MESSAGES FROM JACKO (MAY 2008) 101 - 110

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 110

It is 12.40am NY time Wednesday May 14 and the market is at 1.5450!! AGAIN !!!!

Edit 9.45am NY time The market is at ....1.5450 !!! Nine hours after initial post above and we are right back there. This market is chewing up the short term traders. Up and down, up and down, just taking out stops. This market is not a nice environment at the moment. A big move is near...

Edit 11.50am NY time Yawn...the market at 1.5456...a MASSIVE 6 pips higher

Emails

Email1
From looking at the prior weekly retracements, it appears that the low is tested once or twice and sometimes a lower low is created, it also appears that the retracements often take at least 2 months before the real move is made to new highs. yes
Since we have not hit the 50% retracement from 1.6019 and we have not hit the weekly trendline, I think it would be likely that at least the trendline would be targeted. Yes...
Do you agree with this logic? Definitely

If you do agree then there should be some nice low entry points available in the 1.5300 area or possibly lower. I am still a stickler for 1.5200

In my view it seems that before I take another long trade in this area 1.5500, I would want the prior 4 hr high broken and then look for a retracement to enter. But I am not sure if 1.5594 or 1.5489 should be considerd the last 4hr high. I think a break of 1.5600 will be a guide that it will be breaking higher, but I think it will hit 1.5200 first

Do you consider the 1.5594 reached on 5/6 the last 4hr high or do you consider the 1.5489 reached on 5/9 to be the last 4hr high?? 1.5594
If 1.5489 is what you consider the last high would you then have to be considered another long entry at 1.5450 since it would be a little over a 50% retracement of the 1.5365 low from yesterday to the 1.5569 high today? I would wait for this market to have more direction

Thanks for your patience with this question, I know it might be difficult to understand what I am asking. It is
not difficult to understand


Email 2 (I wasn't going to post this because it is a fairly personal...but I decided that the calculations are interesting enough to over-ride my personal discomfort)

Does money make money?According to my calculations (you have hinted at the size of your trading pot on the Blog indirectly) given that the last 2 CT trades which went against you represented less that 10% of your overall trading fund then by deduction your trading fund is $2M plus. It is larger than that
Therefore using lot sizes of 200 standard lots at a time you only need to make 500 Pips a year (or less than 50 pips per month) in order to achieve a 50% return on capital for the year!! If my fund was $2M, then 500 pips per annum would represent 50% to me. However the numbers work the same for everybody

Wow ....... is it really this easy ...... or maybe by leaving your brain at the door it really is ....... and is this how the Hedge Funds do it? Or am I missing a major point somewhere here? NO...I have said repeatedly that this is the best business in the world. The key benefits are liquidity, leverage and rapid compounding. The thing that kills everyone is the over-trading. You only need 6-10 good trades a year (and the A-H strategy basically assures that !!!) to make an excellent return
By the way I was not prying into your personal finances ... just making some obvious obersavations based on
information contained in the Blog. No problem

Email 3
Do you use the (Jesse Livermore) probing strategy? No. not really

And then add to positions? Yes after I am about 100 -150 pips in positive for the trade

Is high volatility due to underlying low volume? Yes and no...In times of confusion, the market gets quieter, but more volatile Or does that not matter?

Oh yes , why exactly do you use the 4 hour chart? 4H is long enough not to be market "noise" , but is short enough not to have you miss the majority of the move

Email 4
Just wanted to drop a quick note to say hello. I am a silent spectator and learning very much from you – I am definitely getting my money’s worth and much MUCH more !! Good

I think I have joined the group at a unique time by witnessing 4 “live successive trades” stopped out for losses.
This increased volatility and a correction is a pain in the ass I don’t want you to lose at all; but your losses have taught me some very valuable lessons. It is strange to say this….. but it is nice to know I’m not the only trader to lose money -even successful traders like yourself do lose money. This has encouraged me to accept losses as part of this business and that I shouldn’t beat myself up for getting it wwwwwrong. I think your AH strategy is the best in the world – there is nothing like it that I have seen and it has taken away A LOT of fear from making losses (remember I was the bloke that blew two trading accounts before joining your group) ! You are a real trader and I admire that you have a trading plan and stick to it even when you have the pressure from the group to perform. Can I ask you – what do you do to cheer yourself up when you make losses ? I let my wife take me out shopping with her...Her spending makes my losses seem paltry...LOL I usually tell my wife I lost XXX pips and she normally says “not again” or “you should quit” !!! When I tell my wife she takes me with her and she shops with a vengence.... LOL


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 109

It is 6.15am NY time Tuesday May 13 and the market is at...you guessed it.. 1.5450 again!!

I am back into a waiting pattern to see when my options outlined in Message 108 will happen.

This market has effectively been rolling between 1.5350 and 1.5550 for over a week. It is certainly a market with no clear direction at the moment.

But I am now waiting, looking for a good opportunity.

Edit 8.45am NY time. Market dropping now...1.5435 and falling

Emails

Email 1
you were right when decided to make the trade, only with one day diference. That is, only on monday the market is reacting like you thought it would. Yes, I have noticed that with a couple of my recent trades...being just a day early

This leads me to 2 questions:
-How do you react when something like this happens? (seing the market moving like you thought, after you get stopped out) Since I′m new to this, I'm feeling really mad and frustrated. Oh no....You must stop that...take it on the chin and accept that it an integral part of trading. I am always disappointed because I don't like to lose money, but over-emotional reactions will spoil your trading rythm.
-Why did you take this trade on a friday, given that one of your rules is to stay out of the market on fridays.I don't normally like a friday trade, and won't take one after lunch time US session, but it seemed a good idea at the time Did you think about it then? Yes Did you think about waiting for the beggining of the week and then do the trade? Yes of course, but the market had broken through the 5450 resistance (to 5488) and was coming back to the resistance again. I considered that if it hit 5450 and i could get set, that the market might bounce off 5450 and continue upwards.

Email 2
I'm having a blast reading and digesting all the wisdom. In a way, it made me realize just how little I know, and therefore should really be taking baby steps and cut back on my leverage (was using 5X, now down to 1X). I'm trying very hard to find out where my own trading temperament lies. Surely this will take some time. you have the rest of your life with this "business"

I have a limit buy order at 1.52, and waiting for the fish to come to me. Have to admit that I didn't take your
2nd CT trade, or the last buy at 1.5450. I just didn't feel very comfortable with neither one. LOL...I didnt feel
comfortable about the CT either, but I was keen to try it out

Since the volatility has increased so much lately, one tends to get whipsawed a lot, even with a 100 pip SL, as
witnessed on the most recent trade. yes Of course, keep increasing the SL has its down side as well. Too
dangerous Other than waiting to enter at a better price, what do you think about keeping the SL at 100 pip, but
do not start trailing it until the price hits 100 pips in our favor. Say we buy at 1.5450, SL at 1.5350. We don't
move the SL until the price hits 1.5550, then we move the SL to 1.5450 to create a risk free trade. This way,
we're leaving more room for the volatility (200 pips). This is the way I treated the SL on the CT trades. It leaves
the SL at 100 pips under your initial price BUT with more opportunity of it being hit. Good to see that you are
thinking through the various trading options


Email 3
I found one of your email responses today very interesting. It has to do with that game you play with Mark, Newbie and Mrs. Jacko with regard to picking prices. It is a great game...Most people start out wildly overestimating the movements, but after a while they start to realise that big moves are "out of the ordinary". Also the major moves are usually within the first hour of the London and the US sessions PLUS any major news (Non farm Payrolls and FOMC announcements)

I got to thinking, How good do you get at Forex just by being in(close) personal contact with Jacko? I think it is a reasonable question. Only because I am a trader... But anyone can play the game with the same beneficial results After all, many of the Turtles wake up each day looking forward to your your nuggets of wisdom. Now, most of us would have no chance against you or Mark in the Forex arena. Mark is the best asset around...a bit jaded and cynical, but NO brokerage can pull a fast one in trading on our Mark and get away with it.Newbie by all accounts could kick everyones a--in any short term study because he has balls of titanium. He is definitely a plunger...but his attitude is that he started basically with very litle and so what has he got to lose. Having said that he is doing very well

But, what about Mrs. Jacko? She loves you; puts up with you; lives with this business every day; shops till YOU
drop and knows prices. I bet Mrs. Jacko would be a VERY good trader. Have you ever thought about asking her
to try? she has No interest in earning money...it would interfere with her ability to SPEND the money ...LOL !!!
My wife, Jenny, likes to look over my shoulder from time to time but I have never thought about asking her
opinion until today. She is very smart( not to mention absolutely beautiful). (She is looking over your shoulder as
you are typing this , isn't she??...LOL) I think I may start to play your "Price is Right " game with her. It will
keep me focused and help her understand why I am becoming emotion-less regarding my wins and losses.
Thanks for your thoughts. This obscure stuff is why I joined your group. Not for signals. Good stuff...thanks for
this


Email 4 (This was an interesting email that may or may not appeal to some of you)
I want to get some real discipline now into my trading. To that end I would like to set myself up on my live
account with a view to becoming a Junior Prop Trader (I am aiming for this .... if it actually happens is another
matter!).
I think having this target with a live account will put the relevant 'pressure and discipline' on me and will make
me an even better trader. A bit like preparing yourself for an interview and getting 'all your ducks in a row'.
What in summary are the Investment Bankers looking for from a trader ........ is it the following plus other
factors:

1. Details of a 'live account' traded over a period of time of at least 6 months plus? Yes
2. Evidence of not over-trading. They are less concerned with this aspect as long as the profits are there
3. Low draw-downs ( I think there is statistical measure of this .... I forget what its called) Yes
4. Decent returns over a period of time; taking account of relevant risk/reward from other asset classes. In
other words a rate of return between 30% to 50% per annum? Yes, though they are looking for higher than that.
They are after star performers !!!

