It is 1.05am NY time Tuesday July 14 and the market is at 1.3980
As stated yesterday, I am still waiting for the market to move up higher to 1.4100- 1.4150 so that I can sell at a high price and ride the down movement to the 50% fib target of around 1.3650. Those of you who went long for the ride up have had a rocky road but you are still in and you are in profit.
A little note....There was an error number in my Support Line yesterday that should not have been there. It was the 1.3827 (June 23) which belonged to last weeks trend line that has now been superceded.
Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.3984 Market is tightly rangebound but is looking to move up (hopefully) to my target
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.4002 The market has been in a tight 50 pip range (from 1.3960 to 1.4010) for the last 10 hours..... boring.
I am hoping and expecting the US Retail Sales numbers due out at 8.30am to at least give this market a smack around the head
Edit 9.10am NY time Better than expected figures has lifted the USD (sent the Euro down), but only back to the bottom of the 1.3960-1.4010 range. This is a tight range. Something has to break soon.
Emails
Email 1
My question is about reading the charts to know where to put my 50% Fib Retracement inbetween the ebb and flow. I'm using the 4 hour as you've stated and then the daily.
I was taking my 50% Fib Retracement from the same 4 hour support line you sight in Message 398 (1.2884, April 22 as the low, June 3 High of 1.4338 = 50% Fib at 1.3608) yes
In Message 399 you noted a Retracement from May 17 (Low of 1.3422) and June 3 (High of 1.4338) with 1.3880 as the 50% Fib. yes
Why not off of the 4 hour going back to April 22nd? Because the 1.3880 was the first target and 1.3608 is the second target Obviously, 1.3880 has been the bouncing point for the last week, and it's the right number. Yes, but it has now been broken when the market moved to 1.3832 on July 8, so the next target is 1.3650
But what's the method that tells you to take it off of May 17 and NOT from the far bottom left corner of the screen at April 22 - 1.2884 to make the Fib Retracement at 1.3608? Because there are always multiple targets (usually only 2 or 3) from the highs and the lows within that period
Email 2
I do not understand how you determine when is your 50fib line? You mentioned looking at may 17 and jun 3 then next you looked at apr 28 to jun 3. How do you exactly know when to look for your start and end point for arriving at these 2 fib levels? Look for the major turning points and measure your 50% fibs from the highs and lows...Then put them in cascading order of price (there will usually be no more than 2 or 3 over a 300 periond timeframe). Then you can see the progressive targets
Email 3
I would like to get your views on inflation. There are basically 2 schools of thought; some say that the rapid money printing will flood the market with so much liquidity it is gonna devalue the currency and as a result lead to hyperinflation, another believed that the money like tarp etc. has not flowed to the real economy as the banks that has it are not lending it out, thus the flood of liquidity has no effect on inflation.What do you think? This is a real interesting area...we have been discussing it ourselves here the last week with the brokers (that descended on my home like a plague of locusts). What was really interesting is the amount of money that the Govt has committed to paying.... but has not paid. When you add this to the repayments by the Banks, you can see that there was a lot of talk about money being used to shore up the economy, but (relatively) little has been spent compared to what they said they would spend.... I think that the REALLY big numbers was just a "show of force" to let everyone know that the funds available to fight the crisis was virtually unlimited
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 403
It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 13 and the market is at 1.3917
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4200 (July 2) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4150
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3827 (June 23) and 1.3832 (July 9) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3875.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880 which has been quite solid, though I believe is now finished. The next 50% Fib of note is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at 1.3650
As you know, I have been bearish for some weeks, because I saw 1.4338 as the high. I am still very bearish but I am looking for a a much better SELL price than the current price. I will be a seller up at around 1.4100. I am hoping for one more push up towards the Resistance Line so that I can SELL at between 1.4150-1.4100 so that I can ride it down when it breaks the Support line (hopefully) on its way to the long term target of the 50% Fib target of 1.3650
Edit 4.00am NY time Market at 1.3950 Market is moving up but it has some way to go before it gets into my SELL target area of 1.4100- 1.4150
Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.3980 Market has been as high as 1.3991 in European trading. Those of you who are riding it up to my target are doing well.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3978 The market is moving back and forth within the 1.3900 and 1.4000 mark with no real trade opportunities of size. I am still waiting for a SELL opportunity at a higher level
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 402
It is 1.00am NY time Friday July 10 and the market is at 1.3980
The market moved up sustantially more than I expected yesterday. After bouncing up from the 1.3832 level, I fully expected that the 1.4000 would be sufficient barrier to kill off any further rise. I was seriously wwwrong.
