MESSAGE FROM JACKO 437

It is 1.00am NY time Friday August 28 and the market is at 1.4360

After my previous trade was closed on the 50% Fib line, I stated that I was waiting for the bounce back up to the Resistance Line at 1.4350 so that I could SELL it again.
The market rose as high as 1.4405 and then started falling back.
I sold at 1.4365 which was 15 pips better than my original target.
I am now letting the trade play itself out, but I am desperately trying to get more than 46 pips so as to get the Fund to over 2000 pips.

On that note , today is the 1 year anniversary of the Fund's very first trade. You may recall that the Fund was officially launched on August 8 2008. By sheer good luck (LOL), that was the exact same day that the Great Financial Crisis and the explosion in volatility started. How lucky am I ??!! But the first trade was on August 28, 2008

In a time of the absolute worst possible trading conditions for Trend Trading, we have earned 1,954 pips and a return of 40% using a super conservative risk of just 2% capital risk on any one trade. (If we had used 5%, we would have doubled our money…). I am hoping that todays trade will get me over the 2000 pip line which will give us even better numbers.

More importantly, we have been through the worst of it…In the last two months we only had ONE losing trade…. and our A-H trade got it all back plus more

The performance of the Jackson Fortress Fund blog can be seen here:http://www.jacksonfortressmembers.blogspot.com/

User ID......... jacksonfortressaccess
Password.......jacksonfortress

Since the Fund's trades are the same as MY trades and are the same trades that I send out to each of you, this is also summary of the exact trades that I have sent out to members over the last 12 months

NOTE: The percentage returns of the Fund and my own personal accounts are to be treated as Private and Confidential. I do not want my personal income details and the Funds returns posted on FF (or any Forum) where they can be trashed by ignorant trolls. That stuff is then kept in the public domain forever, even if what they say is absolute rubbish,and will have an impact on the future growth of the Fund. I expect each member to be responsible regarding this information and sensitive to the immaturity of some forum participants.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4334 I am content to let my short from 1.4365 play itself out. It had a big run up yesterday afternoon NY time on the back of a very successful (well bought) $28 Billion auction of 7 year T-Bills. (look out, China is back in buying up USD assets again). Because today is Friday, I will be closing my position today. My initial target is that the market is heading to the previous low of the low 1.4200's but I want to be out so I will be targetting 1.4250 as a nice exit today. I will SMS my target as we get closer, as I might try to squeeze some extra pips out of this move

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4370. The European session has taken the market up from its lows of 1.4324. I am continuing to let the trade play itself out.
Now might be a good time for me to repeat my warning that that I say every couple of months:
I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading and WHY.
I don't ask people to follow only my trades. My trades are simply MY trades,... some of the group trade my trades PLUS their own
My positions are to find a good medium term target, place the order, place a Stop Loss and then let the trade play itself out. IF you are uncomfortable with anything in ANY of my trades, feel free to use your own discetion

Edit 12.10pm NY time. Market is at 1.4353 I suspect that this market is going to be sent down in the thin US afternoon session and early next week. I am therefore going to do something very unusual...I am going to keep my positions open over the weekend and look at the market again next week.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 436

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday August 27 and the market is at 1.4250

Our short trade yesterday from 1.4340 to 1.4210 resulted in a another pleasant profit of 130 pips.
I am again looking to go short, but am prepared to wait until it goes back up to our Resistance line (see Mondays blog) which is now sitting at around 1.4325-1.4350.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4250. The market is in no-mans between the Resistance line and the Support lines outlined on Monday. It has hit the 50% Fib line so the probability is that it will bounce upwards from there. I am waiting for it to return near the Resistance line and will look to SELL it down again

Edit 8.00am NY time market is at 1.4280 The market is still in no-mans land on the 4H charts, sitting between the Support and Resistance lines (as outlined on Monday). . As expected it has bounced off the 50% fib Line of 1.4210 yesterday and has moved back up. I will be waiting patiently at the 1.4350 mark to slap it on the head again

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.4266 The market is just gyrating around the 1.4250 mark. Not much happening. I will wait for my 1.4350

Emails (Three good emails)


Email 1
It's amazing how it exactly touched the resistance line and then went back down...No...thats the point...it is NOT amazing...it does it all the time...Or at least with a very high probability...but sometimes it stops just short or just long so you have to be prepared to buy or sell it "near" the Resistance line
Which goes back to my question, how to know when to enter... seems to be a sort of bet each time: Of course it is...EVERY investment is
- if I don't wait for the market to go back to the resistance line I risk selling at too cheap a price. Yes
- if I wait for the market to touch the resistance line I risk never entering the market...Yes
Besides, it may also touch and break out... how do I then know that it's a false break out? I guess I don't...Thats what SLs are for
I'd still be interested to know how you watch that bloody market to be reasonably certain you are entering and AA+ trade...You are never certain. But I am a strong believer that the market is going down soon, so my AA+ trades are trades in the short direction...the trades where we are going long are the ones that concern me

Email 2
Can you give one of your more backward pupils a real cat-sat-on-the-mat explanation as to why we're selling south based upon the 300 period 4HTF please.. I think that the market is moving sideways in a range between 1.3850 and 1.4350 since early June and is currently at the high end of that range. Now IF it is moving sideways, it means that the bull run up to early June has run out of steam,so it is heading for the basement. For those two reasons the northern train looks a bad probability to me

Email 3
I am really enjoying trading with you, it is working out well, I am making money and will shortly be increasing my lots. Excellent
A very important question from a nervous trader like me! How do you hold your nerve until the market hits your target? To fine tune your trading, watch the times that the market "turns" especially just before London opens and just before US opens and just before US lunch....It helps in a situation like yesterday and reduces the panic
On this last trade the big drop on the 1hr chart bottomed out at 1.4215 (very close to the 50% at 1.4210), it then retraced back to 1.4243 a scary 28 pips in the wrong direction. How do you avoid the temptation to close out while the going is good, instead of hanging in for the big prize? I thought that it would come back down to my 1.4210 because it was still early in the morning US time and it usually reverses just before lunch

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 435

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday August 26 and the market is at 1.4295

My Short trade at 1.4340 is progressing nicely. I am letting the trade play itself out. The first target is the 1.4200 area which is the 50% Fib line.

NOTE: I have received emails from almost every one of you about the 50% Fib numbers in Mondays blog. There is an obvious typo caused by the flu, too much brandy and too little loving from Mrs Jackson (who did NOT want to catch the flu...LOL). It should have read as:
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.4048 (August 17) to 1.4375 (August 21) and is at 1.4200

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4310. The market is moving up marginally ...probably on the approaching news of the German IFO numbers coming out at 4.00am NY time. My trade is still playing itself out

Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4270. I am continuing to let my short trade at 1.4340 play itself out. I will probably look to take a profit at the 50% Fib area of around 1.4200 (or just above it at 1.4210).

It is 9.35am NY time. The market is dropping nicely. I WILL be closing my Short trade from 1.4340 at 1.4210. We can get back in again later with another short when the market bounces back up.

Edit 11.27am NY time I have just closed all my Shorts from 1.4340 at 1.4210 for a 130 pip profit.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 434

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday August 25 and the market is at 1.4302

My original intention to take a SELL trade at 1.4335 (a pre-emptive A-H trade) would have been a good trade. However, in an attempt to make it into an AA+ trade, I was holding off for a price closer to the 1.4380 Resistance line. On the basis that the market has dropped down to as low as 1.4273, then perhaps I should have been more adventurous. I am looking again for a position to SELL this market down

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4260 I am annoyed that I am missing this market fall. I am still hopeful that I can get back into this market on the SELL side. I may have to wait for later in the day. I am looking at getting back in on a retrace back up (hopefully above 1.4300).

Edit 8.ooam NY time Market is at 1.4329 I am a SELLER at 1.4335 or Higher. An SMS has just been sent. I will send another SMS as I make the trade.

It is 9.03am NY time The market is at 1.4340 I have just sold at 1.4340 I have a 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss. An SMS has just been sent

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4327. I sold a little early as it moved up towards the 4H Resistance line, but I wanted to ensure that I was in the trade. I am now letting the trade play itself out

Emails

Email 1
Can you please confirm or otherwise the following statements (using the 4Hr chart):
1. 75% (approx) of the time price will bounce off Support & Resistance lines Yes... what I mean here it will bounce off and countinue in its opposite direction. Yes
2. If price does NOT bounce off the Support & Resistance lines and goes through and closes past it by say 100 pips then we have a possible change of direction. Yes
3. The possible change of direction is normally confirmed by a confirmatory touch of the previous Resistance (now turned support line) and Support (now turned resistance line) lines. Yes
4. So all we really need to do is wait for relevant trading opportuities off these lines.Yes
5. By setting our Stop-Loss we know what the worst case is/could be - normally a maximum of 100 pips from entry. Yes
6. In terms of TP targets we never really know what this could be. But we have potential targets in terms of 50% Fibs and resistance/support lines ..... we could use these in assisting us when we want to set take-profit targets.Yes
7. As an alternative to setting a target in 6. above we could where the support/resistance lines and/or the 50% Fibs are FAR AWAY let profits run by using a 100 TSL for example. Yes

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 433

It is 1.00am NY time Monday August 24 and the market is at 1.4332

The market has not reached 1.4385 which is the point which would activate my short Anti-Hedge trade at 1.4335 which is where I was Stopped Out in my last trade.
However the market is back at the price where I was stopped out so I have to make a decision as to whether to get back in at the price I was Stopped out at (on the expectation that it will go down) or do I wait for the 1.4385 to be hit (on the expectation that the market may still bounce up higher. I will wait for more guidance from London.

