MESSAGE FROM JACKO 593
It is 3.00am NY time Friday April 30 and the market is at 1.3285
After a very dull and lackluster session in the US session, it was followed by a very dull and lackluster session in the Asian session. I am hoping that the London session can give this market a kick in the ass ..... especially to the downside. My trade is still playing itself out. Pre-London trade has just taken us very close to my Stops.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3319 My trade was stopped out at 1.3300 at 3.11am NY time. I am now waiting for market to hit 1.3350 (50 pips past the Stop Loss) , which will trigger an A-H order to SELL at 1.3300
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3302 The market reached a high of 1.3342 which is too low to trigger the A-H order, but has fallen back to the point where I was stopped out. (If this was not a Friday afternoon, I would be very tempted to take an aggressive A-H trade using the 1.3342 high as the trigger).
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 592
It is 3.00am NY time Thursday April 29 and the market is at 1.3216
My SELL at 1.3200 is still playing itself out. The market has moved back up to the 1.3200 price. We may see some price ranging between 1.3250 down to the Round number Resistance of 1.3000. I am looking to close this trade at 1.3020. And then get back in again on any bounce off the 1.3000 level.
You may want to look at the major MONTHLY Support line from 0.8363 (June 2001) and 0.8630 (February 2002) and 1.2460 (February 2009) which is currently at 1.3000 on the monthly. This should be a very strong Resistance line and I would think that we will be sitting on that Resistance line on May 9, 2010. The critical time period to watch for any major change in the Greek issue will be after the May 9 German (North Rhine-Westphalia) elections. If Mrs Merkel is going to "stiff" the German people and give a loan to Greece, it will be the day AFTER that election. The decision that Mrs Merkel makes on behalf of Germany will decide whether the Euro is sent crashing through that Resistance line or whether it bounces up off it for a short period of time. It is inevitable that the 1.3000 will be broken at some time, but Mrs Merkel might keep the Euro afloat for a couple of weeks if she offers a loan.
I personally believe that it has now gone too far. No loan will get Greece out of its problem... Greece will default on its loans, it will then renegotiate with the debt holders (mostly European banks ) and offer 50 cent in the dollar and extend the payment period. Then the banks will start falling over again.....
I am a definite SELLER for the foreseeable future
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3260 The market has risen after the IMF stated that it would increase its aid package to 120 Billion Euros over the next three years. Also Mrs Merkel stated earlier that Germany would assist Greece "as soon as conditions are right" (You can read that as saying... "after the May 9 election"). My trade is still playing itself out.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 13255. My trade is still playing itself out
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3251 A very dull and lackluster session in the US session. I am hoping that the Asian session can give this market a kick in the ass ..... especially to the downside. My trade is still playing itself out
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 591
It is 3.00am NY time Wednesday April 28 and the market is at 1.3186
Yesterday's 8.00pm Edit is important so I am going to repeat the blog Entry :
Yesterday was a day of missed opportunities. Firstly,my trigger price of 1.3422 for the Anti-Hedge trade was missed by just 6 pips (when it topped at 1.3416). Secondly, my trigger price for the SELL at 1.3350 or higher was missed by just 9 pips (when the move back up to the Resistance area topped at 1.3341). And, thirdly, when the news of the S&P downgrading of the Greek credit rating hit our screens there was insufficient time to get the Blog and SMSes out. (It dropped 52 pips in less than two minutes).
The only redeeming factor is that I know that the market will retrace a sizeable part of today's move in the next 24-48 hours and allow us another opportunity to get back into the down-move. (Last week it hit a low of 1.3201 before bouncing back up 216 pips to 1.4216... Another such move is expected).
The market is not being driven by the Technicals at the present time. (I would even say that the Technical levels are largely irrelevant while this Greek issue is in play). It is being driven by the Fundamental news releases being released at varying times by various parties. However, the underlying issue is that the Greek problem will not go away just because the politicians desperately want it to go away... It will get worse... And the Euro will continue to fall to 1.1000 by the end of this year.
Also, it is not just the Euro that is falling. ALL the USD based pairs are now falling against the USD indicating that the fall is being driven by the strength of the USD. This is showing a "flight to safety" to the USD from ALL currency pairs. The markets are getting more worried about the fallout from this Greek crisis.
It is interesting to note that the Greek issue is still unknown to the vast majority of people. Citizens of Hong Kong are one of the most "financially aware" groups of people I have ever met. They can usually tell you exchange rates of HKD to the USD, EUR, GBP and AUD and be very accurate. Yet I was speaking to some HK businessmen yesterday and their knowledge of the European situation was very sketchy. I spoke to some friends in the US last night and they were almost totally unaware of what is happening in Europe. I then had a quick look through FF and was amazed at how little in-depth discussion of the situation and its implications there was.
I am looking for a retracement back up towards 1.3300 (or just under it) for an entry.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3200 The market has been retracing upwards because Mrs Merkel will make an announcement at 2.45pm GMT (9.45am NY time) regarding the rescue package. So far today the German Cabinet has been meeting to discuss their 8.4Billion Euro commitment, and also the ECB and IMF leaders are currently addressing the German leadership in Berlin. But Mrs Merkel knows that if she agrees to it, she will get hurt badly in the upcoming May 9 German (North Rhine-Westphalia) elections.
Meanwhile, Greek bonds have gone from paying 13% yesterday to 21% today. It is clearly unsustainable and the Greek market is in serious danger of collapse. (Greece needs to repay 130 Billion Euros by the end of 2012... Not a chance !!!!!!) When Greece does collapse and attempts to re-negotiate its loans, the contagion will bounce right around the other PIIGS. The underlying issue is that the Greek problem will not go away just because the politicians desperately want it to go away... It will get worse... And the Euro will continue to fall to 1.1000 by the end of this year.
I am a SELLER at just under 1.3300 but I may have other SELLS at lower levels after the announcement by Mrs Merkel at 9.45am NY time. It will be fast and furious today.Edit 9.58am NY time Market is at 1.3200 I have just SOLD at 1.3200 I have a 100 pip fixed Stop Loss
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3117 The market has moved down on news of downgrades of Spanish bonds, dropping 60 pips in less than 3 minutes. The contagion is spreading to the other PIIGS now. I am letting the trade play itself out.
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3196 The market has moved back up to our SELL price. We may see some price ranging between 1.3250 down to the Round number Resistance of 1.3000. I am looking to close this trade at 1.3020. And then get back in again on any bounce off the 1.3000 level.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 590
It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday April 27 and the market is at 1.3366
The market is showing weakness but I am waiting for it to move to a less risky area where I can sell from. Patience is required at the present time. There has been repeated market congestion in the 1.3350 to 1.3400 area over the last 6-7 days. But we may be seeing a technical bounce towards the Resistance line at 1.3550, and also the minor 50% Fib line from 1.3692 (April 11) and 1.3201 (April 21) at 1.3450.