After a near death experience at 1.4071, the market has since retraced back to our entry price. One benefit is that the move to a 100 pip FIXED SL has been beneficial so far. (A 100 pip TSL would have been stopped out). But this trade is not yet over, so the 100 pip SL could still be triggered for a bigger loss than would have occurred with the 100 pip TSL.
Edit 3.25am NY time Market at 1.3912 The market is now moving in our profitable direction. Because it is a Friday, and I don't want to be holding the trade over the weekend, I will be closing the trade manually. I am not sure where I will close it yet as I am not sure that the US session will try to reverse the London push down. It may be that the longer we hold, the lower it will go. I will SMS when I am closing (I am considering 1.3800 or hopefully even 1.3750)
Edit 7.55am NY time Market at 1.3915 In European trading the market has only reached a low of 1.3880 (the old 50% Fib line again) and has moved back up marginally.I am still waiting to see if NY is going to take it down (which I think it will). I think the longer we hold, the lower it will go.
Edit 9.45am NY time Market was showing signs of an upward move. Rather than stay in and wait for the market to turn back down, I decided that because it was Friday, that I would close the trade early. I closed at 1.3920 for a 70 pip profit.
Emails
Email 1
Yesterday, you were expecting a 100 pip retracement back to around 1.4000, but the market was weak to get up to that level. Hmmmm....yes but it did get there about an hour ago
Well, what I would like to know is, why you were expecting a 100 pip retracement after you closed your trade. Because the market is ranging and will go up and down. But each UP move will be a little less than the previous ones ....and each down move will be a little deeper than the previous ones (because the trend is down)
I think I am not getting the characteristics of EUR/USD market. Don't be confused by thinking that the market is complex and difficult ....It is not complex and difficult at all....most novices think that there is a great secret to the market that once they discover what it is, they will be 100% correct in all their trades. The BIG secret is...there is no secret .
What can I do to understand more about EUR/USD market? Any suggestions? Think of the market as a set of waves that ebb and flow in the direction of the trend. The trend is best determined by looking at 300 x 4H bars and looking at the dominant line (either Support or Resistance). When that line is broken, then MOST times it will mean a change in the trend. But the market never goes straight up or straight down..It ebbs and flows...but it will ebb and flow in the direction of the trend
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 401
It is 1.20am NY time Thursday July 9 and the market is at 1.3906
The market has not been very co-operative in getting up higher and has managed to only get as high as 1.3937.
As stated yesterday, when the market was at 1.3850, the market was looking weak and that a correction was likely. That correction has been taking place since that time but only by around 50 pips. The market is a bit lack lustre at the moment due to the lack of news items this week and is "wandering" around looking for direction.
We wait to see what London will offer us.
Edit 3.05am NY time Market at 1.3919 The late Asian trade had a bit of a rush up to 1.3941 but London is pulling it back now. Hmmm... A directionless market at the moment. I am still waiting for another good SELL position
Edit 6.10am NY time Market at 1.3975 I am tempted to sell here but I want to wait until we get closer to NY opening. If the market is at this level (or higher) at 7.45am NY time I will be selling it at around that price
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3983 I have just sent a SMS some 10 minutes ago saying that I am looking at a higher sell price. (There has been a quick run in the last 15 minutes,,,I am concerned about the Unemployment numbers due out at 8.30am). I am a SELLER above 1.3990. I will SMS as I place my order.
Edit 8.15am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3990. I have a FIXED 100 pip Stop Loss
Edit 12.20pm NY time Market at 1.4029. I am letting the trade play itself out. My SL is still at 1.4090
Emails
Email 1
How do you know the market has turned? Look at 4H chart...the high of 1.4338 has not even come close to being challenged
Upon what time frame do you make this determination? How did you come to that conclusion? Have a look at the Support line (outlined in the blog) that has been broken...that is a good hint. When a 4H line is broken, it means that the market is serious
I think this is a critical point as we are long term traders and I'm making sure I appreciate the nature of the 'trend'. The break of a 4H line is serious...the break of a Daily line (in this current erratic market) is almost too late. And the breaks of the 1H will drive you nuts
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 400
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 8 and the market is at 1.3916
We closed yesterdays short from 1.4035 at 1.3905 for a 130 pip profit.
