MESSAGE FROM JACKO 437

It is 1.00am NY time Friday August 28 and the market is at 1.4360

After my previous trade was closed on the 50% Fib line, I stated that I was waiting for the bounce back up to the Resistance Line at 1.4350 so that I could SELL it again.
The market rose as high as 1.4405 and then started falling back.
I sold at 1.4365 which was 15 pips better than my original target.
I am now letting the trade play itself out, but I am desperately trying to get more than 46 pips so as to get the Fund to over 2000 pips.

On that note , today is the 1 year anniversary of the Fund's very first trade. You may recall that the Fund was officially launched on August 8 2008. By sheer good luck (LOL), that was the exact same day that the Great Financial Crisis and the explosion in volatility started. How lucky am I ??!! But the first trade was on August 28, 2008

In a time of the absolute worst possible trading conditions for Trend Trading, we have earned 1,954 pips and a return of 40% using a super conservative risk of just 2% capital risk on any one trade. (If we had used 5%, we would have doubled our money…). I am hoping that todays trade will get me over the 2000 pip line which will give us even better numbers.

More importantly, we have been through the worst of it…In the last two months we only had ONE losing trade…. and our A-H trade got it all back plus more

The performance of the Jackson Fortress Fund blog can be seen here:http://www.jacksonfortressmembers.blogspot.com/

User ID......... jacksonfortressaccess
Password.......jacksonfortress

Since the Fund's trades are the same as MY trades and are the same trades that I send out to each of you, this is also summary of the exact trades that I have sent out to members over the last 12 months

NOTE: The percentage returns of the Fund and my own personal accounts are to be treated as Private and Confidential. I do not want my personal income details and the Funds returns posted on FF (or any Forum) where they can be trashed by ignorant trolls. That stuff is then kept in the public domain forever, even if what they say is absolute rubbish,and will have an impact on the future growth of the Fund. I expect each member to be responsible regarding this information and sensitive to the immaturity of some forum participants.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4334 I am content to let my short from 1.4365 play itself out. It had a big run up yesterday afternoon NY time on the back of a very successful (well bought) $28 Billion auction of 7 year T-Bills. (look out, China is back in buying up USD assets again). Because today is Friday, I will be closing my position today. My initial target is that the market is heading to the previous low of the low 1.4200's but I want to be out so I will be targetting 1.4250 as a nice exit today. I will SMS my target as we get closer, as I might try to squeeze some extra pips out of this move

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4370. The European session has taken the market up from its lows of 1.4324. I am continuing to let the trade play itself out.
Now might be a good time for me to repeat my warning that that I say every couple of months:
I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading and WHY.
I don't ask people to follow only my trades. My trades are simply MY trades,... some of the group trade my trades PLUS their own
My positions are to find a good medium term target, place the order, place a Stop Loss and then let the trade play itself out. IF you are uncomfortable with anything in ANY of my trades, feel free to use your own discetion

Edit 12.10pm NY time. Market is at 1.4353 I suspect that this market is going to be sent down in the thin US afternoon session and early next week. I am therefore going to do something very unusual...I am going to keep my positions open over the weekend and look at the market again next week.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 436

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday August 27 and the market is at 1.4250

Our short trade yesterday from 1.4340 to 1.4210 resulted in a another pleasant profit of 130 pips.
I am again looking to go short, but am prepared to wait until it goes back up to our Resistance line (see Mondays blog) which is now sitting at around 1.4325-1.4350.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4250. The market is in no-mans between the Resistance line and the Support lines outlined on Monday. It has hit the 50% Fib line so the probability is that it will bounce upwards from there. I am waiting for it to return near the Resistance line and will look to SELL it down again

Edit 8.00am NY time market is at 1.4280 The market is still in no-mans land on the 4H charts, sitting between the Support and Resistance lines (as outlined on Monday). . As expected it has bounced off the 50% fib Line of 1.4210 yesterday and has moved back up. I will be waiting patiently at the 1.4350 mark to slap it on the head again

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.4266 The market is just gyrating around the 1.4250 mark. Not much happening. I will wait for my 1.4350

Emails (Three good emails)