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4446 (Aug 5) , and 1.4375 (Aug 21) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4380.
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.3832 (July 8) and and 1.4048 (Aug 17) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4100.
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.3832 (July 8) to 1.4048 (August 17) and is at 1.4200

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4290 Late Asian trading and pre-London trade is showing weakness. I have decided to get back into the action of the last trade. As shown below, I was Stopped Out by that trade at 1.4335. I would be prepared to SELL at around that point and get back into the trade.

Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4328 I am still making up my mind as to whether I still want to sell at this price level or see if it goes up a little further closer to the Resistance line. I will send an SMS if I decide to SELL.

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market is at 1.4322 The market doesn't have any great momentum and is sticking around the 1.4325 area. I am still watching to see if it goes up a little further closer to the Resistance line. I will send an SMS if I decide to SELL.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 432

It is 1.00am NY time Friday August 21 and the market is at 1.4215

The market has done very little in the last 24 hours. The price is the same as this time yesterday but the bias has moved to the downside. I am still letting my SOLD at 1.4235 trade play itself out.

The last couple of Fridays have seen some big moves after very subdued Mon through Thursdays. I am hoping to see a repeat of that today on the downside. As discussed yesterday, If it breaks down, it will head towards the Support line from 1.3832 (on July 8) and 1.4045 (on Aug 17) which is now at about 1.4075. The first target would be the 50% Fib from 1.4045 (Aug 17) to 1.4266 (Aug 19) which is at 1.4150.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4240 The market has moved up marginally. I am still content to just let this trade play itself out a little longer.

Edit 8.00am NY time. Market is at 1.4335 The market has jumped up quickly on much better than expected French and German Manufacturing PMI numbers and has hit my Stop Losses.
This is the first loss in some time so I will now wait to activate an Anti Hedge trade to re-coup my loss. I will now let the market go a minimum of 50 pips past my SL to 1.4385 and will then place an order to SELL at my original SL at 1.4335. That will ensure that when the market has risen and peaked and then begins to fall back, it picks up my trade at where I was Stopped out and continues moving back down thereby re-couping my loss. (However, I will not be placing the order today because it is a Friday....I will hold the order over until Monday).

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4322. The market has reached a high of only 1.4376 so A-H has not been triggered yet.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 431

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday August 20 and the market is at 1.4220

Well, my impetuous and impulsive "BUY the retracement" trade at 1.4135 was closed yesterday at 1.4250 for a 115 pip profit.
And, as I said on Tuesday, "I personally will be waiting for it to retrace to the 1.4250-1.4300 area so that I can sell it, because the 4H trend is now downwards" I was a bit slow in reacting because of the flu but after closing the "buy the retracement" trade, I chopped and reversed and I sold at 1.4235 and am looking to ride the trend down to 1.4100-1.4150. I am now letting the trade play itself out

Edit 3.30am NY time Market at 1.4223. I am still letting my SOLD at 1.4235 trade play itself out

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4235. The market is repeatedly bouncing down off the Resistance line which is shown by linking all the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4447 (on Aug 5) and 1,4413 (on Aug 7) and 1.4266 on (Aug 19) and which is now at around 1.4250.
If it breaks down, it will head towards the Support line from 1.3832 (on July 8) and 1.4045 (on Aug 17) which is now at about 1.4075.
The first target would be the 50% Fib from 1.4045 (Aug 17) to 1.4266 (Aug 19) which is at 1.4150

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4230 I am letting my trade play itself out

Please hold off on sending me any emails for the next couple of days UNLESS they are extremely URGENT (such as if you are not getting the SMSes or you are having difficulty accessing the blog). I am trying to recover from the flu and Mrs Jackson does a screaming war-dance every time I try to answer an email. I should be fine after the weekend.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 430

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday August 19 and the market is at 1.4152

My impetuous and impulsive BUY trade at 1.4135 from yesterday is still playing itself out. (Your scribe has a flu at the moment and I would like to blame it on the drugs I have been taking and the loss of blood from the sample they took ....Have you seen the size of a syringe lately?...I am sure they took 20 gallons of blood from me).

Mrs Jackson has confined me to bed :) ... Alone :(

It was probably the least disciplined trade entry I have taken since I started this blog. However, it has had a shaky start but I am still looking at a first target of 1.4250+

Edit 3.25am NY time Market is at 1.4095 The market has moved lower but London has not done anything extreme. I am not in love with this trade but I will let it play itself out for a little longer.

Edit 2.20pm NY time Market is at 1.4250 I apologise for missed Edits at 8.00am and 12.15pm but have been in a deep sleep from the flu. I have just closed my position at 1.4250 for a 115 pip profit. I will be back tomorrow

Edit 2.55pm NY time The market is at 1.4236. The market has hit my SELL target at 1.4250 so I have dragged my sorry ass out of bed again. I have decided to get back into the market again. I am a SELLER at the current price.I have just SOLD at 1.4235. A 100 pip Fixed SL

Emails

Email 1
I have a question about how you draw your Fib's, you mention that you draw them between the most recent high and recent low. However reading between the lines a bit, am I right in saying that you pull up a 300 period 4hr, and then draw a line at the high a low of the most significant move in that timeframe ? Yes, but I see 50% Fibs as a series of targets. I work out all the 50%fibs starting from the RIGHT hand side and working to the left...So I have a series of 50% targets. If I am in a trade, as it hits a 50% fib, I then look to see whether I want to close out or hold and head to the next 50% fib

Email 2
I would like to ask you about some fundamental issue. As far as I know, every country at the moment wants their currency to be weak to have a better environment in their international trade activities. Yes, so they can increase their exports
The question I am having here is that how China wants the dollar to be.They want the USD to be strong (The Yuan to be weak) so that they can export more to the US
I remember you mentioned about this that China wants the dollar to be strong so that their dollar assets become secure, also they can export products to US at better condition.Yes
But, what about US? How they want the dollar to be? Don't they want the dollar to be weaker? Yes, but China is keeping it strong by buying as much T-Bills as the US can put out. The US is NOT in control of their currency...China has the ability to ensure that the USD remains strong, and the US cannot do anything about it

Email 3
this guy on TV really got to me the other day. He was discussing about whether anyone (China) would continue to buy U.S. bonds and what would happen if they didn't. I recall some relief when the bonds did in fact sell. I now heard that within 10 days of that sale almost 1/2 of those bonds were resold to the US treasury which of course simply printed money out of thin air. Is this the shell game I think it is? Yes
I have also heard that the US govt might be not only promoting inflation but counting on it to pay for some of these new programs and with the intention of saying they are not raising taxes but in fact collecting taxes on a larger pot due to inflation (10% of $1000 instead of 10% of $100). Yes..You are starting to see the games all politicians play
You seem very in tune with the movements of the US financial machine. Are these accusations, to the best of your knowledge correct? Oh yes...but they are not new...That is why Nixon went off the Gold standard for example
Doesn't this seem like a lot of accounting tricks that are designed to fool the American people? Oh yes... but what is new about that?...LOL
What do you see as the longer term implication of all of this? The continuing break down of the American empire due to political parties and the wealthy banking elite abusing the whole system. We Americans will just become gradually poorer compared to other parts of the world (China, India, Russia and Brazil...the BRIC countries) which will be increasing in wealth and power in the next 20 years

Email 4
I know you think China will not let it decline further with all the USD holdings they got but other then this view based on fundamentals is there data in the PA/chart to support this, please? Yes, have a look at the 4H chart since very early June..the market is moving sideways which indicates that the previous move up has lost its strength and then will start to weaken

Email 5
Going through your blog I see that your sources of fundamental analysis come from the "Financial Times" (London), "South China Morning Post" (Hong Kong), and the "Business Times"(Singapore) Can you direct me to where you find your editorials in these newspapers online, or who your favorite columnists are? These are financial papers (no stories about Britneys latest weight loss...LOL)...the Editorials sections are written by experienced Financial Editors who know their stuff

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 429

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday August 18 and the market is at 1.4102

The market dropped to a low of 1.4044 yesterday and has started to move back up. Those of you who are adventurous might want to buy this market 1.4100 or less. The probability of it going down much below the 1.4055 is quite low. I personally will be waiting for it to retrace to the 1.4250-1.4300 area so that I can sell it, because the 4H trend is now downwards

Edit 3.00am NY time The market is at 1.4130 This market is moving up. Again, I repeat, those of you who are adventurous may want to buy this market at the low 1.4100's.

(NOTE, I only SMS message my own trades. But I do place opinions on where the market may be heading for the more adventurous traders)

Edit 3.15am NY time Market at is at 1.4132 I decided to join the adventurous traders and have just BOUGHT at 1.4135 THIS IS A SPECULATIVE TRADE (Some of the adventurous traders are in lower than me...but I am not concerned.) I have a 100 pip Fixed SL The target is around 1.4250+

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4102 Earlier today, I was talking with some of the more adventurous traders who bought in to this market at around the 1.4100 price and decided to take a somewhat impulsive trade at 1.4135. I have a 100 pip Stop Loss and am now letting the trade play itself out.

