July 2010

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 649

It is 3.00am NY time Friday July 30 and the market is at 1.3085

The market has retained its resilience at the upper end of the range. However, the market is also still not showing any great urgency to break much higher. We may see this market take a breather and drop marginally over the course of the day.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3030 The market has dropped over 100 pips in early London trading from profit taking, but is recovering slightly in the lead in to the US session.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3065 The market has recovered equally strongly in early US trading. A very unsettled market in the EUR/USD lately.

This is the end of the Quarter and, for the first time in almost five years, I have had a losing Quarter. While the loss is not large, it is annoying that I have had a loss. On the other side of the coin, I am relieved that the responsibility of the fund is almost completely lifted and I can get back to being responsible only for my own trading.
We are preparing the final Statements on Monday and will be remitting the remaining funds to the small group from the trading group next week.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 648

It is 3.00am NY time Thursday July 29 and the market is at 1.3035

The market has again floated up towards the upper levels of its range for the week. This market is showing no real sense of urgency at all in moving up beyond the upper levels of the range that it has been in all week. Even the news that Arnie Schwartzenneger (the Terminator) has declared a fiscal emergency for California was not enough to weaken the USD enough to send the Euro up through the 1.3050 barrier.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3070 The market jumped very quickly when it broke this weeks high of 1.3047 and the nearby 1.3050 round number. It has now been as high as 1.3090 and I am annoyed that it has broken through. I have been hoping for a pullback but it has not occurred. It now looks as if the pullback to 1.2732 on July 20 was the maximum it is going to retrace.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3070 The market did not go much further after it hit the 1.3090 earlier high.It has only been as high as 1.3107. I am now re-considering my approach to where to get back into the market as it now seems that the pullback to the Resistance line is now unlikely.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 647

It is 3.00am NY time Wednesday July 28 and the market is at 1.3020

The market has again floated up towards the upper levels of its range for the week. As stated yesterday, this market may not be acting as it often does and I may be wrong in my expectation of it touching the Resistance line for a confirmation touch. I am prepared to give it a little more time and see what the London and US market does.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3005 This market is showing no real sense of urgency at all in moving up beyond the upper levels of the range that it has been in all week. I think we may be seeing a some consolidation at this area before a fall later in the week.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.3001 (again). As stated above, this market is having a real problem breaking upwards. It has been limited to the top of the range even after yesterdays impressive moves in European and UK banks stock prices on the news that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has moderated its planned crackdown on European and UK banks. If the Euro has trouble breaking upwards on the news that a 1,500 Billion Euro "wall of worry" for the European banks had disappeared overnight, then the continued up move looks tenuous. I think we may be seeing a some consolidation at this area before a fall later in the week.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 646

It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday July 27 and the market is at 1.3005

The market is very undecided about the impact and results of the Stress Tests. Everyone we are talking to are taking a "wait and see" approach. The German govt has capitulated and have consented to the publication of their "hidden" numbers.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3039 The market has just nudged above the high of 1.3028 (from July 20). This market may not be acting as it often does and I may be wrong in my expectation of it touching thhe Resistance line for a confirmation touch. I am prepared to give it a little more time and see what the US market does.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.2981. The market has dropped back again as USD improved on the Case Shiller indexes showed an improvement in thee US housing market and strengthened further on the US Consumer Confidence numbers. The Euro is having great difficulty in getting enough momentum for a continued bullish move this week. The market is not making any real direction so far this week so I am still prepared to wait for a clearer technical sign.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 645

It is 3.00am NY time Monday July 26 and the market is at 1.2940

The market this week will be digesting and reacting to the news of the Stress tests on the European banks. The results of those tests were (purposely) released on Friday after the European (and Asian) markets had closed which left only a small window of time during the final half of the US session to react to the 50+ page Report. This week should see a clearer reaction to what has generally been seen as a PR exercise of the bigger banks exceeding a relatively easy hurdle.
I am continuing to wait for a bigger pull back to closer towards the Resistance line (the 300 bar Daily Resistance line from 1.5140 (Dec 2, 2009) and 1.3679 (April 13, 2010) and 1.2739 (July 12, 2010) area.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.2935 The European markets have been very calm about the results of the Stress tests in Europe. The market has not shown any great reaction (positive or negative) today. The New York session may be more active. There has not been any clear direction set out by the Asian and European markets.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.2987 The market took a small jump in the latter part of European trading as a feeling of comfort from the Stress Tests seems to be getting stronger. I personally am not convinced of their value because I am not sure that the tests were sufficiently robust.