I am now looking for an opportunity to get back in at a higher price. I am hoping that Europe tries to retrace some of fall in yesterdays US session. Because I believe that the market is falling (in the medium term), any price above my exit at 1.3905 is a bonus. However, I am looking for a 100 pip retracement back to around the 1.4000 area (or just a little lower).
Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.3900 Market has dropped as low as 1.3860 but has rebounded back up to 1.3900. I will be waiting to SELL again but at a price closer to 1.4000. I may be waiting a little while....
Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.3904 The market has been more subdued in European trading than I expected. It has bounced only as high as 1.3937. I will be watching the US session with the hope and intention of selling again on a small retracement at around the 1.4000 area.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3850 Hmm....market looking weak. But it is too low to be selling at these levels. The potential for a correction back up is too high.
Emails I again apologize for the delay in responding to some emails. Our broker friends have decided that the Jackson residence is a more interesting place to stay than their hotel. But I have answered some emails today and will answer all emails soon.
Email 1
First of all, I would like to know why you are a definite seller this week. Beside the broken support line, is there any fundamental issue that backs up this idea? Hmmm...this was interesting and it was on my mind regarding a weakening of the Euro
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article6597813.ece
Second, I would like to know what makes you to wait for the retracement around 4050. Is it Fibonacci 50%? or something else? No, it was because when a strong support / resistance line is broken, the market will return to touch the line for "confirmation" then it falls harder..I was just waiting for that
Email 2
This was sent to me by a couple of traders who saw my posts in the beginning of this week. (We are doing very well compared to these guys...but our brokers had already been telling us that)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEOvYT4LTxJI
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 399
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday July 7 and the market is at 1.3980
As stated yesterday, this market is moving into a downtrend with but with sizable corrections upwards. I am still a SELLER at 1.4050 which I expect will be hit today. However, I want to lower my risk so I will be watching when it gets to that price to see if I can gain some extra pips by selling above that level. I will SMS each of you as I place the trade.
Having said that, I again repeat: I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading and WHY.I don't ask people to follow only my trades. My trades are simply MY trades,... some of the group trade my trades PLUS their own
Edit 7.20am NY time Market has been as high as 1.4028 I have just sent the initial SMS that is advising that we are close to the target. I am still a SELLER at 1.4050 (or better) which I expect will be hit today. However, I want to lower my risk so I will be watching when it gets to that price to see if I can gain some extra pips by selling above that level.
I will SMS each of you as I place the trade.
Edit 7.57am NY time I have just sold at 1.4035. I have a FIXED 100 pip Stop Loss which (as discussed last week) I will be moving periodically.
The market reached to only 1.4049 (1 pip from my target ) at the open of the US session, before starting to fall. I took this as a reversal of the European move from 1.3903 to 1.4049. The market was moving lower so I took the decision to open a trade at the lower price of 1.4035 rather than possibly miss the move.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3955 My trade is progressing well at this stage. I am letting it play itself out.
Edit 11.30pm NY time Market at 1.3904 The market has been wallowing around the 1.3900 area in Asian trade. It has bounced off 50% Fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880. and is hanging around the 1.3900 price. I have decided to take the profit and hopefully get back in at a higher price again in the European session. I will SMS as I close the trade
Edit 12.05am NY time Closed out my short at 1.3905 for a 130 pip profit
Emails
I apologize for the delay in responding to some emails. It has been an extended weekend because of the July 4 celebrations and now we have had broker friends visiting us, so my sparetime has been almost non-existent. But I will answer all emails soon.
Email 1
Can you include the charts for your analyses? Firstly, the blog is very "loaded" as it is and I don't want to load it up with heavy charts...but secondly, and more importantly, it is one of the most important traits of a trader to be able to quickly execute his own charts to confirm and verify the data (In Investment bank and brokerages, traders have this as a Key Performance Indicator for their job). I expect each trader in the group to be able to quickly execute their own charts (it should take less than 60 seconds). It is to help you become proficient in this skill.