Tell me when you have all the above and I will link you up with some good brokerages. Not the ones that
buy steak and make it into hamburger meat

Email 5 (A follow on from the above email)

Thanks for getting back to me .... its all fine doing the returns % wise .... but to also make it 'credible' to a
broker .... would you say $10,000 USD is a good amount to start trading the live account with. Yes
At the moment I have a much smaller account ..... the % return is good but the dollar amount is small ......
turning 10,000 bucks into 20,000 is more credible than turning 200 bucks into 400 bucks ... or is it? Its more
credible...but it also shows that you can handle the pressure of trading in big(ger) numbers. Thats why demo
accounts have no credibility .... the whole issue of trading is being able to handle the pressure of big numbers
(especially when a couple of trades go against you)


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 108

It is 4.15am NY time Monday May 12 and the market is at 1.5410

My 1.5450 trade was stopped out by the TSL at 1.5384 (after the market had risen to 1.5484 in early Asian trade).

I am now waiting for either

1. the market to fall lower to initiate the A-H trade or
2. consider to take another long trade
Given that I still feel that 1.5200 is still a possibility, I will be taking option 1, and looking again at a long trade at 1.5200

Edit 10.51am NY time Some of you have made a complaint about the tone of the email sent by the trader in email 2 (below). Let me assure you that I know that trader well from his previous correspondence and there is absolutely no malice in his emails to me (quite the opposite). I feel that I have done him a dis-service by editing his question too short

Edit 12.10 pm NY time Please take the time to read all the emails...there are some excellent emails today. (please note that I don't work on the weekends so if you send an email late on Friday, I may not answer it till Monday)

Emails

Email 1
Looking back over your trading with the group, are there any trades that you regret, besides the obvious two Counter Trend trades? LOL...I hate those Counter Trend trades !!. Hmmm, I can't say that I regret any other trades, because I have a tendency to put any disappointing trades behind me and not dwell on them. The Counter Trades were "informative" for me. In any business, when you have it humming along well for a couple of years (as I have with this Forex trend trading"business") you tend to get the urge to branch out and expand into other areas of the same business.

The Counter Trend trades were initially seen as an adjunct to an excellent business (that is, Trend Trading) that has been VERY, VERY profitable over the last 2+ years.

Unfortunately, like any other business, sometimes the move into an adjunct business doesn't work out as well
as expected. You can either persist with it because you have committed so much money into setting it up that
you want to try to get some of it back, or, you close the adjunct business.
One of the benefits of this trading business is that it has cost you absolutely NOTHING in set-up costs for the
business...so the choice was easy...I closed the adjunct (Counter Trend) business...... I simply stopped trading
Counter Trend trades... at least, until I get a better handle on them....
The loss of 2 x 100 pips on the CT trades was more annoying than anything...but I am old enough and
experienced enough to recognise that it is just part of trading.

Having said that, I am continually looking at ways to improve my trading...that means experimenting and trying
new things....

Email 2 (This is a follow up email from the same trader)
Do you regret the last trade...LOL? LOL.... No. Definitely not. This is a "back to basics" trade method that I have traded for over 2 years. It has been extraordinarily successful. I am actually feeling relieved that I have now experimented with the CT trades and have (again) come to the conclusion that it (trading against the main trend) is just too dangerous.
Without specifically answering your question as to how much I have earned, the two CT trades combined had less than a 10% impact on my current trading acccount balances. And I wanted to give the method every opportunity to prove itself (I gave it 100 pips Fixed Stop Loss on both occasions). It just proved again to me that trading against the trend (and without A-H protection) is just too dangerous for me.
The A-H has been a saver of a number of my trades in the past and Fridays trade will simply be another one.
Having said that some of the traders in the group are trading from the "short" side and doing reasonably well.
I don't ask people to follow only my trades. My trades are simply my trades,... some (and probably most) of
the group trade my trades PLUS their own

Remember, I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you
to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading, and WHY.

Email 3
For the past, the trend of long positions with the Euro was based on the fact that the Euro economy is strong and the US weak.
This has help created a trend line upwards and make it easy for us to trade (though I was not trading at that point of time)

However, I am having doubts with the trend up now because the Euro Zone are showing cracks at the moment.
Also, the US is showing bits of positive data.

Although the above does not necessary mean that the trend is over, but is it really a good time to trade now since the fundamentals supporting the trend is showing cracks and thus creating much volatility?
Perhaps we should wait until the market works itself out to define a clearer trend? Hmmm...perhaps, but then again, I am a trader. I trade when I think the market is biased in my favour. And looking at the daily and 4h charts, I am reasonably comfortable with taking long trades at around these levels (I prefer to buy at the lower end of the price range)


Email 4
When I first joined the group we saw the all time high hit a little over 1.60 and now we've been in this
retracement, and it still might go further down before the trend resumes. Certainly possible...

I sure do enjoy reading the blog each day, and getting an understanding of how you trade and also I really
enjoy reading the emails and the responses you enter in red type. Thank you. I am actually really enjoying
the experience too

This method is definately one which, one must develop patience, even more patience than what I thought it
would take when I started with you.
It would not suprise me, if as a long term trend trader (useing this method), one might have to be on the
sidelines for a month to 3 months in the event there is a major retracement and insane volatility. Some long
term traders do sit on the sidelines...Warren Buffett sat out the whole tech-boom

Thanks for giveing me the opportunity to get involved in this group. Thank you


Email 5 (I have had a few questions regarding the following issue)

on what time-frame should I trail the stop? For example I could trail it based on the high of an hourly bar, or smaller like a 15 min bar, or higher of a 4h bar?? It does not work on a time frame...it works on the highest point that the market trades at after you have taken a position. You dont need to adjust every pip (I do mine manually...because I don't trust computers).

Example

Buy at 1.5450.....TSL at 1.5350
Price moves up 20 pips to 5470...therefore TSL is dragged up to 1.5370
Price moves down 50 pips to 5420...TSL remains at 5370
Price moves up 100 pips 1.5520......TSL dragged up to 1.5470
Price drops 20pips to 1.5500...TSL remains at 1.5470
Price moves up 100 pips to 1.5600...TSL dragged up to 1.5500

Get the drift ?? You only need to adjust TSL every couple of hours (if necessary)

Email 6
1) you said on your blog you were adding to your initial position (50 lots), with a 20 lots position, but I didn' t see if you explained somewhere when did you add this supplementary position (systematical after some pips made (100 for instance) or by looking at PA, fib, resistance or whatever.....) Usually when I am 100-150 pips in profit

2) As you feel rather confident with your A-H strategy, why don't you use somme kind of progression (martingale type) with this strategy. I mean your initial position being 50 lots, your A-H entry could be for instance 75 lots giving you 25x100=2500 pips when the initial entry price is hit. Did you try ou simulate this kind of system ? I have seen all types of Martingale systems and I have always found them too dangerous for Forex trading...the probability is too random in Forex compared to a "mechanical" method like coin tossing etc

3) Did you hear about Phantom Of The Pits and his free ebook and precious rules ? Yes, I have a copy on my computer

Email 7
I am passing this onto you because it definitely worked for me, and we could all use a little more calmness in our lives. By following the simple advice I heard on the Dr. Phil show, I have finally found inner peace.Dr. Phil proclaimed, 'The way to achieve inner peace is to finish all the things you've started and never finished'.

So, I looked around my house to see all the things I started and hadn't finished, and before leaving the house this morning, I finished off a bottle of Merlot, a bottle of white Zinfandel, a bottle of Bailey's Irish Cream, a bottle of Kahlua, a package of Oreos, the remainder of my old Prozac prescription, the rest of the cheesecake, all of the Doritos and a box of chocolates.You have absolutely no idea how freaking good I feel right now! LOL LOL LOL LOL

Email 8 (This was a great email)
I have, I think, broken though a psychological barrier now and feel much better about my trades. The small losses now don't bother me as I consider them a part of doing business, thats the correct mindset the wins are happily received but no longer are out of proportion emotionally.good I no longer try to predict the market, I don't listen to the news, I simply trade what I see, and my vision is improving. excellent
Anyway ... at last I feel I am making positive progress. It is a journey...and it is a fun and interesting journey
Thanks' again for your help. Thanks


Email 9
Hi Jacko, hope you're having a great weekend. The UK is bathed in sunshine and everyone seems happy for a
change... long may it stay this way. I have been to the UK too many times to believe this ...LOL

I've got a question. One of your strengths is reading the market from a TA perspective (witness your statements about market turning over, feeling heavy etc etc). I'm sure much of this is from your days when you used to scalp, because you were presumably spending hours looking at a screen, seeing different formations, getting a feel for different situations. Now, I've no desire to spend hours looking at charts, but do you think if you're honest that it was a crucial part of your training -and therefore we might all benefit from scalping for a while to earn our stripes? Hmmm, perhaps....but I still think that the best "training" is a game I play with Mrs Jacko and Mark and Newbie where we try to consider/guess where the market may have moved since we last looked at the market (which may be hours). It tends to allow you to get better at "ranging" where the market will be. Try it...it is interesting how your "predictions" become less extreme and more considered (taking into account what time it is in the trading day...london open, US open etc)


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 107

It is 2.00am NY time Friday May 9 and the market is at 1.5439

Update below

I am starting to think that maybe I should trigger my 1.5450, but the market just doesn't look strong enough. I also have a feeling that 1.5450 is where the ECB has their hammer. As a head pops up to 1.5450, the ECB gently bangs it on the head. Whoa... market has jumped to 1.5455. Will watch for 10 more minutes...this is thin trading.