Emails. I am still working through the backlog of emails sent while I was on vacation and also during last week when we were processing the remittances for Marks group. Please be patient. I will be back onto the emails again tomorrow. (It is midnight here).

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 644

It is 3.00am NY time Friday July 23 and the market is at 1.2881

The market took a quick 50 pip dive at 1.35am today. Apart from that, the market is on hold awaiting the effects of the bank stress tests. I am continuing to wait for a bigger pull back to closer towards the Resistance line (the 300 bar Daily Resistance line from 1.5140 (Dec 2, 2009) and 1.3679 (April 13, 2010) and 1.2739 (July 12, 2010) area.
I am waiting for the market to get closer to the falling Resistance line area of 1.2600 for a confirmation touch.

Edit 1.00pm NY time Market is at 1.2842.The market has taken the news that 7 banks have failed the stress tests quite calmly. Maybe I am becoming cynical and skeptical, but the question that keeps hammering away in my brain is "where did all the bad debts go?".

We have now verified each of the remittances and receipt confirmations from each of Marks investors in the Fund. We will be requesting certain bank details from the smaller investors from the trading group over the weekend in the investors blog.

I am still working slowly through the emails. Please be patient

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 643

It is 1.45am NY time Thursday July 22 and the market is at 1.2785

The market has been reasonably stable in the Asian session and the market moves have been hesitant. I am continuing to wait for a bigger pull back to closer towards the Resistance line (the 300 bar Daily Resistance line from 1.5140 (Dec 2, 2009) and 1.3679 (April 13, 2010) and 1.2739 (July 12, 2010) area.

The market has moved as low as 1.2732 but think there may be a little more yet to be squeezed out of this move down. The market is still getting closer to the falling Resistance line area of 1.2600 for a confirmation touch. I am watching the market more closely as it gets closer to the area

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.2859 The Europeans have taken the market back up marginally. (An optimistic bunch... They must think that the European politicians and banks are going to be truthful about the stress tests...LOL). I will hold off until the market gets closer to the Resistance line because the market should have been closer for a confirmation touch.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.2900. Hmmmmm...I am wondering if it is making a burst upwards. Nah.... I will hold off until the market gets closer to the Resistance line because the market should have been closer for a confirmation touch.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 642

It is 2.30am NY time Wednesday July 21 and the market is at 1.2903

My caution yesterday regarding the potential for a continuing up movement was justified. The market dropped in the London session and the subsequent market moves have been hesitant. I am continuing to wait for a bigger pull back to closer towards the Resistance line (the 300 bar Daily Resistance line from 1.5140 (Dec 2, 2009) and 1.3679 (April 13, 2010) and 1.2739 (July 12, 2010) area.

I have a mountain of emails which I will be answering over the next week. Please be patient. At the moment, my priority is the orderly closure of the Fund and the remittances to each of the investors. We have now completed the remittances to all of Marks investor clients. We are awaiting confirmation emails before moving on to the trading group investors later this week.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.2821. The market is getting closer to the falling Resistance line area of 1.2600 for a confirmation touch. I am watching the market more closely as it gets closer to the area

Edit 7.00pm NY time Market is at 1.2766 The market has moved as low as 1.2732 but think there may be a little more yet to be squeezed out of this move down. The market is still getting closer to the falling Resistance line area of 1.2600 for a confirmation touch. I am watching the market more closely as it gets closer to the area

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 641

It is 3.00am NY time Tuesday July 20 and the market is at 1.3007

The market has moved up through the 1.3000 level and looks as though it may be heading to the 50% fib level of 1.3500. However, I am still wary of a drop back to the Resistance line area for a confirmation touch, so I am giving the market another couple of hours to see whether this move up will happen without the pullback.
The market in the last few weeks has been heavily reliant on China buying the Euro and the high profile buying of Spanish bonds. In addition, China's Premier Wen has been supportive comments about the Euro. When there is that much hype in the air, the market can sometimes get ahead of itself.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.2904 The market has fallen back during the London session to as low as 1.2839 but the early NY session has kicked it back up marginally. I think we will see the confirmation touch in the next day or two.
We have now completed the remittances to all of Marks investor clients. We are awaiting confirmation emails before moving on to the trading group investors.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 640

It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 19 and the market is at 1.2900

I am back....and looking forward to getting back into the markets. The load of responsibility on my shoulders is lifting.... and it feels great.

The market has shown a good recovery in the last two weeks. The Euro has now broken the 300 bar Daily Resistance line from 1.5140 (Dec 2, 2009) and 1.3679 (April 13, 2010) and 1.2739 (July 12, 2010) at 1.2735. The trend has changed from a down move to an UP move.

