It is 3.00am NY time Friday December 4 and the market is at 1.5085
The market has continued to move aimlessly around with no real direction. It has spent most of this week moving within plus or minus 50 pips from the infamous 1.5095 mark (where I was stopped out on he last trade). I have been looking for a sense of direction from the market but at the moment there is none.
Today, we have the major news events of the US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) and US Unemployment Rate at 8.30am NY time. The NFP is one of the biggest market movers on the calendar. The FOMC announcement is the other major market mover.
Unless you have a very large cushion of profit, it is always recommended that you stay out of the market during NFP because of the big swings, and the huge increases in spreads, which combine to just rip up all the Stop losses. It is when the brokers make some serious money at the expense of traders.
Will be back at 8.45am NY time after the NFP announcement
Edit 8.45pm NY time Market is at 1.4990 The NFP has come in at -11K vs the expected -120K and has caused the USD to strengthen. The market has dropped to 1.4990. This will change market sentiment in the short term and cause the market to fall further next week.
The adventurous traders. I would NOT be closing the shorts from 1.5070 or higher at these levels... this will go lower
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4889 Market has dropped to the Support line. As I don't want to be holding a position over the weekend, I will be a taking a position very early next week.
Emails
Email 1
Given the daily bar increment against the support line, is 1,4850 now not too low for a long entry as this falls below the support line? Yes, the rising Support line increases in value each day... The market has moved up past 1.4850
So what would the new entry level be or how would you calculate it?
OK.. How to draw a Support Line and determine todays Support line price
The simplest way is to go to the free charts at DailyFX.com or Netdania.com (they are the same)
Pull up the EUR/USD chart
1. To get 300 Days of data:
Click on Time Scale.....Set it to Daily
Click on View
Click on Periods.......Set it to 300 bars
You now have 300 days worth of Daily bars
2. To draw the lines:
Click on Lines
Click on Add lines
Click on Freehand
Click on the low point of 1.2460 on march 3 and draw the line touching all the low points ending with 1.4828 on Nov 26
3. To get a magnified chart:
Now click on Zoom
Click on Zoom IN
Highlight the last (approx) 50 bars and you will see a magnified copy of the last (approx) 50 days with the 300 bar Daily Support line clearly seen
4. To get the Support line price
Drop a line down from todays price bar down to the Support line and read the value off the right hand price axis....
You will have the rising Support line price for today.
The Resistance line is drawn in similar manner
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 501
It is 3.00am NY time Thursday December 3 and the market is at 1.5115
The market has now gyrated 60 pips below the 1.5095 level and now is 30 pips above it, so there is not a lot of movement in the range around that level since Tuesday morning NY time.
I am still on the sidelines, looking for an opportunity to get a reasonable risk trade.
My preference is to wait until it gets back to the Support line but IF I see an opportunity before that, then I will be interested in trading it.
At the moment the market is trading at 1.5115 which it has traded at on today, yesterday and the day before that. It has been at this 1.5115 mark each day for three consecutive days. This market is not showing a great deal of strong direction in the last three days.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.5125. The market has moved very little so far today. The earlier ECB announcement that interest rates would remain at 1.00% had almost no impact on the market. The other news events today are the US Unemployment Claim numbers at 8.30am and the US ISM Non -Manufacturing PMI numbers at 10.00am. I am still looking for a trade opportunity.
Edit 12.30pm NY time Market is at 1.5078 After rapid spikes down and up at 8.36am caused by a speech by Mr Geithner, and also another by the ECB's Mr Trichet, the market has been slowly moving down this morning. I am on the sidelines at the moment.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.5062 This market is aimlessly looking for a direction at the present time. I too am looking to see which way it will head. A frustrating market at the present time.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 500
(Can you believe that !!!!! ...500 days of Blog entries )
It is 3.00am NY time Wednesday December 2 and the market is at 1.5086
The safest trade is to wait out the market until it moves back to the Support line at 1.4850 and buy on the pullback.