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4130 After a shaky start to the trade, the market is now back to where I bought and is now moving in the right direction. I am letting the trade play itself out

Emails

Email 1
I would like to comment on two of your notes. In 424 you regretted to have bought too early at 1.4140, since it was followed by a subsequent low at 1.4104. Yes In 427, you were disappointed because your 1.4350 entry point was never reached, making you miss an opportunity. It seems to me that these are two excellent opposite examples showing how difficult it is to find an optimal entry in the market. It is very difficult to pick exact tops and bottoms
My take is that most of the time there is no way to know where the market will go next. I think that the statement that no-one knows where the market is going (which some traders say), is a bit of a false statement. Most good traders can pick the general direction of where the market is heading, but picking the beginnings and endings of them is more difficult
I wonder, though, if you have a general rule of thumb to decide how or where to place your entries in a range like this one in order to miss as few trades as possible and still have the best possible entries? To be just a little beyond the S&R points to allow for the volatility (especially in the last 12 months). However that volatility is now getting lower so I will start reducing the allowance for the volatility
Talking about ranges, are you watching specific signs to guess whether the market is likely to break out of the range (as it did on the 3rd) which causes swing trades to reach their S/L or is the idea to try all trades from support to resistance and from resistance to support until one fails because the market breaks out? It was to try all trades from support to resistance and from resistance to support until one fails because the market breaks out, because this happens many more times than the breakout

Email 2
The question is: why would brokers trade against their clients only during news announcements? My hypothesis is that big brokers trade against their client whenever they can. Yes but the speed of the action in the period straight after the news allows them to play unscrupulous games like widening the spread etc, etc
During normal hours they are not strong enough to move the market. When news are about to come, the big players (banks, hedge funds) all cancel their orders or close their positions to avoid being trapped in a runaway market with huge slippage and spread, whereas private traders who ignore this fact stay in the market, becoming suddenly completely vulnerable to market manipulation by big brokers (since big brokers become the biggest player during these transient moments) Yes, Exactly you are at a HUGE disadvantage when you are trading the news

Email 3 -
first, concerning tracing support and resistance lines. As far as I understand it, your 'graph memory' is, generally speaking, 300 periods on a 4H graph. Is that correct? Yes
Then you look at the lines which touch as many extrem points as possible. Correct? Yes (what about the 12th August? It broke the support line, isn't that a case for lowering the support line?) August 12 was an "aberation ". The charts are never exact and sometimes you will see a rise or a drop that is "out of line" It is often best to ignore the abberation and connect up more points on the chart -
then, concerning Fib retracements. Can we say that on the same graph (300 periods on a 4H graph), you just take the lowest and highests points and that's it? (does it make sense to also take 50% fib retracements for the most recent swings like the one between the 12th low and the 13th high? or from older lows and highs?) I prefer to see the 50% fibs as a series of targets for a price move, So I start from the extreme right of the chart and use the series of Fib targets generated by starting on the right hand side and working to the left of the chart
- my final question is about the last sentence in your blog "I am expecting the market to bounce up from both the Support line and the 50% retracement point at around 1.4140. However, over the week, this market will go down". What makes you expect a retracement (is it the usual swing that can be expected within a range?) Yes, (though I was wrong on this... it broke through the Support Line and the market dropped like a shot duck) and what makes you expect it to go down (is it the fact that the range is ending soon and the fact that the general trend in higher units is bearish?)Yes, the USD has bottomed and is now in recovery

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 428

It is 1.00am NY time Monday August 17 and the market is at 1.4150

My SELL order at 1.4350 on Friday was a little too ambitious. As I said last Monday (and again on Thursday), " in the short term I can see the market moving back up to that 1.4338 area. But in the longer term, after it hits that Resistance line at 1.4338, I think this market is heading down". Unfortunately the market only rose as high as 1.4326, then headed down leaving us stranded with our pants around our ankles.

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4446 (Aug 5) , 1.4413 (Aug 7 ) 1.4326 (Aug 13) and 1.4306 (Aug 14) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4300.
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.3832 (July 8) and 1.4006 (July 29) and 1.4014 (July 30) and 1. 4106 (Aug 12) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4150.
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.3832 (July 8) to 1.4446 (August 5) and is at 1.4140
I am expecting the market to bounce up from both the Support line and the 50% retracement point at around 1.4140.. However, over the week, this market will go down. I am again looking to go short at the Resistance line at 1.4300

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4151 The market is sitting just above the Support line and is at the 50% Fib line. I will wait for my short at 1.4300

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4055. The 30 minutes before the London open gave a deceptive signal. It rose strongly (which usually carries through into the first half of the session) but today, it reversed on the open and has been dropping all through the London session. I continue to wait for an opportunity to sell at a much higher price . The current price is too low for me. The probability of it continuing to fall in the US session is too low and too risky for me. I will wait for the inevitable rebound and then Sell it.

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4075 The market has been subdued in NY trading after the declines in European trading. The market is too low to sell at these prices. It is best to wait for a better price

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 427

It is 1.00am NY time Friday August 14 and the market is at 1.4267

My target of 1.4350 for a SELL was not hit yesterday. It rose up close, but reached a high of only 1.4326. My order is still in place but I am considering reducing the price. The last two Fridays have seen some sizable moves in the thin trading and I am considering joining the Friday forex buffet table. (It is an all-you-can-eat EUR and USD feast).

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4265 The market has barely moved. I am hoping that it will move up closer to my 1.4350 order, so that I can sell it at a higher price than the current price. It is too low at the current price for me to sell it. I can wait for a better price.

Edit 7.55am NY time Market is at 1.4295. I am watching this market moving up. I am leaving my order at 1.4350. It has a 100 pip Fixed SL.

Edit 9.00am NY time Market at 1.4270 Damn... I wonder if I have missed it. Market has topped out at 1.4305 I was hoping for one last lunge up to 1.4350. It is a Friday and I am not sure what I want to do. As you know I don't like trading Fridays..... The SELL at 1.4350 order is still in place

Edit 10.00am NY time Market at 1.4235 The market has got away from me. It barely retraced at all on the way down too. I am cancelling my SELL at 1.4350 order. No need to SMS as you will have all day to cancel it.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4211 I am disappointed that I missed a good trade opportunity. But the market will still be here next week and so there will be other opportunities.

Emails

Email 1
Do you recommend just leaving up 4 hour chart during trading and not looking at lower time frames even after the trade is executed? Yes, other wise you get tempted to make silly decisions because the chart movements look so dramatic on the lower time frames and causes you to want to jump in and open/close a trade when it is just noise

Email 2
Real quick question, I can't really find the answer to it anywhere. IF we have a bull move from 1.3600 to 1.4000 our 50% fib would be 1.3800 Yes , say we pass the 50% fib and drop to 1.3700 from 1.4000 so this would make our new 50% fib retracing up at 1.3850. Yes Does the original 1.3800 50% retracement from the original move up hold any value ? Yes I use the 50% fib primaily as "targets" that the market tries to move to...I dont always use them as a place to open a trade. They are more targets to aim for AFTER you have opened a trade. I also see them as Cascading targets , so in the example above , the first target would be 1.3850, and then when it gets there I would look at the price action to see if I wanted to hold for the next target of 1.3800.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 426

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday August 13 and the market is at 1.4219

Well, we got lucky again yesterday. We scored another 82 pip profit to add to the bank account. The decision to close the trade prior to the FOMC was the right decision because it dropped down. However the market bounced straight back up so staying in would have been a correct decision too.

I am tempted to get back into a long position because I think that the market may still have an attempt at reaching the 1.4300 mark. It is not an AA+ trade, but I will be watching the London open for the potential for another trade. As I said early in the week, in the short term I can see the market moving back up to that 1.4338 area. But in the longer term, after it hits that Resistance line at 1.4338, I think this market is heading down.

Edit 3.25am NY time The market is at 1.4250. The market has jumped up on German and French GDP economic data. The long trade is now a very marginal trade as it is close to the Resistance. I am now becoming more interested in looking for a more favoured Short position based on it bouncing down from the Resistance at 1.4338 and continue the downward trend

Edit 7.40am NY time The market is at 1.4268 I am stepping out to a brokers presentation but I have placed my Limit Order to SELL on Stop at 1.4350. I am not sure if it will get that high this morning (US time) but if it does I am a SELLER at 1.4350 (which is just above the Resistance line).

