MESSAGE FROM JACKO 417
It is 1.15am NY time Friday July 31 and the market is at 1.4130
The market has hit a high of 1.4137 and is moving up towards my first target price of 1.4150. I am not is a rush to close out this position so I will be watching the price action for the London session and maybe even the US morning session.
However, I will send an initial notice SMS when I have identified the area the price (probably between 1.4150 and 1.4200) that I will want to close the trade, followed by an SMS as I actually close it.
Edit 3.35am NY time Market is at 1.4114. The market as dropped back marginally but I am comfortable with this trade. I am still content to let it play out some more
Edit 7.00am NY time Market at 1.4134 The market has come back nicely and is again heading towards my initial target of 1.4150. I am moving my Stop Loss to 1.4100 to lock in a guaranteed profit. (Will send SMS in a couple of minutes)
Edit 7.45am NY time Market has hit my initial target of 1.4150 (for a high of 1.4153) but then started to drop. I don't like being in the market on a Friday and did not want to be in the situation of waiting for it to drop further and have to wait for another turnaround. I have just closed out my trade at 1.4135 for a 50 pip profit. (This trade was a hard fish to catch but we got it in the end)
Emails
Email 1
there is something i would like to ask about the way you have been trading this year . Ok
when u have started at dailyfx . u were much more active and in that period of time you were very profitable , and u have made so much money in a very little time ,Yes, forex trading was a novelty .. (especially with an audience...I had never done that before)...and I was more excited in the early days…and the market was trending nicely. Nowadays it is still great fun but it is not "new" to me anymore. But it is a lot easier to me. Also, in those days I could have bursts of high intensity trading and then if the market was slow, I would not make a trade for two weeks.
now you have changed your tactic and you trade much lesser Yes, that level of intensity would have been very difficult to maintain over a longer term. One of the first things Mark said to me was that I had to slow down and get a trading schedule that I could maintain.
( i know the market is hard these days Yes, Great Financial Crises don't happen along every year.... this is a once in a lifetime occurrence (hopefully)
and we have to be careful and pick up the best set up) Yes
lets take for example the trade of yesterday the way you took this trade remind me the way you used to trade at daily fx and it was profitable . and i do beleive even if you have reached 40 percent profit this year , if you have been trading this way ( like yesterday ) like u used to do at daily fx ,u would have reached 200 percent maybe not 40 . Oh, quite possibly...but I could also get 200% on my existing trades just by increasing my leverage by 500%...but I have a Duty of Care to Marks investors (they are all extremely happy...I have not had one withdrawal from that group. And Mark has a long queue of people wanting to invest with us)
almost always the direction u pick up is right !!! and u just sit and watch !!! , why not enter even with less lots , in the time u were in daily fx you didnt use to trade so many lots . and it is still money. Yes...It is just money. And what you are suggesting is that I trade more and use smaller lots...That is heading towards Scalping, which I never want to do. Also, I believe that I give out enough "target prices" that if a person wants to trade more aggressively they can, simply by trading up and down to my target points. Some members of the group are already doing that and achieving excellent results
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 416
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday July 30 and the market is at 1.4050
The market has moved much further than I expected but I am still in the trade. I expected that the market would bounce up from 1.4100 (so I saw 1.4085as a good buy price). However, the market bounced from lower down. Anyway, I am still in the trade and looking to exit for a profit hopefully around 1.4150+
As I said yesterday, I think there will be still more opportunities in the next couple of days to get some SELL positions from higher up (above 1.4200 ?) and some opportunities to even BUY on the way up to those points.
Edit 3.05am NY time Market is at 1.4085 I am letting the trade play itself out.
Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4055 I am continuing to let this trade play itself out
Edit 11.40am NY time Market is at 1.4070 I am still letting this trade play itself out
Emails
Email 1
I don't quite understand the rationale behind the current trade (no intention to challenge you here, just trying to understand). I believe that this market is going down. I have believed that for a while because firstly, it never challenged the previous June 2 high of 1.4338 and secondly, the longer it stayed in the range, the more likely it was going to drop (because there was insufficient momentum or buying interest to keep it going up)
Your early comments (+ published answer to the email) all said you were a seller, yet you chose to buy. My first preference was to be a SELLER, but I missed the opportunity to sell on Tuesday at 1.4270 (I was answering that damn email.....easily, the most expensive email I have ever written).