I am holding out for a move towards the Resistance line area (instead of the weaker 50% Fib line) for my SELL. I am also waiting for the market to hit 1.3422 (1.3372 + 50) so that I can set an Anti-Hedge trade in place.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3290 After a very dull start, the London market has surprised by dropping quickly in late morning trade. The fact that ALL the USD based pairs are dropping against the USD indicates that the fall is being driven by the strength of the USD. This is based probably by the news that the US government will commence selling its 7.7 billion Citigroup shares today. This confirms that the market is again turning bearish after bouncing up from its low of 1.3201 on April 22.
Because the market is confirmed, I am therefore a SELLER. The Resistance areas outlined in the 3.00am blog entry above may now be too optimistic. I am eager to get back into this down move. The nearest Resistance area is the bottom of the congestion area at 1.3350. I am looking to SELL at 1.3350 or higher
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3229 The market rose to only 1.3341 before dropping fast on news that S&P was cutting Greece's sovereign credit rating to Junk. I missed this drop....
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3175 Today was a day of missed opportunities. Firstly,my trigger price of 1.3422 for the Anti-Hedge trade was missed by just 6 pips (when it topped at 1.3416). Secondly, my trigger price for the SELL at 1.3350 or higher was missed by just 9 pips (when the move back up to the Resistance area topped at 1.3341). And, thirdly, when the news of the S&P downgrading of the Greek credit rating hit our screens there was insufficient time to get the Blog and SMSes out. (It dropped 52 pips in less than two minutes).
The only redeeming factor is that I know that the market will retrace a sizeable part of today's move in the next 24-48 hours and allow us another opportunity to get back into the down-move. (Last week it hit a low of 1.3201 before bouncing back up 216 pips to 1.4216... Another such move is expected).
The market is not being driven by the Technicals at the present time. (I would even say that the Technical levels are largely irrelevant while this Greek issue is in play). It is being driven by the Fundamental news releases being released at varying times by various parties. However, the underlying issue is that the Greek problem will not go away just because the politicians desperately want it to go away... It will get worse... And the Euro will continue to fall to 1.1000 by the end of this year.
Also, it is not just the Euro that is falling... ALL the USD based pairs are now falling against the USD indicating that the fall is being driven by the strength of the USD. This is showing a "flight to safety" to the USD from ALL currency pairs. The markets are getting more worried about the fallout from this Greek crisis.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 589
It is 3.00am NY time Monday April 26 and the market is at 1.3365
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Resistance line is found by linking up the highest points on the daily chart starting from 1.5140 (Dec 2) and 1.3692 (April 11) and 1.3679 (April 13) and 1.3666 (April 14) with the resistance line today at approx 1.3550. So I am looking to open a SELL trade if it gets to that area.
The Support line (which is the medium term price target) is found by linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3, 2009) and 1.3201 (April 21, 2010) currently at around 1.3225
Also my trades on Friday were closed out at a loss. I am therefore also waiting for the market to hit 1.3422 (1.3372 + 50) so that I can set an Anti-Hedge trade in place.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3332 The market is showing weakness but I am waiting for it to move to a less risky area where I can sell from. Patience is required at the present time.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3332 The market has moved very little in the last 4 hours and is right back to where it was 4 hours ago. It is still looking weak.
Edit 8.0pm NY time Market is at 1.3395 The market has moved up to the 1.3400 area. We may see a technical bounce towards the Resistance line at 1.3550 and also the minor 50% Fib line from 1.3692 (April 11) and 1.3201 (April 21) at 1.3450.
I am holding out for a move towards the Resistance line area (instead of the weaker 50% Fib line) for my SELL. I am also waiting for the market to hit 1.3422 (1.3372 + 50) so that I can set an Anti-Hedge trade in place.
Emails
Email 1
I would like to know what your thoughts were during these two moves:1) Your second sell at 1.3474 at 11:30pm on Monday the 19th. There were no new developments or news or even a resistance reached. I don't understand what made you so confidently place this extra trade. Simple...I was just compounding up on the previous trade as quick as I could because I strongly believed that the Greek crises would drive the EUR/USD lower...I was not waiting for any tech tool to give me a number to get in...I just wanted to get in as soon as I could
2) You suggested a close at 1.400 yesterday because it would bounce, and again you were right on. I did not see any major resistance lines.It was the Round number Was it just because it was a major round number 1.400? Yes If so, I don't remember you making such a call/suggestion during other trades where it hit a major number. When a market is in a strong quick move based on Fundamentals, such as the Greek news, the Round numbers become more important
Email 2
The reason I email is this thing happening at the moment with Goldman sachs fraud charges, that even if they beat the charges the people ripped off may start filing lawsuits which may cause a domimos effect with other firms. Do personnaly think this may cause some damage to the financial and stock markets It will affect the US stock market, but that is all or these on going problems in europe will over shadow it. The problems in Europe will overshadow EVERYTHING... It is a major serious problem... The Goldman Sachs issue is small fry ....They will pay a big fine, sack a couple of people that were getting ready for early retirement to look like they had a clean out, and then carry on as though nothing had happened
Email 3
Do you really think that is possible that Germany or one of the PIIGS countries will leave the EU? Yes, I think that the EU needs to make an example of one of the PIIGS to prove that it is serious about all the EU members playing by the rules If so, don´t you think that if that will happen, Euro going to 1.1000 by the end will be the least problem? That will lead to the brake down of the EU and will present the problem to the whole world, because of the economics problems that we are in right now? No, the eviction of one country from the European Union will not necessarily lead to a break up of the EU. But it will make sure that all the rest of the PIIGS get their finances sorted out real quick. The country that gets evicted from the EU will have a MASSIVE drop in living standards The expulsion of one country will be enough to stop the problem, because it will shock all the other PIIGS into immediate action
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 588
It is 3.00am NY time Friday April 22 and the market is at 1.3238
My decision to let the market recover from the sharp drop and wait for the bounce back up from the Support line to a more attractive selling area proved to be the wrong decision. The market bounce was much less than I was hoping for. PLUS, the market dropped through the 1.3300 support line. I am not going to chase the market. There will be plenty of opportunities available later.