Edit 2.25 am NY time Market coming back... 1.5440

Edit 2.45am NY time Market at 1.5426 The BIG question is " Was 1.5283 the low ??"
Also, if you look on your 1hour chart, you will see that the market has done a 50% retrace from the 1.5593 high of the spike (at 10.15am NY time on May 6) to the 1.5283 low (at 21.45pm on May 7) to hit 1.5441 (10.45am on May 8). The 1.5450 mark is also a resistance area from earlier times. It is now at that area again.

Edit 3.10 NY time Watching market...at 5440.... I am inclined to believe that we will still hit 1.5200. I am NOT
a buyer at 1.5450 at this time. BUT I am still watching...

Edit 3.50am NY time Market has moved to a high of 1.5482 and is now retreating I have decided to BUY at 1.5450 if it comes back and hits it.

EDIT 4.05am NY time Some of you may want to see if you can get a better (lower) price than 1.5450, but my orders are in place

Edit 9.15am NY time It took some time to come back...some 4 hours to drift back to 1.5450 ...but I finally got my 1.5450s (at 8.30am NY time).  Now we let the trade play out...The TSL is 100 pips


Edit 10.45am NY time Email.....Why do you now see 5450 as a good entry? It had broken the resistance at
5450, and I was hoping to get back in on a quick retrace. What has pursuaded you to reject 5200? I haven't. If I
am wrong on this 5450 trade I will A-H it and buy again at 5200 (or lower)

Emails

Email 1
The e/u has been correcting for a couple of weeks now and we have a buy order at 1.5200, which a 50% Fib on the weekly chart.So does it mean that with the 50% fib, we start looking at the 4Hr chart and if that doesn't hold we look at the 8hr 50% fib, and if that doesn't hold we look at the daily, until we get down to the weekly 50% fib and is that breaks, we have to look for strong area of support. This is a good strategy BUT it has to be overlaid with a feeling as to whether the market has had a above-average rise (in size and speed). If so then you need to be much more cautious regarding the shorter time frames if we wanted to be in the markets do you think buying on areas of support would have been profitable,provided that we closed our trades at areas of resistance. That statement brings with it the whole issue of discretionary trading (esp for the exits)....what is a reasonable support and what is a reasonable resistance.

Email 2
I know you are a trend trader but that is also relative to price action is it not? Yes At least I believe it is, correct me if I am wrong.

I have a few questions about todays news and price action:
Do you think Trechet's hawkish verbage will change the course of the eurusd? He is talking tough on interest rates because that is his job (To use interest rates to keep inflation in check)
It certainly held it up today in a very tight channel. Do you for see it dropping tomorrow? I think so, but I also think we are getting near the bottom

I realize you are still convinced it will soon be at 1.5200 (I also have a market order there to buy) but could it make another run up before it drops or could Trechet's hawishness delay it in a consolidation pattern? I wouldn't say I was "convinced it will soon be at 1.5200," more like 51% that it will get there.

In your blog today you spoke about the effect of Trechets tone on the pair's movement and how that caused a reaction contrary to what the ECB "wants". Doesn't Trechet have the same interest as the ECB and if so why would'nt he be dovish? Yes he does but what he has to say (regarding interest rates and inflation) and what he knows is the market reality (regarding the Eur/USD rates) are two different things.
(Or is it just that he is being honest unlike his US counterparts? LOL) LOL....He is a government bureaucrat...If his
lips are moving he is probably telling us what we want to hear....If he was a politician and his lips were moving,
at least we would know he was lying.

Lastly, todays price action is creating a candle/bar which may very well turn out to be a hammer or doji or dragon fly --Whoa..I have no idea what they are....--a candle indicative of a reversal. Are you concerned about this? Or is this just a case where fundamentals will take over and determine its path? If you look on your 1hour chart, you will see that the market has done a 50% retrace from the 1.5593 high of the spike (at 10.15am NY time on May 6) to the 1.5283 low (at 21.45pm on May 7) to hit 1.5441 (10.45am on May 8). The 1.5450 mark is a resistance area

Email 3
i see in the email response 3 on the blog, talk about whether a limit order should be used of a stop order after it has finished falling(knives), i was thinking about this the other day, and wondered how the best way to handle this is, i too thought the best approach should beto let the market go past the 5200 and come back up to our entry I also think that is the best strategy, but then i think what if it just bounces off of our entry, do we wait to see if it will fall thru, at least with a definite entry point it takes the guesswork out of it. but there is still the fear of the market falling right through our entry price and continuing straight to our 100 pip stop.The other alternative is what if it goes through 5200,... then moves back up....we buy....and then it falls again...?? i know the ah could kick in and takes us in but it is like giving 100 pips up straight away.Yes this is just a dilemma i am having, Its a dilemma that ALL traders have...welcome to the "Traders Dilemma Club"



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 106

It is 3.00am NY time Thursday May 8 and the market is at 1.5340

The market has hit a low of 1.5283 as it creeps closer to my buy point. Market has moved up marginally to 1.5340 currently but I am feeling confident of getting filled at 1.5200 soon.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will each announce their monetary policy decisions. Should
see a downward push from that I believe.

Edit 10.15am NY time Market at 1.5396.. Trichets hawkish tone is pretty unconvincing to me. I think that he is playing to his audience "I will keep inflation under control" type of thing.

I will get my 1.5200 buy soon.

Edit 12.30pm NY time Market at 1.5413..Trichet has talked tough but everyone knows that he wants the Euro down...

I will get my 1.5200 buy soon.

Emails

Email 1
I really appreciate to being one of your group members. When I read the mail 1 in message 102, it said "the hardest thing in trading is not to trade," I totally agree with it. It reminds me someone told me that "you do not need to trade everyday, and you only make a trade depending on it it a good trade." Before I joined your group, I want to made trades everyday. After joining your group, I know the most two important things are patient and disciplining. All I need to do is to wait for my price. Exactly...the Forex market has excellent benefits (liquidity, leverage and rapid compounding)...the danger point is the overtrading and over-extending your risk.

I just read message 105, and I have a question regarding on the old buy order at 1.5450. Do I need to wait for 50 pips below that point and then to put the buy order? I will probably trigger the buy around 1.5300 (note: I was looking at 1.5250 to trigger the 1.5450 buy order...it hasn't got there yet.)

Also, since U.S. stop cutting rates, do you expect Dollar is going to strong? No...the problems of the USD are far
deeper than just the interest differential

Email 2 (This is a follow on from the emails in Message 103)
Well, my 150 pip trailing entry idea did not work out. The recent bounce from the low of 1.5360 to the high of 1.5594 is more than 230 pips. I said that this market was volatile at the present time Then price just went down again (at this moment more than 180 pips...). Of course one failure doesn't mean it won't work, but I think it would be better to be more patient and let the market tell us what it eventually is going to do. Aah, spoken like a mature trader

Email 3
Another question, now the market is at 1,5306 (11:35 p.m. NY) getting closer to the 50% 1,5200 so, should i put a limit order that might get hit in the way down of price, or, should i wait till the price past through 1,5200 (let's say 20-40 pips) and then put a buy stop order to get hit from the underneath? That is a better strategy, but (surprisingly) this tends to confuse some traders in the group....They prefer a definite "buy" point This considerating what you call "Try to catch falling knives" Yes, but given they volatility of the last couple of months, the 20-40 pips would not save you anyway.

Email 4
Headline in FT today -'Europe and US unite on stronger dollar'. Heh, I wonder if this is the sell signal!
I think someone has forgotten to tell the Bush Administration...the Fed has lent an additional $435 BILLION to
the banking system in recent months...and they have come straight off the printing presses

Email 5
I thought you might get a kick out of it as it says it is one of the original ads he placed looking for turtles: http://www.turtletrader.com/richard_dennis_turtle_want_ad.html Thanks



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 105

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday May 7 and the market is at 1.5505

The move up to high 1.5500's was short-lived. I am maintaining my stance on a retracement to around the 1.5200 mark. Looking at the 4 h and Daily charts reveals more room on the downside, though I feel that the market is getting ready to turn soon.
One or two traders are venturing opinions that they are going "short" in this market. Be very careful... (see last paragraph of response to email 1 below)

Edit 9.45am NY time Market has moved down to 1.5398. I expect that we will (finally) hit my target within the next 24-48 hours. I am hoping that it will break the 1.5359 low (set a couple of days ago) in the US session.

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market at 1.5378...still waiting...but my fish at 1.5200 is getting closer. Also I have received a couple of emails that have indicated confusion at my blog entry yesterday. When I said that "I missed the move upwards", I meant that I wasn't at my computer and didn't see it. (If I hadn't been at the meeting, I would not have changed my mind and bought in.)