In the short term, we may see a move back to the Resistance line area for a confirmation touch. Over the medium term, the market's natural move will be to target the 50% retracement level from the high of 1.5144 (Nov 24, 2009) to the low of 1.1876 (July 6 2010) at approximately 1.3500 (1.3510 to be exact). However, in the longer term I still expect this market to continue to head to the 1.1000 area.

While I have been on vacation, the staff here have been busy finalizing all Marks client accounts and we will be remitting all payments to his group in the next day or two. I will be asking each of the investors from the trading group to forward their bank details later in the week.

I have a mountain of emails which I will be answering over the next week. Please be patient.

Edit 11.50am NY time Market is at 1.2963 The market has moved up in London trading. I am waiting to see if it moves back down for a confirmation touch at the Resistance line at which time I may be a buyer.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 639

It is 5.00 am NY time Monday July 12 and the market is at 1.2567

I am having a good break from the markets but I am looking forward to getting back into the markets on my return next week. Good trading to all.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 638

It is 3.00 am NY time Friday July 2 and the market is at 1.2491

Today is Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) day with the numbers being released at 8.30am NY time. The NFP numbers (and the FOMC Statements) are the biggest market movers on the Forex calendar.

There has been a large amount of volatility around the US economic releases in the last week so there may be a large swing on the release of the NFP numbers. As a result I will be watching to decide whether to activate the AH trade if the market swings up to 1.2550. At the present time, my preference is to stay out of the market today and let the market do the usual NFP fluctuations, swinging up and down, and taking out stop losses on both top and bottom.

NOTE : I am also taking a break from trading for the next two weeks to refresh and re-charge the batteries. (We have made some major decisions here in the last 10-14 days and the stress levels were high). I will return on July 19.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 637

It is 8.00 am NY time Thursday July 1 and the market is at 1.2335

My Sell orders at 1.2400 are still in place and I am waiting for them to be triggered.

Edit 12.05pm NY time Market is at 1.2463 The USD has dropped like a shot duck, firstly on worse than expected Unemployment Claims at 8.30am and then followed by worse than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers and the terrible Pending Home Sales numbers both released at 10.00am. The numbers coming out of the US are truly terrible at the present time. This has caused the USD to drop and the EUR to rise. My Sell orders at 1.2400 have been filled and I am now letting the trades play themselves out.

Edit 8.00pm NY time Market is at 1.2511 The market has continued to move up strongly as the USD has crumbled in the face of some terrible economic numbers and the lead up to tomorrows US Non Farm Payroll numbers. My Stop Loss was taken out at 1.2500 ad so I am now waiting for the market to break 1.2550 to trigger the setting up of an AH trade.



A SPECIAL MESSAGE FROM JACKO

In November 2007, I started this blog. It has been a rewarding two and a half years.
On August 8, 2008, I started the Managed Fund. As we come up to the second anniversary of the Fund, I have had to make a hard decision. Do I want to rapidly expand the Fund (as Mark could easily do, and would like me to do) or not. The Fund has performed very well, especially in its first year, when it produced exceptional positive returns while every other asset class (property, stocks bonds etc) were losing 50% of their value due to the Financial Crisis of 2009. It has continued to perform reasonably well this year.
However, I have come to the conclusion that, while I have enjoyed the experience of growing the Fund, I do not need, or want, the time consumption of developing another large and growing business over the next couple of years. I am at the stage of my life when I want to spend every day as if it were my last. (If I was 30 years younger I would attack this business with full gusto).
Having developed and sold two very large businesses previously in my business life, plus some smaller ones, it seems that I have a talent for building successful businesses. I was happily retired before I found forex and Mrs Jackson wishes to revert to that life with me trading just my own account.
Also I have found that, in these deteriorating economic times, the weight and responsibility of managing other people's money has been making me trade too cautiously and has impeded my own trading ability.
As a result of the above, I am closing the Fund and remitting the balances to each investor. We will be doing his in an orderly manner.
We will be be asking each of Mark's large investors to forward their bank details and closing their accounts during July.
For each of the investors from the Jackson trading group, we will be asking them to forward their bank details in early August. (Please see the JacksonFortressMembers website for more details. I will be updating it later today).

Furthermore, I have decided to continue the blog for only the next 12 months. I am not accepting any new members from today and, as many of you are aware, I have not been sending any renewal notices for the last six months. (I have been considering my decision as to the blog for some time). I will allow everyone to stay free of any renewal charge until the blog is closed.