However the market was also still in a Range of 1.4150- 1.4300.
I wasn't prepared to risk SELLING at close to the bottom of the range, so I took the aggressive option of BUYING at what I thought was close to the bottom of the range . Thats why I was a buyer at 1.4100 or lower.
Would you mind explaning to me the reasons for your move? I thought that the market might go through 1.4100 and I bought at what I thought was a good price. I was surprised when it went as low as it did later in the US session. Having said that, I would have been stunned if it speared through the 1.4100 AND 1.4000 round numbers in one session on no news. So I was reasonably sure that 1.4000 would hold
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 415
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 29 and the market is at 1.4174
The market been as low as 1.4130 and again at 1.4138 and has visited close to the Support line around 1.4100. It has now moved back up to its current price and I am looking for a position to countertrend trade this again like the last couple of successful trades which have scored us some good pips with minimal risk. However, I am looking to sell from up closer to the Resistance line area at above 1.4250.
Edit 3.10 am NY time Market is at 1.4154. I am out of the office at the moment but have been watching the prices in downtown Central HK. I am watching this market bouncing around after spiking down to the Support level. I may consider a buy trade later in the day
Edit 7.50am NY time Market is at 1.4100 The market has dropped all the way down to its Support line at 1.4100. For me, this market has now turned. Even though it hasn't broken the Support line (yet) I would be prepared to call the bull as finished for the next few weeks.
From a technical point, it can be said that the market has turned because it did not break the previous 1.4338 high.
From a fundamental point, yesterdays meeting between China and the US agreed that the strong US Dollar was a good thing. As I said some days ago, China is absolutely desperate to maintain a strong USD so that its (China's) manufacturing does not collapse.
The US is on track for a 10% unemployment rate..... If China had a 10% unemplyment rate there would be 140 MILLION unemployed...with no social security system....China would NEVER risk the social disharmony of this as it would be a risk to the single political party system.
Having said that, I think there will be still more opportunities in the next couple of days to get some shorts positions from higher up (above 1.4200) and some opportunities to even buy on the way up to those points.
Edit 9.00am NY time Market at 1.4100.. The market is bouncing off the long term Support line at around 1.4100. I would prefer to sell from a higher point (it is too low to go short here) so I am going to aggressively trade it back up to the higher levels where I can Sell it again. I am BUYER at 1.4100 or lower. The initial notice SMS has just been sent
Edit 9.40am NY time Market has dropped to 1.4084. It has dropped futher than I thought it would. This is stronger than I thought. I have put my BUY on hold for a little while
Edit 10.00am NY time I have just bought at 1.4085 I have a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss. I apologise for the SMS . I accidentally re-sent the previous earlier SMS. It was a bit frantic here
It took a couple of minutes to see what I had done and then send the new SMS
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4036 This trade has not gone as I expected. However, I will continue to let it play itself out.
Edit 5.10pm NY time Market at 1.4045 The market has moved much further than I expected but I am still in the trade. I expected that the market would bounce up from 1.4100 (so I saw 1.4085as a good buy price). However, the market bounced from lower down. Anyway, I am still in the trade and looking to exit for a profit hopefully around 1.4150
Emails
Email 1
I'm interested why you keep focusing on EUR weakness. Because I can see the market turning from the move up that lasted until July 20
Looking at the H1 since the beginning of July I can see a pretty clear EUR positive market. What are you seeing that I do not see? I can see a market struggling to maintain an upward movement/momentum
For this week I'm noticing support levels moving up, and the spikes also keep moving upwards = still EUR positive. I don't think so...look at your 4H chart
For this week I'm placing a support area around 4230, which is higher than it was last week. So far, the resistnace of 4300 seems to keep holding up, although I was sure it would be broken this morning, which it didn't. It did ...but only by 2 pips...and that is only because the market is ranging more widely
You say you're looking for a new direction. What are you looking for? I'm looking at retracements for buying opportunities, and would be comfortable buying at 4200 or below, because selling seems riskier in the current EUR bull trend. I disagree...I am looking for retracements to SELL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 414
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday July 28 and the market is at 1.4253
The market has peaked at 1.4262 and my Shorts at 1.4260 have been stopped out at Break Even. No profit, but no loss either. But I will be soooo peeved if I am stopped out by just two pips....
