MESSAGE FROM JACKO 457

It is 1.00am NY time Friday October 2 and the market is at 1.4541

I am still waiting with anticipation for the market to pop up to my 1.4600 - 1.4650 area. It is the Non Farm Payroll ( NFP ) day today. That is the day when all the traders beavering away in the banks etc get all hot and heavy and excited. And the brokers get ready to skin all the traders by ramping the price up and down and widening the spreads to pick off all the novice trader's with their tight spreads, or even better, the traders who are trying to "trade the news".
I am hoping that the quick volatility may give me the opportunity to SELL again at the extremes of the higher levels

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4535. The market is still too low for me to go short. I would rather take the opportunity to go short at an extreme of an artificial spike upwards generated by the NFP later today. As stated yesterday, the market may be very weak and continue to drop from its current levels. But the risk of loss from jumping back in at these levels (and getting hit by the retracement, especially with an NFP announcement) makes that option too risky for me

Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4540. My SMS from yesterday is still valid. I will be a SELLER again between 1.4600 and 1.4650. I am still bearish and believe that this market is heading down but I am waiting until the market gets back up closer to the new Resistance line so that I can SELL at a higher price.
I was hoping to be a SELLER again between 1.4600 and 1.4650 but the move may be too quick for me to write up the blog and SMSes and then send them. (The NFP can shoot the market up or down 100 pips in less than 2 minutes)
So I am placing a SELL order at 1.4625 with a 100 pip Stop Loss.

Edit 8.15am NY time SMSes have just been sent

Edit 8.45am NY time Market at 1.4518 The Upward reaction that I was hoping for has not occurred......yet. I will leave my SELL order at 1.4625 in place because anything is possible on NFP days.

Edit 10.15am NY time. My SELL at 1.4625 orders have just been filled

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4611. I am now letting the trade play itself out. I will be holding these trades over the weekend

Emails

Email 1
I trade on my own, and i also use your pointers for trades. I generally turn a profit on a lot of my trades, however, and this has been a big problem of mine, i can't seem to exit on time. A trade will go in my direction, and i will have gotten a 1:3 or 1:4 rr trade, but since it hasn't hit my ultimate target, many times i find myself getting out at breakeven. This market in the last 12 months has been very erratic and RR rates of 1:3 and 1:4 are unreasonable. This is compounded if you are using BE because the market is so volatile that the market will bounce back and close you out at BE
I know that you like to go for the 50% retracement on your trades. Yes...it is an initial target Many times, however, you will send an SMS indicating you have gotten out because you SEE the market turning. LOL sometimes I get greedy and want to close out and then get back in at a better price
I have two questions.
1. Is it of any concern to you that a trade to the 50% retracement may not be a good risk reward ratio since your sl is 100 pips behind, and the 50% may only be 100 pips or less? I never care about RR rates..I never use them You become too focused on achieving the RR rate of return at all costs, rather than just maximising the profit from the trade
2. This is the most important question (and if you will be inclined to discuss this answer in depth, i would be most grateful). How do you SEE the market turning? A gradual slowing of the momentum of the move as seen by just looking at a chart.(In a rising market, the higher highs and higher lows are not as pronounced...In a falling market, the lower lows and lower highs are not as pronounced)) I also consider whether a market is stretched (that is..If it has been moving in one direction too long without a significant retracement) . Also if there is a change in sessions about to happen Also if there is a high impact news event about to happen
How do you feel its time to get out? If in doubt, get out !! Do you look at the lower TF? No Do you look for a certain pattern? Hmmm...see above, The gradual slowing of the momentum of the charts It would greatly enhance my trading if i knew the answer to this. (Maybe you could suggest a book or some reading on this particular point?)Just look at the charts..then you will see it