I am now considering lowering my target to the 1.3300 area for a SELL at the broken Support (now Resistance) line. Given the ease that the Support line was broken, the Resistance may not be very strong. But I am also cautious of being caught holding a trade over this weekend. Another rescue mission will possibly be announced, probably by the International Monetary Fund, in an attempt to calm the markets. This would have the effect of a large gap upwards again over the weekend. BUT, the PIIGS problem will still be there and this market WILL go down again. So I may hold off and trade on Monday (Sunday evening in the US).
PS Last night I stuck my neck out and said that I thought that the 1.3201 price hit at 7.20 pm NY time today would be the low for the next couple of days..... before the price resumes going South. Those VERY adventurous traders who traded that trade have done well so far, but it is an extremely dangerous trade to be in. I would expect a Stop Loss at BE or 1.3201 to be firmly in place.
Edit 4.00am NY time Market is at 1.3269 There is a meeting in Washington later today by the G-20 which "may" discuss the Greek issue. This is making me a little nervous regarding opening a new trade at 1.3300 just at the moment.
Edit 7.20am NY time Market is at 1.3308 I am a SELLER at 1.3300 or higher. I have just SOLD at 1.3302 A 100 pip fixed SL. Market is now moving higher so you should all get a better entry than me.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3315 The market promptly moved 20 pips higher after I SOLD at 1.3302 and has stayed above my entry so you should all have got in at a much better entry than me. (Gnash, gnash of teeth....LOL). As can be seen from the earlier posts today, I am not wildly confident about taking this trade but I want to get back into the down move again. (I closed out my last trades at 1.3400 and I can't see it getting back to that level for a SELL entry very soon, so I have used 1.3300 area as my entry point) This trade is a continuation of the last 4 trades, capitalizing on the breakdown of the Euro being caused by Greece. Today Greece has formally asked for EU aid. However, lending Greece more money will NOT solve the problem. It simply gives Greece a bigger debt. And it only leads to each of the other PIIGS obtaining loans and increasing their debt. It doesn't solve the problem.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.366 After a good initial move, this trade is now looking a little uglier. I am not keen to be holding it over the weekend so I will be looking at closing it later today. I will be back with a review of the situation at 3.00pm NY time.
Edit 3.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3386 The market is very close to my Stop Loss and is staying up at that level. I don't want to keep my trades over the weekend as there may be a dangerous gap. I am slowly closing all my positions now. Oh, market is dropping.... I will get a better price
Edit 6.00pm NY time Market is closed. All positions closed at an average price of 1.3372.
Emails
Email 1
can you please tell me what was the final clue to you that you expected there would be so little euro-demand after 1.3400? The ongoing and deepening problems with Greece (and by implication, the rest of the PIIGS) ......I have basically been trading this week from the fundamentals...the euro is in serious difficulty and I can not see a resolution...Either Germany OR the some of the PIIGS will leave the European Union...There is no other solution. Either way, the Euro is in serious trouble
due to technical analysis I expected more support arround 1.3400. Nooooo ...this thing is going to go MUCH deeper...we will see 1.1000 by the end of this year without any shadow of a doubt... and thanks again for sharing all your experinece and $$$ with us.....Thanks
Email 2
I was wondering how you determine when to bump your stop loss up. I've noticed that when you do move it up you don't give the trade much room to move. In the last couple of trades, I have moved it down to a level that IF it is going to move against me, then it takes me out at about twenty pips. That way, if the market is moving strongly in my direction, the stop won't be hit as the momentum takes it away from the Stop Loss. But if I am wrong, and it is going to move against me, then it hits it without too much damage. Having said that, if I had used a bigger Stop Loss on the last account I would have got a lot more pips..So it is a balancing issue Is this mainly because you are pretty sure that the market is going to retrace back up or against your trade in the near term? Noo. ..If I pretty sure that it was going to retrace I would have closed it immediately
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 587
It is 3.00am NY time Thursday April 22 and the market is at 1.3410
My two SELL trades (1.3491 and 1.3474) were closed out at 1.3400 for 91 and 74 pips profit respectively. I am just going to watch the market for a while before I take another trade. I am still waiting for a bounce to get back in again at a higher price. I always prefer to ride the down trend by getting back in at a higher price than where I closed the previous trade. I was looking to get back in at 1.3400 or higher. The market has moved just above the 1.3400 area in the Asian session... But I think there is more upside to go.
The Resistance line is found by linking up the highest points on the daily chart starting from 1.5140 (Dec 2) and 1.3692 (April 11) and 1.3679 (April 13) and 1.3666 (April 14) with the resistance line today at approx 1.3600. I am dubious that it will get there, but it may try to move up towards it. If it does, I will be a willing SELLER at 1.3500 or higher. I am NOT placing any Counter Trend trades.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3347 The market dropped almost 100 pips very quickly three hours ago when Eurostat confirmed that the Greek budget deficit was 13.6%of GDP and Govt. debt was 115% of GDP. I was out of the office when the unexpected news was released and am now waiting for the market to recover and bounce back up to a more attractive selling area. Interestingly, as previewed yesterday, the Pound, Aussie and Canadian currency all dropped quickly at the same time as investors rushed to the safety of the USD.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3297. The market has moved down to the Support line (which was the medium term price target) found by linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3, 2009) and and 1.3267 (March 24, 2010) and 1.3281 (April 7, 2010) currently at around 1.3300. I am now waiting for the market to recover and bounce back up to a more attractive selling area.
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3223 My decision to let the market recover from the sharp drop and wait for the bounce back up from the Support line to a more attractive selling area proved to be the wrong decision. The market bounce was less than a flat basketball dropped from one foot off the ground. The market has now dropped through the 1.3300 support line but I am not going to chase the market. Plenty of opportunities will be available later. (I will stick my neck out and say that I think that the 1.3201 price hit at 7.20 pm NY time today will be the low for the next couple of days..... before the price resumes going South )
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 586
It is 3.00am NY time Wednesday April 21 and the market is at 1.3442
My two SELL trades (1.3491 and 1.3474) are playing themselves out. The Support line at approximately 1.3300 is still the target.Those of you who took my suggestion yesterday to close at 1.3400 and wait for a small bounce to get in higher will have done well.
I left the trades alone because firstly, I was only expecting a small bounce of maybe 20 pips and secondly, when it does break the 1.3400 line, I am expecting a very quick and sharp drop so I did not want to close my trades and be left stranded. (In hindsight, I should have closed at just above the 1.3400)
I am continuing to let my trades play themselves out
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3376 My two SELL trades (1.3491 and 1.3474) are playing themselves out. The Support line at approximately 1.3300 is still the target. I am moving my Stop Loss down to 1.3400 to lock in 91 and 74 pips respectively and let the trades play out a little longer. I have also set orders to close the positions at 1.3310
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3383 My trades were closed out by my Stop Losses at 9.25am for 91 and 74 pips profit respectively. I am just going to watch the market for a while before I take another trade. I am looking for an upward bounce to get back in again at a higher price.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3387 I am still waiting for a bounce to get back in again. I always prefer to ride the down trend by getting back in at a higher price than where I closed the previous trade. So I am looking to get back in at 1.3400 or higher. I may get lucky in the Asian session...