Emails

Email 1
(Regarding your old order at 1.5450) would I be correct to say:
i) you were going to buy at 1.5450 or below and you will still do so once price moves up form current low to this level? Yes

ii) you changed order to buy at 1.5200 instead as you feel the market should hit that low (from fundamental analysis)? Yes and 50% retracement from Feb low to April high Therefore you did not trigger your buy at 1.5450
yet? No

iii) Once you enter long at 1.5200 or lower, you will long again at 1.5450 if price continues to moves up? Yes
You will then be in 2 positions if the long at 1.5200 is still open? Yes This is ok since its 250 pips apart and you would already have locked in profits for the 1st trade?Yes

This brings me to one big question. Seems that once we decided on a buying level(s) on the way down (eg. 1.5450) and market changes we will decide to buy lower (eg. 1.5200). Once market moves up, and hit our Original buying level(s) (eg. 1.5450), we will still initiate the buy. Almost like an "AH order" at the buying level(s) (eg. 1.5450) yes? Yes

So logically we can imagine all the buying points (eg. 1.5450 etc.) as points of trigger where we can enter on the price move up? Not too many, but yes

Sorry if this doesn't make sense, hope to know with more certainty. You are making complete sense. You are on track. The only thing that I can see is that you have an itchy finger. When you are shifting large trade sizes like I do, frenetic and frantic trading would bring me undone...I have too be very careful.

Those two CT trades was a very quick lesson from the market to smack me for trading against my standard method. While the damage wasn't very large in $$ compared to my overall profit , it was still a significant amount of money to trade away over a period of two weeks. I feel it also impacted my credibility. So I am now back to basics and trading exactly how I want to trade to maximise trading profits

Email2
Hello Jacko -I hope all is well on your side of the world. With eurusd not doing much lately, I was wondering what you do in your spare time. I am retired...I trade as a pastime..though a very profitable and enjoyable hobby. Forex trading is still the best business I have ever seen (Go to the very first couple of entries in this blog to re acquaint yourself with the benefits of this business...the liquidity, leverage and compounding are second to no other business that I have ever experienced).
I also tend to travel..my wife and I are free to travel whenever and wherever we want. Being based in Hong Kong, places like China, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines etc are short weekend trips for us. Japan takes a little longer but is nice.
And most times I can still trade from anywhere in the world. (Having said that we were in the Out Back of Australia in March which was sooo big and beautiful, but NO communications at all) But last June/July we travelled through Germany, with no major communication problems.
I have also been back home to the States twice on family matters.
Do you look at other currency pairs? No Also, if 1.5500 holds as a strong support level, would you consider buying at 1.5500 if the pair makes it back down to that level? NO...I suggest you have a look at the 4H and daily charts


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 104

It is 4.30am NY time Tuesday May 6 and the market is at 1.5465

This market has been going nowhere this week (a 110 pip range since the start of the trading week).

Am still looking to buy this market but am prepared to wait for it to go to around the 1.5200 mark. The 1.55 mark has acted as resistance and I am expecting (or hoping) that we will see close to the 1.52 very soon.

Edit 11.41am NY time Have been caught at a HK business function that was supposed to finish at 7.30pm which was dragged out until 11.00pm (HK time...HK is exactly 12 hours difference from NY time). Have missed the move up in early NY trade.

Emails

Email 1
I would like to get a handle on the % of your trades that are profitable ( excluding the AH trades).Do you have a number?

I apologise for the delay in answering this question (I am used to yahoo email that puts an arrow next to each email as you reply. This new Gmail system doesn't have that great little facility and so once you open an email but don't answer straight away, it thinks you have responded...Luckily I remembered that you had this question, so I went searching for it.)

Anyway, the answer to your question... It was a 72% success rate up until about January, I think. (It is in the blog somewhere) That figure would have dropped marginally due to the CT trades and one or two trades since. (This volatility is a pain in the ass !!)
However, the combined success rate using the initial trades combined with any subsequent A-H trade is much higher than the 72 % (which goes to show the effectiveness of the A-H strategy)

Email 2
I've just returned from work and read your last message with the two emails regarding the 100 pip s/l. Still as
Seeking light pointed out on your FF thread, it comes down to money and risk management, if you reckon a s/l
of 150 pips is better, then load your trade accordingly keeping your potential loss at 2 or 3% or whatever of
your trading capital. Thats right

I find the art or balancing act of setting optimum stop loss and target price levels to be one of the most elusive
of all to master, that is if the average mortal could ever master this arcane art. There is no definitive answer
because the market changes every so often...but the main thing is to be flexible enough to modify the trading
when the old method is shown to be causing a problem. The key is not to OVER react

Email 3

Your assessment of last weeks action is confirmed by the following.From: http://www.thelfb.com/trade-deskthoughts/

I wonder what will break this vicious circle? Change of President...end of troops in Iraq...punishment of Wall St CEO's that caused the near meltdown of the world financial systems...regaining of trust in Wall St by European and Asian banks

It seems to me that in the long term the ECB cannot prevent the Euro appreciation.Absolutely correct...thats why it will go past 1.6018 again very soon.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 103

It is 2.25am NY time Monday May 5 and the market is at 1.5472

The market has drifted back up to the high 1.5400's but I am hoping that 1.5500 might act as the last resistance point for the final drop down into the low1.5200's. I am still patiently waiting for the fish to bite at my level of around 1.5200. I can wait...

Edit 9.30 am NY time Market at 1.5478 (a full 6 pips more than 7 hours ago). Still waiting

Emails (It is interesting to contrast these two emails which came in directly after each other from two members. One thinks that 100 pips is too much and one thinks that maybe 100 pips is too little)

Email1

Just wanted to ask you a quick question: with the recent volatility in the EUR/USD pair, do you feel that the 100 pips trailing stop is the best way to bank as much profits as possible? Aren't you concerned that you could give back much of your profits? It is a balancing act between giving back some profits versus not being continually whipsawed out of the market. You have to have a limit. My limit is 100 pips. As I said , it is a balancing issue

Email 2

I had a look if there were any 100 pip bounces since the last high (about 1.6018) and yes there were some, but
the maximum bounce was somewhere near 135 pips. I think that if we placed a 150 pip buy stop we can always
catch the way up again and you don't have to baby sit. hmmm...150 pips is a LOT of pips to be giving back if you are wrong...It is a balancing act to find the right number. Interestingly the previous email by another member was suggesting that 100 pips might be too much to give back If this doesn't work out we can still use the A-H method. You mention the 50% retracement as your base entry level (somewhere near 1.5200), but if you are wrong and the Euro even drops further to the next support level at about 1.4900 then you are too early in the trade and likely you will get stopped out (again...). Yes, but my A-H trade will still be at quite a low level


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 102

It is 1.25am NY time Friday May 2 and the market is at 1.5474

Updates below. Also new emails

I have placed a "buy" order at 1.5200 on the expectation that I might get lucky with a quick spike down from the NFP. I have a 50% retracement at around that level and I was expecting that I might get filled sometime next week, but with the NFP pending today, I "might" get a fill earler than I was expecting.

I see 1.5200 as a low risk entry for a buy.

Will be back for US session. (I am currently making amends to Mrs Jacko for my Singapore sojourn...so I am carrying lots of shopping bags...LOL)

Edit 9.38am NY time The market has spiked down due to the NFP but not enough to pick up my "buy" order. I still believe that this market has further to drop. The rebound from the spike down has been VERY unimpressive. I think I will get my 1.5200 soon. The fish is cruising around my bait...I will hook him soon

Emails

Email 1
I have just been looking at the weekly charts.... It has given me a better appreciation of price movement. Good move !!!! when you watch the market from a longer term perspective, it gets much easier...have a look at your weekly chart...and you will see where the market is going so much easier

The last major dip in the EUR/USD was in Nov-Dec last year. It dipped by 657 pips and then there was congestion followed by a big rise. The current down trend has dipped by 522 pips. What we are seeing is not out of the ordinary and it could easily go down more. Yes...that is why I think 1.5200 is a better target than the current prices.

The hardest thing in trading is not to trade. It is so tempting and easy to put a trade on. Just a click of the mouse. I just read an article and it said that "the market pays you to be disciplined." An excellent expression


Email 2 (I have had this approach shown to me by a number of traders...it is a form of entry on the downside)

Wouldn't it be an idea to use a kind of a trailing entry. I assume you are trying to catch the start of the reversal?

