar this week, so the choppiness may be around for a couple of days. Still on the sidelines, watching for an opportunity.

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4000 The market is still looking choppy. It has fallen as low as 1.3951 and will probably move around the 1.4000 mark plus or minus 50 pips. That is between 1.3950 to 1.4050. I am looking for the direction after it moves out of that area.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 379

It is 1.30am NY time Tuesday June 9 and the market is at 1.3881

My Anti-Hedge buy order at 1.3901 was triggered at 12.25pm yesterday. The A-H has a 100 pip TSL. The market has been as high as 1.3936 so the TSL is now sitting at 1.3836.
I am now letting the trade play itself out.

Edit 4.00am NY time Market at 1.3940 My A-H soldier is moving up slowly. The market has been as high as 1.3965 so I have moved my TSL to 1.3865. However, the market is choppy at the moment so I may look to close this out early and get back in again later. If I do that, I will SMS as I close the trade.

Edit 6.45am NY time Market at 1.3870 The Euro has dropped as a result of German industrial output unexpectedly declining in April. Production dropped 1.9 percent from March when it rose 0.3 percent. This had a disappointing effect of taking out my TSL at 1.3865 for a 36 pip loss. This has been a one of my worse weeks in trading with two back to back losses, including an A-H trade.

Edit 7.15am NY time Market at 1.3887. I have just watched the market move only as low as 1.3856 to take out my TSL by just 9 pips then reversing back up. It has annoyed me.
I have been reviewing the recent volatility measures (the Average Trading Range or ATR) and have noticed that we have had another surge in volatility. Prior to August last year it was extremely rare to see a trading range of more than 200 pips (and a range of 120 to 150 pips was the norm).
Last Friday June 4 the ATR was 334 pips. ..
As recently as March 17, the ATR was 511 pips...(almost equal to the record of 540 pips set at the peak of the panic of the Financial crisis on Dec 17)
I intend to review the parameters of my exits over the next day or two, to minimize these whipsaws affecting my trades.

Edit 7.45am NY time Grrr...The market has bounced straight back up to 1.3960...now I am really annoyed.

Edit 9.00am NY time Market at 1.3988. Beware...WARNING Geithner is due to testify on his department's budget before the Senate Appropriations Committee at 10.30am NY time

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4038 Market has moved higher. I am now waiting on the sidelines looking for the next trade opportunity


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 378

It is 1.45am NY time Monday June 8 and the market is at 1.3974.

As outlined in yesterdays (Sunday) message I have bought at 1.3940 and again at 1.3992. It is a messy trade caused by the very thin trading conditions in the early Asian session due to an Australian Bank holiday.
My TSL is currently set at 1.3901 for ALL of the trades.

Edit 3.45am NY time My two sets of buys have just been closed out. I had bought at 1.3940 (40%) and 1.3992 (60%) for an average of 1.3971. My TSL closed them out at 1.3901 for a 70 pip loss.

Edit 4.45am NY time I am waiting to see if the market hits 1.3851....(the market low so far is only 1.3853). If it hits 1.3851, it will trigger an A-H trade. (An AH trade is triggered when the market has moved 50 pips past the SL...it triggers a pending buy at the point at which I was stopped out...that is 1,3901).

Edit 6.00am NY time Market at1.3827. The USD is staging a big show of strength on the back of the NFP numbers on Friday. Either the strength will continue to take it down or the market will start to see that the Euro is oversold and bounce back. The market has now triggered the A-H. I now have a pending buy order at 1.3901

Edit 10.25am NY time Market at 1.3848. The USD is still showing strength of effects of that strong NFP number. My AH buy order at 1.3901 is still waiting to be activated.

I have been watching this market for over 18 hours today...I am going to hand over to Mark to watch things for me while I get an early night. It is 10.30pm here in HK and I have been going since 4.00am this morning

Edit 5.30pm NY time My AH buy order at 1.3901 was triggered at 12.25pm. The A-H has a 100 pip TSL. The merket has been as high as 1.3928 so the TSL is now sitting at 1.3828

Emails

Email 1
The current reluctance of the EUR/USD to do your bidding and retreat to 1.4000 puts me in mind of the time-honoured injunction that the market will behave as it fancies, which is not necessarily how we want or expect it to behave. LOL...Yes, it certainly does that
I'm impressed by your stoic faith that it will retrace to 1.4000, but, aren't we in danger of falling into this trap? Before you decide on ANY trade, you as a trader, must make a decision as to where you think the market is going.... That is necessary for any trading decision...
I had made a decision that , based on the technical clues that I could see, that the market was going to 1.4000. ....as it turned out, the market did go to 1.4000 and stayed there from 10.00am Friday through to 1.15am today ....but then the effects of a better than expected NFP kicked it lower today