Email 1
It's amazing how it exactly touched the resistance line and then went back down...No...thats the point...it is NOT amazing...it does it all the time...Or at least with a very high probability...but sometimes it stops just short or just long so you have to be prepared to buy or sell it "near" the Resistance line
Which goes back to my question, how to know when to enter... seems to be a sort of bet each time: Of course it is...EVERY investment is
- if I don't wait for the market to go back to the resistance line I risk selling at too cheap a price. Yes
- if I wait for the market to touch the resistance line I risk never entering the market...Yes
Besides, it may also touch and break out... how do I then know that it's a false break out? I guess I don't...Thats what SLs are for
I'd still be interested to know how you watch that bloody market to be reasonably certain you are entering and AA+ trade...You are never certain. But I am a strong believer that the market is going down soon, so my AA+ trades are trades in the short direction...the trades where we are going long are the ones that concern me

Email 2
Can you give one of your more backward pupils a real cat-sat-on-the-mat explanation as to why we're selling south based upon the 300 period 4HTF please.. I think that the market is moving sideways in a range between 1.3850 and 1.4350 since early June and is currently at the high end of that range. Now IF it is moving sideways, it means that the bull run up to early June has run out of steam,so it is heading for the basement. For those two reasons the northern train looks a bad probability to me

Email 3
I am really enjoying trading with you, it is working out well, I am making money and will shortly be increasing my lots. Excellent
A very important question from a nervous trader like me! How do you hold your nerve until the market hits your target? To fine tune your trading, watch the times that the market "turns" especially just before London opens and just before US opens and just before US lunch....It helps in a situation like yesterday and reduces the panic
On this last trade the big drop on the 1hr chart bottomed out at 1.4215 (very close to the 50% at 1.4210), it then retraced back to 1.4243 a scary 28 pips in the wrong direction. How do you avoid the temptation to close out while the going is good, instead of hanging in for the big prize? I thought that it would come back down to my 1.4210 because it was still early in the morning US time and it usually reverses just before lunch

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 435

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday August 26 and the market is at 1.4295

My Short trade at 1.4340 is progressing nicely. I am letting the trade play itself out. The first target is the 1.4200 area which is the 50% Fib line.

NOTE: I have received emails from almost every one of you about the 50% Fib numbers in Mondays blog. There is an obvious typo caused by the flu, too much brandy and too little loving from Mrs Jackson (who did NOT want to catch the flu...LOL). It should have read as:
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.4048 (August 17) to 1.4375 (August 21) and is at 1.4200

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4310. The market is moving up marginally ...probably on the approaching news of the German IFO numbers coming out at 4.00am NY time. My trade is still playing itself out

Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4270. I am continuing to let my short trade at 1.4340 play itself out. I will probably look to take a profit at the 50% Fib area of around 1.4200 (or just above it at 1.4210).

It is 9.35am NY time. The market is dropping nicely. I WILL be closing my Short trade from 1.4340 at 1.4210. We can get back in again later with another short when the market bounces back up.

Edit 11.27am NY time I have just closed all my Shorts from 1.4340 at 1.4210 for a 130 pip profit.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 434

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday August 25 and the market is at 1.4302

My original intention to take a SELL trade at 1.4335 (a pre-emptive A-H trade) would have been a good trade. However, in an attempt to make it into an AA+ trade, I was holding off for a price closer to the 1.4380 Resistance line. On the basis that the market has dropped down to as low as 1.4273, then perhaps I should have been more adventurous. I am looking again for a position to SELL this market down

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4260 I am annoyed that I am missing this market fall. I am still hopeful that I can get back into this market on the SELL side. I may have to wait for later in the day. I am looking at getting back in on a retrace back up (hopefully above 1.4300).

Edit 8.ooam NY time Market is at 1.4329 I am a SELLER at 1.4335 or Higher. An SMS has just been sent. I will send another SMS as I make the trade.

It is 9.03am NY time The market is at 1.4340 I have just sold at 1.4340 I have a 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss. An SMS has just been sent

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4327. I sold a little early as it moved up towards the 4H Resistance line, but I wanted to ensure that I was in the trade. I am now letting the trade play itself out

Emails

Email 1
Can you please confirm or otherwise the following statements (using the 4Hr chart):
1. 75% (approx) of the time price will bounce off Support & Resistance lines Yes... what I mean here it will bounce off and countinue in its opposite direction. Yes
2. If price does NOT bounce off the Support & Resistance lines and goes through and closes past it by say 100 pips then we have a possible change of direction. Yes
3. The possible change of direction is normally confirmed by a confirmatory touch of the previous Resistance (now turned support line) and Support (now turned resistance line) lines. Yes
4. So all we really need to do is wait for relevant trading opportuities off these lines.Yes
5. By setting our Stop-Loss we know what the worst case is/could be - normally a maximum of 100 pips from entry. Yes
6. In terms of TP targets we never really know what this could be. But we have potential targets in terms of 50% Fibs and resistance/support lines ..... we could use these in assisting us when we want to set take-profit targets.Yes
7. As an alternative to setting a target in 6. above we could where the support/resistance lines and/or the 50% Fibs are FAR AWAY let profits run by using a 100 TSL for example. Yes