If we have a retracement, like the huge one now with the Euro, why not put a buy stop for, let's say, 100 pips above the lowest price action. So if price continues to go down we adjust our previous entry to a new level of 100 pips above the new close. Hmmm, what happens if it bounces up 100 pips, triggers your buy order, then continues its descent
Of course it can be other than 100 pips, or another number like a one day ATR. Better to let the market fall, then stabilise then catch it on the way up (in the direction of the main trend)

Email 3
Happy blog birthday Jacko, and what a good 100 posts it's been. Here's to another 100, with maybe a little less
counter-trend trades eh ;) Oh yes...LOL

You said they might try and push it down to 15550 (currently 15510) -do you mean they as in the ECB, taking advantage of the low liquidity to knock the Euro back a bit? yes
And I was just trying to think of how you know this... I'm guessing but is it because:
-the fundamental problems of the USD haven't gone away yes
-the Euro is still currently strong, and has not yet been affected by the US downturn (yet being a crucial word I think) Hmmm...yes
-the correction is deeper than you would expect without intervention yes definitely. The ECB is clearly
pressuring it down. The market momentum has taken hold but that should stop soon
-the market is barely reacting to dollar weakening news (such as the interest rate cut) ? yes

Email 4
Anyway please help with the following:

1. Are we seeing the 'usual' Bank Holiday drive down on the Eur ..... with a potential big move next week? Yep, the ECB is taking advantage of the May Day holiday and the fact the bankers made a long weekend out of it. Liquidity is low
2. I know that the longer term trend is still UP .... but I am wondering whether or not this 'oil tanker' is slowing and starting its turn around? Possibly in anticipation of a new President? Also I spoke to a friend who lives in Spain ... he said the high Euro is starting to hurt alot of people .... and 'surely this cannot go on' .... but I said 'Oh yes it can'! Normal operations (up trend) will resume very soon
3. Also are you back to your 'normal' way of trading now ...... you seem to be out of the market for ages ....
Yes, this is how I used to trade when a market is correcting...it is the overtrading, and worse, the trading against the main trend that has been abnormal (and costly).

The original method returned me much better results than the more recent ones where I have tried to
overtrade, or worse, trade against the trend. I have now become much more determined NOT to be
pressured into trading for the sake of keeping the more active traders of the group happy.



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 101

It is 2.30am NY time Thursday May 1 and the market is at 1.5626

It is hard to believe that the blog is now into its 100+ Message. It seems like only yesterday that I started this little group.

As stated yesterday, most of the markets are closed today for May Day. The volatility is usually above average.
This is why most pros stay out of the market during holiday sessions because they are randomly volatile....

My guess would be that they may try to take it back to the mid 1.5550s


Edit 10.00am NY time Well, the market was certainly more volatile, it also went back to the mid 1.5550's.
It has then continued to probe lower to the 1.5450 mark. There is a measure of resistance at this level. There may be a short term bump up from this level in the next 24-36 hours.


However, as stated in yesterdays Message 100, I feel that the down draft is looking for the 1.5200 mark in the medium term as the target (50% retracement from February 7 2008 low of 1.4438 and the April 22 high of  1.6018), so I am not tempted to buy at this point. However, we are getting closer to the buy zone.

It is also worth re-reading the email 1 response in Message 100.

Edit 12.08pm NY time Market has stabilised at the 1.5450 mark for the present time. I am prepared to be
patient and wait for it to get into my target zone of the 1.5200's

Edit 9.30pm NY time Market has remained at around the 1.5450 mark (in the last 10 hours it has moved between 1.5430 and 1.5480). It is now at 1.5463.


Summary Of Trading Strategy (Updated)

We have a couple of new members who have joined in the last month so I thought that now would be a good time to quickly summarise my trading strategy to reflect the new increased volitility in the Euro. It also reflects my own desire to get back to basics (after my little experiment of Counter Trend trading)

I am a Trend Trader

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fibo ratio..)
3. bank your profits

How do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.
2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

Anti-Hedge Method

That strategy is:

1. you put a trade on and you put a Trailing Stop Loss of 100 pips (this has been raised from 50 pips due to increased volatility in EUR/USD pair)
2. the market goes against you (horrors....I was wwwwwrong !! )
3. let the market continue...it will probably go say another 30 -100 pips past your stop...who knows ???
4. WHEN IT MOVES 50 PIPS BEYOND YOUR STOP LOSS, PUT AN ORDER IN AT THE EXACT SAME FIGURE AS YOUR STOP LOSS (if you were originally "long" then place a "long" order) This ensures that when the market comes
back, as it invariably does, you have a DEFINITE order in place to put you back in the market where you were originally...and you are now in the same direction as the market is moving..
5. FINALLY, the market comes back around and starts to head in the opposite direction
6. The market picks you back up on its new direction
7. The A-H trade also has a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss. It is also a one-time trade. There is no A-H on an A-H trade

Signal Service

I am not a signal service...My trades here are not a recommendation. They are here simply to allow you to see
when and what I am trading and why.

Having said all that, I want to express my thanks to each of you. I am really enjoying the blog and the
emails. It has added another dimension to my trading and causes me to look at how I am trading on a more
analytical basis. (On the other side of the equation, I still feel a small pressure to trade more often than I
would normally trade, because my strategy is built on less trades but hit the market with big volumes...though I
am trying to overcome those pressures).

MESSAGES FROM JACKO (APRIL 2008) 79 - 89

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 79

It is 9.35pm NY time Tuesday April 1 and the market is at 1.5592

Update and emails below

It is currently 9.35am (April 2) local Hong Kong time and I am looking at new computers. About 18 hours ago my computer was hit with a virus that has rendered my computer virtually useless. (There must be an April Fool's virus).

Rather than have my computer in the workshop for 5 days and pay the repair costs (equivalent of all last years exports from China) like they quoted me late yesterday, I am out shopping for a brand new computer.

Will be back on air after I can find someone who will sell me a new computer on the proviso that he installs my laptop with all the gizmos and programs in my home. The thought of me spending hours doing all that rubbish drives me to despair.

I will be back as soon as possible.

Edit 12.40am NY time I am in a cyber cafe. Market is at 1.5600. As discussed in email two below, I believe that the long term UP trend is still in place. We will easily see 1.7000+ in the longer term. In the medium term, I believe that the market will retrace for a week or two (maybe even up to a month). However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Emplyment Change) may have an impact.
(The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position...the alternative is to stay out of the market in the medium term...and I am prepared to give the CT trade another opportunity)
Will be back later, hopefully not too long, on my shiny new Toshiba laptop.

Emails

Email 1
I have noticed over the past few months that you very rarely add a comment to your blog until Sydney and Asia are closed and London is open. Do you feel that those markets have little impact on our preferred pair? Yes,
Asia tends to focus on JPY trades and AUD/USD
As a follow up, do you feel it is critical to our success to be awake and alert when London opens until midsession NY? No not necessarily, it just suits my times...Mrs Jacko goes shopping , gets exhausted by 3 pm local time...I am home ready to start as London opens
As you know from your time in Florida that time of day sucks if you happen to live in the Midwestern states. I am curious about your thoughts. However, if the trades are planned and the stops are set I suppose I could put the plan on auto-pilot and just set my system to alert me in the middle of the night if the price gets close. Yes, that would work..or just leave it on auto-pilot (you being out of bed is not going to change the market)

Email 2
I went for the countertrend trade too and got stopped out. I only used a small amount of my normal position for it so it didn't lose as much $$ as a normal trade thankfully. I have a trend line going along the bottom of the recent range on the 4 hour chart, after the spike upwards I've got a small exhaustion spike going below my trendline and a close right on it. I'm going to take a long trade here using less than my normal position again.
Price is at 1.5776. If this goes against me, I'll treat it as a fallen soldier, but, where I really want to go long again is at 1.5600 which also happens to be the 50% retracement of the recent move up. A sound strategy Are you looking at this price also? No, I am actually looking lower...I think that there has been a collective breath of relief about the American financial crises. I dont believe that the long term UP trend is over, because there are still very large, deep seated problems in the US system
Do you ever go long on breaks above recent highs? sometimes That's a strategy I've used with some success in the past for strongly trending pairs,but that seems like the opposite of what you're trying to do which is go long as close to the bottom of a dip as possible. Yes, because I am a bargain hunter...and sometimes...sometimes !!...I am quite good at picking turnarounds in market sentiment
I'm getting more patient and feeling less anxious, planning a trade and waiting for the price I want is satisfying as I'm not just staring at a chart dumbfounded wondering what to do. That is a major psychological shift for the better.

I have had a number of emails from some of the group asking that I re-emphasis the following as it seems to have struck a chord with some of you

Email 3
You have been successful in business, and successful in trading. I think your "bigger picture" perspective is one of the reasons I wanted to work with you in the first place. The "bigger picture" is necessary because this is something that I decided I wanted to do for the rest of my life. I have found something (trading) that I can do for as long as my mind remains competent (hopefully another 50+ years). As I get older and the body changes from the magnificent Adonis body that I have now (LOL), there will eventually be a number of things that I will not be able to do...but trading is not one of those things. I have never seen it as work. Like most traders, it is a
passion. It is mentally stimulating and is something that I enjoy and want to do until the day I die.



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 80

It is 11.40am NY time Wednesday April 2 and the market is at 1.5614

After waiting for hours for the Sales guy to arrrive and install everything, I am back on the air.

An important note: I have changed my email addresses due to (supposedly) better virus  checking and spam control by Gmail (compared to Yahoo).

Please adjust my email address:

For the first group, my email is now waynejackson888@Gmail.com
For the second group, my email is now waynejackson777@Gmail.com
Please help me by changing these emails now as I wish to close the Yahoo accounts as soon as possible to prevent a repeat of the last 24 hours.

Also, I will be answering any unanswered emails in the Yahoo email box from a cybercafe until I am sure that my system is safe.

OK Lets get down to business.

As discussed in the previous Message:
I believe that the long term UP trend is still in place. We will easily see 1.7000+ in the longer term. In the medium term, I believe that the market will retrace for a week or two (maybe even up to a month). However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Employment Change) may have an impact.