But I am a trader and I am feeling adventurous and I believe the probabilities in the next 24 hours are shifting to the sell side. The market has stayed in the region of where I was stopped out (1.5095). I am seriously tempted to get back into this market. I am waiting to make sure that it is not a revenge trade. It believe that this market may correct back to the 1.4850 Support line again very soon.
(NOTE : Please read emails below)
For the adventurous traders: I still believe that a Sell at the level of 1.5070 or higher is a better probability trade than a buy at those levels
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.5084 I have decided to stay on the sidelines for a while longer while I watch the market. It is still trading in the area of where I was stopped out on my last trade (1.5095). The US ADP Non Farm Employment Change news is released at 8.15am today and it is always a market mover.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.5053 The market has dropped marginally on rumours that a large US bank has more undisclosed losses. But otherwise a tame morning of trading
Edit 7.00pmNY time Market is at 1.5076 The market has moved down as low as 1.5031, and has now just bounced back up to 1.5076. This is too high a level for me to be a buyer, so I have two options: firstly, to stay on the sidelines until the market gets back to the Support line OR secondly, to take the "riskier" trade of selling down to the Support line.
I am currently waiting on the sidelines BUT IF I see an interesting possibility to sell down, I may take it...because I am a trader.
Emails
Email 1
You have had two losses in a row. Yes, thanks for telling me that.
As I have said before, I am not a signal service. ...My trades and trade notifications are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see when and what I am trading and why.
But keep in mind, I have NEVER had a negative Quarter. I have never even come close to having a negative Quarter. And I fully expect this Quarter to be another positive Quarter.
What were your reasons for taking a trade that was not in the Up direction of the Trend? In this last trade, I was very specific when I said: "It is a more risky trade so feel free not to take it" The reasons I took that more risky trade was
(i) driven by my annoyance at missing the buy entry last Friday,
(ii) my keen desire to trade, and
(iii) most importantly, my expectation that the market would stay within the trading range of the Support line (1.4825) and the upper area where it had been ranging at 1.5000.
Email 2
Why didn't you wait until it had dropped back to the Support line again ? I had been on the sidelines for an extended period as I waited for the market only to see it rapidly drop and bounce back up 30 minutes before London opened as I was working on the blog. (To say I was annoyed at missing that trade is an understatement !!!!!)
I therefore had two options: firstly to wait until it again dropped to the Support line again OR secondly, trade the range of 1.4825 to 1.5000. I decided to trade the range based on the expectation that the 1.5000 area of resistance would be strong enough to hold. (That was where I was wrong!!)
You have to remember that I am first and foremost a TRADER! I will sometimes take a trade that is beyond the parameters of Trend Trading if I think that the situation justifies it.
But I will always forewarn each of you by stating that it is a more risky trade, and give the reasons why I am trading it.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 499
It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday December 1 and the market is at 1.5024
My current Short trade from 1.4995 is still in play. It has a fixed 100 pips Stop Loss set at 1.5095 and my initial target price is at the rising Support line at 1.4850. I am letting the trade play itself out
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.5064 The market has been sitting in a 100 pip range (from 1.4980 -1.5080) all week. The major news events for the day are the US ISM Manuufacturing PMI and the US Pending Home Sales at 10.00am today. I am continuing to let my trade play itself out.
For adventurous traders: If you are not already in a trade, I would be a Seller at these high 1.5070 levels
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.5106 My trade was stopped out at 1.5095 earler today as the market continued it move up. I will now wait for the correction back to the Support line for the next trade entry.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.5090. In reviewing the last trade, a number of issues stand out. One is that I was looking to trade the range rather than the trend and secondly I used 1.5000 as the considered high of the range. Both assumptions were incorrect. But as always, the damage was limited to a maximum of 2% of capital, so the damage is easily repaired. I am looking to recoup those losses in the next trade.
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