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4288. I have returned to find that the market has not gone up far enough to trigger my order. It has risen to a high of only 1.4326. My order will stay in place for a little longer

Emails

Email 1
I do have a question regarding the FOMC statement. After the FOMC statement, the market came down about 100 pips, then it moved back up to where it was. The question I am having is what made the market to come down nearly 100 pips. A lot of that movement is simply the really big brokers trading against their clients....The market had moved up in the preceding hours so the brokers know that the buyers would have tightened their stop losses (so there are a lot of Stop Loss/SELL orders). So the big brokers start selling hard on the announcement , triggering the Stop Losses /SELLS and that drives the market lower triggering more Stop Losses/SELLS . When the Stop Losses have all been triggered, the brokers start buying all their initial SELLS back, forcing the price up. It was nothing to do with market sentiment. It was quickly whipping a market down using a news event. Thats why I have always said that "trading the news" is like being a fish swimming in shark infested waters. (See Post number #7 in my thread at FF )

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 425

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday August 12 and the market is at 1.4147

My buy at 1.4140 is still in place and I am letting the trade play itself out. Having said that, the market has been remarkably sluggish since my buy and has been doing very little.

The big news is that there is an FOMC Statement today at 2.15pm NY time. As discussed previously, the FOMC Statement and he NFP announcements are the two biggest "news" market movers. Subject to where the market is during the US morning session, I may close my trade and sit out the FOMC announcement.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4120 The market has moved down 20 pips below my buy price. Thats not where I like it to be but I am still prepared to let the trade play itself out.

Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4150 . This trade is really making me work for my money at the moment. It has cracked through the 1.4100 line but quickly bounced back up. I will be looking to possibly exit this trade before the FOMC statement

Edit 12.10pm NY time The market is at 1.4240. The market has moved up and we are now 100 pips in profit. I have moved my SL to Break Even. The initial target is still the Resistance line at 1.4338 (rounded down to 1.4300).

Edit 1.55pm NY time The market at 1.4222. I have decided that I will close the trade prior to FOMC Statement. (I was tempted to play with the markets money, but decided against it). I have just closed the trade at 1.4222 for an 82 pip profit

Emails

Email 1
what is your normal timeframe preference trading EUR? I have been trading off the 4H charts since the beginning of this year . The huge increase in the volatility late last year made longer (Daily) term trading more difficult, so we pulled our time frame in to 4H to be more responsive. And, we also became much more selective in our trades. Also, because we moved our trading time frame in to only 4H charts, the "trends" that we are trading change much more quickly

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 424

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday August 11 and the market is at 1.4131

My buy was executed at 1.4140 yesterday. I have bought at a price above where I wanted, because I "thought" that the US afternoon session might turn it around. So when I saw signs of it heading back towards the 1.4150 mark at 12.00pm, I decided to buy it at 1.4140 in case it did not go any lower.

As it turned out, the market went close to my target of 1.4100 at the low of 14104. ( I should have been more patient...LOL). I am now letting the trade play itself out

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4155. Good morning Europe. I am still letting my trade play itself out. I am trading off the Support line at 1.4100 (actual BUY at 1.4140) with the expectation that it will head back up towards the Resistance line at 1.4338 (rounded to 1.4300).

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4167. Good morning USA. I am still letting my trade play itself out.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4142 . I am still letting my trade play itself out


Emails

Email 1
I would like to know what made you confident that the market will come down to 4300 level. Any reason? When a market moves out along the chart like it did last week, it usually means that the momentum of the previous direction (which was UP) is losing power..and therefore will go in the opposite direction (that is DOWN)
Email 2
I am just curious while you haven't gone short at all this week (last week) and close at a goal of 1.4338 or 1.4300? I try to only take the A+ trades for myself and more importantly, for the Fund. However, some of the more adventurous traders like to trade more and want to know where I think the market may be going, so I try to give some guidance.
Email 3
My question is: what criteria would make you feel that the market is tightening up for a strong up movement? The range getting progressively smaller over the time period...last week the range was remarkably consistent
Email 4
What should I look for if I want to trade the reversals of each session. Firstly, I think that if you try to trade it every day, you will have only mediocre results..but if you watch it and are very selective on which days it shows strong characteristics, it is a very viable short term method"
Hmmm...I am trying to formulate what I look for...probably the steepness of the rise/fall preceding the 30 minutes before the change of session...the steeper / faster the fall, the more likely that it will reverse as the newer session traders believe that the rise/fall is overdone..and the PROBABILITY of a further extension of that rise/fall gets smaller
Email 5
Firstly from my understanding there are talks of the reccession now being over so with todays jobs report we can see more confirmation of that as fewer people are losing jobs, but why are people buying the dollar. Is that not the currency that people have been running to for safe haven in unsure times ? I don't believe that the safe haven issue is that important at the moment. I believe that we are seeing the "heavy hand" of China again, just like we did a year ago. One thing that the US based media is NOT talking about is the fact that China has gained control of the USD....They are talking about safe havens/ risky assets etc etc etc but NOT the China issue. Being an American "on the outside" now, I can see that the US media either can't see it OR don't want to talk about it

Does the the Dow have anything to do with this ? As investors from overseas invest in the Dow stocks it will increase the strength of the USD, but all the Sovereign Funds are nursing big losses on their purchases last year especially the investements in the big US banks. They are now changing their focuses to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)

Do you watch any other instruments for indication on euro direction e.g (dollar index) ? No...I can see it just by looking at the Eur/USD

I've been struggling with the idea of 100pip stops as I believe that using such a large stop loss means your entry is wrong. Also there isn't always more than 100pips available on a move. Thats why I have been moving to using a target price rather than using TSL's
So is it ok now to use 50pip stops ? They will get whipsawed out in the current market
And when the market finally turns then you can get in again if you've been stopped out? Yes, you can do that, but you will be trading in much shorter time frames than I want to trade.

Do you believe in risk to reward ratios ? No...I know the risk (that is the SL) but the reward is a complete unknown..so it is mental masturbation based on believing that you can state BEFORE the trade is placed where it will go and where you will close the trade..and what do you achieve?

As a trader, Is it ok to use 100pip stops and be satified with trades of 50-70pips profit ? (Might this be because you will get more right) Yes, provided you are not closing them out prematurely. If you are closing them out at close to optimum profit, then it is a good trade. But if you are closing them only because they have hit 50-70 pips profit with no intention of letting any profits run, then you are trading incorrectly

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 423

It is 1.00am NY time Monday August 10 and the market is at 1.4211

Well, Friday was a surprise. Usually Friday afternoon sessions in NY see a flatlining of trading as the big brokers in NY either leave early to get away for the weekend or for a Friday night social event. That is the reason why I don't like to open trades on a Friday. The last two Fridays have seen unusual activity for the time session.

The release of the NFP numbers saw the usual 140+ pip move (1.4413 - 1.4272), in the first 15 minutes after the announcement, but the 120 pip move further down to 1.4153 was the surprise.

So how do we trade this now that the Resistance line turned Support line at 1.4338 has now been broken quite convincingly?? As I outlined last week, I was reasonably certain that the market was going DOWN. Even though it went down to my target and took out 1.4300 line quite easily, I am not certain that that is still the case in the medium term. The charts are still unclear as to an ongoing downward direction.
BUT in the short term I can see the market moving back up to that 1.4338 area.

NOTE It was interesting to note that Friday was the 12 month anniversary of the start of the really big moves down in the EUR/USD from 1.6037 to 1.2328 Even though the market was already moving down from 1.6037, the huge moves coincided with the start of the Beijing Olympics on August 8, 2008. Those of you who were members will remember the start of the extraordinary volatility that saw the Daily Average Trading Range (ATR) increase by some 400%, making 50 pip Stop Losses look puny.
Fortunately we hunkered down and became very selective in our trades which allowed us to post good positive returns while the rest of the industry was being decimated in their asset holdings and their profits. Hedge funds and huge investment banks were imploding, stocks were down almost 50% and property was down the same. And our trading was showing strong double digit positive returns using a maximum of only 2% risk on our trades.
How lucky were we ???!!!

Edit 3.25am NY time Market at 1.4205 It is a long way from the 4H Support Line (1.3832 on July 8...1.4006 on July29...and 1.4014 on July 30) at 1.4100. It is also a long way from the Resistance line at 1.4300. I will wait until it gets closer to one of those lines and then take the "bounce off the line" trade.

Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4192. I am still waiting for it to get closer to either my Support or Resistance line.


Edit 11.35 am NY time The market is getting close to my target of 1.4100 which is the Support line (Rounded down) from (1.3832 on July 8...1.4006 on July29...and 1.4014 on July 30) at 1.4100. Also I am hoping that we will see a turnaround in the afternoon session.. The big risk to this trade is whether we are seeing the heavy hand of China again in the pushdown on the 12 month anniversary. I am a buyer at 1.4150 or lower

Edit 12.01pm NY time I have just BOUGHT at 1.4140. I have a 100 pip Fixed SL



Emails
There ave been some excellent emails over the weekend. I will publish some of them tomorrow

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 422

It is 1.20am NY time Friday August 7 and the market is at 1.4355

This week would have been one of the dullest trading weeks I have experienced in three years. The market has been in a very tight range since Monday lunchtime, but it does NOT have a feel that it is winding up for a big move. There will certainly be a move with the release of the NFP numbers today, but this does not feel like a market that is tightening up for a big release.

However, as I have been saying all week, the bias of this market is down. It has been a dull week but those of you who went short based on my suggestion that it was going down are now starting to see the market move in your direction, without having been exposed to any great upside risk

Edit 3.20am NY time Market is at 1.4368 The market is not showing any great signs of activity in the London session. The big mover will be the NFP news at 8.30am NY time. I would recommend that any traders be very careful at that time as it usually spikes in both diection, taking out Stop Losses with ease. The NFP news is the biggest market mover of all announcements (equal to the FOMC announcements).