In reviewing the trade, I should have closed my trade at 12.25 pm yesterday when I moved the SL to Break Even. That was the time I felt the strongest urge to close. (The market was changing direction as it often does at US session lunchtime. The market also often changes direction just prior to London open and and just prior to US open) The reason I didn't close it was that the trade was only 40 pips in profit and I was looking for a longer and more sustained fall...which did not happen. Not an excuse...just an explanation for the trade. Move on to the next opportunity.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4275 The Euro has moved back towards the Resistance levels of 1.4300 (trend line)and 1.4334 (previous high from June 2) reaching as high as 1.4287. The market is not showing as much weakness as previously so I am sitting on the sidelines again for a while and looking for a clearer direction The news event for today is at 10.00am NY time when the Conference Board releases its Consumer Cofindence numbers (not a real market mover). The more important news are the speeches by Mr Geithner at the conclusion of the US-China talks at 4.45pm and 5.20pm NY time
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4222. I was so engrossed in answering a really interesting email from a member that I let the market get away from me at 1.4275. The market has now moved too far to take another counter trend trade.
A missed opportunity... ...But another opportunity will appear very soon...I love trading !
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4152. The missed opportunity would have been an excellent countertrend trade.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 413
It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 27 and the market is at 1.4234
We did well again on Fridays trade. We banked another 38 pips profit. (Mrs Jackson was smiling at me all weekend with love in her eyes...LOL).
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4290 (July 23) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4300
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3832 (July 9) and 1.3910 (July 14) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4100.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) and is at 1.3650
The market is still sitting in the 1.3800 to 1.4250 range that it has been in since May 21, some 70 days ago, but is currently at the top of the range.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4260 The market is sitting at the highs of this range and looking at the 1.4338 high of June 2 as a potential Resistance target. The market is certainly looking as though it wants to try to break up there. I am sitting on the sidelines for a little longer before I decide my next move.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4287 The market has been knocking on the door of 1.4300 Resistance for an hour and it has been holding....
On the news front, there is the New Home Sales at 10.00am NY time...but more importantly, today is the start of US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue. This has the potential to cause a major move in the USD and all USD pairings. I believe that those discussions may lead to a strengthening of the USD (and drop in the Euro) over the short term. I am looking for a position to go short on another counter trend trade from the Resistance area of 1.4300
Edit 8.35am NY time Market at 1.4260 I am looking to SELL from the Resistance area of 1.4300. The price has started to fall back so I am prepared to Sell at 1.4270 or higher The initial notice SMS is just being sent
Edit 9.15am NY time Market at 1.4260 I have just SOLD at 1.4260. Market was slipping and I wanted to get filled before it dropped any further. (I should have taken the 1.4270's) I have a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss
Edit 12.25pm NY time Market at 1.4217 The market has moved in my profitable direction to a low of 1.4202 and is currently 43 pips in profit. I am prepared to stay in this trade but I am looking to reduce my risk so I am moving my SL to Break Even at 1.4260
Edit 5.00pm NY time Market at 1.4236 The market is wandering around but I am hopeful that Asian trading will take it below 1.4200. I will be targeting 1.4150 (just above the Support line) area for closure.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 412
It is 1.00am NY time Friday July 24 and the market is at 1.4157
We did well on yesterdays trade. We banked 125 pips profit in 5 hours. (Mrs Jackson is smiling at me with love in her eyes...LOL).
The market has cracked and fallen below the 100 pip range (from 1.4170 to 1.4270) that it had been in for the previous 75 hours. I expect that it will move back into that range before falling again.