Email 2

I remember you using the term "casino money" and seemingly trading more risky if you are not exposing your initial funds but rather using the gains made already. Again is this still viable or has the volatility removed this option as well due to the higher risk off loss? If anything, the volatility is driving experienced traders to reduce the size of their risk per trade. I personally prefer the option of trading less (more selectively) but maintaining the same risk per trade. But also remember that the "reduction of risk" is not just isolated to forex trading....EVERY industry in the world has been affected. NO industry is able to grow as fast as they could when credit was freely available.

In our industry, we still have access to enormous amounts of funds through leverage. In any other business or industry the reduction of freely available credit is causing businesses to go bankrupt. We are very fortunate that we are individually in control of our own risk. We are NOT being restricted from credit by the brokers

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 377

It is 4.00pm NY time Sunday June 7 and the market is not yet open.

The market finally reached my target of 1.4000 on Friday and, as a result of a better than expected NFP numbers, overshot to as low as 1.3932. As you know, I do not take trades on Fridays, especially after lunch due to low liquidity. But I am looking to buy today. It is important to note that the Sydney (Australia) market is closed today for a Bank holiday, so we may need to wait two hours until the Asian markets open to get any guide on price action.


I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame to find an optimal buy point. I am wanting to buy so the critical line is the Support line
Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3422 (May 17) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3910. However, my buy original buy target was 1.4000 so anything less than 1.4000 is a bonus.

The 50% line The earlier 50% fib line from 1.3792 to 1.4338 (at 1.4065) has been broken so we now move to the next potential target which is the 50% fib from 1.3422 to 1.4338 at 1.3880

I am a buyer at 1.4000 or less with an intent to capitalize on the NFP overreaction to hopefully collect my lots under 1.3950. My two Support levels underneath my buys are 1.3910 and 1.3880 (see above). I will be using a 100 pip TSL

I will SMS as I buy them.

Edit 7.30pm NY time Market is very thin. I have bought some lots at 1.3940 but not a lot of them . The market moved straight above after I bought. I am still waiting to get some more.

Edit 10.45pm NY time I have just bought at 1.3992

Edit 11.10pm NY time Market at 1.3987. This has been a scrappy trade so far. I bought some lots earlier at 1.3940 but then the market moved higher without all my orders bein filled.
I was hoping that it would come back to 1.3940 to get the rest of the order but it didn't happen. I waited until it got close to the 1.4000 area and was concerned that if it broke 1.4000 then I would only have the 1.3940's so I bought again at 1.3992
The market has been as high as 1.4001 so my TSL on ALL the trades is now at 1.3901.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 376

It is 1.45am NY time Friday June 5 and the market is at 1.4185

I have been chasing 1.4000 all week as a buy but the market is not being very co-operative. The low so far has been only 1.4069. I am still of the belief that we are in a short term top.
But the 1.4000 wil be a strong support ...it is a big round number , it is close to a 50% Fib (from 1.3792 and 1.4338) and it is on a 4H trend Support line from 1.3422 (May 17) and touching 1.3792 (May 28) which is currently at 1.4000.
The news event for the day is the Non Farm Employment change (NFP) and the Unemployment Claims numbers at 8.30am. Beware if you have any open positions as these numbers cause high volatility and SL get eaten easily

Edit 5.20am NY time Market at 1.4185 London has taken the market down marginally but I wouldn't expect to see too much action until 8.30am with the NFP numbers. Maybe it is just my sensibilities but I am still hugely offended when commentators are saying that the expected number of people who have lost the jobs/livelihood in the last month is expected to be ONLY 520,000. (Thats half a MILLION workers ...in a month !!)

Edit 8.35am NY time NFP reduces to 345k and the USD falls???!!! and Euro shoots to 1.4266 ???/!!! ... Retracement coming !!

Edit 9.02am NY time market now at 1.4090. That was a real "fade the market" trade if ever I saw one...The fall in USD/rise of the Euro was totally irrational. Anyone trading the NFP (before the announcement) is way braver than me. My 1.4000 price will be there for me on Monday

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3990 . The market has arrived and stabilized at my target of 1.4000. I will be a buyer on Monday (unless some major issue occurs on the weekend).

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 375

It is 1.05am NY time Thursday June 4 and the market is at 1.4153

My target area for a buy still stands at 1.4000. I still believe that we are in a short term top and that we will see 1.4000 soon. We are in a bull market but it is getting toppy. Furthermore, it is a market that is likely to change quickly and often. The reason I say that is because we are STILL in the throes of the financial crisis.