The market seems to be consolidating at the present time. BUT the elephant is still in the room. The PIIGS issue has not gone away. The Euro is still in serious trouble and the problem has not been resolved.
Emails
Email 1
You say that all the US Dollar pairs follow the same basic trend movements but there seems to be a divergence now. Am I imagining it or is there a reason why the Pound, Aussie and Canadian loonie is not reacting in a similar trending way to the Euro? A good question. Usually all the USD pairs follow the same movement over the longer terms because the major factor in all the moves is the impact of news on the USD. (The news regarding the other half of the USD pairs has, relatively, much less impact)
However, at the moment, the biggest news event is the impact of the PIIGS problems on the EUR half of the pair. So you have the EUR/USD going down because of the news out of Europe. The EUR is being driven down because everyone (including us) are selling the EUR and buying the USD.
But some of the other big Funds and banks are not prepared to sell the EUR and put ALL of it into the USD. They want to spread their risk, so they are buying AUD's and GBP's and CAD's etc which is pushing them up.
BUT, if Greece does default and the world starts to panic about the other PIIGS, you will hear a gigantic sucking noise as all the funds are sucked back out of the riskier AUD, GBP, CAD etc currencies and are converted to the much safer USD. Those other currencies will drop quickly and deeply.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 585
It is 2.30am NY time Tuesday April 20 and the market is at 1.3450
This post is 30 minutes early as I am about to go out on a date with Mrs Jackson (usually means shopping in downtown Kowloon, Hong Kong....LOL). I will be back for the US session open.
My two trades (1.3590 and 1.3560) were closed out yesterday at 1.3450 for a combined 250 pip profit.
I am still a strong bear in this market. So I then started looking to get back into some SELLS again at a higher level (around the round number resistance of 1.3500). I SOLD the first one at 1.3491 (at 7.48pm NY time), followed by the second one at 1.3474 (at 11.30pm NY time). Both have 100 pip fixed Stop Losses. My exposure is again 4% on the combined trades. I don't usually take two trades so close but I am keen to rack up some pips for the Fund. I have noticed that I am much more focused on my trading since I returned from NY. I think that I have learned a lot from seeing how focused and determined the NY traders were to push out good numbers.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3498. The market has moved up in London trading, so I am now hoping for a change in direction in the NY session to get the trades back on track in the downside direction.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3441 My two trades are playing themselves out. The Support line at 1.3300 is again the target
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3420 My two trades SELLS are playing themselves out. The Support line at 1.3300 is again the target. Those of you who want to be more active may want to close at 1.3400 and wait for a small bounce to get in higher. I am leaving the trades alone and letting them play out for a while longer
Emails
Email 1
There has been some discussion here in the UK that Greece might, as a temporary measure, be taken out of the EEC because of their financial problems. Kicked out, screaming and fighting , more likely.... Leaving the EU will cause a huge reduction in the Greek standard of living
This doesn't look to be on the table in the immediate future but do you consider it is a good possibility at some point? Yes, the EU need to make one of the PIIGS an example so that all the other PIIGS actually DO something about their economies
Email 2
As you've been pointing out yourself we've been a bit unfortunate in our entries while the long term directional bias SHOULD be correct. Yes...we were pipped out by just 10 pips in some of the trades and then the market turned and dived like a shot duck...!!
I was wondering if in your eariler trading career (perhaps more aggressive ?) when you were clear about the long term direction (eur long in 2006) did you still practice the 50 pip stoploss tactics Yes , because I trusted the AH to get me back in
or you just let the trade play itself out even if you were in the red for say 200 pips ? No way
I know the antihedge plays a great role but when i think about our recent stop at 3800 there were no AH strategy to employ at that time. The volatility of the last 18 months has shaken me on the AH but I am getting my confidence back in it . The trip to NY has also hardened my resolve to go back to basics and not be so influenced by the "calls" of the group
Or you just take it as an unfortunate outcome and move on ? Oh yes... Those trades are in the past now…..No point in crying over them..Time to get back into gear and trade better from now on… The market has no memory
Email 3
About compounding. There is an odd thing happening in my head where suddenly i find it WAAAYYY MORE logical to add to a winner than to add to a loser :) I NEVER add to a loser. That's financial suicide. The theory of averaging down (adding to a loser) is alluring and seductive …but it will give you huge STDs (seductively transmitted debt)
Email 4
Another thought on Greece: Don't remember what politician it was, but some Euro guy anyway. Apparently there is talk about outlawing credit default swaps. Yes, that was the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
Does this 'expert' have a fundamental misunderstanding of how the world works? Or am I just missing something painfully obvious? He is a politician looking desperately for someone to blame for the problems that he and his fellow politicians and the bankers have created I'm wondering if the greater goal is to monetize the world's debt, inflate everything away, and in turn wipe out whatever spare capital may be available. Yes, that is the logical and only solution...
Good Lord, and Greece can't even do that unless everyone else does too. correct
Uhh..that's a real problem. Yes and its about to get much worse....
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 584
It is 3.00am NY time Monday April 19 and the market is at 1.3440
My two sets of trades are continuing to play themselves out. (I have a SELL at 1.3590 and another SELL at 1.3560).
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Support line (which is the medium term price target) is found by linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3, 2009) and and 1.3267 (March 24, 2010) and 1.3281 (April 7, 2010) currently at around 1.3300
The Resistance line is found by linking up the highest points on the daily chart starting from 1.5140 (Dec 2) and 1.3692 (April 11) and 1.3679 (April 13) and 1.3666 (April 14) with the resistance line today at approx 1.3650.
Edit 7.55am NY time Market is at 1.3434 I am continuing to hold my two SELLS. I am moving my Stop Losses to 1.3450 to lock in profits. We now have a guaranteed 250 pips from the two trades and they are still playing themselves out
Edit 12.10 pm NY time Market is at 1.3459 We were closed out with our Stop Loss at 1.3450 at 9.55am today for a combined 250 pip profit. The market has since moved as high as 1.3475. I am looking to get back in again at a higher level to where we closed out our trade . We may see a retracement back up towards the 1.3500 level. I will be a willing seller at that level or higher
Edit 6.50pm NY time The market is at 1.3484. I am a SELLER at 1.3490 or higher. A 100 pip fixed Stop Loss.
