MESSAGE FROM JACKO 498

It is 3.00am NY time Monday November 30 and the market 1.5061

My trade from yesterday did not have the best of entry points. It was driven by my annoyance at missing the buy entry last Friday, my keen desire to trade, and my expectation that the market would stay within the trading range of the Support line (1.4825) and the upper area where it had been ranging at 1.5000 (therefore the Sell at 1.4995).
As outlined, it was a more risky trade. However, I decided to take the risk. I am now letting the trade play itself out.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.5028 My trade is still playing itself out.
As an entry point, my Sell at 1.4995 was a shocker.!!! It was terrible !!! Even Mrs Jackson says she could have done better than that.... LOL
The only justification is that, at the time, I thought 1.5000 was going to be a much stronger Resistance area than it was. However, the trade is still alive and playing itself out.

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Resistance line. At the present time there is no descending Resistance line of interest. In regards to horizontal Resistance lines, the Resistance is now at the previous high of 1.5144. At the present time, that Resistance is of little use to us as the 100 pip fixed Stop Loss at 1.5095 has more relevance in the current trade. (If the market goes up, the Stop Loss will close the trade)
The Support line is found by linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3) and 1.2886 (April21) and and the new low of 1.4628 (Nov 26) we can see that the rising Support line is today at 1.4835 (and rounded to1.4850).
The 50% Fib line between 1.4626 (Nov 2) and the new high of 1.5144(Nov 24) is now at 1.4885. This 50% Fib has already been broken when the market fell to 1.4828, so we can now look further back to the previous low of 1.4480 (Oct 1) and the latest high of 1.5144 (Nov 24) to calculate the next 50% Fib target ...which is 1.4812

In light of the above, my initial target price for the current trade is the Support line at 1.4850.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4986 My trade has finally moved into profit. I am letting the trade play itself out.

Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.5032.. I am continuing to let this trade play itself out


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 497 (Special Sunday post)

It is 5.30pm NY time Sunday November 29 and the market 1.5011

It is very early (6.30m HK time). The market is very thin as only Sydney is trading. Tokyo starts in 30 minutes and Hong Kong an hour later. The USD has dropped back on news that the United Arab Emirates' central bank eased liquidity for lenders and said it "stands behind" the country's local and foreign banks as they face losses from Dubai World's possible default.

I will be back in an hour after I have looked into all the news about this Dubai issue. But I am keen to trade this down to the Support line.

Edit 7.00pm NY time The market is at 1.5000 I am a Seller at 1.5000 or higher with a 100 pip fixed SL... Aaah , Hong Kong has just dropped it down.

Edit 7.45pm NY time. I have just sold at 1.4995. I decided that 1.5000 might act as a barrier. And 1.4995 was close enough



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 497

It is 3.00am NY time Friday November 27 and the market 1.4860

After rising to as high as 1.5144 the market has fallen quickly and sharply due to the very thin markets and the "flight to safety of the USD" on news that Dubai World, the largest Corporate entity in Dubai, has asked for a "standstill" on its debts until May 30 at the earliest.. (Standard & Poor's estimated Dubai World could be responsible for as much as 50% of Dubai's total government- and corporate-debt load of some $80 billion to $90 billion).

The fact that the Dubai Government hasn't completely guaranteed Dubai World is a worry.
The fact that the UAE (of which Dubai is a member state) hasn't guaranteed the debts is a bigger worry
It looks as though the Great Financial Crisis is starting to show cracks in other places again.....

On the other side, the market is quickly moving down to my rising Support line at 1.4800 (and is today at 1.4825). However, most US bankers and dealers will again be away today for an extended Thanksgiving break, so the market will be very thin with very limited liquidity. This Dubai issue will continue over the weekend. So be wary of having any open positions over the weekend. I will be opening a trade on Sunday evening NY time after the Dubai issue is clearer.


Edit 3.01am NY time Market has actually just bounced off the Support line at 1.4827 and is moving back up...But this will go lower... This Dubai issue is a serious issue that is concerning the Arab states and they will flee to the USD

Edit 8.00am NY time Ouch. Earlier today the market moved down so quickly to hit the Support line and then bounced up so quickly that I was caught unawares. I was actually writing the blog entry leading up to 3.00am as the market was dropping like a rock and was not watching the screen. (When I started drafting the blog the market was at 1.4920) It hit 1.4827 and bounced back up to 1.4860 while I was drafting the blog and had the computer on the blog page. That will teach me to be down at the coffee shop below the office and only have the one laptop with me.Ouch.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4968 I am still annoyed that the market dropped so quickly to my Support line and bounced while I was drafting the blog and I missed it. I am annoyed with myself that I didn't already have the order in place to buy at my Support line. Lesson learned... Start re-using pending orders.


Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is closed. The market is back sitting in the range area between 1.4800 and 1.5000 that it has been in since Oct 12. I am really annoyed that the market made its major move in the 30 minutes before London opened and I was caught with my pants down by drafting the blog without checking the charts.
The implications of the Dubai World "standstill" on their debt has yet to be fully recognised by the larger Banking traders who were all on Thanksgiving Holiday. If Dubai defaults, which I think it will, it will be the largest sovereign default since Argentina in 2002. That gives us a very good opportunity. It will cause a further flow back to USD.
I will be placing a trade on Sunday. I would prefer to wait until the market drops back to the Support line to buy BUT I am keen to make up for the missed opportunity yesterday.

I see an opportunity to sell this market at 1.5000 (or higher) and ride it down. It is a more risky trade so feel free not to take it if you wish to be more safe. I will send SMSes on Sunday evening after the market has opened and again as I execute the trade




MESSAGE FROM JACKO 496

It is 3.00am NY time Thursday November 26 and the market 1.5091

The US market will be closed today for Thanksgiving Day, so there will be low liquidity and possible high volatility. Even though I am frustrated with the market and very keen to trade, I won't be trading today.

To each of you and your families, Mrs Jackson and I wish you all:

Happy Thanksgiving Day

In this industry we have many reasons to give Thanks for everything that has been given to us.

Firstly, I give Thanks for finding this extraordinary forex trading business where there is incredible flexibility in establishing, running and financing the business.
Given the huge leverage in this business, anyone can enter the industry and establish a trade... and commence their their subsequent business.
Also, while running the business, if I see an opportunity I can be involved within 30 seconds. More importantly, if I am in a trade and I feel that I have made a mmmmmistake I can be out of that transaction within 30 seconds. (try doing that with any other business!!)
Also, the leverage and compounding allows extraordinary growth and profits. In just two short years I managed to escalate from 2 standard contracts (with one broker) to 200 standard contracts (over 4 brokers) in a normal transaction,... and with the Fund I am now trading even bigger numbers.

Secondly, I give Thanks for a market that trends so regularly that opportunities are around every corner. Even though I have missed an opportunity or two in the last two or three years, I can remain confident because I know that there are plenty more opportunities to come.

Thirdly, I give Thanks for the fact that I can conduct my business from anywhere in the world with just my laptop and an international cell phone.

Fourthly, I give Thanks for being able to "think out" the Anti-Hedge strategy which turned my initial losers into winners and escalated my win rate

Fifthly, I give Thanks for having some excellent resources (in the form of books about earlier successful traders) which have been a beacon in those times when I have been sitting on the sidelines, wanting to rush in. Those resources have all emphasized the waiting as a precondition for becoming a winner.

Sixthly, I give Thanks to each of you for being part of this new tribe of traders that have decided to join with me in this lifelong business of trading. Also, some of you have also been more aggressive in your trading than me and I have been happy to read that many of you have made excellent profits, We have all embarked on a journey that, God willing, will allow us to have a simple yet profitable business for the rest of our lives. (For any of you who think that retirement is good, let me tell you something .... playing golf every day is boring ...and the people who do play golf every day are even more boring!!!!) I am old...and getting older...but I still get an adrenalin buzz from a successful trade

Seventhly, I give thanks for Forex Factory, without which I would never have met any of you. In my communications with each of you to date, you have ALL shown that you want to be serious and committed traders, and are willing to learn. Some of you will always be more aggressive in your willingness to take positions and some of you will be more safety-conscious. There is no right or wrong way, as long as your profits are maximized AND any losses are minimized. I think that a number of you are potentially better traders than me. If I can just help show you how I trade, I hope that many of you will use my experience and style and modify it to suit your own personalities. You can then go on to have as rewarding a time as I have had in this business. I, personally, am enjoying the group dynamics and hope that the group goes on for years as we all get to know each other and start to share our trading experiences in the near future.

Happy Thankgiving Day