MESSAGE FROM JACKO 423

It is 1.00am NY time Monday August 10 and the market is at 1.4211

Well, Friday was a surprise. Usually Friday afternoon sessions in NY see a flatlining of trading as the big brokers in NY either leave early to get away for the weekend or for a Friday night social event. That is the reason why I don't like to open trades on a Friday. The last two Fridays have seen unusual activity for the time session.

The release of the NFP numbers saw the usual 140+ pip move (1.4413 - 1.4272), in the first 15 minutes after the announcement, but the 120 pip move further down to 1.4153 was the surprise.

So how do we trade this now that the Resistance line turned Support line at 1.4338 has now been broken quite convincingly?? As I outlined last week, I was reasonably certain that the market was going DOWN. Even though it went down to my target and took out 1.4300 line quite easily, I am not certain that that is still the case in the medium term. The charts are still unclear as to an ongoing downward direction.
BUT in the short term I can see the market moving back up to that 1.4338 area.

NOTE It was interesting to note that Friday was the 12 month anniversary of the start of the really big moves down in the EUR/USD from 1.6037 to 1.2328 Even though the market was already moving down from 1.6037, the huge moves coincided with the start of the Beijing Olympics on August 8, 2008. Those of you who were members will remember the start of the extraordinary volatility that saw the Daily Average Trading Range (ATR) increase by some 400%, making 50 pip Stop Losses look puny.
Fortunately we hunkered down and became very selective in our trades which allowed us to post good positive returns while the rest of the industry was being decimated in their asset holdings and their profits. Hedge funds and huge investment banks were imploding, stocks were down almost 50% and property was down the same. And our trading was showing strong double digit positive returns using a maximum of only 2% risk on our trades.
How lucky were we ???!!!

Edit 3.25am NY time Market at 1.4205 It is a long way from the 4H Support Line (1.3832 on July 8...1.4006 on July29...and 1.4014 on July 30) at 1.4100. It is also a long way from the Resistance line at 1.4300. I will wait until it gets closer to one of those lines and then take the "bounce off the line" trade.

Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4192. I am still waiting for it to get closer to either my Support or Resistance line.


Edit 11.35 am NY time The market is getting close to my target of 1.4100 which is the Support line (Rounded down) from (1.3832 on July 8...1.4006 on July29...and 1.4014 on July 30) at 1.4100. Also I am hoping that we will see a turnaround in the afternoon session.. The big risk to this trade is whether we are seeing the heavy hand of China again in the pushdown on the 12 month anniversary. I am a buyer at 1.4150 or lower

Edit 12.01pm NY time I have just BOUGHT at 1.4140. I have a 100 pip Fixed SL



Emails
There ave been some excellent emails over the weekend. I will publish some of them tomorrow