MESSAGE FROM JACKO 419
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday August 4 and the market is at 1.4380
The market hit a high of 1.444 yesterday so the market has broken out of the 1.3850 - 1.4300 range it has been in for over two months. The Resistance line of 1.4338 will now become a Support line. I will be keen to go long at around the Round number of 1.4300 but will be watching to see if I can get a slightly better price.
Some of the more adventurous traders are trading this down to the 1.4338 level
Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.4397 Market is looking a bit dull. London does not look as though they are motivated for any big moves. The US Pending Home Sales figures at 10.00am is the only real news today. Still waiting for a retracement back to 1.4300 before I get excited.
Some of the more adventurous traders are trading this down to the 1.4338 level
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4376 Market is slowly moving downwards... hopefully to my target area of 1.4300 where I will be keen to buy.
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4400 This mornings session in NY has been excruciatingly dull. Even with the US House Sales news coming in much better than expected (actual 3.6% vs expected 0.6%), the market has barely moved 60 pips all morning
Emails
Email 1
I have a question about your reasoning of holding this last trade (Fridays trade). My reasoning was that since it was in the red so long and coming close to our SL that if it got back to BE i would close because it didnt show much promise from the get go. Hmmm..no, I am a little more patient than that..the fact that it reversed and was heading back to BE made me more confident because it was moving in "my direction"
But i didnt act on my reasoning and decided to follow your call but i would like to know your reason behind not closing it once it got back to around BE, since it went against us so much. All in all at the end of the trade i made 56 pips (kudos) good work
BUT i would like you to teach me how to fish and the reason behind holding it. First lesson is NEVER panic ..your SL was in place....your SL should not be an insane amount of your capital (2% is good)...you should assume that it is already lost...and then just let the trade play itself out
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 418
It is 1.20am NY time Monday August 3 and the market is at 1.4241
The month of July netted us a total of 416 pips for the month. Not bad, but more importantly we are getting a better grip on this ranging market.
We finally had a nice 50 pip win on Friday morning after trying to land that fish for three days. The market then continued to move up in the Friday US session. The market has today moved very close to the previous high of 1.4338 on June 2. I will be watching this as it gets closer to that price
Edit 3.20am NY time The market is at 1.4226.
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4308 (August 2 ) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4300. The previous Resistance point of 1.4338 is becoming critical in importance
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.4006 (July 29) and 1.4014 (July 30) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4050.
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.4006 (July 29) to 1.4308 (August 2) and is at 1.4157
Edit 8.00am NY time The market is at 1.4315 The market is at a critical level. It is now at the very top of the 1.3850 - 1.4300 range that it has been stuck in on the 4H charts dating back to late May/ early June. The question to be answered to day is whether today is the day that it finally breaks out of the range that it has been stuck in, or will it fall back down into the range again. I am watching to see which way I wish to trade this. The resistance level of the previous 1.4338 high is critical. This has been building up pressure for over two months and could go either way.
Edit 8.40am NY time Market is at 1.4312 I am watching to see how the market reacts to the 1.4338 level. The pressure to break out of this range has been building up but I am not sure that it has the fundamentals to support it. I t could easily collapse back into the range again. I am not making a decision until the market shows me which is the correct answer. I am not jumping into a 50/50 gamble
Edit 12.07pm NY time Market at1.4425 The Euro has broken out above the range and has moved upwards. I will be looking for a retracement, then getting in. It is likely that it will come back and touch the broken Resistance line turned Support within the next 24-48 hours for confirmation.
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