On a personal note, Hong Kong is 12 hours in front of NY so when the NFP announcement is made I will be at a 8.30pm Friday night concert. Mrs Jackson says that given dullness of the market this week and the tediousness of checking each of the Statements for the end of quarter for the Fund, I deserve to be taken out on this beautiful Friday night in Hong Kong.

Special Note
For those of you who have emailed me about what I do with the Fund and its progress, the details are below. We are quite proud of our little boutique Fund. If you wish to look at it's progress, go here:

The terms and conditions of the Fund are here
http://jacksonfortress.blogspot.com/
User ID jacksonfortressaccess
P/W jacksonfortress

The performance of the Jackson Fortress Fund blog can be seen here:http://www.jacksonfortressmembers.blogspot.com/
User ID......... jacksonfortressaccess
Password.......jacksonfortress

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 421

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday August 6 and the market is at 1.4404

This market is so dull even my parrot has fallen off his perch with boredom. I am still confident that we will hit my target of 1.4300.
Until then I am staying out of the market as this market is just churning up and down and taking out scalpers and daytraders Stop Losses. (The market psychology is that the market doesn't go very far in their favour, so they don't take the profits .... because they don't think the profits are substantial enough. But then the market reverses and goes against them and takes out their smallish Stop Losses with great regularity...)

Edit 3.05am NY time Market at 1.4394 Oh my god...the market has moved... Hallelujah !!! I am still confident that this will move down to my target of 1.4300 as part of the move down to the Resistance line turned Support for a "confirmation" touch

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4382 Market has been looking weaker in the last 6 hours...It has been having trouble trying to get above 1.4400..without any success. I am STILL hopeful of getting my target soon. This market has been trading in a tiny range since Monday lunchtime but seems to be gradually moving my way

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market at 1.4340 The market is slowly moving down. I will be watching as it gets down to my target area of 1.4300 for the best price to buy.

NOTE...I will be slow on emails today. (I am currently checking that all the Statements for the Fund are correct and being sent out to each of the investors. It is the end of the July quarter for the Fund)

Email

Email 1
You have taught me the smart money is the central banks followed by the huge hedge funds. Yes
Recent price action (PA) is very interesting. The PA has seemed to move counter-intuitively to fundamental news (notably, first the US Advance GDP q/q and, later, the US Pending Home Sales m/m). Yes, that is the "faster" money of the hedge funds and Investent banks looking at riskier asset to get the higher short term returns which is over-riding the normal moves after such news
I can see no answer other than revisions to previously reported numbers affecting the PA as they are baked in -OR- there are now sharks in the water (i.e., central banks). I am of the opposite opinion...I think that the biggest player (China) is sitting on the sidelines but will move in soon to protect its USD holdings
Could it be that the recently wrapped conference has given way to some repositioning by central banks? China doesnt get heavily involved in the markets every day, but the Politburo no doubt has a level it does not want the USD to go past...and the higher the Euro and other pairs go (and the lower the USD goes) the closer we are to another round of USD strengthening...just like a year ago this week
Regardless, does or should this interest us? Only as a background knowledge and to put the moves into "context"
If not obvious in my question - if sharks are in the water now instead of small fish; do we shift from a waiting / coaxing posture (that visual metaphor of the fish and our hook) to a different one? China is the biggest elephant in the forex room now..but the China sovereign funds play a more subtle game than the US "smash and grab" investment banks...but never underestimate the clout China now has. The USD will go where China wants it to go. China is holding $2Trillion in AAA+ assets while the US is now the most indebted nation on earth.
China now has the power to crush the USD but it would be counterproductive to what China wants. China wants a STRONG USD so that China can continue to sell toys, clothes and other trinkets to the US consumer, while it accumulates the largest holding of US securities in history and gut American manufacturing industries. ... I am not saying it is right or wrong...But it is just what is happening

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 420

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday August 5 and the market is at 1.4406

The market continues to be excruciatingly dull. It has only moved 30 pips ( plus or minus ) from 1.4400 since Monday lunchtime NY time. This is when inexperienced traders get sucked into a trade out of boredom and frustration.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4376 I am still keen to go long at around the Round number of 1.4300 but will be watching when it gets there to see if I can get a slightly better price. The Resistance line of 1.4338 has now become a Support line. But, in case you think I have been doing nothing, I have not been lazy while I wait for my target price. I have been busy checking the accounts with the Funds auditors at the end of another successful and profitable quarter.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4417 Market has stayed within the very tight (30 pips plus or minus) range around 1.4400 again in the London session. I am still looking for a retracement back to the Resistance (turned Support) line at 1.4338 or, hopefully, down to the Round number of 1.4300 before considering going long. It is a dull and frustrating market at the moment. But I still believe it will get down to that level for "confirmation" of the break of the resistance line

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4385 The market has been as low as 1.4354 but I believe that it will go lower in the US afternoon session. I am confident that my 1.4300 target will be hit soon.

Emails

Email 1
I wanted to know if there's some basic knowledge about different sessions characteristics what to pay attention to and how the market can react to it, especially if one would like to make intraday trades. The market often (that is , more than 50% of the time) will reverse the direction of the previous timezone about 30 minutes before the start of the London session, the NY session and (to a lesser degree ) the post lunch NY session...It doesn't happen every day, but it happens enough for it to be a viable intraday strategy

MESSAGES FROM JACKO (August 2009)

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 419

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday August 4 and the market is at 1.4380

The market hit a high of 1.444 yesterday so the market has broken out of the 1.3850 - 1.4300 range it has been in for over two months. The Resistance line of 1.4338 will now become a Support line. I will be keen to go long at around the Round number of 1.4300 but will be watching to see if I can get a slightly better price.
Some of the more adventurous traders are trading this down to the 1.4338 level

Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.4397 Market is looking a bit dull. London does not look as though they are motivated for any big moves. The US Pending Home Sales figures at 10.00am is the only real news today. Still waiting for a retracement back to 1.4300 before I get excited.
Some of the more adventurous traders are trading this down to the 1.4338 level

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4376 Market is slowly moving downwards... hopefully to my target area of 1.4300 where I will be keen to buy.

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4400 This mornings session in NY has been excruciatingly dull. Even with the US House Sales news coming in much better than expected (actual 3.6% vs expected 0.6%), the market has barely moved 60 pips all morning


Emails

Email 1
I have a question about your reasoning of holding this last trade (Fridays trade). My reasoning was that since it was in the red so long and coming close to our SL that if it got back to BE i would close because it didnt show much promise from the get go. Hmmm..no, I am a little more patient than that..the fact that it reversed and was heading back to BE made me more confident because it was moving in "my direction"
But i didnt act on my reasoning and decided to follow your call but i would like to know your reason behind not closing it once it got back to around BE, since it went against us so much. All in all at the end of the trade i made 56 pips (kudos) good work
BUT i would like you to teach me how to fish and the reason behind holding it. First lesson is NEVER panic ..your SL was in place....your SL should not be an insane amount of your capital (2% is good)...you should assume that it is already lost...and then just let the trade play itself out




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 418

It is 1.20am NY time Monday August 3 and the market is at 1.4241

The month of July netted us a total of 416 pips for the month. Not bad, but more importantly we are getting a better grip on this ranging market.

We finally had a nice 50 pip win on Friday morning after trying to land that fish for three days. The market then continued to move up in the Friday US session. The market has today moved very close to the previous high of 1.4338 on June 2. I will be watching this as it gets closer to that price

Edit 3.20am NY time The market is at 1.4226.
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4308 (August 2 ) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4300. The previous Resistance point of 1.4338 is becoming critical in importance
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.4006 (July 29) and 1.4014 (July 30) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4050.
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.4006 (July 29) to 1.4308 (August 2) and is at 1.4157

Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4315 The market is at a critical level. It is now at the very top of the 1.3850 - 1.4300 range that it has been stuck in on the 4H charts dating back to late May/ early June. The question to be answered to day is whether today is the day that it finally breaks out of the range that it has been stuck in, or will it fall back down into the range again. I am watching to see which way I wish to trade this. The resistance level of the previous 1.4338 high is critical. This has been building up pressure for over two months and could go either way.

Edit 8.40am NY time Market is at 1.4312 I am watching to see how the market reacts to the 1.4338 level. The pressure to break out of this range has been building up but I am not sure that it has the fundamentals to support it. I t could easily collapse back into the range again. I am not making a decision until the market shows me which is the correct answer. I am not jumping into a 50/50 gamble

Edit 12.07pm NY time Market at1.4425 The Euro has broken out above the range and has moved upwards. I will be looking for a retracement, then getting in. It is likely that it will come back and touch the broken Resistance line turned Support within the next 24-48 hours for confirmation.

MESSAGES FROM JACKO (July 2009) 405 - 417

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 417

It is 1.15am NY time Friday July 31 and the market is at 1.4130

The market has hit a high of 1.4137 and is moving up towards my first target price of 1.4150. I am not is a rush to close out this position so I will be watching the price action for the London session and maybe even the US morning session.
However, I will send an initial notice SMS when I have identified the area the price (probably between 1.4150 and 1.4200) that I will want to close the trade, followed by an SMS as I actually close it.