I would like each of you to quickly take a look at the Weekly chart over 300 periods. (If your platform doesn't extend easily to 300 periods, go to Dailyfx.com and click on the EUR/USD live rates and when the chart appears click on "Time Scale" and then click on "weekly") As can be seen, the world changed dramatically in early August 2008. We all stood on the financial edge and stared into the abyss.
We are still in that dramatic UP and DOWN momentum as the world financial system attempts to regain its balance. It is our job to be very selective in our trades and not to get crushed by the remnants of the volatility.

Edit 3.45am NY time Market at 1.4226 The market rose during late late Asian trading and those damn Brits have taken it slightly higher (from 1.4210 to 1.4234). I am not a buyer at these levels.

Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.4094 The market is heading down to the target of 1.4000. The market has been as low as 1.4069 and 1.4000 is within sight. I will be watching it as it goes to 1.4000 as I want to see if I can buy it at a bargain (less than 1.4000) and also I want to buy as it is moving back upwards.

Edit 9.10am NY time Market at 1.4171 Trichet is talking up the Euro ....but it won't last. We will see 1.4000 today

Edit 11.50am NY time Market at 1.4187 This 1.4000 mark is like the young lady I tried to date many, many years ago when I was in my late teens. She was very elusive and hard to get hold of ...


Emails

Email 1
From Aug 2005 to Jul 2008, EUR/USD was on a clear uptrend, and any down moves during this period were treated as retracements that provided great opportunities to buy EUR/USD 'on the cheap' in anticipation of its continued upward move after the retracements were over. However, after July 2008, EUR/USD price has new characteristics:
(a) It has become much more volatile (daily range became very much higher). Yes...volatility increased some 400%
(b) More importantly, it has become difficult for traders to determine a true long term trend. Trends seemed to change every few weeks. Yes
Just after traders waited patiently to 'confirm' that a downtrend was in place, it suddenly changed to uptrend in subsequent weeks. yes
Then when traders thought that 'EUR/USD uptrend is here again', it changed to downtrend. So how do we avoid falling into the situation of "Ok, uptrend is here, we should go long", only to see all our Buy positions killed by downtrend. Move to shorter time frames or stay with the longer times frame but increase the size of the SL....We took the option of moving from using the Daily charts to using the 4H charts and becoming much more selective in our trades
And when we start to Sell (because we think downtrend is here), we see our Sell positions killed by an uptrend again? The volatility has made it more difficult, but traders need to learn to adapt to the changed circumstances. Also, the volatility was never going to remain at those extreme levels, so it was a matter of also waiting it out. And if you were going to trade, you had to be very, very selective. We hunkered down and became very selective and were still able to pump out reasonably high profits. At the time, our brokers were advising us that the mortality rate of traders was extremely high, even with their clients who had been with them for years.
The DailyFX.com writers were even advising all clients on their website to significantly reduce their risk rate (because their broking division was getting sick of mopping up the blood of traders).
Or has market evolved so drastically since July 2008 that it is now impossible to avoid such situations? Certainly not...we are traders..we just need to be pragmatic and adapt to the market situation. I am looking forward to the market settling right back down so we can all turn up our levels of more risk trades...but my first rule is: Do NOT lose money. The second rule is: Patience. This market will still be around long after you and I are gone from this earth. The wonderful aspect of capitalism is that it is self correcting and the volatility will be gone much, much, earlier than you think
Having said all that, this is still the best business on the planet. Be very selective in your trades and don't take unnecessary and silly risks and you will still pump out excellent returns. Certainly better than any other investment that I know.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 374

It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 3 and the market is at 1.4313

The bull has continued to move up marginally in Asian session. As stated yesterday evening, with the wonderful advantage of hindsight, it looks as though I have held too strongly to the belief that it would drop back to the 1.4000 (which was a solid 50% Fib on a strong time frame and is a big round number and is a short term 4H trend line) and waiting to buy at that level.
It is time to admit that I may be wwwwrong and look at the situation again.

Using the 4H charts with 300 periods, we are able to see the:
Support line If we take the short term view from 1.3422 (May 17) and touching 1.3792 (May 28) it is currently at 1.4000.
Even if we take the very shorte time view and use the Support line from just 1.3792 (May 28) and touching 1.4101 (June 2) we still have a Support line only as high as 1.4200.

