Friday, September 18, 2009

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 451


It is 1.00am NY time Thursday September 17 and the market is at 1.4728

The last trade did not turn out the result I would have liked. However, the trade was a full 100 pip loss and resulted in only a 2% loss of trading capital. We move on to the next trade opportunity.

Having said that, the blog was started two years ago in Oct 2007 and I have been posting every day. Mrs Jackson has politely asked me to have a one week vacation without the computer. (She asked me whether I wanted to sleep with her..... or the computer next week. She also said that if I even opened the computer, the bed would freeze over !....Hmmmmm...OK !!). We often travel but always book our flights for the weekends so as not to disrupt my trading. However, this time Mrs J wants a one week No-Computer week .
So I will not be trading or answering any emails next week.

Edit 3.00am NY time Market is at 1.4745. The bullish rise in the Euro since Sept 7 has been very impressive. It must be getting near its overbought climax very soon. I will be waiting for the first significant correction before entering again.


Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4711 The market has gone 50+ pips past my stop Loss and is now back to the same area as when I was stopped out (If this was in the direction of the Trend I would be all in as an A-H trade). However, it is NOT in the direction of the trend, so I have NOT placed an A-H trade. However, I will be watching this with interest to see how the market moves in the next 24 hours. (I am still looking for ways to improve my trading). I am on the sidelines.

Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.4740 After dropping as low as 1.4688, the market has bullied its way back up to the 1.4750 area. I am still on the sidelines.

Emails

Email 1
I was wondering whats your opinion in either moving your stops to break even or locking in profits once your in the green. Many times i'm in a winning trade where i'm up 50+ pips only to have it reverse on me and hit my SL instead. so what originally was a profitable trade now became a loss. an example would be the trade you are in now, last night the position you took was well over +50 pips in profit, but now your over -50 pips. I agree but,
Firstly, that would require me to start taking profits at only 50 pips...and I am looking for more than that amount of pips per trade.

Secondly, there have been many successful trades where the market has moved back and forth more and less than my entry point in the initial stages.
Thirdly, I tried the strategy of moving SL to BE very quickly in early this year (January) and the strategy was not successful. We didn't lose pips on most of the trades, but we lost some good opportunities to make profits because we were choking off the trades too quickly

Email 2
I was just wondering about the stop loss on this trade. I see the next resistance is 1.4720 and with the normal 100 pip s.l.our S.L. would be 1.4715. In circs like this do you not increase your stop to put you a bit past resistance . No, I understand your strategy but if it pops 1.4720, there will be a lot of Stops so it will quickly shoot past about 10 -20 pips as the SLs are popped. That would take the SL to 115+ pips which is too much…with NO guarantee that it would be successful

Email 3
You mentioned last year's high of 1.4720 is a backstop, what do you mean by this? When a market is rising, previous highs act as Resistance (as brokers are cautious about buying at a new "higher" level). Now if you look at a weekly chart back to December 2008, you will see that the market rose to as high as 1.4720 and has not been higher since that time...so it acts as a price of Resistance...

Email 4
Would you use an A-H trade on this last trade? An A-H trade is only used for trading with the trend...It is a backstop/ insurance policy for the trend trading. Having said that, the potential for a correction is in the stratosphere level...It must be very close, but I am not prepared to risk it at this point in time...I now want to see a much more defined turning of the market

Email 5
I know we've been expecting the march ever northwards not to have happened, then to to retrace, or the bull to die; but it has not, kicking down fresh trendlines and storming forth with its new highs. Is this just something we've got to live with occasionally? Yes. But usually I am on the right side of the trade
Is the bear dead, or wounded and dangerous? Certainly not dead, but is wounded and VERY dangerous

Email 6
i have 3 years anniversary of married today so i would like to ask you if you have some ideas how to explain to wife that sometimes i need to look at the charts from time to time ( she if very annoyed by that :) Mrs Jackson and I agreed that work stops for the weekend and I only focus on her for those two days...It is one of the best benefits of being a trader...You can stop for the weekends because the markets are closed
i was trying to show her how things are going but when i start talking about swap etc. she falls asleep:) Mrs Jackson specialises in shopping (and the bedroom) and leaves me to specialise in the trading. However, we have an agreement that I will not work on the weekends because they are "her" days

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