Edit 3.35am NY time Market is at 1.4114. The market as dropped back marginally but I am comfortable with this trade. I am still content to let it play out some more

Edit 7.00am NY time Market at 1.4134 The market has come back nicely and is again heading towards my initial target of 1.4150. I am moving my Stop Loss to 1.4100 to lock in a guaranteed profit. (Will send SMS in a couple of minutes)

Edit 7.45am NY time Market has hit my initial target of 1.4150 (for a high of 1.4153) but then started to drop. I don't like being in the market on a Friday and did not want to be in the situation of waiting for it to drop further and have to wait for another turnaround. I have just closed out my trade at 1.4135 for a 50 pip profit. (This trade was a hard fish to catch but we got it in the end)

Emails

Email 1
there is something i would like to ask about the way you have been trading this year . Ok
when u have started at dailyfx . u were much more active and in that period of time you were very profitable , and u have made so much money in a very little time ,Yes, forex trading was a novelty .. (especially with an audience...I had never done that before)...and I was more excited in the early days…and the market was trending nicely. Nowadays it is still great fun but it is not "new" to me anymore. But it is a lot easier to me. Also, in those days I could have bursts of high intensity trading and then if the market was slow, I would not make a trade for two weeks.
now you have changed your tactic and you trade much lesser Yes, that level of intensity would have been very difficult to maintain over a longer term. One of the first things Mark said to me was that I had to slow down and get a trading schedule that I could maintain.
( i know the market is hard these days Yes, Great Financial Crises don't happen along every year.... this is a once in a lifetime occurrence (hopefully)
and we have to be careful and pick up the best set up) Yes
lets take for example the trade of yesterday the way you took this trade remind me the way you used to trade at daily fx and it was profitable . and i do beleive even if you have reached 40 percent profit this year , if you have been trading this way ( like yesterday ) like u used to do at daily fx ,u would have reached 200 percent maybe not 40 . Oh, quite possibly...but I could also get 200% on my existing trades just by increasing my leverage by 500%...but I have a Duty of Care to Marks investors (they are all extremely happy...I have not had one withdrawal from that group. And Mark has a long queue of people wanting to invest with us)
almost always the direction u pick up is right !!! and u just sit and watch !!! , why not enter even with less lots , in the time u were in daily fx you didnt use to trade so many lots . and it is still money. Yes...It is just money. And what you are suggesting is that I trade more and use smaller lots...That is heading towards Scalping, which I never want to do. Also, I believe that I give out enough "target prices" that if a person wants to trade more aggressively they can, simply by trading up and down to my target points. Some members of the group are already doing that and achieving excellent results


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 416

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday July 30 and the market is at 1.4050

The market has moved much further than I expected but I am still in the trade. I expected that the market would bounce up from 1.4100 (so I saw 1.4085as a good buy price). However, the market bounced from lower down. Anyway, I am still in the trade and looking to exit for a profit hopefully around 1.4150+
As I said yesterday, I think there will be still more opportunities in the next couple of days to get some SELL positions from higher up (above 1.4200 ?) and some opportunities to even BUY on the way up to those points.

Edit 3.05am NY time Market is at 1.4085 I am letting the trade play itself out.

Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4055 I am continuing to let this trade play itself out

Edit 11.40am NY time Market is at 1.4070 I am still letting this trade play itself out

Emails

Email 1
I don't quite understand the rationale behind the current trade (no intention to challenge you here, just trying to understand). I believe that this market is going down. I have believed that for a while because firstly, it never challenged the previous June 2 high of 1.4338 and secondly, the longer it stayed in the range, the more likely it was going to drop (because there was insufficient momentum or buying interest to keep it going up)
Your early comments (+ published answer to the email) all said you were a seller, yet you chose to buy. My first preference was to be a SELLER, but I missed the opportunity to sell on Tuesday at 1.4270 (I was answering that damn email.....easily, the most expensive email I have ever written).
However the market was also still in a Range of 1.4150- 1.4300.
I wasn't prepared to risk SELLING at close to the bottom of the range, so I took the aggressive option of BUYING at what I thought was close to the bottom of the range . Thats why I was a buyer at 1.4100 or lower.
Would you mind explaning to me the reasons for your move? I thought that the market might go through 1.4100 and I bought at what I thought was a good price. I was surprised when it went as low as it did later in the US session. Having said that, I would have been stunned if it speared through the 1.4100 AND 1.4000 round numbers in one session on no news. So I was reasonably sure that 1.4000 would hold



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 415

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 29 and the market is at 1.4174

The market been as low as 1.4130 and again at 1.4138 and has visited close to the Support line around 1.4100. It has now moved back up to its current price and I am looking for a position to countertrend trade this again like the last couple of successful trades which have scored us some good pips with minimal risk. However, I am looking to sell from up closer to the Resistance line area at above 1.4250.


Edit 3.10 am NY time Market is at 1.4154. I am out of the office at the moment but have been watching the prices in downtown Central HK. I am watching this market bouncing around after spiking down to the Support level. I may consider a buy trade later in the day

Edit 7.50am NY time Market is at 1.4100 The market has dropped all the way down to its Support line at 1.4100. For me, this market has now turned. Even though it hasn't broken the Support line (yet) I would be prepared to call the bull as finished for the next few weeks.
From a technical point, it can be said that the market has turned because it did not break the previous 1.4338 high.
From a fundamental point, yesterdays meeting between China and the US agreed that the strong US Dollar was a good thing. As I said some days ago, China is absolutely desperate to maintain a strong USD so that its (China's) manufacturing does not collapse.
The US is on track for a 10% unemployment rate..... If China had a 10% unemplyment rate there would be 140 MILLION unemployed...with no social security system....China would NEVER risk the social disharmony of this as it would be a risk to the single political party system.
Having said that, I think there will be still more opportunities in the next couple of days to get some shorts positions from higher up (above 1.4200) and some opportunities to even buy on the way up to those points.

Edit 9.00am NY time Market at 1.4100.. The market is bouncing off the long term Support line at around 1.4100. I would prefer to sell from a higher point (it is too low to go short here) so I am going to aggressively trade it back up to the higher levels where I can Sell it again. I am BUYER at 1.4100 or lower. The initial notice SMS has just been sent

Edit 9.40am NY time Market has dropped to 1.4084. It has dropped futher than I thought it would. This is stronger than I thought. I have put my BUY on hold for a little while

Edit 10.00am NY time I have just bought at 1.4085 I have a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss. I apologise for the SMS . I accidentally re-sent the previous earlier SMS. It was a bit frantic here
It took a couple of minutes to see what I had done and then send the new SMS


Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4036 This trade has not gone as I expected. However, I will continue to let it play itself out.

Edit 5.10pm NY time Market at 1.4045 The market has moved much further than I expected but I am still in the trade. I expected that the market would bounce up from 1.4100 (so I saw 1.4085as a good buy price). However, the market bounced from lower down. Anyway, I am still in the trade and looking to exit for a profit hopefully around 1.4150

Emails

Email 1
I'm interested why you keep focusing on EUR weakness. Because I can see the market turning from the move up that lasted until July 20
Looking at the H1 since the beginning of July I can see a pretty clear EUR positive market. What are you seeing that I do not see? I can see a market struggling to maintain an upward movement/momentum
For this week I'm noticing support levels moving up, and the spikes also keep moving upwards = still EUR positive. I don't think so...look at your 4H chart
For this week I'm placing a support area around 4230, which is higher than it was last week. So far, the resistnace of 4300 seems to keep holding up, although I was sure it would be broken this morning, which it didn't. It did ...but only by 2 pips...and that is only because the market is ranging more widely
You say you're looking for a new direction. What are you looking for? I'm looking at retracements for buying opportunities, and would be comfortable buying at 4200 or below, because selling seems riskier in the current EUR bull trend. I disagree...I am looking for retracements to SELL


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 414

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday July 28 and the market is at 1.4253

The market has peaked at 1.4262 and my Shorts at 1.4260 have been stopped out at Break Even. No profit, but no loss either. But I will be soooo peeved if I am stopped out by just two pips....

In reviewing the trade, I should have closed my trade at 12.25 pm yesterday when I moved the SL to Break Even. That was the time I felt the strongest urge to close. (The market was changing direction as it often does at US session lunchtime. The market also often changes direction just prior to London open and and just prior to US open) The reason I didn't close it was that the trade was only 40 pips in profit and I was looking for a longer and more sustained fall...which did not happen. Not an excuse...just an explanation for the trade. Move on to the next opportunity.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4275 The Euro has moved back towards the Resistance levels of 1.4300 (trend line)and 1.4334 (previous high from June 2) reaching as high as 1.4287. The market is not showing as much weakness as previously so I am sitting on the sidelines again for a while and looking for a clearer direction The news event for today is at 10.00am NY time when the Conference Board releases its Consumer Cofindence numbers (not a real market mover). The more important news are the speeches by Mr Geithner at the conclusion of the US-China talks at 4.45pm and 5.20pm NY time

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4222. I was so engrossed in answering a really interesting email from a member that I let the market get away from me at 1.4275. The market has now moved too far to take another counter trend trade.
A missed opportunity... ...But another opportunity will appear very soon...I love trading !