Email 2
Can we have more responses to mails published. I am sure that other traders would be interested in my emails. The blog is now almost two years old. There is a vast database of previous email responses in the blog that answer most circumstances, but if I see a new or novel question then I publish it. I am also aware that the older members do not want to see the same questions re-hashed over and over. It is much "cleaner" to keep the blog simple
Having said that, I always answer EVERY email. If you as me a question I will answer it by email, but I may not put it on the blog because it has probably already been answered. However I expect that the more serious and committed traders to have already read the full blog. That way I am not answering the same question over and over simply because someone has not taken the effort to read the blog
Email 3
I really must pay more carefull attention to these upcoming news events. Just because I'm not seeking to trade news, does not mean it's irrelevant. Thanks for the warning in the blog. It saved me 30 pips thats correct...the volatility of a news event has the potential to knock you out of a good trade and then go right back to where it was before the news
Email 4
I'm coming to the conclusion that what really matters is the emotional state with which one approaches this business. Of course ...winning and losing money brings out the fear and greed in all of us...you need to control those issues
Currently quite often I'm finding myself thinking about how to accelerate my returns, how to get back into the market quickly if I've just lost to get all my money back and much more by increasing the risk - typical revenge trade, I guess. Don't do it...Walk away and don't trade for 24 hours
Money management is easy and looking for the trend does not seem difficult either once one has mastered their emotional attachment to all this. But what really gets me is to convince myself not to trade or not too look actively for a trade (where there isn't one) if I'm not sure on the trend for e.g. a given week. I got the impression this is the real problem I need to work on and everything else will fall in place - I'm trying hard but it does not come easy. Because you are probably looking for "reasons to trade" rather than the direction of the market
I'm thinking about methods to get around this but haven't got any firm conclusion yet. Any advise would be very welcome. Don't look at the market with the intention of finding a trade....look at the market as an academic exercise...Is the market going up or down in a consistent manner...ONLY THEN, do you think about a trade
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 398
It is 1.00am NY time Monday July 6 and the market is at 1.3980
I will be a definite seller this week. This market has turned and is turning down. After Fridays paper thin trading in the US session and very limited trading activity in Asia today, I will be looking for increased volume out of London and NY to give us opportunities to sell.
The only news items of note this week are the ISM Non -Manufacturing PMI today at 10.00am and then nothing until Friday when the BEA releases the Trade Balance numbers.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3940. I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
There is ONE very important line that is the basis of my trades this week.
By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3827 (June 23) and 1.3888 (June 25) and 1.3988 (July 2) we can see that the previous strong Support line has been broken. It is likely that it will now become a Resistance line. If you look at that line on today's price, the Resistance is at 1.4040 (or 1.4050 rounded).
I will be a SELLER at 1.4050 or higher.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3891 The market has dropped but I am not going to chase it. A 160 pip move to get back to my target can be easily done in this market within a 24 hour period so it is now a matter of waiting for a rebound.
Emails I have answered some emails today from last Friday but I have have some still to answer. I am just going out for dinner with Mark and some of his broker friends who are here on business from the US, so I will answer the remaining emails when I return.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 397
It is 1.00am NY time Friday July 3 and the market is at 1.3990
The US session will be very thin as US banks are closed for Independence Day.
As a good and patriotic American I am also taking the day off to spend with family and friends to celebrate Independence Day
If you have not read the previous two days posts, I would recommend that you do so, starting in date order from July 1. They are probably two of the most important sets of posts that I have posted lately (and there is not a single trade signal in them...LOL).
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 396
It is 1.00am NY time Thurssday July 2 and the market is at 1.4110
Today is Non Farm Payroll (NFP) day. It is arguably the most market moving news (along with FOMC announcement) on the calendar.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4100 The market is looking weak in the lead up to the London session. As I said yesterday, I will be looking to the NFP results today and the effects within the first 1 hour after to determine the strength and direction of the current movement. As stated last Thursday, the market has been fluctuating around the 1.4000 mark (plus or minus 200 pips for the last 30+ days). That has continued to be the case again this week. But today's NFP should be the decisive factor in determining where the market is going in the next few weeks
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4005 The NFP of another 467K US workers who have lost their jobs has sent the market down to the 1.4000 mark again. The Support line at 1.3950 wll be the target.
For those of you who do not want to read some advice from an old guy who has been relatively successful about how to make serious money, please go straight to the emails
I want to take the opportunity to discuss some serious matters relating to trading.I have had some really positive discussions about forex trading with some of you in the last 24 hours, especially those who are already trading fulltime (or are intending to trade full time)
As I have said before, in all my business experience, I have never seen a better business than forex trading. Its features of Leverage, Liquidity and rapid Compounding is unmatched in any business I have ever seen. And in a time when the Dow has lost 40+%, property has lost approximately 30+% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable, we are comfortably pumping out double digit percentage profits in the middle of the biggest financial crisis this generation has ever seen. ..... AND with a maximum risk of only 2% of capital on each trade.