Resistance line. However, because the market has moved up so quickly, we have no reference on the 4H charts for a Resistance line. To find that we need to move out to the Daily time frame.
If we connnect up the highs from 1.4866 (Sept 21 2008) and 1,4718 (Dec 17, 2008) we can see that the resistance line stands at around 1.4500 today.

However, the potential for getting hit by a significant retracement very soon is getting higher and higher. Although I am missing some of the potential upside now, I am prepared to wait until I get a satisfactory retracement.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4194. The market has come back to as low as 1.4151 and I am still prepared to wait for 1.4000 before I buy.

Emails

Email 1
the username and password you give for accessing the managed fund blog are JacksonFortress etc which is wrong: for some reason google/blogger passwords/usernames are case-sensitive, meaning it should be all lower case letters. You may want to make the correction. Ok Thanks for that....I am a techno moron... I will fix it

Email 2

How do you determine that the volitality have subsided? There is a thing on your charts called the ATR or Average Trading Range. If you set that to Daily and then to 1, it will show you the ATR of each day. You will then see the huge increase (400%) in volatility late last year. Alternatively, a simpler method is to simply look at a daily chart over 300 days and see the huge daily bars starting in Aug last year

Email 3

I am also very curious how long do you spend on the charts before making a decision 15 minutes and what affects you when you are making a decision like a big bullish candle? I don't use candles...I use simple bar charts . What i do is each day I pull up my 300 period 4H chart. I place one Support Line and one Resistance line and the 50% fib on the latest 4H high and low. The S&R lines show me the possible range for the day and the 50% fib gives me the target that it will try to hit. That is all I need to make my trade decisions

Email 4
I have been observing price actions when prices approach trendlines. Of course, prices can behave in only two ways: (1) Break the trendlines (resulting in breakout); or (2) 'Respect' the trendlines by moving back to where it comes from. yes
I face difficulty in deciding whether price will breakout or move back when it touches/approaches the trendlines. Naturally, I can 'see and tell' the outcome on hindsight. But 'hindsight' cannot help me make money in trading :). I like to watch how the price approaches the trendline....(.Lets assume an UP bounce situation ) ..Most times (approx 75%) it will bounce up off the line..... but if each time it bounces up off it, the rise is not as high as the previous bounce, then you can be reasonably certain that it will break the line after approximately 2-4 bounces. The question is how to trade this: When the size of the bounce up is less than 50 pips, place a sell close to the trend line but with a 100 pip SL
Contrary to standard practice, I also prefer to place my sell ABOVE the trend line to ensure that I get all my trades in place rather than just underneath where most traders place their trades (and often miss being filled because the price runs too fast past their order for them to get filled...)


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 373

It is 1.10am NY time Tuesday June 2 and the market is at 1.4161

As stated yesterday, these levels (especially over 1.4200) are too high for me to enter on the buy side. I am still waiting for a retracement to the 1.4000 area.
Those adventurous traders who yesterday morning went on the short side with the aim of my target of 1.4000 are still doing well. (See the Edit 8.35am Yesterday) They are mostly all in above 1.4200 mark.
(Note As this is not a trade that I entered because it is not with the bull trend, no SMSes were sent.......I only send SMSes regarding MY trades)

Edit 3.50am NY time The Euro is slowly edging itself down to my target area of 1.4000. London has taken it down to 1.4101 and I think we will see my target hopefully hit later today.

Edit 8.15 am NY time The market at 1.4238 The Euro has jumped up on Russian President Madvedev talking about a new international exchange currency with Brazil , Russia, India and China (BRIC). However, it is nothing new and has been raised before. The more adventurous now have another opportunity to ride it down to 1.4000.

Edit 12.10pm NY time The market is at 1.4280. It looks like the bull still has more life left in it yet. I am still waiting for it to take a rest and drop back so I can buy in the dip. The current level is too expensive for me to buy in at these levels. Even though the market is still moving up, the downside risk of retracement is too high at these levels.

Edit 7.25pm NY time The market is at 1.4300 .The bull continued to move up in afternoon trade. With the wonderful advantage of hindsight, it looks as though I have held too strongly to the belief that it would drop back to the 1.4000 (which was a solid 50% Fib on a strong time frame and is a big round number and 4H is the trend line). It is time to admit that I may be wwwwrong and look at the situation again.




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 372

It is 1.45am NY time Monday June 1 and the market is at 1.4130

Today is the start of a new day, the start of a new week and the start of a new month.
It is also the start of a new era. It is expected that GM will today be put into bankruptcy. It will be withdrawn from the DJIA. It is a sad day in American history to see one of the giants of the American success story of the last 100 years being felled and on its knees before collapsing completely. As Americans we should all be ashamed that we have allowed this to happen. We have allowed successive Administrations divert the wealth and success of the USA into futile Trillion dollar wars and other follies.