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 433

It is 1.00am NY time Monday August 24 and the market is at 1.4332

The market has not reached 1.4385 which is the point which would activate my short Anti-Hedge trade at 1.4335 which is where I was Stopped Out in my last trade.
However the market is back at the price where I was stopped out so I have to make a decision as to whether to get back in at the price I was Stopped out at (on the expectation that it will go down) or do I wait for the 1.4385 to be hit (on the expectation that the market may still bounce up higher. I will wait for more guidance from London.

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4446 (Aug 5) , and 1.4375 (Aug 21) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4380.
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.3832 (July 8) and and 1.4048 (Aug 17) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4100.
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.3832 (July 8) to 1.4048 (August 17) and is at 1.4200

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4290 Late Asian trading and pre-London trade is showing weakness. I have decided to get back into the action of the last trade. As shown below, I was Stopped Out by that trade at 1.4335. I would be prepared to SELL at around that point and get back into the trade.

Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4328 I am still making up my mind as to whether I still want to sell at this price level or see if it goes up a little further closer to the Resistance line. I will send an SMS if I decide to SELL.

Edit 12.20pm NY time Market is at 1.4322 The market doesn't have any great momentum and is sticking around the 1.4325 area. I am still watching to see if it goes up a little further closer to the Resistance line. I will send an SMS if I decide to SELL.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 432

It is 1.00am NY time Friday August 21 and the market is at 1.4215

The market has done very little in the last 24 hours. The price is the same as this time yesterday but the bias has moved to the downside. I am still letting my SOLD at 1.4235 trade play itself out.

The last couple of Fridays have seen some big moves after very subdued Mon through Thursdays. I am hoping to see a repeat of that today on the downside. As discussed yesterday, If it breaks down, it will head towards the Support line from 1.3832 (on July 8) and 1.4045 (on Aug 17) which is now at about 1.4075. The first target would be the 50% Fib from 1.4045 (Aug 17) to 1.4266 (Aug 19) which is at 1.4150.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4240 The market has moved up marginally. I am still content to just let this trade play itself out a little longer.

Edit 8.00am NY time. Market is at 1.4335 The market has jumped up quickly on much better than expected French and German Manufacturing PMI numbers and has hit my Stop Losses.
This is the first loss in some time so I will now wait to activate an Anti Hedge trade to re-coup my loss. I will now let the market go a minimum of 50 pips past my SL to 1.4385 and will then place an order to SELL at my original SL at 1.4335. That will ensure that when the market has risen and peaked and then begins to fall back, it picks up my trade at where I was Stopped out and continues moving back down thereby re-couping my loss. (However, I will not be placing the order today because it is a Friday....I will hold the order over until Monday).

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4322. The market has reached a high of only 1.4376 so A-H has not been triggered yet.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 431

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday August 20 and the market is at 1.4220

Well, my impetuous and impulsive "BUY the retracement" trade at 1.4135 was closed yesterday at 1.4250 for a 115 pip profit.
And, as I said on Tuesday, "I personally will be waiting for it to retrace to the 1.4250-1.4300 area so that I can sell it, because the 4H trend is now downwards" I was a bit slow in reacting because of the flu but after closing the "buy the retracement" trade, I chopped and reversed and I sold at 1.4235 and am looking to ride the trend down to 1.4100-1.4150. I am now letting the trade play itself out

Edit 3.30am NY time Market at 1.4223. I am still letting my SOLD at 1.4235 trade play itself out

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4235. The market is repeatedly bouncing down off the Resistance line which is shown by linking all the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4447 (on Aug 5) and 1,4413 (on Aug 7) and 1.4266 on (Aug 19) and which is now at around 1.4250.
If it breaks down, it will head towards the Support line from 1.3832 (on July 8) and 1.4045 (on Aug 17) which is now at about 1.4075.
The first target would be the 50% Fib from 1.4045 (Aug 17) to 1.4266 (Aug 19) which is at 1.4150

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4230 I am letting my trade play itself out

Please hold off on sending me any emails for the next couple of days UNLESS they are extremely URGENT (such as if you are not getting the SMSes or you are having difficulty accessing the blog). I am trying to recover from the flu and Mrs Jackson does a screaming war-dance every time I try to answer an email. I should be fine after the weekend.