Even though it is a Friday, I am looking to sell again today. hopefully around the 1.4200-1.4250 mark.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4200 As expected the market has retraced from the 1.4140 mark back up to inside the 1.4200- 1.4250 trading range. Those of you in the Asian session who traded it on the way up got some nice easy pips. I am looking for a higher entry (possibly around 1.4250) to SELL again
Edit 3.40am NY time Market at 1.4204 I am a SELLER at 1.4250. I have just placed a limit SELL order on Stop at 1.4250. I am now waiting for the market to hopefully reach it. I have a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss (I am just about to send SMSes)Edit 7.25am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4250. I have a Fixed 100 pip Stop Loss. I will now let the trade play itself out
I will be back at 12.15pm NY time
Edit 12.15am NY time Market at 1.4214 Because it is a Friday, I am about to close my position. I will SMS as I close it I am just waiting for a small drop to squeeze some extra pips
Edit 12.25pm NY time Closed at 1.4212 for a 38 pip profit (SMS going out now) Have a nice weekend
Emails
Email 1
Could you please explain why you felt that the market was ready to turn around for you take the countertrend trade that you made today? I am not bullish on this market for the longer term (next couple of weeks). I think that the USD is not as bad as people are saying....The US is in trouble but it is working hard to get itself out of it
1.4290 is only 20 pips from 1.4270. Did price breaking the previous high (1.4276) from a couple of days ago factor into your decision? Yes, It is moving slightly beyond its highs and lows as the bars are widening, so I was comfortable selling just above the previous high and would have been comfortable buying below the previous low (but was too slow to close there) . The market is still ranging but moving towards a break down soon
How did you know there would be sustained momentum to the sell side? The longer the ranging period goes on , the more likely it will drop...because there is no strength to maintain the move up
Email 2
What's the reason you decided to close at 1.4140? The market had given me 125 in 5 hours...no need to get greedy...Also I am looking for another SELL from a higher point later
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 411
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday July 23 and the market is at 1.4238
As stated yesterday, this is a very quick and dangerous market at the present time and the market is not giving any clear indicators any sustained direction
Also, to keep it in perspective the market is only moving approx 100 pips from high to low. ( The big move yesterday from 1.4155 to 1.4256 was again only 100 pips A trader would have to have been very good to pick that top and bottom....there was no reason to call those numbers)
At the current levels (1.4240+) I am looking to counter trend trade this market (but at higher levels) as I believe there is much more downside than upside. (If that sounds confusing, it is because this market is bullish above 1.4180...but I have doubts as to its strength).
Edit 3.05am NY time Market at 1.4245 This market is too erratic at the present time. I am looking for a clearer opportunity to sell at a high price or to buy at a low price. I am not keen to buy or sell and then have the market spike me out.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4216 The market has been in a tight 100 pip range from 1.4170 to 1.4270 for the last 75 hours. And if you exclude the quick spikes, most of that time has been spent in the 70 pip range from 1.4180 to 1.4250. We are currently dead in the middle of those ranges.
I am looking for an extreme of the range with a distinct preference for a (countertrend) SELL as I believe that the bull is losing its strength. The longer we stay in the range, the more likely that the market will fall out the bottom
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4265 The market has peaked at 1.4290 and is falling I am a SELLER at 1.4250 or higher. The initial notice SMS has just been sent. I am looking for the best position to sell.
Edit 12.23pm NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4265. I am using a 100 pip fixed Stop Loss
(SMSes have just been sent)
Edit 5.00pm NY time I have just closed my trades at 1.4140 for a quick 125 pip profit. (SMSes have just been sent)
Emails
Email 1
I've noticed a lot of debate re where the market is headed and and felt I had to say something. People are asking 'long or short?', and calling the price action indecisive Yes
I found it more profitable to ask: 'on what price can the market agree?' The market very decidedly liked 1.41 last week and 1.42 this week. I've therefore found it quite profitable to make these my target and join any move headed back towards these levels. When viewed this way, ranging markets can be v easy money too. Very clever...simple...But very clever. Thanks
Email 2
Just currious as to why we did not take a buy trade shortly after the counter trend failed on us. Im just looking and it broke a very long term resistance (from july last year) should that not have been a good indication to go bullish??? I was looking at the 1.4150 mark to see if that was hit...If so, I was going to send an SMS that we go long at 1.4150 or lower...BUT i never got there...it only went to 1.4155
Email 3
so Im learning the calendar at Forex Factory and trying to figure out what to look for. I look mostly at the red boxes for the US...