Edit 7.48pm NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3491, A 100 pip fixed Stop Loss
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is now at 1.3486. Market has moved down quickly because of pre- Hong Kong and Singapore opening. However, you should be able to get entry at 1.3490 or higher again later...Oh look, it is back at 1.3491 already
Edit 11.30pm NY time The market is at 1.3474. I have decided to add another SELL trade at the current market price. A 100 pip SL I have SOLD at 1.3474
From a fundamental view, the market will continue to fall over the longer term, though there will be some upward corrections. The fall is due to three major factors (all of which relate to Greece) Firstly, there has been much cheering and backslapping by the ECB Governing Council that last weeks 1.5 Billion Euro Greek Treasury Bills were all sold (though I believe that it was the EU countries that bought them and not any real investors). However this 1.5Billion is totally overshadowed by the fact that Greece needs to refinance 54 Billion Euros this year. The likelihood that Greece will sell 54Billion worth of Euros this year is zero. Secondly, the interest being charged on those T Bills is now a punishing 7.66%. Greece's interest bill is getting bigger and bigger because of the high interest it is paying. It is earning less than its interest payable on its debts. (And even worse, now Portugal's interest rate on its debt is now starting to jump up. Uh OH........) Thirdly, the ECB Governing Council member (and Governor of the Bank of France), Mr Noyer said on the weekend that the possibility of contagion from Greece to the other PIIGS countries was"very remote". Let me tell you something from history...when the Asian meltdown started in Thailand it spread to all the ther Asian countries very quickly. No one was spared. Mr Noyer and the rest of the ECB Governing Council is DESPERATELY trying to hold up the Euro.....BUT, it won't work... The Euro is in serious trouble....And all the rhetoric and talking does not fix the problem that has been caused by the politicians and their bankers....
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 583
It is 3.00am NY time Friday April 16 and the market is at 1.3530
My two sets of trades are playing themselves out. (I have a SELL at 1.3590 and another at 1.3560). There has been multiple opportunities to get in at 1.3550 or higher since I sent the SMSes at 8.15pm NY time last night, so everyone who wants to be in, should be in.
My exposure is now 4% on the combined trades, but I am comfortable. Both trades have fixed 100 pip Stop Losses ((1,3690 and 1.3660 respectively). I am looking to hold these for the medium term.
On a lighter note:.....There was a report out Morgan Stanley earlier today that Germany (not Greece,... GERMANY) was considering pulling out of the Euro. I don't believe it but if Germany deserted the Euro, I would revise my prediction for the Euro to fall to 1.1000 by the end of the year......... It would fall to 0.5000 within a week !!!!!! The Euro would be toilet paper....
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3536 My two sets of trades are still playing themselves out. On a lighter note, there is a poster on FF who is stating that one of the members here (ForexMick) and I are the same person. Because I know it is not true, I am offering a $5000 trading account to anyone who can give me some proof. The same poster has also said that another member (Fxtrader29) is the same. Again, I will offer the same deal. A $5000 trading account. Just give me some proof. A hint: I have NEVER posted under any other name than my name, Jacko. And I have much better things to do than to answer some immature and childish posts on FF
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3490. My two sets of trades are still playing themselves out. I have decided to keep them open over the weekend. I believe that any news will be bad news for the EUR and there will be a gap down on Monday. The more conservative traders may want to close their position today.
Emails
Email 1
What is the possible reason market moving sideways in range 1.3550-1.3617 for 24 hours? The market is finely balanced with buyers and sellers in matching numbers. But it also is usually indicative that the big players are on the sidelines and waiting for a clearer indication of where the market is going
Email 2
What do you think will happen to the Euro/USD if the SPX crashes steeply, as many expect? Is it positive or negative for the USD ? The USD would normally rise (Euro down) but I think firstly, that the SPX (the S&P 500 stock index) will not crash...maybe fall 10% over time. and secondly, the Greek / PIIGS currency issue has far more significance to the EUR/USD
If one can answer this with some certainty then one can position for it. But I feel the best approach will be to just observe what the market does and let the charts tell us what to do. Yes I agree... What do you think? The SPX is ripe for a correction and the EUR /USD will continue to fall...But the link between the two indexes is not a 100% correlation
Email 3
Do you think that if China revalues the renminbi it will have a significant impact on the EUR/USD, or rather the USD? It would strengthen the USD more than the Euro. So the EUR/USD would fall. But the Chinese have absolutely NO inclination to revalue the Yuan/Renminbi to a significant degree..China talks and talks and talks ...but continues to increase their exports and keep their unemployment low and the population happy because they all have a job.....AND THAT is the most important thing to the Chinese leadership
Email 4
I wouldn't mind betting that the Euro has been getting some help from the ECB - nothing glaringly obvious like the Swiss intervention but enough to curb the free-fall decline and to put a bit of doubt into the minds of the shorts.Oh..I agree !!! Who do you think bought that 1.2 Billion worth of Greek T Bills??? No one else would be that stupid!!!!!
I watched keenly the price action yesterday and today, and both days started out very bearish with the sell offs being fast and furious and the rallies less so. Mondays low broke twice on Tuesday into the open gap & both breaks looked convincing but something stopped them dead in their tracks.Yes, they are DESPERATE, DESPERATE, DESPERATE to keep the Euro afloat
Email 5
The current trade's stop is at 1.3690. Common advice about stops is to place them beyond 'obvious' levels like round numbers. In this case there is a very attractive round level at 1.3700 just after our stop. Would it not be better to place the stop beyond the 'stop loss hunting' levels, say at 1.3722 or thereabouts? Yes, that is a good strategy...
I am guessing that you stick to this stop level to not mess around with your trading rules. Yes I suppose if you can change the level for some reason, it becomes a slippery slope and pretty soon the rule becomes ineffective. YES !!!!
Just trying to understand how you deal with the kind of problems that face us all in trading. You are on the right track
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 582
We have been continuing to flirt with the Stop Loss but it has moved away marginally during Asian trading and we are still in play. I am letting the trade continue to play itself out. The market can be quite boring when weare in a trade just waiting for a reasonable move to break away from the tight ranges. That famous trader Jesse Livermore once said, "We get paid to wait."
While we wait, the Greek situation gets progressively worse. Its bond rate has edged back up over 7%, a challenge is being mounted in the German courts as to the constitutionality of the German bail out and Greek default is now a forgone, and inevitable conclusion. It is just a matter of timing.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3543. I am continuing to let my trade play itself out. There are three US news announcements today. They are the US Unemployment numbers at 8.30am, the TIC Long Term Purchases at 9.00am and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10.00am. There may be a possible short term retracement IF any of the news announcements is negative for the USD.
