Tuesday, September 8, 2009

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 443


It is 1.00am NY time Monday September 7 and the market is at 1.4335

I am still hopeful that my SELL at 1.4350 orders will be triggered.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4339. The US market will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4446 (Aug 5) , and 1.4406 (Aug 27) we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4380.
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.3832 (July 8) and and 1.4048 (Aug 17) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.4150.
The 50% Fib line The nearest 50% fib is from 1.4048 (August 17) and 1.4406 (August 27) and is at 1.4225

As can be seen we are getting closer to the Resistance of 1.4380, but I want to make sure that I get this trade as I believe that the market is heading down in the medium term. So my SELL at 1.4350 orders are still in place

Edit 3.13am NY time. I have just SOLD at 1.4350. I have a 100 pip Fixed Stop Loss. (SMSes being sent)

Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.4332 . My shorts at 1.4350 are progressing slowly. The first target is the 50% Fib at 1.4225. When it gets there we will then make a decision to either close them at 1.4225 or hold them for the lower target of the Support line at 1.4150
(Note: Mrs Jackson is taking me out for dinner so I won't be answering any emails until late tonight US time. It should be a slow session today because the US is on Labor Day break. However I will be back at 12.15pm NY time)

Edit12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4344 The market is doing very little. I am now letting my trade play itself out.

Emails

Email 1
I sincerely appreciate your mentoring. I do not know how you manage to respond to everyone individually and still have time for your blog,trading, the fund … The groups are not that big (the $700 is very effective in keeping non-serious traders out) and the trading is easy...The admin of the Fund and the legal paperwork is the biggest drag
How do you monitor your trades? Do you have intervals at which youhave a look at price activity? Yes, every 2 -3 hours...If it is getting close to a target , I will look a bit more often.. HK is very good for business screens all around the city in the shops etc. Most banks have Bloombergs or Reuters in their front windows
It was unusual of you to set a take profit like you did last week at1.4250. Thought your preference is to let your profit run, except on late Fridays. Were you being cautious in case price reversed again? No, I was just annoyed with myself over how I handled the trade on the Monday, so rather than let it annoy me more, I decided to just get rid of it
I have also noticed that in the past few trades you have not movedyour fixed 100SL to break even…we would have been closed out by yesterday's reversal if we did…so I guess it's good we did not, however, at what times should we move to break even? I am getting very confident that this market is trending down each move so I am not concerned about a trade going against me for a couple of pips. I am more inclined to use the drops as opportunities to get out and then get back in again as it goes retraces
How can I avoid being undecided and having itchy fingers at such times? You can't...It is human nature...It is a balance of greed and fear. But as you become more experienced you will learn to just be reasonable in your profits
Is it wise to exit if I feel I have made some decent profit inrelation to my target for the month? Yes, the key is to rein in the greed,,,because no market goes in the one direction forever without a retracement
In my case it is 7% (about 350pips @ 2% risk, 100SL OR 280 pips @ 2.5% risk OR 235 pips @ 3% risk,100SL). I have moved my risk to 2.5%, 100SL per trade so I can targeta net of 3 AA+ trades per month. It looks easy and achievable withyour method of trading; I pray I can make it slowly, steadily and consistently.You will...and they are good returns
I hope I am not being too naïve with my expectations - 7% monthly and consistently amounts to about 125% per annum when compounded…award winning Yes, and totally achievable. I think the market is starting to stabilise and get back to much better trading conditions than the last 12 months which were horrific for Trend Traders. Have a look at a 300 bar monthly chart and you will see what I mean

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