It is an issue of control, discipline and keeping the proper time perspective .
For example, a question was asked that if I had used the higher risk of 4% versus the standard 2%, would my current return have increased from 30+% per year to 60% and the answer is yes. But I would not recommend it in the current environment. (I mean, really, what's wrong with earning 30+% in the middle of a near-Global meltdown?? ...AND learning a skill that will give you MUCH higher rates of return when the market returns to normality!!...AND that you can use for the rest of your life !!)
In discussions with the brokers in the last couple of days, they have said that there are only a couple of traders that they know that are matching our profit rate, but that they are trading with a much higher risk rate. In other words, their "risk of ruin" is much higher than ours.
In a time where 7 million US workers have joined the unemployment line in the last 12 months, the belief in the "safety of the salary" has never been exposed as much as today. The potential for anyone over 45 who is made redundant to be re-employed at a similar level of salary and responsibility is reported to be as low as around 5%.
Similarly, the destruction of the values of the 401K's (or superannuation / pensions/ retirement funds, etc) has highlighted the potential for a massive reduction in living standards in the future. Given the massive debts incurred by Governments around the world, the future of Government-funded Social Security and medical health systems is looking very dim. They simply cannot afford it.
I have always counselled people of the absolute necessity for individuals to have a business or career that YOU have control over to prevent the above situations impacting on your lives.
If you master those forex issues above, you will earn more than you ever thought possible.
Email 1
Hi Wayne, I was reading about your trading results which I can agree with you are having better returns than my financial advisors and managed investments are performing. My managed investments are almost all under water by a minimum of MINUS 10%. Yes , that appears to be the norm. Some Managed Investment Schemes I have seen are much worse than minus 10%. I expect that if you look at the value of your home, it would also have dropped significantly
I see that you use only a 2% of capital risk on each trade. If you increased your risk by 5 times to 10%, does your rate of return increase by 5 times to 150%. LOL. UH OH ..I know where this is heading. Yes..it would be nice to double my money and more each year....but the potential of going bust increases too !! I would certainly never recommend that anyone trade at more than 5% on any one trade EVER. And certainly NOT in the current trading environment. I am often receiving emails from traders who write that they had one bad trade that cost them 20%, 30% even 40% of their funds....That is just insane money management !!! It is driven by impatience and greed. The benefits of this business are sufficient to give you enormous annual returns. But the potential for huge losses is when you try to earn that annual return in one day!
Email 2
After reading all of the DailyFX posts, it appears that the market has changed drastically. Are you looking at ways to trade the new ranging markets that are now in place? I think that I am always looking to improve my trading to be flexible to the market
Now when I was trading back in 2006 and 2007 and the trend was more consistent, my trading return was incredibly high due to two factors: my annual percentage return (based on 2% per trade) was much higher than my 30+% in the current market because of the stability of the trend and
secondly, (because I had extreme confidence in the strategy I was employing), I was able to turbo-charge the returns by increasing the risk to 5% on most of the trades.
In the existing market, those strategies are still available....BUT they are much more dangerous. That is why I recommend only 2% risk of capital per trade and that you trade cautiously as you learn your new skill. This is a business that you will be able to do whenever and where ever you want ...for the rest of your life.
History has a case of repeating itself over and over, and we should see the return of a solid trend in the near future. As aspiring traders who want to become involved in this excellent industry, it is important that you use this time to learn your trade.
Having said that, even in this wild ranging market caused by the biggest financial crisis this generation has seen, we are still happy with our returns. My trading income is quite easy to work out. In less than one year, we have earned well in excess of 1000 pips times USD$10 per pip times 150- 200 contracts. Not bad for tapping computer keys
Email 3
Are there traders in the group doing better than you? Oh yes! There are a number of traders doing better than me. They are prepared to trade more aggressively than me and they are prepared to trade more often than me.
But they are also trading more dangerously than me....
Having said that, I am impressed with their respect for my opinion and most of them email me quite often asking how to better improve their trading. One common factor is that all the really successful traders are actively tapping into my experience to improve their own trading. They are not interested in just receiving trading signals. And they are taking responsibility that if they want to be a good trader, they have to work at it.