What type of news do you watch for/like to see? The news that causes the biggest moves are FOMC announcements and Non Farm Payroll announcements
And what type of news tell you to enter the market or stay away from the market? You should not enter the market near these announcements
I also dont understand the terminology and how to find what is going on so this is what todays FOMC says "More hawkish than expected = Good for currency" Hmmm...the problem with trying to use these fundamentals is that you will see any situations where the market moves in the opposite diraction to the fundamental logic....Often caused by "buy the rumour, sell the news"
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 410
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 22 and the market is at 1.4191
This tight ranging market...with short infrquent spurts is starting to get irritating...LOL.
After rising to as high as 1.4276, the market has now fallen back below my Stop out point of the previous trade...and now gone all the way back to the 1.4180 Support line again. However, to keep it in perspective the market has only moved approx 100 pips from high to low. (A trader would have to have been good to get out at 1.4276....there was no reason to call that number as a top)
At these levels I am looking to go long, but in the longer term, I am looking to counter trend trade this market as I believe there is much more downside than upside. (If that sounds confusing, it is because this market is bullish above 1.4180...but I have doubts as to its strength).
Edit 3.10 am NY time Market at 1.4185 I am just watching this market at the present time for some clear direction. It is a very indecisive market at the moment.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4205 Good morning America.... The good news is you haven't missed any action overnight. The market has moved a grand total of 48 pips (1.4215 - 1.4167) in the last 12 hours. I am still looking for some clear direction coming out of this market
Edit 12.20pm NY time Market at 1.4217 After a quick drop to as low as 1.4154, the market has charged straight back up to its favoured area of around 1.4200. This is a very quick and dangerous market at the present time and the market is not giving any clear indicators any sustained direction
Emails
Email 1
I re-read your past couple of blog posts, but am unable to follow your rationale for using such a tight SL setting. It was a counter trend trade and I was only 51% certain that it might be just a brief flush out of the shorts
The market has been an elevator ride for a while and there seems no inidcation that volatility is going to decrease - would you agree? Usually, you say high volatility requires wide SL settings, right? Yes, but I was trading against the trend and I was not keen on risking 100 pips on it...I thought the brief flush out would be limited to 1.4150...I was wrong by 25 pips
I had set my SL a little above 4300 figuring this would only get hit if 4200 really is a new support area, and also am looking at the longer time frames and don't see a Dollar bull trend at all, just a bunch of noise A better strategy than mine (in hindsight)
If anything, it looks more EUR bullish. I am under the understanding that you are currently doing some kind of semi-scalping, is that correct? Hmmm...I think that the Euro bull is about to be castrated....Never underestimate the importance of a strong USD to the biggest player in the market (China).... China is absolutely desperate to keep the USD strong to allow the chinese economy to continue to power along
I should have followed you and gotten out at 4190 as well. Now I am "hoping". If you kept your SL at 1.4300, you are safe
Arrrgh, I hate being in that place! LOL ...it is a dark and lonely place
4200 looks like it's becoming a support zone soon. What do you think? Perhaps....I also think that we will see 1.4100 and maybe even 1.4000 again
Email 2
the main problem I am facing is in situations like yesterday/today, when a trend line has been broken and I have to decide if I should switch from selling to buying (I had the same problem just before joining the group when price was breaking the support line week commencing 15th June). What is your advice on how to handle trend reversals? Do I seat and wait? I usually wait for the break, then the return to line for "confirmation...then follow the direction. But this market in the last month or two is just such a tight range followed by a quick spurt..then another tight range , makes it a bit different
I feel like we are snipers who have been given and machine gun that can fire thousands of rounds a minute but we have to be patient and stop firing all over the place to get into quality trades. Oh yes...the bigggest killer of traders is overtrading and over leveraging So I look at the chart much less than I used to and it makes things easier. Yes, and that means it also becomes more sustainable over the longer term...this is a business for the rest of your life if that is what you want (I certainly do because I love trading). It is not something to do at the exclusion of everything else for a short period.... Take a look at the market lately...You couldn't make more trades and make much more money because the market is so tight. We have to wait it out... So a balance in life helps us wait out these tougher periods
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 409
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday July 21 and the market is at 1.4209
I am continuing to let my SELL trade play itself out. I am still short from 1.4228 in a countertrend trade with a very tight SL at 1.4250. My first target is still 1.4180 at which time I will have another look at it to see if the price action is suggesting the lower target of around 1.4100. (I am feeling comfortable with the target of around 1.4100)
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4190 The market is gradually moving south towards the 1.4180 Resistance line. I have two choices: close out at around 1.4180 OR hold on the expectation that London may send it through 1.4180 and down into a more profitable area for my trade. Of course, there is also the third possibility that it will bounce up and take out my SL at 1.4250.
