MESSAGE FROM JACKO 441

It is 1.00am NY time Thursday September 3 and the market is at 1.4275

The market has moved up from the 50% Fib line and is now moving back up but I am not sure that it will get all the way up to the Resistance line at 1.4380. This bull may not have the strength to get past 1.4350

Edit 3.10am NY time market is at 1.4300 As stated yesterday, I think this market is heading to the Resistance line area. Those adventurous traders who jumped in on the long side yesterday are doing well.

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4326 As expected the market has moved up to just under 1.4350 (at 1.4346 high). However, we have two serious news events at 8.30am NY time, an ECB Interest Rate Statement and and the US Unemployment Claims. Individually they are not top market movers, but together they will cause volatility spikes. I suggest staying out until after they are announced but will be looking to go short sometime afterwards today

Edit 8.45am NY time Market is at 1.4304.. I am a SELLER at 1.4300 or Higher . A 100 pip fixed Stop Loss. (SMS just sent) I will SMS again as I actually sell

Edit 10.10am NY time Market is at 1.4264 ..damn..The market has slipped away from me...I was hoping for a quick retracement back to 1.4320- 1.4330 area which never happened. Will wait again for the fish to return

Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is at 1.4267. The market has bottomed at 1.4245 and has moved up marginally. I am off to bed. I will look at this market again in 6 hours when I wake

Edit 6.40pm NY time Market is at 1.4260 The market was too quick and slippery to get that trade earlier today. However, I am still hopeful that we can get another opportunity to sell it today, so I am still a SELLER at 1.4300 or Higher . I will SMS as I execute any trade



Emails

Email 1
I would like to ask you how you read the market sentiment. Market sentiment is built into the price of everything Because sentiment is built into the price of everything, a daily price chart is a clear analysis of what the sentiment has done and is doing... For example, Since March, the Euro has been going up.../ ..the USD is going down...which means that everyone is selling the USD because they didn't like what was happening in the US economy.... However, since early June, you can see that the rate of selling of the USD (buying the Euro) has slowed, because they realised that the US economy had taken the pain and wasn't getting any worse, .....So the rate of selling theUSD slowed down and the market started to go sidewards.
From early August, the market could see that the US had taken all the pain and that the economy is coming out of its slump, so the USD started to strengthen and therefore the Euro has started to fall.
Remember that we are talking about the two biggest economies inthe world, so the change of direction seems very slow, especially for traders (who trade in even 4H time periods) and sometimes we just need to stop and have a look at the bigger picture to get the feel of where the market is really heading

Email 2
I understand why you draw the support line on your chart as you have detailed in your blog. Where I could do with some clarity is why this is the support line that matters to you ? To be a little clearer on what I am asking, why for example on the same 4hr chart would the support line drawn from 17th August - 27th August not feature as part of your TA. It seems to have been holding up pretty well so far ? It is too short a time frame for me...I use 300 4H bars to get the proper perspective.... The Support line you are suggesting is the same as a 300 set of 1H bars It does have some strength...this time,,, But I have found that 1H bars are not strong enough on too many occasions to be statistically safe
Equally with the resistance drawn from 13th August - 27th August. I appreciate there a totally different ways of looking at any chart, but crucially I would like to understand the criteria you use to select the specific trendlines that you use as support and resistance. The longer the times the stronger the lines...I draw my limit at 300 bars on the 4H charts