However, the effect will be minimal because the elephant in the room is the Greek / PIIGS issue. The medium term downward momentum has resumed. . I am looking at an initial target of 1.3300 by the middle of next week. I am also looking to compound up my position by adding new positions, possibly later today.
As I wrote yesterday, "we have been unlucky on a couple of trades lately where we have just been pipped out before the market makes a significant retracement. Lets see if we can avoid that this time". The market has now turned in our favor. We have held the trade for three days and endured a move up against our position ...we can now hold it for maybe three days and benefit from the down move.
Edit 12.o5pm NY time Market is at 1.3537 I am continuing to let this trade play itself out.
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3567 I am continuing to hold this trade. The market has turned in our favor. I am looking to add to this compound up my position by adding new positions. I usually like to wait for a 100 pip move before adding positions but I am confident that the market has changed resumed direction. I am a SELLER at 1.3550 or higher. I will be looking to SELL very soon
Edit 8.15pm NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3560 A 100 pip Fixed SL
Edit 8.45pm NY time NOTE A couple of the members (who are on the backup SMS system out of Asia) have received the wrong SMS message. (It was a copy of a previous SMS).
It should have read as: It is 8.14pm NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3560 A 100 pip Fixed SL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 581
It is 2.30am NY time Wednesday April 14 and the market is at 1.3650
This post is a little earlier than normal as I have a meeting at 3.00pm HK time (3.00am NY time) and a dinner later. My SELL at 1.3590 trade is still playing itself out. The market has not done what I expected but the trade is still in play. My Stop Loss is at 1.3690.I will be back for US opening.
Edit 7.35am NY time Market is at 1.3608 My trade is still in play and it is looking better than it did at the London open.
Heading back out to a dinner. Will answer emails early tomorrow
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3667 The market has moved up quickly in the last hour after Mr Bernanke said he saw "significant restraints" on the US economy, causing the USD to fall. Our Stop Loss is at risk of being hit.
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3655 We have been flirting with the Stop Loss but we are still in play. I am letting the trade continue to play itself out. We have been unlucky on a couple of trades lately where we have just been pipped out before the market makes a significant retracement. Lets see if we can avoid that this time.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 580
It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday April 13 and the market is at 1.3612
My SELL at 1.3590 trade is still playing itself out.Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3592 The market has stayed in a tight range. Over the last 24 hours it has been basically plus or minus 20 pips from our SELL price of 1.3590. The Greek T Bill auction has taken place and they have sold more than the small 1.2Billion Euros that they had originally planned. However, 1.2 Billion Euros is a drop in the ocean compared to its annual debt requirements. The Euro is still in serious trouble. This problem has not gone away.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3581 The market is very dull and is not making any major moves. My trade is continuing to play itself out
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3614 This market is certainly stuck in a rut around the 1.3590 area. The move will come and I expect it will be to the downside as it becomes more and more obvious that the Greek problem (which is the dominant factor in the market at the moment) has not been resolved and that the problem will not go away just because the politicians want it to go away. The Euro is in serious trouble, just like the GBP was some years ago.
Email 1
Interesting review from you visit with Fund managers in New York. Yes it was a good fact finding lesson. I wanted to know more about this new industry that I am in. (Managed Funds).
Though not appealing, it's not surprise how the managers see the traders as grunts and that performance is the end all and be all. Like you say, it's a wonder any decent traders don't just trade their own account. Surely there's more to that story (contract restrictions etc). They do have those restrictions but it is more to stop them from moving to another broker and taking their clients
I am curious about one thing and not sure if you got into it in your discussions; and that is the trading methodology used by most of these institutional traders. They were fairly cagey about their trading methods (which found a little silly because I didn't get the impression that they were doing anything special)...They just had big resources behind them and took mostly position trading positions and were able to withstand bigger moves without panicking.
Were you able to exchange trade "secrets" and methods -- or was that taboo? Hmmm...not really, but maybe they did have something that I just never saw...But I don't think so... I think that they simply treat it as a cold hard business and have lots of resources in reserve to withstand any major move against them and can wait for it to move back to the trend lines
It's been said that banks tend to be more Fundamental traders. Do you think that's the case. Or were they using ABCD methods and Fib extensions and the like? A combination of both but more lined up with the technical side of trading. To be honest, I didn't see them doing anything different to the way I trade except they do not use 100 pip Stop Losses… They tend to hold until they make a decision that they were wrong. Then they cut the trade.
Do you think funds of this size can effect the market and if so, can you tell us anything more about how they "think"? They think much, much longer term than the usual retail trader
What are they looking for when they trade? Follow the trends and not panic when it gets stretched away from the trend lines... It comes back more often than not
Sounds like it was an enlightening visit. It was. I learned a lot about this industry (Managed Funds) that I am now in. On the other hand, I was disappointed by the intense focus on money by what I consider young adults....The ruthlessness was a very unattractive trait to see in young people...
Kudos to Mark for the introductions and congrats to yourself for your track record that speaks for itself. Thanks
Email 2
Reading your blog , you say."Having said that, there may still be a reaction from the European and US sessions as their senior traders are briefed"My question is .... could you just expand on what happens when "senior traders are briefed"? The move took place in Australia and Asia before the US and European markets were open. The senior brokers in US and Europe were not in their offices...they were probably out to dinner (US) or pushing up zzzzzz's (asleep) in Europe. They would have walked into their offices on Monday morning when it was all over
Is this a Corporate strategy being communicated to senior traders, who presumably then brief junior traders? Yes ie, EU & IMF have put a package together over the weekend, we think it's doomed. Hold off for a short while, then get back in short? Yes
I'm just curious as to how it works. Are the traders not allowed/encouraged to trade as they wish? Nooooo !!!!! After my visit to NY a while back I have learned that traders are severely restricted Or would they not take much interest in the fundamental side of things? The more senior the trader, the more they look to the fundamentals
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 579
It is 3.00am NY time Monday April 12 and the market is at 1.3630
There has been a huge jump in the Euro due to news that a "potential" rescue package of $60 Billion ($40Billion from Europe and $20Billion from the IMF) has been made available that Greece can "potentially" access. They have also stated that the "non-concessional" rate will be set at 5% (which is significantly below the 7.5% rate that the market was demanding last week for Greek bonds).