One of the newer traders from Australia is doing very, very well. It is very early days but he is easily on track to make a million dollars in the next few years. But the big advantage he has is that he understands the mentoring process. He understands that I am a mentor who acts as a sounding board, not his mother who is going to spoon feed him..LOL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 395
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday July 1 and the market is at 1.4035
An article from DailyFX today states "Forex options markets show that professional traders remain remarkably indecisive, and the lack of clear-cut sentiment on the US Dollar makes it difficult to set short-term expectations with any sense of certainty" An understatement of the Year !!
Yesterday's more aggressive trading paid off. I intend to proactively increase the number of trades as the opportunities arise. Looking back over June, two of the four loss trades were whipsawed by market spikes, and taken out by only 3 pips and 9 pips respectively, before the market dropped right back each time. Very frustrating...but thats trading.
I am also going to more proactively "nurse" each trade rather than just leave it to the more passive 100 pip TSLs. (I am considering a Fixed 100 pip Stop Loss and manually moving it periodically to keep it away from the 100 pip fluctuations that seem to be occurring with more frequency lately).
After a difficult month, I have spent some quality time this week talking to some of Mark's broker contacts and they are all saying the same thing. Many of their trader clients have been financially killed off by the market in the last 11 months since the Financial Crisis started August and have left the industry. The fact that we were never at any risk is considered by them as a very positive sign and a measure of our good money management. The fact that we are substantially in profit makes us one of the rare traders at the moment.
The common theme seems to be that most traders started increasing their trading sizes and frequency in the early stages of the Financial Crisis to recover initial losses from the increased volatility. We, on the other hand hunkered down and slowed our trading right down and became very selective, which allowed us to post excellent returns early and those profits have cushioned us over the year from the worst of the Financial Crisis.
That has encouraged me that we are on the right track. Mrs Jacko is still happy with my trading profits this year though she has told me that the latter part has not been as impressive as she would like. So I am under the hammer to punch out good trading results over the next two months as the first anniversary of the start of the Fund comes around.
As I have said before, in all my business experience, I have never seen a better business than forex trading. Its features of Leverage, Liquidity and rapid Compounding is unmatched in any business I have ever seen. And in a time when the Dow has lost 40+%, property has lost approximately 30+% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable, we are comfortably pumping out double digit percentage profits in the middle of the biggest financial crisis this generation has ever seen. ..... AND with a maximum risk of only 2% of capital on each trade.
It is an issue of control, discipline and keeping the proper time perspective . But if you master those issues you will earn more than you ever thought possible.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4065 After the market movement yesterday,
our Resistance line from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4151 (June 30)has moved up marginally to approx 1.4150.
Our Support line stays the same and is currently at approx 1.3950.
So we can see that the market is currently in the middle of the Support and Resistance lines.
I am waiting for it to get closer to the Resistance line so that I can sell it again
Edit 7.00am NY time Market at 1.4065 The news events for today are the ADP Non Farm Payroll at 8.15am. Note that the ADP NFP is not as reliable or respected as much as the Bureau of Labor Statistics NFP out tomorrow, but still has a significant impact. Then the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Pending Home Sales are released at 10.00am. These will also have a significant impact.
In light of the above, I would recommend staying out of the market until the dust has settled. The potential for 100 pip Stop Losses being whipped out is VERY high. Only the very brave or foolhardy trade TWO sets of news events within 2 hours of each other
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.4177 The market has moved upwards on reaction of the above two sets of news and has breached the Resistance line at 1.4150. Depending on the outcome of tomorrows NFP I will be re-considering the short approach to the market.
Emails
Email 1
Hi Wayne, I was surprised by your last trade. That is the first time since I joined over 12 months ago that that you have not forewarned us before the trade and sent me an SMS. I would prefer that we always get an SMS even if the buy or sale price has been passed. I could then make my own decision on whether I want to take a trade at the current market price. I would have traded at 1.4080. I sincerely apologise for the lack of the notification of the trade . As you say, this is the first time that the notification was not sent. It was not that the market move was quick, it was that MY DECISION to enter the trade was quick. The decision to go short had been stated on the blog last week and early this week. It was as I was watching it that I decided to jump in there and then.
Having said all that, I have repeatedly stated that I am NOT a signal service...My trades are NOT a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see WHEN and WHAT I am trading and WHY.I don't ask people in the group to follow only my trades. My trades are simply my trades,... some of the group trade my trades PLUS their own.
I am certain that we are now coming out of the worst of the Financial Crisis and I will be becoming more aggressive in the trading. I will try to make sure that we don't have a repeat . But also please keep it in perspective, it is only one missed trade in what will hopefully be many more trades in your career.
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