I am holding for the drop to through 1.4180 into a more profitable area
Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.4220 In hindsight, I took the wrong option today. I should have closed out at around 1.4180 because the market dropped to 1.4182 and has now bounced back to the current level. Anyway....I am still letting the trade play itself out.
Edit 9.08am NY time My countertrend trade has just been stopped out for a small 22 pip loss. I am going to go for a walk and clear the head.
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4194 After rising to as high as 1.4276, the market has now fallen back below my Stop out point of the previous trade. No clear trade opportunity is available at the present time so I intend to watch this market for the moment
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 408
It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 20 and the market is at 1.4157
Fridays trade gave us a small 25 pip profit. And in hindsight, closing out when I did was a reasonable result. It was certainly a better result than staying in for later in the day on Friday
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4180 (July 19) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4180
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3832 (July 9) and 1.3910 (July 14) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3950.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) and is at 1.3650
The market is still sitting in the 1.3800 to 1.4250 range that it has been in since May 21, some 60 days ago.
The question is whether today is the day that it attempts to break above the 1.4180 Resistance line and go above the 1.4250 area in an attempt to break clear of the range OR whether we are at the top of the range and the market starts to fall back to the Support line at 1.3950.
The Asian trading session is not a very reliable indicator of the progress of the Euro, especially on a Monday when Asian trading is first out of the blocks. I will wait to see what London is going to do
Edit 6.10am NY time. Market at 1.4230. (I apologise for no 3.00am blog entry but I had some friends drop in unexpectedly and stay for the last 4 hours). The European session has blown through the Resistance line at 1.4180 discussed above and has been as high as 1.4247. The market has moved to an UPWARD bias. We may have an opportunity to buy, if and when the market comes back to the broken Resistance line at 1.4180 for confirmation. The next Resistance level is the old 1.4338 from June 2.
Edit 8.02am NY time The market has moved up in London. I am taking an aggressive countertrend trade at 1.4225 or higher. It have taken the trade because the market has not broken the 1.4250 mark and I believe it will now fall, possibly to 1.4180 initially and then maybe as low as 1.4100. Note that there is no real news event today.
Edit 8.06 am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4228 I have a tight SL at 1.4250. This was a quick decision trade (I really don't like trading against the trend, but this was a trade I was prepared to take on the countertrend)
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4220 I am continuing to let this trade play itself out. I am still short from 1.4228 in a countertrend trade with a very tight SL at 1.4250
Emails
Email 1
I am very surprised to receive SMS from you saying that you are taking the countertrend trading. This trade was not a recommendation....It is just a trade I was prepared to take. And I show my trades
Well, I do respect whatever you do, but I would like to know why you quickly decided to take the countertrend trade all of sudden. It had not broken 1.4250 and I could see no good reason for the rise in Asian and London trading
Any reason to take it in technically No break of 1.4250
and fundamentally? No reason for the rise in Asian and London trading
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 407
It is 1.15am NY time Friday July 17 and the market is at 1.4117
This market is going nowhere....and getting there is no fun. I will be closing my trade later today, because I don't like to be exposed to a position over a weekend when anything can happen. (It is also a time for you to spend some quality time with your partner/family over the weekend without worrying about what the market is doing...as you probably do every day that the market is open...LOL)
I will be looking for a good opportunity to close out my positions later today hopefully at a better price than the current price of 1.4117. I have no target in mind at the moment simply because the market is so listless and directionless so it is just a matter of watching it and trying to get a better price...hopefully sub 1.4100 and closer to the 1.4050 area reached yesterday.