(The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position...the alternative is to stay out of the market in the medium term...and I am prepared to give the CT trade another opportunity)

Update. The market moved to a high of 1.5673. Even though that I was still off the air at the time of the ADP NonFarm Employment Change announcement, 1.5673 is not high enough to be attractive to me to enter a CT trade. (A quick spike to between 5700 and 5750 would have enticed me). Even then, the low of 1.5532 barely satisfies the CT criteria of the break of the 4 hourly trend line
The CT trade is not a trade that I am that keen on, but my instinctive feeling is that we are due for a retracement, and a significant one. I think that there has been a collective breath of relief about the American financial crises that somehow they have "dodged the bullet," which will result in a temporary and short term rise in the USD (and fall in the Euro) and probably the Dow.
However in the longer term there are still very large, deep seated problems in the US system that will see the USD at 1.7000+



MESSAGES FROM JACKO 81

It is 2.40am NY time Thursdaysday April 3 and the market is at 1.5654

Update below

As stated in yesterdays Message, I was looking for a spike to between 5700 and 5750 to entice me into the CounterTrend trade. I am still looking for it...maybe when this Friday's Non Farm Employment Change are published ??

One or two of the newer members have emailed me re the Counter Trend Trade
The criteria as set out in Message 21 are
1.There is an Exhaustion spike
2.The break of the shorter time frame trend line (preferably 4 hourly) rounded down to nearest 50 or 00 (with x contracts)
3. The break of the longer time frame trend line (preferably 8 hourly) rounded down to nearest 50 or 00 (with 2x contracts)
4. Trailing Stop Loss is 50 pips ( NOTE: At the moment I am more inclined to use a fixed 100 pip SL due to the recent increased levels of volatility)
5. There is no A-H in effect

However, keep in mind that
1. We are still testing it
2. It has no "insurance policy" of an A-H strategy
3. It has to be treated totally separately to trend trading.
4. We have seen situations where both trend trading and counter trend trading can be operating at the same time, due to operating on different time frames.

Will be back for US trade....(I am re making all "pictures" on each of my 4 trading platforms... what a pain ! I just had them all the way that I liked them on my old computer)

Edit 10.40am NY time Market too choppy at the moment. Still waiting for around 1.5700+ to go short..may see it with NFP tomorrow ??....... if it doesn't come, I am happy to wait for a bigger dip and just stay with Trend Trading in "long" direction.

Emails

Email 1
You mentioned looking for a high to enter a CT trade in the short term. And that the mid term is a correction downwards. Yes
Will you still be looking for long trades on dips or will you only trade shorts with CT entries? I am still looking for a long trade but I think the dip will be reasonably deep...therefore I either wait up to month for the bottom of the dip or I take a CT trade to get some extra pips on the downside
When you trade CT entries, do you still use 50% fib retracement, etc to decide your entry point? How do you decide entry point? See the criteria for the CT trade in the blog

Email 2
I hope you are over your virus and feeling a lot better
Thank you Did I ever tell you that I am a techno moron....I really dislike computers...ANd I can't understand why anyone would get up in the morning and say to themselves..."I am going to create an awful virus today"

Email 3
I hope your new computer will serve you well! How did you know to buy Toshiba? They have one of the best laptops around… Believe me, I'm a semi-pro techno geek ;) LOL...It was the "nicest looking" computer. The Sales guy quickly worked out that I was an old guy...who knew NOTHING about computers...and was conversing in a foreign language and laughing with his workmates as he sold me the computer.
He also said that the older the computer, the more likely that there would be less problems. Lucky for me, he had one last old computer in his back room...and I didn't even need to unpack it from the box, because he had already done that for me....What a nice guy !!!! .
DO YOU THINK I GOT A GOOD DEAL??? LOL

Email 4
I was out surfing today and had the break to myself for a while. You may know that waves arrive in sets, or a series of waves one behind the other. All alone, I get to pick any one but only one usually. At one point I kicked out of a smallish, slow wave only to look back and see a really nice big one just starting to fire down the line. Wishing I'd caught that one instead, I was reminded of our Counter Trend trade. We just took the trade one wave early. Yep, it happens like that sometimes.

Email 5
on the counter trend trade ..... just the following observations:- When you missed out earlier in the week / you had a bad funk few days .... I was wondering whether this in turn led you to enter the CT trade very late in the week and holding it over the week-end / and the data then as a result 'fitted' your thought process? If it had been successful great ....... no more said / but did the trade go against your normal trading rules? Yes, the spike wasn't as strong as I usually want to see...it popped up earlier in the next week when it spiked to 5895-
Also I see (or am I crazy?) on a weekly basis & analysis counter-trend moves *(market sentiment at the start of the week) ....... this week is effective Short EUR .... and I know that you have said the CT does not have an AH policy ...... but in this last CT trade of yours it would have worked ..... and if I remember right the previous CT trade to that... if you had applied the AH to that trade then that would have worked also. I will check both of those again
Basically, I know there is the longer term trend (not questioning that at all) / but what about the interim counter trends that occasionally happen in the mean-time on a weekly basis / how can we take advantage or avoid these? That is where the CT trading come into play but we are still live testing it...there has not been many sizable corrections in the Euro for some time !!



MESSAGES FROM JACKO 82

It is 11.40pm NY time Thursday April 3 and the market is at 1.5665

As stated earlier today, I am still waiting for around 1.5700+ (1.5750 is enticing) to go short..may see it with NFP tomorrow ??....... if it doesn't come, I am happy to wait for a bigger dip and just stay with Trend Trading in "long" direction.

Two good reads regarding the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) are here:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Non_Farm_Payrolls__Dollar_Outlook_Hinges_1207242757904.html

and here:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Top_5_Most_Market_Moving_1205879160043.html

I will be back for NFP announcement

Emails

Email1
How's the new 'pooter (Computer)? Not bad...still getting used to it.
Also, still getting used to new Gmail email format.
Also, have been trying to remember how I had each of my trading platforms set up so I can get them all back the way I had them
(Aaaugh...I hate computers!!! And its just not the same yelling at a computer when a trade starts to tank....I much prefer to have the old way of ringing up a broker and abusing them for MY mistakes...LOL)


MESSAGES FROM JACKO 83
It is 9.09 am NY time Friday April 4 and the market is at 1.5693

I am in at 1.5750. I have actually been arguing for the last twenty minutes with one of my brokers regarding my fill.

Edit 10.03..... Sorry, don't know what happened there...lost half of the message... I am still "negotiating " with one of my brokers. It appears that one is seriously out of line compared to the other three...they are "checking into it". I have given them till the close of business today, otherwise I will be "checking out" of them... Mark is ringing their CEO.

Edit 10.26am I am still in at 1.5750.



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 84

It is 12.15am NY time Monday April 7 and the market is at 1.5672

I am still in at 1.5750 and am about 80 pips in profit (partway to recovering my 100 pip loss last week on a "premature" trade). I am still comfortable with this trade

Edit 9.44am NY time. Market not moving very much. No major news today. FOMC meeting tomorrow. Market
may drift up and down over next 24 hours. I am still happy with my position.

Emails

Email 1
I received no Text on you getting "In".... did you send one?
No it was too fast a reaction on the NFP announcement but I had telegraphed it for about 4 days on blog

Message 82 I am still waiting for around 1.5700+ (1.5750 is enticing) to go short..may see it with NFP tomorrow

Message 81 I was looking for a spike to between 5700 and 5750 to entice me into the CounterTrend trade. I am still looking for it...maybe when this Friday's Non Farm Employment Change are published

Message 80 However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Employment Change) may have an impact. (The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position.......
my instinctive feeling is that we are due for a retracement, and a significant one. I think that there has been a collective breath of relief about the American financial crises that somehow they have "dodged the bullet," which will result in a temporary and short term rise in the USD (and fall in the Euro)

Message 79 However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Emplyment Change) may have an impact. (The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position

Message 79 I believe that the long term UP trend is still in place. We will easily see 1.7000+ in the longer term.
In the medium term, I believe that the market will retrace for a week or two (maybe even up to a month).
However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months,
Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Emplyment Change) may have an impact.
(The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we
may get a good Counter Trend sell position...the alternative is to stay out of the market in the medium
term...and I am prepared to give the CT trade another opportunity)

Email 2
It sounds like you are bearish in the short-term. Yes
My question is, whatexactly are you looking for to tell you the trend is heading back up? Change in market sentiment on a fundamental basis and a change in the price action
I'm guessing you don't have a specific price level in mind (maybe you do?) Not really but are looking for price action to exhaust itself on the downside. yes
What does that confirmation (of a move back up) look like? Hitting a major support line, or maybe a 50% retrace of major rise or a round number
Doesn't waiting for confirmation not get you the best deal? ? sometimes yes, but I don't want EVERY deal...just the ones with a much better than 50% probability of a win...each win and loss is a big slab of money, so I prefer to wait for trades biased in my favor

Email 3
In the last CT entry at 1.5750 or better, I entered at 1.5771 but got stopped also. But I re-entered at 1.572 after the "killer" spike as I felt that your prediction of a retracement is very strong. It was a small position that I wanted to try out and it managed to close out with 100pip TSL at 1.5633 for a 94pips gain. Good work

I might have been lucky but I strongly believe it was because you were right about the strong retracement. You spotted a "down trend" within an "up trend". You got a beautiful CT trade there going if not for the "killer" spike, else it would have been a "perfect" trade! LOL..".what if" scenarios...Woulda coulda shoulda ..!!!
Just some feedback which I hope would be useful. I really look forward to seeing the CT strategy becoming as great as your Trend strategy. Thanks

Email 4
Hehe, I was laughing so hard, when reading your laptop buying story =) Thanks for that too. Anyway, I'm 100% sure, you've bought a good laptop and for trading will be more than enough.