The Euro has moved up to as high as 1.4167 (at 12.30pm May 29) from a low of 1.3792 (at 12.30am May 28). Looking at that, it is very reasonable to assume that the market will attempt a retracement to the 50% mark of 1.3982 (rounded to 1.4000). At that point, I would expect the bull market to resume its upward march.

Edit 3.15am NY time The market is at 1.4200. The market has moved up quickly in London trading. These levels are too rich for me. I will be waiting for a retracement to get in. The risk at entering at these levels is too high for me. However, as always, you have the right to make a trading decision different to mine.

Edit 7.10am NY time The market went to 1.4245 in very thin Euro trading (the Swiss, German and French banks are closed all day). The US market has theISM Manufacturing numbers out at 10.00am but they are not usually real market movers. The announcement of a formal GM bankruptcy may have an effect. I would not be surprised to see the market fall back on the long awaited announcement

Edit 8.35am NY time The market is at 1.4213. The Euro has moved up to as high as 1.4245 (at 6.00am June 1) from a low of 1.3792 (at 12.30am May 28). Looking at that, it is very reasonable to assume that the market will attempt a retracement to the 50% mark of 1.4018 (rounded to 1.4000) soon . At that point, I would expect the bull market to resume its upward march. But the adventurous traders may want to look at 1.4000 as a target

Edit 12.30pm NY time Market has been as low as 1.4147 but has bounced up again to 1.4200. But this market is looking heavy and it should go lower in the short term. The 1.4000 area is still a target



A Special Post

This is a special post. I have been annoyed by a post on Forex Factory (by a non-member called fxterrapin and pipspimp) making wild allegations and inferring that my trading is in the red. Now I do NOT intend to post my results on Forex Factory as they include my personal trades and I don't want my personal income details posted on a Forum. (it is no great stretch to multiply the pips times the number of standard contracts that I trade times USD$10 per pip).

Some of you are new here and dont have a full history of my trades as I traded them because you were not members at the time. The purpose of this post is to bring you up to speed with my trading results prior to you joining.
As some of you you may know, I started a Managed Fund (Jackson Fortress Asset Management Limited) on August 8, 2008 to trade on behalf of Mark's investors.
That Fund trades exactly the same trades as my personal trades. And those trades are the same as I post here for both the first and second groups.

The Fund has its own blog for the investors which is simply a summary of all my trades (they are not interested in the discussions regarding trading...they just want to see the results in live time). It allows transparency in all my trades and can be checked against each of the entries in this blog.

The address and performance of the Jackson Fortress Fund blog can be seen here:

http://www.jacksonfortressmembers.blogspot.com/
User ID......... jacksonfortressaccess
Password.......jacksonfortress

This is a copy of the latest summary report for the investors from that blog

Summary of Performance for Investors (as at the end of April 2009)

Hi All,

The Fund earned 567 pips over the last Quarter ((Feb -April ) with the majority in April.This is a return of 46.6% annualized for the quarter.

Since the date of the inception of the Fund on 8/08/2008, and the commencement of trading on 8/28/2008, we have accumulated 1421 pips over 245 days. Using the calculations below (see Message ...January 13) , we can see that this is equal to a 42.44% annualized return.

In a time where Funds and investors around the world have pounded to dust and bankruptcy, we (as shown through our Managed Fund) are trading at better than 42%+ return for the year to date.
While this is much, much lower than the returns I have earned over 2006 and 2007, our 42%+ return to date in the 2008/2009 year is much better than the average investment (where the Dow has lost 50%, property has lost approximately 30% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable). Even Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stocks were down 47% at one time.
In a time where hedge Funds have been blown up every day and huge investment banks (Lehmans, Merril Lynch etc) have disappeared and the worlds biggest banks are technically bankrupt.....I am reasonably happy with my "safe" 40+ % annualised return

As I said in late March, I can feel the market coming back to a semblance of stability compared to the unwelcome extremes of volatility we have had in the last months of last year and the first 3 months of 2009. I am keen to make up for that lost time, where I had slowed my trading down and hunkered down to weather the storm.

We have still been achieving very good results to date. But now that the volatility is settling down, it is time to ramp up our trading and go for the super-normal profits. All of our past and current returns have been made using only 2% risk on any trade. If we wanted to increase our return we could marginally increase our risk to 3-4% per trade. However, I don't feel a necessity to do that at the present time and am content to stay with 2% per trade.
The last month (April) was a better month. I expect that it is a better indicator of future trading.