However, I get the strong feeling that this is all about hype. The plan is not set in concrete. Firstly, Greece has to make a formal request for the funds. (It has not done so yet...) Secondly, IF Greece makes the formal request, there has to be a unanimous sign off on the package by the 16 European countries (including the other, struggling PIIGS) . Thirdly, they have also reserved the right to modify any terms and penalties of the package. Fourthly, and most importantly, the comments seem to be aimed sending out "a warning" to Hedge Funds, Bankers, market players etc, instead of implementing a definite action plan. (see quotes below)
The Greek prime minister stated "With today's decision, the whole of Europe sends a clear message: that no one can play with our common currency, no one can play with our common fate," he said.
Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, who heads the group of finance ministers from the euro zone members, said at a news conference in Brussels: "It shows there is money behind this."
Also, even if Greece borrows the $60Billion (or part thereof), that simply increases the Greek debt (unless they use the funds to pay out older and more expensive bonds). This looks very much like a confidence trick. This has not resolved the problem of the Greek economy. And it has not resolved the problems of the other PIIGS economies. This move up in the Euro is looking unsustainable to me.
Having said that, there may still be a reaction from the European and US sessions as their senior traders are briefed. I would suggest that this market will hit the ceiling by the Tuesday US session at the latest. I am again looking to SELL into this market but want to watch the European and US markets today. As discussed on Friday, the big funds were short-covering on Friday. They are getting ready to get back in again after Greece's Treasury Bill auction on Tuesday.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3574 The market has moved down marginally during the London session. There are no Technical Analysis reasons for taking a trade at the present time except that it is dropping back to the broken Daily Resistance Line (from 1.5140 (Dec 2) and 1.3818 (March 16) and 1.3589 (April 1) to 1.3500. However, there is (to me) overwhelming Fundamental Analysis reasons for taking a SELL trade at the 1.3600 area. (see above). I am therefore taking a trade based NOT on the charts but, instead, on the Fundamental reasons. If you do not feel confident of those Fundamental reasons, then feel free NOT to take the trade.
I am a SELLER at 1.3590.
Edit 8.25am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3590. I have a 100 pip fixed Stop Loss
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3582 I am now letting the trade play itself out
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3589 The market has settled into a small range. In the last 12 hours, the market has been stuck in a basically a small 40 pip range from 1.3570 to 1.3610. The bigger players are waiting to see if any investors are prepared to accept Greek Treasury Bills at the low rate of 5% when they are auctioned later today. If the auction results are not over-subscribed, Greece and the PIIGS are toast. (I would also suspect that the European countries and IMF will be desperate to make the auction look a resounding success, so they will be active buyers...They can't bail out Greece but they can buy Greece's cheap, but ultra risky, T Bills ... and using their respective country's taxpayers funds to pay for them). The Euro is in serious trouble. My trade is still playing itself out.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 578
It is 3.00am NY time Friday April 9 and the market is at 1.3386
I am annoyed that I didn't get my trade this week. I am waiting for a retracement back up closer to the Resistance line for a Sell. I may go in 20 pips under the line next time to make sure that I get set. I have missed some good opportunities in the last couple of weeks because I was setting the entry at the Resistance line instead of just under it. I will have to get more aggressive with my entries. I may use more aggressive entry points
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3392 The market has been rallying upwards for the last 24 hours as it struggles to get back up towards the Resistance line again. The US session will hopefully nudge it slightly higher because I want to get into a short position early next week. The Greek problem has not gone away and its situation is getting worse. Greece is paying a higher interest rate on its loans than it can afford, which means that its debt size continues to grow. The other PIIGS are also paying higher costs for their loans than they can afford. This slight correction upwards is an opportunity to get back in to the short trades at a higher level.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3474 The market has moved up strongly in the US session on short covering by some big funds. There is talk that a rescue deal for Greece will be announced over the weekend. My SELL at 1.3500 orders remain in place
Edit 6.30pm NY time Market is closed. The market has moved up to as high as 1.3497 in the last minutes of trading. My orders were not filled so I have now cancelled them in after hours. There may be more news about the Greek situation over the weekend.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 577
It is 3.00am NY time Thursday April 8 and the market is at 1.3322
The market has not moved much in Asian trade. I will have to get more aggressive with my entries. I have missed a couple of good entries in the last couple of weeks by small numbers of pips. I may use more aggressive entry points
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3302 I am annoyed with myself that I have had some good opportunities in the last couple of weeks but I have missed the entry points by being a little too conservative and safe. I need to step up my risk on my entries.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3358 I have been looking for pullbacks to the Resistance line allow me to enter this market, but the market as been relentless and sustained in its down move. I am looking for an entry point with minimal risk attached but just can't see one at the present time.
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market is at 1.3375. I am waiting for a retracement back up closer to the Resistance line for a Sell. I may go in 20 pips under the line next time to make sure that I get set. I have missed some good opportunities because I was setting the entry at the Resistance line instead of just under it.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 576
It is 3.00am NY time Wednesday April 7 and the market is at 1.3383
The market has been reasonably stable in the last 24 hours. I am a seller in this market but the Resistance line is at 1.3500. Plus the market has been hitting the 1.3500 area repeatedly since as far back as Feb 17...it is highly likely that it will hit it again in the next day or two. I am a SELLER at the Resistance Line area of 1.3500.
I am just heading out to a meeting and will be back for the US session opening.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3350 The market is showing weakness and looks to be heading to its previous lows. Damn.. But jumping in at this level is too risky. I will wait for the retracement to Resistance
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3364 The market is moving back up after falling to as low as 1.3325. My sell at 1.3500 is still in place.
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market is at 1.3330 After dropping down in the London session, the market has consolidated in the US session today. I will have to get more aggressive with my entries. I have missed a couple of good entries in the last couple of weeks by small numbers of pips. I may use more aggressive entry points
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 575
It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday April 6 and the market is at 1.3435
We are back in business after the extended Easter Break.
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Resistance line is found by linking up the highest points on the daily chart starting from 1.5140 (Dec 2) and 1.3818 (March 16) and 1.3589 (April 1) with the resistance line today at approx 1.3500.
The Support line is found by linking up the lowest points onthe Daily chart starting from 1.2460 (March 3, 2009) and and 1.3267 (March 24, 2010) currently at around 1.3300
The 50% fib line Last week, the most relevant 50% fib line was the target retracement number of 1.3542 which is the 50% fib from 1.3817 (March 16) to 1.3267 (March 24). This target was hit. So we now work from the RIGHT hand side of the chart and look for the next potential target. The next 50% fib line is seen as the midpoint of the bigger move from 1.4579 (on Jan 12) and 1.3267 (on March 24). This gives us a 50% Fib number at 1.3923. Since the Resistance line is closer, I will be using the stronger Resistance line number as my SELL area.