Thanks..I actually got one of the new "retro" models...you know, one of those very expensive ones with the "retro" black and white screens...no messy colors at all !!!!.

Whoa, did I get a great bargain or what ???


Email 5
Is the correction that is about to take place a result of a short lived rising in the Dollar or fall in the Euro? What I am trying to say is who is pushing for this correction happen, the Dollar or the Euro? Just wanted to see your view, Thanks again... I think the rise of the dollar is being brought about by people realising that the world is not going to end and that the panic/overreaction is over. However, it will not prevent the USD from continuing to fall over the longer term

Email 6
I followed my plan. You are "getting it" !!!! ...you are starting to become less emotional and sticking to your plan...that is 90% of the solution to winning in Forex...Plan your trade, be patient...and don't panic at every twitch in the market..trade the plan

Email 7
You prefer to set your stop loss 50 or 100 pips. I'mstill using what I think important resistence or support points and placing S/L above or below them. Good strategy...I just find that that sometimes can be too "discretionary" ...I prefer the unemotional fixed figure
So just wanted to know your thoughts about that. Itry to make my losses as small as possible so Iussualy look for resistence/support points with about50 pips and place my S/L there. Good combination...as long as you determine your exit strategy and price BEFORE you enter the trade

Email 8
Hope you've settled with your broker on your 1.5750 entry. Oh yes...Mark can be VERY persuasive !!!
Your target was amazingly spot on as usual, wow! Wonder when I can be like you. It won't be long Was this the same target as the one last week (also 1.5750)? I was really quite uncertain about when to put my entry order and set it at 1.5800 just to play safe. No...too high and too strong a level

Regarding this trade, I was wondering is this considered a news trade? No. My trade was placed well before the news Is it advisable to trade during news times? Yes...as long as you are not "Trading the news"...that is, in and out in less than 5 minutes I have never tried but read so much about spread widening and problems with fill etc.

Another question on CT trade in general.

We first decided on CT trade last week. We had the criteria for CT trade on break of 4&8 hour trend lines. So we predicted a down trend for the short term and put our entries. My question is how long is this setup valid?
That is an indeterminate time frame...depends on the individual trade How do we know that this short term down trend is not tradable any more? When the opportunity to buy/sell at the target price is no longer available


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 85

It is 8.00am NY time Tuesday April 8 and the market is at 1.5716

I am still in with my Counter Trend trade at 1.5750. The bear is trying to hide but I can smell him in the bushes.

Like the previous trade, I have a fixed Stop Loss (at 1.5850). I am going to keep it there and then I may change it to a 100 pip TSL later in the trade (probably around 1.5600). I also still have a buy order sitting at 1.5450 waiting to be triggered

Emails

Email 1 (This one was from a couple of days ago)

I personally hate the NFP report day. I don't have a crystal balls(brass yes). I don't have an in-law at the Bureau
of Labor Statistics or the Fed(how great would that be). The whip-saw that happens in just a few minutes
before that report is enough to take out the standard 50 pip TSL(maybe even 100) in a heart beat. So, what do
you do? You don't trade news. I don't try to trade "the news"...(in and out in minutes).. but if I have a medium
term price target in already in mind from days earlier then I don't really care about the news...the news is just
a market reaction on fast forward , But, you pay close attention to it. I prefer that combination too.

It requires some really big ears to touch both the technical and fundamental rails at the same time. So, how do
you handle big news days? Let it pass then trade? No, just ignore the fact that it is a news event...the question
is "do I want to buy at a certain price, irrespective of the news
Bet one side with a tight stop? No Bet big on your gut(Jacko ,Mark and Newbie)? Noooo !!!!

I think in August you let the announcement come and then traded the big surprise(interest rate drop, not NFP)
right away until you were fat and happy. Yes, because I didn't have a pre existing target at the time of the
news, but then when I saw the reaction, I thought that it was "out of line"

Email 2
I have a Buy Limit order with a 100 pip TSL set. Now I'm off to do some gardening and let's see what will
happen (if anything). That's the correct approach...
you have analysed the situation..
you have decided on a plan for the trade...
you have set the limit you are prepared to risk...
and you have gone to do something that you want to do...
Excellent (PS Watching it tick by tick or minute by minute won't change a thing...just give you a bad case of high anxiety)

Email 3
With your latest CT trade are you using 100 pip TSL? No. I am using a 100 pip fixed for the current Counter Trend Trade. (the same as the last trade) . I may change it to a TSL later. I can smell a bear and he is lurking...I want to give this trade some breathing room

Email 4
Just wanted to check in and say how much I am enjoying your blog and guidance on where/how to look for trades, I am much more relaxed about trading - and now enjoying it! Good...it is something that hopefully you will do for the rest of your life...so it is better that you get into a "special place" where it is enjoyable
Also you may learn from my experience (similar to yours) of computer ceasing to exist. I now store examples of my set ups on a memory stick and some on a cd so that if the unthinkable happens again I have reference for getting back to normal.......LOL .....Waaay to complex.....I am a techno-moron. You would be proud of me... I took photos of the four platforms...

Email 5
I'm just interested to know how much of your market insight is derived purely from intuition and years of  experience and how much of it relates to you keeping abreast of current issues. It is both...but I think that the main thing is that I am still REALLY interested in "big picture" economic affairs as it impacts on the stock, property and forex markets. Reading that stuff is not a chore...I can't wait to get the business papers every day


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 86

It is 9.45am NY time Wednesday April 9 and the market is at 1.5760

I am still in with my Counter Trend at 1.5750. The market is has been oscillating between 1.5700 and 1.5800 for quite some time. However, I am reasonably sure that tomorrow may be the day for the direction to be established. The Euro Interest Announcement and the US Trade Balance and Unemployment claims could act as a dam breaker.

I am still very comfortable with my position though I am tiring of the inaction and would have liked to see it sitting lower down at this time. However, I am in and am staying with the position.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 87

It is 1.15am NY time Thursday April 10 and the market is at 1.5840

My 1.5750 Counter Trend trade was stopped out for a 100 pip loss (it was a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss).

As far as my trading is concerned, the Counter Trend trading is in the dustbin.

My last two trades were both Counter Trend trades and those two trades have been my two single largest pip losses ever. In the last two trades I have incurred a total loss of 200 pips.
While it is not significant against my accumulated profits to date, it has torn a hole in my trading over the last three months(though I am still positive).

What is even more galling is that if I had stayed with my boring, standard, normal Trend
Trading strategy at the time of making both of those decisions, then I would have been sitting on a 68+ pip profit versus a 200 pip loss* (*See calculations below).

The point of the above is that even by trading at prices that I perceived were the extremes of "shorting" , the standard Trend Trading strategy would still have resulted in a far superior result.

To those who followed my Counter Trend trades, I apologise.
To those who stood aside and watched while I "live tested" this relatively new Counter Trend strategy, I hope that you have seen a lesson that has cost me 200 real pips and a further "potential" 68+ pips.
If nothing else, it seriously demonstrates the "robustness" of trading only with the trend. (It also demonstrates the effectiveness of the A-H strategy)

Calculations

Trade 1
At 2.25am NY time March 28, I advised that I would be going "short" at 1.5785 (which I did)

Now lets see the result of staying with the Trend at that time.
1. Long at 1.5785 2.25am March 28
2. Market peaks at 1.5895 at 10am March 31.
3. TSL set at 1.5795
4. TSL triggered for a 10 pip gain around 12pm March 31

Trade 2
At 11.40am NY time April 2, I advised that I would be looking to go "short" again at 1.5750 (which I did)

Now lets see the result of staying with the Trend at that time
1. The market was at 1.5614. A "Long" placed at that time
2. Market peaked at 1.5701 at 4pm April 2
3. TSL set at 1.5601
4. TSl triggered for a 13 pip loss at around 4.30am April 3
5. HOWEVER, market falls more than 50 pips past our TSL, so A-H strategy is in place
6. A-H strategy sets a buy at 1.5601
7. A-H buy at 1.5601 triggered at 8.30 am April 3
8. Market peaks 1.5772 at 8.30 am April 4
9. TSL set at 1.5672
10. TSL triggered for a 71 pip gain at around 10 pm April 6
In addition, being in profit, we would have also had the opportunity to place an additional long trade sometime between April 6 and the present time. ( the potential profits were missed because we were in the Counter Trend trade...)

Emails

Email 1
common sense tells me that a downward correction is due before an overall resumption of the upward trend.
Therefore I will be waiting for a break of the pennant trend lines before i re-enter. I expect it very soon since the pennant is coming into a 100 pip range. Time will tell which way it is going to break....if it breaks upwards, it shows me that the banking problems in the US and Europe are far, far worse than they have been saying.

