MESSAGE FROM JACKO 459

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday October 6 and the market is at 1.4716

The market hs moved up and has been uncomfortably close to my Stop Loss. However, I have been in this situation before and have seen the market reverse and end well. I have a policy of not making decisions in the "heat" of a trade so I will continue to let this trade play itself out.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4711 The market has been as high as 1.4749, triggering my Stop Losses at 1.4725. I am both surprised and disappointed by the result of this trade as I felt quite comfortable with the trade and the way the market was trading. The move in Asian trading was unexpected and unwanted. Having said that, it is just a normal part of trading and we move on and start looking for the next trade set up.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4727. I am taking the rest of the day off to just quietly let the disappointment of the last trade disappear so that I don't take any revenge trades. I am also reviewing the various time frames to see if moving back to the Daily time frame will give a clearer pictures of the market for future trades. (As you know, we moved to 4H time frames when the Financial Crisis exploded on the scene). Now that the volatility has settled right back down, now may be the time to re-evaluate whether we stay with the more "noisy" 4H time frame or move to the less volatile Daily time frame

Emails

Email 1
The question I have is really about the wouldda, couldda and shouldda of trading. I've been trading for a while now with reasonable success, but I can never shake of the "regret" of missing entries or exiting a trade early. You will always have that regret.. ...No-one can pick it perfectly every time......if you get into that mindset, you will beat yourself up in a big way....Don't do it...Just do the best you can and acknowledge that it is impossible to be perfect

Email 2
I had a question:You have always said about the power of 50% fibo. As you can see on the attached picture I have send to you, we have been in a BULL market since start of may 2009 from a daily market view & we are near a 50% retrace for the last big move up. So why aren't you thinking of anywhere buying near the 50% & also trend line ? I havent said that I am not a buyer.... I am currently selling down to the 50% target level. When I get there, I will make a decision
Why are you looking to trade against the trend? Because eventually every move breaks down and I believe that we may be seeing the breakdown of the recent bull market (on the 4H charts!!!)
Is it a fundamental view? No... just experience that no market goes in one direction forever

Email 3
I see the euro in an uptrend. On the longer times frames, it still is
We have had several higher lows and higher highs since the 4 Mar 2009 test of the Oct/Nov 2008 lows. If we draw fibs from the 4 Sept low to 23 Sep high the we have tested the 50% fib 3 times. On 29 Sep and 1 Oct where it held and 2 Oct where the break below was a news reaction that was subsequently rejected. Yes
The 18 Dec 2008 high was taken out last month, then we moved down to the above mentioned 50% fib last Fri. I would consider us in an uptrend unless the 23 Sep high fails or we now have a lower high from there ie below 1.4840. I agree... the only difference is that I am trading the smaller 4H timeframes (because of the volatility of the Financial Crisis).... I don't think that the traders in the group would be prepared to wait as long as you for the next trade