I am now waiting for a retracement back up to the Resistance line area at 1.3500 so that I can SELL into this downtrend again.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3402 I am a SELLER at the Resistance Line area of 1.3500. I will be sending an SMS message as it gets closer to the target. This market has been hitting the 1.3500 area repeatedly since as far back as Feb 17...it is highly likely that it will hit it again in the next day or two.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3380 The market has dropped marginally but I am waiting for a move up closer to the Resistance line to sell this market.
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market is at 1.3400 I am waiting for the market to get back to the 1.3500 Resistance area. I expect it to get there within the next 24-48 hours where I will be waiting for it. I am still a long term SELLER of the Euro.The Greek crisis has not gone away and we are seeing more anecdotal evidence of deeper concern. It has been reported that Greek families sent 5 Billion Euros offshore in Jan and another 3 Billion Euros in Feb.
I am a SELLER of the Euro at 1.3500. The SMSes are just being sent
Emails
Thank you for all the emails over the Easter break. I now have a backlog from last Thursday...!!!...LOL.. I will start answering them now. (I hope everyone had an enjoyable Easter break with their families and friends).
Email 1
1. Do all big traders - NOT leave trades open at the weekends? I am not sure about the percentage... but it would be high
2. Am I silly or stupid to do so? No, I don't think so...But I prefer it because it allows you to have a clear mind over the weekend to think, without the pressure of having to think about a trade
Email 2
I have quick question concearning price action around significant S&R areas.
I know if the price is rapidly rejected from the res/sup lines that means that it will probably hold. ( at least for a while:)Yes
If the price is sitting on it it will probably break that levels. yes
But sometimes price is firstly rejected ( maybe for around 30 or 40 pips) and then goes streight though the res line. Yes, the initial move is to drop back and pick up some momentum to then break it
Sometimes i have been waiting hours watching for price action around this levels and a still had no clue about the direction . it's great that there are only two possible direction that makes that sometimes i am right LOL .Yes, so i is sometimes best to let it run and then jump in once the direction is clearer Is there any time period you would recomend to wait and watch price action around supports/ res? I think it is more about the number of pips rather than time...If a market breaks a Resistance line by 100 pips, you can safely say that it is NOT Stop Loss hunting and it is NOT a false break out...it is the real thing...The downside is that you have "given up" 100 pips before entering...Those are the trade-offs that we must make as traders or is it strictly linked to the time frame we are trading on? so trading on 4 hours resistance means i have to wait another 4 hours or so . No, you can still jump in earlier as soon as the direction is established
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 574
It is 8.00am NY time Monday April 5 (Easter Monday) and the market is at 1.3464
All the worlds markets are closed for Easter and there is only skeletal trading taking place. It is very thin trading.
I will be back for the start of London trading tomorrow
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 573
It is 3.00am NY time Thursday April 1 and the market is at 1.3476
Good Morning Europe. The market is moving erratically / noisily in the upper area between the Support and Resistance lines as we wait for it to get to our SELL trades at the Resistance line. The market has been wandering around in a small range as the directionless "noise" of the market moves it. The market has been as high as 1.3560, just 40 pips shy of my target SELL orders at 1.3600. The next impulse move up should fill the orders.Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3482. Good Morning the Americas and Canada. The market has been sticking very close to 1.3500 for the last ten hours. I was hoping that we would have seen the market get to 1.3600 by now but it has not happened yet. We are leading into the extended Easter break and the market will be getting thinner today. I will be watching the market until NY lunchtime today. If my orders are not filled by 12.05pm today, I will be canceling them.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3570 Good morning to West Coast of America The market has moved up very strongly in the US morning session to as high as 1.3587. I do not want to be holding a position over the extended Easter break,.... plus the market will also have a Non Farm Payroll announcement tomorrow when the worlds banks are almost all closed and the market will be super thin in liquidity..... so I have (reluctantly) canceled my orders. But I will be looking to re -open the order as soon as possible next week.
Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.3585 Good morning to Asia and Australia The market is now very thin and illiquid.... But tomorrow (Good Friday) we have the biggest market mover news event on the Forex Calendar with the release of the Non Farm Payroll numbers at 8.30 am NY time. With all world markets basically closed for Good Friday, the market will be easily manipulated. I have canceled all my orders and will be back next week to hopefully re-open my SELL orders
Some Notes from my visit to New York
I have been asked by a number of you to comment on my visit to New York and the various meetings.
My meetings with the various NY Fund Managers were very interesting. I am very fortunate that I was able to be recommended and referred by Mark to some very senior people in the industry who would never have agreed to meet me without his credibility and reference.
Also, the fact that I was an Owner/Principal of a Fund gave me a cache of credibility which I would not have had as just a trader.
I have learned a huge amount about this industry in the last week.
Firstly, this industry is the most ruthless and brutal that I have ever seen in my business career. The Executives that I met ALL considered traders as "grunts" or "pigs" or other disgraceful names and treated them with absolute contempt. The trading floor is NOT a place for sensitive people. It was the most de-humanizing workplace environment I have ever seen. I cannot understand why any of the traders stayed. They would have been better off trading for themselves.
Having got the job, traders are given an account to trade (which may or may not, be a dummy account). At the end of one month, their performance is reviewed… and the outcome is swift and, I think in many cases, brutally humiliating.
Secondly, it is based purely on Return on Investment, with the lowest risk factor. They do NOT care about the frequency of trades. They get NO enjoyment from the trading environment. They are ONLY interested in the results at the end of the period. They are very scathing of any of the trading indicators such as MACD's, stochs etc.
Fortunately, their general opinion is that my results last year, during the GFC were outstanding. The results so far this year are considered significantly better than average, based on the 2% maximum capital risk. As a result, I had some credibility with the various people that I met
Also, because they trade in this commodity called "money", they have no pride in producing a good product nor do they care about customer satisfaction with their "product". Because I have come from a manufacturing background, where a pride in your product and a pride in knowing that customer satisfaction was all important, I found it disconcerting that the people I met were totally blind to those issues. It was numbers only…nothing else!!!
Thirdly, the demand for traders is good at the present time. However, they are looking for higher Degree - qualified (minimum Masters qualifications) people preferably with some experience at either an Investment Bank, Hedge Fund or Brokerage. Also, it helps to already have completed the Series 3/35 exams.
Alternatively, they will also consider a trader who has 2 years solid trading results on a "live" account of size ($10,000 +). If you can be recommended in by another experienced Broker, that can be reduced to a year. However, Mark has also told me that any trader that is performing well is usually noticed reasonably quickly by their current brokers and are invited to have discussions with the Brokerage at some time. (This is how Mark and I got together). All brokerages monitor their Accounts for significantly "better than average" trading results.
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