I will SMS as we are getting near to a close out price and then again when I actually close out.
Edit 3.30am NY time Market at 1.4090 The market has dropped marginally to 1.4090. It is nothing to get excited about, but it is at least heading in the right direction. I will be watching for the action around the opening of NY session. Hopefully London will take this down and NY might continue the push down
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4090 The market has not gone anywhere in the last 4.5 hours. As stated above, I will be closing my trade hopefully under 1.4100 and closer to the 1.4050 area reached yesterday. I will be sending the initial SMS out soon and I will SMS as I actually close the trade
Edit 9.10am NY time Market at 1.4105 Market was moving up quickly after the Housing Starts numbers were digested by the market and plateau'd at just above 1.4100. I wasn't prepared to risk all the pips by letting the market potentially move back to the BE point so I closed at 1.4105. Although it was a profitable trade, it was a disappointing result. A profit of only 25 pips
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 406
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday July 16 and the market is at 1.4073
As expected, the FOMC minutes was the peak of the rise, and the market has fallen since the news was released. My SELL at 1.4130 from yesterday is looking good. I will feel much better if it now heads further down. I am now letting the trade play itself out. If/and when the market gets to 1.4000, I will be moving my Stop Loss to Break Even.
Edit 3.50am NY time Have been caught in a major Hong Kong traffic snarl and have just arrived home to find the market back at 1.4090 after hitting a low of 1.4055. I am continuing to let the trade play itself out with the 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss at 1.4230
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4127 The market has moved up to my entry price. I was considering closing the trade, but then decided that I was still comfortable with my reasons for entering the trade yesterday. I have therefore decided to maintain my trade position. The major news event today is the TIC report at 9.00am which is the net foreign purchases of US long term securities.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4118 The market has retraced back down below the open but only marginally. I am still content to let this trade play itself out.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 405
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 15 and the market is at 1.3982
The Asian session continued the moribound state of the market that has been in play all week. The Asian session had a total range of only 25 pips over 8 hours. However, the market is showing signs of moving closer to my target later today.
One of the most significant piece of news that has not received a lot of coverage is the fact that China's Forex reserves rose to more than $2 Trillion and that their reserves rose by a monthly record of $158 billion in Q2, and that the last 12 months saw the level of these assets rise 17.8%.
If there was any doubt that China now has the power to totally control the worlds financial markets and the direction of the US dollar, those figures quickly dispel the doubts.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4055 The market has, as expected, continued to move up towards the Resistance line, driven by the expectations surrounding the FOMC minutes which will be a focal point for today's news. Those of you who went long for the ride up have had a rocky road but you are still in and you are in profit.
Edit 8.05am NY time Market at 1.4080 The market is continuing to grind up towards my target area of 1.4100-1.4150. I expect the target to be hit later today. I will be looking to minimize my risk and will sell as it turns back down. This is a very slow moving market this week so there is no urgency to get into a position. There should be ample time and opportunities to get set.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4110 The market has continued to move up into the lower area of my target area. I want to be sure that this market is not going to break through the Resistance line at 1.4140 on release of FOMC minutes. I am waiting to see signs of a peak (preferably a spike) and reversal.
Edit 1.15pm NY time Market at 1.4102 Market has lost some of its strength. I am waiting to see the response to the FOMC minutes, but I am preparing to trigger the trade. Initial notice SMS was sent 15 minutes ago.
Edit 2.08 NY time I have just SOLD at 1.4130. I have a 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss
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