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4152. The missed opportunity would have been an excellent countertrend trade.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 413

It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 27 and the market is at 1.4234

We did well again on Fridays trade. We banked another 38 pips profit. (Mrs Jackson was smiling at me all weekend with love in her eyes...LOL).

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.

The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4290 (July 23) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4300
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3832 (July 9) and 1.3910 (July 14) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4100.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) and is at 1.3650

The market is still sitting in the 1.3800 to 1.4250 range that it has been in since May 21, some 70 days ago, but is currently at the top of the range.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4260 The market is sitting at the highs of this range and looking at the 1.4338 high of June 2 as a potential Resistance target. The market is certainly looking as though it wants to try to break up there. I am sitting on the sidelines for a little longer before I decide my next move.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4287 The market has been knocking on the door of 1.4300 Resistance for an hour and it has been holding....
On the news front, there is the New Home Sales at 10.00am NY time...but more importantly, today is the start of US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue. This has the potential to cause a major move in the USD and all USD pairings. I believe that those discussions may lead to a strengthening of the USD (and drop in the Euro) over the short term. I am looking for a position to go short on another counter trend trade from the Resistance area of 1.4300

Edit 8.35am NY time Market at 1.4260 I am looking to SELL from the Resistance area of 1.4300. The price has started to fall back so I am prepared to Sell at 1.4270 or higher The initial notice SMS is just being sent

Edit 9.15am NY time Market at 1.4260 I have just SOLD at 1.4260. Market was slipping and I wanted to get filled before it dropped any further. (I should have taken the 1.4270's) I have a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss

Edit 12.25pm NY time Market at 1.4217 The market has moved in my profitable direction to a low of 1.4202 and is currently 43 pips in profit. I am prepared to stay in this trade but I am looking to reduce my risk so I am moving my SL to Break Even at 1.4260

Edit 5.00pm NY time Market at 1.4236 The market is wandering around but I am hopeful that Asian trading will take it below 1.4200. I will be targeting 1.4150 (just above the Support line) area for closure.



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 412

It is 1.00am NY time Friday July 24 and the market is at 1.4157

We did well on yesterdays trade. We banked 125 pips profit in 5 hours. (Mrs Jackson is smiling at me with love in her eyes...LOL).

The market has cracked and fallen below the 100 pip range (from 1.4170 to 1.4270) that it had been in for the previous 75 hours. I expect that it will move back into that range before falling again.
Even though it is a Friday, I am looking to sell again today. hopefully around the 1.4200-1.4250 mark.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4200 As expected the market has retraced from the 1.4140 mark back up to inside the 1.4200- 1.4250 trading range. Those of you in the Asian session who traded it on the way up got some nice easy pips. I am looking for a higher entry (possibly around 1.4250) to SELL again

Edit 3.40am NY time Market at 1.4204 I am a SELLER at 1.4250. I have just placed a limit SELL order on Stop at 1.4250. I am now waiting for the market to hopefully reach it. I have a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss (I am just about to send SMSes)

Edit 7.25am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4250. I have a Fixed 100 pip Stop Loss. I will now let the trade play itself out
I will be back at 12.15pm NY time

Edit 12.15am NY time Market at 1.4214 Because it is a Friday, I am about to close my position. I will SMS as I close it I am just waiting for a small drop to squeeze some extra pips

Edit 12.25pm NY time Closed at 1.4212 for a 38 pip profit (SMS going out now) Have a nice weekend

Emails

Email 1
Could you please explain why you felt that the market was ready to turn around for you take the countertrend trade that you made today? I am not bullish on this market for the longer term (next couple of weeks). I think that the USD is not as bad as people are saying....The US is in trouble but it is working hard to get itself out of it
1.4290 is only 20 pips from 1.4270. Did price breaking the previous high (1.4276) from a couple of days ago factor into your decision? Yes, It is moving slightly beyond its highs and lows as the bars are widening, so I was comfortable selling just above the previous high and would have been comfortable buying below the previous low (but was too slow to close there) . The market is still ranging but moving towards a break down soon
How did you know there would be sustained momentum to the sell side? The longer the ranging period goes on , the more likely it will drop...because there is no strength to maintain the move up

Email 2
What's the reason you decided to close at 1.4140? The market had given me 125 in 5 hours...no need to get greedy...Also I am looking for another SELL from a higher point later


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 411

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday July 23 and the market is at 1.4238

As stated yesterday, this is a very quick and dangerous market at the present time and the market is not giving any clear indicators any sustained direction
Also, to keep it in perspective the market is only moving approx 100 pips from high to low. ( The big move yesterday from 1.4155 to 1.4256 was again only 100 pips A trader would have to have been very good to pick that top and bottom....there was no reason to call those numbers)
At the current levels (1.4240+) I am looking to counter trend trade this market (but at higher levels) as I believe there is much more downside than upside. (If that sounds confusing, it is because this market is bullish above 1.4180...but I have doubts as to its strength).

Edit 3.05am NY time Market at 1.4245 This market is too erratic at the present time. I am looking for a clearer opportunity to sell at a high price or to buy at a low price. I am not keen to buy or sell and then have the market spike me out.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4216 The market has been in a tight 100 pip range from 1.4170 to 1.4270 for the last 75 hours. And if you exclude the quick spikes, most of that time has been spent in the 70 pip range from 1.4180 to 1.4250. We are currently dead in the middle of those ranges.
I am looking for an extreme of the range with a distinct preference for a (countertrend) SELL as I believe that the bull is losing its strength. The longer we stay in the range, the more likely that the market will fall out the bottom

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4265 The market has peaked at 1.4290 and is falling I am a SELLER at 1.4250 or higher. The initial notice SMS has just been sent. I am looking for the best position to sell.

Edit 12.23pm NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4265. I am using a 100 pip fixed Stop Loss
(SMSes have just been sent)

Edit 5.00pm NY time I have just closed my trades at 1.4140 for a quick 125 pip profit. (SMSes have just been sent)

Emails

Email 1
I've noticed a lot of debate re where the market is headed and and felt I had to say something. People are asking 'long or short?', and calling the price action indecisive Yes
I found it more profitable to ask: 'on what price can the market agree?' The market very decidedly liked 1.41 last week and 1.42 this week. I've therefore found it quite profitable to make these my target and join any move headed back towards these levels. When viewed this way, ranging markets can be v easy money too. Very clever...simple...But very clever. Thanks

Email 2
Just currious as to why we did not take a buy trade shortly after the counter trend failed on us. Im just looking and it broke a very long term resistance (from july last year) should that not have been a good indication to go bullish??? I was looking at the 1.4150 mark to see if that was hit...If so, I was going to send an SMS that we go long at 1.4150 or lower...BUT i never got there...it only went to 1.4155

Email 3
so Im learning the calendar at Forex Factory and trying to figure out what to look for. I look mostly at the red boxes for the US...
What type of news do you watch for/like to see? The news that causes the biggest moves are FOMC announcements and Non Farm Payroll announcements
And what type of news tell you to enter the market or stay away from the market? You should not enter the market near these announcements
I also dont understand the terminology and how to find what is going on so this is what todays FOMC says "More hawkish than expected = Good for currency" Hmmm...the problem with trying to use these fundamentals is that you will see any situations where the market moves in the opposite diraction to the fundamental logic....Often caused by "buy the rumour, sell the news"


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 410

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 22 and the market is at 1.4191

This tight ranging market...with short infrquent spurts is starting to get irritating...LOL.
After rising to as high as 1.4276, the market has now fallen back below my Stop out point of the previous trade...and now gone all the way back to the 1.4180 Support line again. However, to keep it in perspective the market has only moved approx 100 pips from high to low. (A trader would have to have been good to get out at 1.4276....there was no reason to call that number as a top)
At these levels I am looking to go long, but in the longer term, I am looking to counter trend trade this market as I believe there is much more downside than upside. (If that sounds confusing, it is because this market is bullish above 1.4180...but I have doubts as to its strength).