Email 2
I do not like stop losses as I have just lost too many trades by being stopped out by a few pips only to see the price turn round. My last trade I had a 100 pip stop and the market spiked up 110 pips to knock me out by 10 pips ...and then it fell through the floor...(it knocked my "short" out at by 10 pips at 1.5895...then dropped to 1.5532..)...but that is trading !!! (No-one gets it right 100% of the time in any business) I have only been using stops when I can't babysit the trade, and they always seem to be just too tight. I shouldn't forget that on
many occasions though the tight stops have been OK, especially when the price just shoots away and doesn't come back. They are the account killers.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 88

It is 9.45am NY time Friday April 10 and the market is at 1.5814

I think that the cruellest thing in trading is watching your Stop Loss being taken out by the smallest amount, then the market collapsing in what would have been in your favour.

In the first Counter Trend trade, I was stopped out by 10 pips at 1.5895 only to see the market then collapse by 350 pips.

At least in the second Counter Trend trade, the market had the decency to travel to 1.5912 (or 62 pips past my Stop Loss) before collapsing all the way back to 1.5724.

I am staying out of the market today, Friday, but will be looking for a long trade early next week.

It is time to get back in the saddle and get back to basics.

Emails

Email 1
Hi Jacko….here is a quote I keep to myself when a trade goes against me. I hope it encourages you as it reminds me so much of this market when the "guys outplay" you. Tiger Woods on "Success":
"You've got to put yourself in position. You've got to work hard; do all the things you need to do to get yourself there. Sometimes it goes your way, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes the guys outplay you; sometimes you outplay them. Sometimes you may get a lucky break that allows you to go on and win the tournament.
Whatever it may be, the thing is you have to put yourself out there enough number of times to get the number of wins."

Email 2
I see you discouraged on your CT trade calls. Thought both of you calls were very accurate. Problem with #1was that it was taken out by that unexpected spike,but after it it went down pretty hard just like you predicted and 100pip TSL would have made gains.
#2call was also fine, with 50 pip TSL there would be 20+pips to gain.
What I'm getting to is that your calls on trades are still very accurate and CT strategy should not be dimissed, maybe it just needs some more work to tune it. Maybe imply some T/P for CT trades lets say set amount of 100pips or T/P at important resistance levels like 4H trendlines. Both of these would haveworked well on you 2 CT calls. There will be no more Counter Trend trades in the foreseeable future for me, but we may continue to test various options such as you have described but my hands are black and scorched at the moment

Email3
Hi Jacko,
When I look at the charts, I would have chosen 1.5200 as the next long entry point because it is close to the
50% retracement of this most recent move from 1.4438 to 1.5902 and it is a round number and there was some
resistance in this area in the first week of March. It is still a possibility
Do you feel the 1.5450 area will provide support because of the prior resistance at this area from the second
week in March yes and that we are in such a Bullish environment that traders want to get long as early as
possible? Yes, absolutely.

Email 4
Are you still confident the panic is overdone? Housing data way off today and Greenspan admitting we are in recession would argue otherwise. Yes, I think the headlines are over, now it will be just a grinding down of the US financial system...(the Euro correction is taking place as I speak...market back at 5747....(shit!!)...but it wont last long)..the euro will go up again very soon and easily hit 1.7000

Email 5
When you were trading aggressively on dailyfx forum, were you using the same strategy you are using now andwere you trading on shorter timeframes? Same strategy, shorter time frames...but it is not emotionally sustainable over the longer term (in my opinion)

Email 6
I'm guessing you're stopped out of your 2nd CTT now, and being the perfectionist that you are I've noticed that your first reaction is usually not one of annoyance of your loss, but one of concern for the rest of the group.
Don't worry - the blog's still the best read all of us ever get, and you're by far the best trader I've ever seen.
Besides, you've always made it explicit you're not a signal service and many of us didn't take the trade knowing about the perils of a counter-trend. This may be obvious, but I thought now was a good time to remind you!
Thanks for your kind words...the reason I get "concerned for the rest of the group" is that I am playing with the markets money (that is profits from previous trades) whereas some of the traders here are playing with their own money....BIG  IFFERENCE.... but it is one thing that I am very aware of and I always try to be careful for them

Email 7
Since starting your tutelage, I have been pretty liberal with short trades, due to the anxiousness to trade. I have done the same as some in the group prefer to trade much more than me
So after this round of losses I wanted to see what my trading account would look like if I abstained from the CT/Short trades. WOW, what a difference! As of today I'm up 25+% on my trading account. Excellent by any accounts as far as ROI. Yet when I subtracted out the CT/Short trades, both winners and losers that I made over this time frame, I would have had a return of 52%. Of course, the CT trades have torn a small hole in my profit figures
Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda definitely, but this review has made me realize that trading only with trend outright is the best approach for my trading style. For me, lesson learned!!!!!!!!! Yes, same here
I just wanted to share my personal experience. It's great to have your group for reflection and insight, as in the end it's greatly improving my trading. Can't wait for the result in the next 4 months;-) Back to basics...boring but definitely more profitable

Email 8
This is from one of our lady traders who described how she trades to a friend of hers
1/ My mind is only set to go long
2/ I will look for cheep prices to get in
3/ If i am wrong then i will use AH
4/ I will only trade with the trend long or short
5/ If it means only 2 3 or 4 trades per month so be it
These are the rules i told my friend. I think that they are excellent rules...I think I might try those Think less
Do more. Thanks for reminding me !!!!

Email 9
Dear Jacko,Quote: "To those who followed my Counter Trend trades, I apologise."
My thoughts:
1. Trading is a mental game.
2. I benefit more from watching Jacko deal with the mental side than I could ever do by following an entry or exit on a single trade.
3. I can handle a winner. How many of us can handle a loser on big lots? Yet you take it on the chin and accept that being stopped out by 10 pips is just part of the game. This is where the lesson is for most of us turtles.
4. You said it yourself "trading is an attitude of risk to reward".
Successful trading is not about getting a perfect system. Its about how we deal with wins and losses.

What I learned from watching you:
1. No trade is guaranteed, no matter how many fundamental and otherwise logical reasons we have for any
trade.
2. Even with 15+ years of experience and laser beam focus on a single pair, there will still be losses and sometimes they'll be big.
3. There are ALWAYS opportunities for woulda/shoulda/coulda. (Coulda had a stop of 110. Could had a trailing stop to limit the losses. Coulda moved stop to Break Even when the change was presented). Even on a winner.....trading gives us the  woulda/coulda/shoulda. Its something we have to live with, even with a winning trade.
4. If you haven't bet the ranch then a couple of losses is no big deal
5. The trend is your friend, even when you think its not.
Thank you for being so open and sharing your trades with us. We benefit more from watching how you deal with the pain of trading than we do from watching you celebrate the pleasure.
Thank you for your kind words

Email 10
Well, I was in the group of people who was letting you live-test the CT strategy for the rest of us. In the end, it
was a valuable lesson really. Expensive is a better word...LOL


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 89

It is 7.38am NY time Monday April 14 and the market is at 1.5867

I have returned to Florida over the weekend for a family get-together and to execute some documents at our attorneys offices regarding my late father over the next three days. After a gruelling 21 hours travelling between Hong Kong and Florida yesterday (?) , I have just woken up. I have just got up out of bed after receiving a wake up call from Mark. It is 7.18 am here (Florida)

Having said that, lets see what is happening. The market was whacked about the head on the weekend due jawboning of the to the G7 meeting. However, the curious thing is the amazingly stubborn weakness of the US dollar.

There is something VERY, VERY SERIOUS going on in the US financial markets that the major banks are aware of (and we are not). The Central Banks are trying to jawbone the Euro down and the market (that is Investment Banks and traders) is just pushing it straight back up...

I am just going to have a shower to wake up and then get back here to see what is happening.

Edit 8.30am NY time Bloombergs states that "The dollar gained earlier after the G-7 said it would ``monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate,'' a sign to some traders that it would support the greenback. (that is sell the Eur)
The change in the G-7 statement was the most significant since the Boca Raton, Florida, meeting in February 2004, when officials cautioned against ``excess volatility.'' The latest statement didn't explicitly mention the dollar or suggest plans for intervention, in which central banks arrange purchases or sales of foreign exchange.
(Uh oh...I don't like that... If you are in the market at the moment...market at 1.5870... be VERY careful...ECB intervention may not happen today, but it may happen very soon...)
If I was a wild punter like Newbietrader, I would be shorting this market at these levels...but my days of Counter Trend trading are over and so I am prepared to wait. The ECB is warming up for a move.
Either that or as I said in Message 87 "....if it breaks upwards, it shows me that the banking problems in the US and Europe are far, far worse than they have been saying".

Edit 8.45am NY time Newbie trader is short at 1.5860

Edit 10.25am NY time Newbie is still in...had a scare back at 1.5861 but he says that he is staying in ....market at 1.5856...
Edit 10.25am NY time I have to go to meeting with attorneys...back later
Edit 11.25pm NY time It has been a full day. Market has been slow in my absence. Newbietrader is still short at 1.5860. (Market is at 1.5821)

Emails

I am a little behind on answering your emails due to wasting so much time in flight over the weekend...I will answer all of them as soon as possible

Also as outlined a week ago I have changed my email addresses due to (supposedly) better virus checking and spam control by Gmail (compared to Yahoo).

Please adjust my email address:

For the first group, my email is now waynejackson888@Gmail.com

For the second group, my email is now waynejackson777@Gmail.com

Please help me by changing these emails now as I wish to close the Yahoo accounts as soon as possible to prevent a repeat of the virus attack that occurred on April 1. Also, I will be answering any unanswered emails in the Yahoo email box from a cybercafe until I am sure that my system is safe.