MESSAGE FROM JACKO 475

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday October 28 and the market is at 1.4810

The market hit and bounced off the 50% Fib number of 1.4770 exactly at 1.30pm NY time and has now moved up marginally. Given the strength of this move, I don't think that the bounce off the 50% Fib line will be very significant. This market is heading to the Support line of 1.4700. I will be waiting for it.


Edit 4.00am NY time Market is at 1.483o Market has been as high as 1.4841 but I think this marginal move up may be capped at the 1.4850 area, before it starts to head back down to the Support line at 1.4700.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4780 As expected the move up earlier today was capped at the 1.4850 area. The market has been moving gradually down in European trade from 3.00am today. I am still expecting to see 1.4700 target hit today. There will be ample time to buy at that level. I do not want to be stabbed by a falling knife and and I will be watching for the market to show definite signs of the resumption of its upward trend before jumping in on this trade. There are two sets of news today ; the Core Durable Goods Orders at 8.30am and US New Home Sales at 10.00am

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4757 The market is slowly moving down to my target. I am confident that the 1.4700 target will be hit today. There is no need to rush into buying at that level. I do not want to be stabbed by a falling knife and and I will be watching for the market to show definite signs of the resumption of its upward trend before jumping in on this trade.

Edit 2.30pm NY time Market is at 1.4711 The US traders don't look as though they want to break 1.4700.

Edit 5.30pm NY time Market is at 1.4711 The market has come down to the Daily Support line at 1.4700. It got there much quicker than most traders expected. I am a buyer at the 1.4700- 1.4710 level. I will send SMS as the order is executed

Edit 6.30pm NY time Market has moved up marginally to the 1.4720 area...Just waiting for the next minor fall to nail this trade.

Edit 8.25pm NY time Market has dropped through 1.4700. I am watching where this is going for a short while. I am still a buyer but I am in no rush to buy at the moment This could be a fake break I am enjoying a morning Starbucks coffee and a muffin overlooking the Hong kong Harbour while I watch this market

Edit 8.35pm NY time I have just BOUGHT at 1.4695. I have a 50 pip fixed Stop Loss at 1.4645.
IF this is going to turn into a break of the Support line. I want to catch it early

Emails

Email 1
My question is why I love the method so much that I find myself applying it to every chart I can find ,trending on the daily. Why do you only trade the eur/usd? Two reasons.
Firstly, All the pairs that I would trade are paired with the USD. So they will all move basically in the same direction over the long term because the major factor in any move is the impact of any major news on the USD and,
Secondly, I like the volatility (as shown by the ATR) of the Euro. The Daily Average Trading Range (ATR) is different for each pair. GBP is wilder than Euro which is wilder than AUD The GBP is too wild and the AUD is too dull... the EUR is just right (as Goldilocks said in the nursery rhyme about the three bears)
SOOO many markets are trending. I have a really hard time NOT applying your method to every trending chart I see? How do you fight the feeling of missing out on the other pairs/markets? The Euro times 200+ standard lots on my personal account is enough excitement for me

Email 2
Welcome back to the real Jacko. Yes, the days of being adventurous and using shorter and shorter time frames and CT trades are over
I see your usual patience and simple approach to trade is showing a good example today. Yes I feel MUCH better...It is like a weight has been lifted
Euro dips near 50% fibo as predicted. It hit it on the nose at 1.4770 exactly at 1.30pm NY time, but I think that any bounce upward will be limited to less than 100 pips...Possibly a bounce to as high at 1.4850?
Looking forward for the coming profitable trend trading.Yes...lets get back to making some serious money. (Mrs Jackson was talking about putting me on bread and water...LOL)



MESSAGE FROM JACKO 474

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday October 27 and the market is at 1.4885

As stated yesterday, "we have quite some distance to get back to the 50% Fib line and the Support line... With a Daily Average Trading Range (ATR) of 120-150 pips a day, it could be much quicker than we expect".
The market then obliged and dropped as low as 1.4850, so it is easy to see that the market can quickly move towards the Fib lines and the S&R lines. .
I usually see the 50% Fib line as an initial target that the market aims for, then the big traders make a decision as to whether it will continue to the Support line or bounce off the 50% Fib line. So I would not be surprised to see this market move to the 50% Fib line of 1.4770 in the next couple of days

Edit 4.00am NY time Market is at 1.4888. The market is moving down to my longer term Daily targets of the 50% Fib at 1.4770 and the Support line at 1.4700. It may only take another 24-48 hours. Then we will get back in the longer term UP trend

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4876 I am hoping that we may see the market move to the 50% Fib level later today. We have the Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers coming out at 10.00am NY time

Edit 12.05 pm NY time Market is at 1.4812 The market came very close to the 50% Fib level of 1.4770 when it dropped as low as 1.4785. It dropped quickly on terrible Consumer Confidence numbers. As can be seen, when a market moves away from a Resistance line, it moves quite quickly to a Support level. (and vice versa) Often, it is much quicker than most traders expect. We have now seen over 75% retracement from the high of 1.5062 to the Support line at 1.4700 in only 37 hours (that's only a day and a half).
It has now bounced up to 1.4835 and should drift down to the 50% Fib number and stay there for a while. Given the stength of this move, I dont think that the bounce off the 50% Fib line will be very significant. It is heading to the Support line


For the Adventurous traders only: This market is probably heading down in the medium to long term (Daily) with an initial target of the 50% fib line, then the secondary target of the Support line. Any quick short term rebound up to the 1.5000 area for confirmation would offer a SELL at 1.4950 or higher, with a 50 pips SL that may be worth considering
WARNING Suggestions for the Adventurous traders are NOT my trades


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 473

It is 1.00am NY time Monday October 26 and the market is at 1.5035

Today is the start of the reversion to the former style of trading.

I have my charts open to 300 periods of the Daily time frame.
The Resistance line. The Resistance line is largely irrelevant at the present time as we are focussing on the entry level for the next Long trade.
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the Daily chart from 1.2460 (Mar 3) and 1.2886 (April21) and 1.2965 (April 27) and 1.4191 (Sept 3) and 1.4480 (Oct 2) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4700. (Found by dropping a line down from todays bar to the Support line, then reading the intersection off the price axis)
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.4480 (Oct 2) and 1.5060 (Oct 22) and is at 1.4770

As can be seen, we have quite some distance to get back to the 50% Fib line and the Support line. Having said that, with a Daily Average Trading Range (ATR) of 120-150 pips a day, it could be much quicker than we expect.

NOTE The next post will be at the later time of 4.00am NY time, due to the change of Daylight Saving Time in the UK. The London session will now open at 4.00am NY time until NY kicks in with its own DST on November 1

Edit 4.00am NY time Market is at 1.5033 We are now in the stage of waiting for the market to return to the Support line (or, maybe, the 50% Fib line) , at which point we will be setting up a Long trade. It will be a small wait but we need to get in at the right price.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.5025 I wasn't aware just how edgy I was getting from trading the shorter term 4H charts and the CT trades. I am instantly feeling much more relaxed now that we are back to the longer time frame. And I appreciate the 100% of emails supporting me that it is the right decision.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4901 The sell off retracement has started. But there is still a way before it gets down to my targets. But it is nice that I will soon be back in a trade.