Edit 3.10 am NY time Market at 1.4185 I am just watching this market at the present time for some clear direction. It is a very indecisive market at the moment.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4205 Good morning America.... The good news is you haven't missed any action overnight. The market has moved a grand total of 48 pips (1.4215 - 1.4167) in the last 12 hours. I am still looking for some clear direction coming out of this market

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market at 1.4217 After a quick drop to as low as 1.4154, the market has charged straight back up to its favoured area of around 1.4200. This is a very quick and dangerous market at the present time and the market is not giving any clear indicators any sustained direction

Emails

Email 1
I re-read your past couple of blog posts, but am unable to follow your rationale for using such a tight SL setting. It was a counter trend trade and I was only 51% certain that it might be just a brief flush out of the shorts
The market has been an elevator ride for a while and there seems no inidcation that volatility is going to decrease - would you agree? Usually, you say high volatility requires wide SL settings, right? Yes, but I was trading against the trend and I was not keen on risking 100 pips on it...I thought the brief flush out would be limited to 1.4150...I was wrong by 25 pips
I had set my SL a little above 4300 figuring this would only get hit if 4200 really is a new support area, and also am looking at the longer time frames and don't see a Dollar bull trend at all, just a bunch of noise A better strategy than mine (in hindsight)
If anything, it looks more EUR bullish. I am under the understanding that you are currently doing some kind of semi-scalping, is that correct? Hmmm...I think that the Euro bull is about to be castrated....Never underestimate the importance of a strong USD to the biggest player in the market (China).... China is absolutely desperate to keep the USD strong to allow the chinese economy to continue to power along
I should have followed you and gotten out at 4190 as well. Now I am "hoping". If you kept your SL at 1.4300, you are safe
Arrrgh, I hate being in that place! LOL ...it is a dark and lonely place
4200 looks like it's becoming a support zone soon. What do you think? Perhaps....I also think that we will see 1.4100 and maybe even 1.4000 again

Email 2
the main problem I am facing is in situations like yesterday/today, when a trend line has been broken and I have to decide if I should switch from selling to buying (I had the same problem just before joining the group when price was breaking the support line week commencing 15th June). What is your advice on how to handle trend reversals? Do I seat and wait? I usually wait for the break, then the return to line for "confirmation...then follow the direction. But this market in the last month or two is just such a tight range followed by a quick spurt..then another tight range , makes it a bit different
I feel like we are snipers who have been given and machine gun that can fire thousands of rounds a minute but we have to be patient and stop firing all over the place to get into quality trades. Oh yes...the bigggest killer of traders is overtrading and over leveraging So I look at the chart much less than I used to and it makes things easier. Yes, and that means it also becomes more sustainable over the longer term...this is a business for the rest of your life if that is what you want (I certainly do because I love trading). It is not something to do at the exclusion of everything else for a short period.... Take a look at the market lately...You couldn't make more trades and make much more money because the market is so tight. We have to wait it out... So a balance in life helps us wait out these tougher periods

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 409

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday July 21 and the market is at 1.4209

I am continuing to let my SELL trade play itself out. I am still short from 1.4228 in a countertrend trade with a very tight SL at 1.4250. My first target is still 1.4180 at which time I will have another look at it to see if the price action is suggesting the lower target of around 1.4100. (I am feeling comfortable with the target of around 1.4100)

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4190 The market is gradually moving south towards the 1.4180 Resistance line. I have two choices: close out at around 1.4180 OR hold on the expectation that London may send it through 1.4180 and down into a more profitable area for my trade. Of course, there is also the third possibility that it will bounce up and take out my SL at 1.4250.
I am holding for the drop to through 1.4180 into a more profitable area

Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.4220 In hindsight, I took the wrong option today. I should have closed out at around 1.4180 because the market dropped to 1.4182 and has now bounced back to the current level. Anyway....I am still letting the trade play itself out.

Edit 9.08am NY time My countertrend trade has just been stopped out for a small 22 pip loss. I am going to go for a walk and clear the head.

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4194 After rising to as high as 1.4276, the market has now fallen back below my Stop out point of the previous trade. No clear trade opportunity is available at the present time so I intend to watch this market for the moment


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 408

It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 20 and the market is at 1.4157

Fridays trade gave us a small 25 pip profit. And in hindsight, closing out when I did was a reasonable result. It was certainly a better result than staying in for later in the day on Friday

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4180 (July 19) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4180
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3832 (July 9) and 1.3910 (July 14) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3950.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) and is at 1.3650

The market is still sitting in the 1.3800 to 1.4250 range that it has been in since May 21, some 60 days ago.
The question is whether today is the day that it attempts to break above the 1.4180 Resistance line and go above the 1.4250 area in an attempt to break clear of the range OR whether we are at the top of the range and the market starts to fall back to the Support line at 1.3950.
The Asian trading session is not a very reliable indicator of the progress of the Euro, especially on a Monday when Asian trading is first out of the blocks. I will wait to see what London is going to do

Edit 6.10am NY time. Market at 1.4230. (I apologise for no 3.00am blog entry but I had some friends drop in unexpectedly and stay for the last 4 hours). The European session has blown through the Resistance line at 1.4180 discussed above and has been as high as 1.4247. The market has moved to an UPWARD bias. We may have an opportunity to buy, if and when the market comes back to the broken Resistance line at 1.4180 for confirmation. The next Resistance level is the old 1.4338 from June 2.

Edit 8.02am NY time The market has moved up in London. I am taking an aggressive countertrend trade at 1.4225 or higher. It have taken the trade because the market has not broken the 1.4250 mark and I believe it will now fall, possibly to 1.4180 initially and then maybe as low as 1.4100. Note that there is no real news event today.

Edit 8.06 am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4228 I have a tight SL at 1.4250. This was a quick decision trade (I really don't like trading against the trend, but this was a trade I was prepared to take on the countertrend)

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4220 I am continuing to let this trade play itself out. I am still short from 1.4228 in a countertrend trade with a very tight SL at 1.4250

Emails

Email 1
I am very surprised to receive SMS from you saying that you are taking the countertrend trading. This trade was not a recommendation....It is just a trade I was prepared to take. And I show my trades
Well, I do respect whatever you do, but I would like to know why you quickly decided to take the countertrend trade all of sudden. It had not broken 1.4250 and I could see no good reason for the rise in Asian and London trading
Any reason to take it in technically No break of 1.4250
and fundamentally? No reason for the rise in Asian and London trading


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 407

It is 1.15am NY time Friday July 17 and the market is at 1.4117

This market is going nowhere....and getting there is no fun. I will be closing my trade later today, because I don't like to be exposed to a position over a weekend when anything can happen. (It is also a time for you to spend some quality time with your partner/family over the weekend without worrying about what the market is doing...as you probably do every day that the market is open...LOL)
I will be looking for a good opportunity to close out my positions later today hopefully at a better price than the current price of 1.4117. I have no target in mind at the moment simply because the market is so listless and directionless so it is just a matter of watching it and trying to get a better price...hopefully sub 1.4100 and closer to the 1.4050 area reached yesterday.
I will SMS as we are getting near to a close out price and then again when I actually close out.

Edit 3.30am NY time Market at 1.4090 The market has dropped marginally to 1.4090. It is nothing to get excited about, but it is at least heading in the right direction. I will be watching for the action around the opening of NY session. Hopefully London will take this down and NY might continue the push down

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4090 The market has not gone anywhere in the last 4.5 hours. As stated above, I will be closing my trade hopefully under 1.4100 and closer to the 1.4050 area reached yesterday. I will be sending the initial SMS out soon and I will SMS as I actually close the trade

Edit 9.10am NY time Market at 1.4105 Market was moving up quickly after the Housing Starts numbers were digested by the market and plateau'd at just above 1.4100. I wasn't prepared to risk all the pips by letting the market potentially move back to the BE point so I closed at 1.4105. Although it was a profitable trade, it was a disappointing result. A profit of only 25 pips

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 406

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday July 16 and the market is at 1.4073

As expected, the FOMC minutes was the peak of the rise, and the market has fallen since the news was released. My SELL at 1.4130 from yesterday is looking good. I will feel much better if it now heads further down. I am now letting the trade play itself out. If/and when the market gets to 1.4000, I will be moving my Stop Loss to Break Even.

Edit 3.50am NY time Have been caught in a major Hong Kong traffic snarl and have just arrived home to find the market back at 1.4090 after hitting a low of 1.4055. I am continuing to let the trade play itself out with the 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss at 1.4230

Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4127 The market has moved up to my entry price. I was considering closing the trade, but then decided that I was still comfortable with my reasons for entering the trade yesterday. I have therefore decided to maintain my trade position. The major news event today is the TIC report at 9.00am which is the net foreign purchases of US long term securities.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4118 The market has retraced back down below the open but only marginally. I am still content to let this trade play itself out.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 405

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 15 and the market is at 1.3982

The Asian session continued the moribound state of the market that has been in play all week. The Asian session had a total range of only 25 pips over 8 hours. However, the market is showing signs of moving closer to my target later today.

One of the most significant piece of news that has not received a lot of coverage is the fact that China's Forex reserves rose to more than $2 Trillion and that their reserves rose by a monthly record of $158 billion in Q2, and that the last 12 months saw the level of these assets rise 17.8%.
If there was any doubt that China now has the power to totally control the worlds financial markets and the direction of the US dollar, those figures quickly dispel the doubts.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4055 The market has, as expected, continued to move up towards the Resistance line, driven by the expectations surrounding the FOMC minutes which will be a focal point for today's news. Those of you who went long for the ride up have had a rocky road but you are still in and you are in profit.

Edit 8.05am NY time Market at 1.4080 The market is continuing to grind up towards my target area of 1.4100-1.4150. I expect the target to be hit later today. I will be looking to minimize my risk and will sell as it turns back down. This is a very slow moving market this week so there is no urgency to get into a position. There should be ample time and opportunities to get set.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4110 The market has continued to move up into the lower area of my target area. I want to be sure that this market is not going to break through the Resistance line at 1.4140 on release of FOMC minutes. I am waiting to see signs of a peak (preferably a spike) and reversal.

Edit 1.15pm NY time Market at 1.4102 Market has lost some of its strength. I am waiting to see the response to the FOMC minutes, but I am preparing to trigger the trade. Initial notice SMS was sent 15 minutes ago.

Edit 2.08 NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4130. I have a 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss