The information below was extracted from Jacko's Trading Blog
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 36
It is 7.50 pm am NY time Tuesday January 15 and the market is at 1.4805.
My trade was closed at 1.4871 (1.4921 - 50 = 1.4871) for a profit of 21 pips.
I have read some great emails from some of you who not only got in at a better price because you did NOT get overly excited, you did NOT panic, you were NOT greedy, you acted calmly and rationally...And you DID get in lower than 1.4850 on the entry price.
I have also read some great emails from some of you that decided to "take the money and run with a guaranteed 50 + pips" on the exit price.
I have also read all the great emails saying that you made 50 + pips on the total trade.
Now, will you stop sending the bragging emails !!!!!... LOL (The sound that you can hear is the sound of my gnashing of teeth and fits of jealous rage... LOL).
The market has now dropped to around 1.4800. We had so much fun with this trade from Message 34 that I want to do it all over again.
I am still firmly of the belief that this market will see 1.5000 + in the near future. It is therefore time to again start taking long positions in order to profit from that belief. Having said that, I don't wish to pay too much, so I am looking to buy at a discount.
I am a buyer at 1.4750.
It is a round number, a point of strong Support and resistance in the past, and it is on the rising 4 hourly trend line 1.4310 (from late Dec) and touching 1.4641 (10 Jan). (Note: I dont think that it will drop too much below 1.4750 so I would set it to buy at 1.4750 or very close to that price).
And remember, we have the A-H strategy as an insurance policy...especially from this relatively low price.
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 37
It is 10.00 pm NY time Wednesday January 16 and the market is at 1.4660.
NO SMS text message was sent for this message as it is not time critical
My trade was executed at 1.4750 and within minutes stopped out at an average of 1.4690 (slippage) for a sixty pip loss. (Ouch...Even my wife couldn't spend money that quick !!).
It was so quick that by the time I was notified by the brokers that my trade had been done and lost (they always like to contact me if the market starts moving quickly) it was all over. It should also be noted that even they didn't know what had caused the savage drop...they were all guessing like everybody else!!.
My A-H strategy was initiated when it fell through 4650, so my fallen soldier will rise again when the market hits 1.4700
Again, the lesson from this trade is: ALWAYS use stops.
Apart from my fallen soldier buy order at 1.4700, I am standing aside from this market for 24 hours while I appraise the situation.
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 38
It is 10.40 pm NY time Thursday January 17 and the market is at 1.4638.
My A-H trade from Message 37 was executed at 1.4700, rose to 1.4710 then fell, stopping me out at 4660 for a 40 pip loss.
The last 36 hours have seen the biggest test of my methodology since I started trading.
1. This is the first time that I have had an initial trade position go straight down 50 pips . (Thank you Euro Central Bank !!!)
2. This is only one of two or three occasions that the A-H fallen soldiers hasn't recovered all my losses from a trade.
3. This is the first time that my A-H soldier has lost almost its full (50 pips) value.
It would be fair to say that the intervention by the ECB initiated a very strong stress test of my trading method. (A 200+ pip drop in less than 25 minutes is not a normal daily event !)
The result of this major test of my trading was a total loss of 100 pips (50 pips plus slippage from the first trade AND 40 pips from the A-H). It was also certainly a substantial sum of money to give back to the market.
While I am disappointed that we have had a loss, the fact that we survived an event as unusual as an ECB intervention in the market with a maximum loss of 100 pips, gives me confidence in the future of my trading.
Even though I have been trading for years, these tests of my trading methods tend to boost my confidence.
Later when I look back and realise that, what seemed very dramatic at the time, only served to build my confidence in myself and my trading methods. (As someone who has been in the stockmarket when it dropped 25% literally in a day or two, like it did in 1987, and then watched all my losses be returned and increase my net worth substantially over the next couple of years, it only serves to increase your trading experiences and abilities. By the way a 25 % drop in todays market would be a drop of over 3000 points off the Dow Jones in a day)
Again, the result of this major test of my trading was a total loss of 100 pips (50 pips plus slippage from the first trade AND 40 pips from the A-H). If we put that in context, it is less than 62% of the profit from just the last trade made in 2007 (where we made 163 pips). Also, we are still substantially in profit over the 72 days since our first trade.
Again, while that loss is disappointing, it should be kept in perspective. It should not deter anyone from being in this "business". It is still, without a doubt, the "best business I have ever seen.
The question that now arises is whether the major trend has changed. For me, the answer is that this intervention by the ECB will be a very temporary influence. They are trying to break the belief that the Euro will continue to rise due to the appalling state of the US budgets. However this jaw-boning won't work. There has been NO substantial action taken by the US to pull back those yawning deficits. (Bernanke is still talking about reductions in interest rates to bail out his friends on Wall ST...unbelievable !!!) Until we see substantial action happen, we will continue to see a fall in the USD (and rise in the Euro).
In light of everthing above, I am still firmly of the belief that this market will see 1.5000 + in the near future. It is therefore time to again start looking for opportunities for taking long positions in order to profit from that belief.
However, I will be taking a break for a long week end and will be back into trading on Monday.
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 39
NEW FEATURE : See new live updates at bottom of this message.
It is 6.00am NY time Tuesday January 22 and the market is at 1.4480.
I have just got up and am looking at the carnage across Asian and to a lesser degree European stockmarkets again today. (it is only 5.30am here)
Stockmarket Woes
It is ironic that I mentioned in only my last message that "As someone who has been in the stockmarket when it dropped 25% literally in a day or two, like it did in 1987, and then watched all my losses be returned and increase my net worth substantially over the next couple of years, it only serves to increase your trading experiences and abilities.( By the way a 25 % drop in todays market would be a drop of over 3000 points off the Dow Jones in a day)"
If you were not around in 1987, you should watch history again today...it won't be as big a drop as in 1987 (in % terms)... but it should be interesting. Maybe 500+ points off the Dow? With more to come later in the week??
The hard reality is that the monsterous liquidity and extreme leverage binge of the last decade or more, is
over !! (At least for a little while...)
The Eur/USD
However, lets now move to the impact on currencies, especially the USD.
The move to strength in the USD was initiated by the intervention of the ECB on Thursday and Friday last week.
(The Euro does not move 200+ points in less than 30 minutes solely on the effect of Trichets bland statement)
especially when every broker I spoke to at the time, had NO idea as to what was causing the drop. All they could tell me was that there was a monster seller (read a Central Bank or two) of the Euro in the market.
Friday was digesting the big move by the ECB and and was going into a long weekend in the US so the market had thin trading volumes so again there was an easy market to push down
This was compounded on Monday, by the flight to quality (the USD Govt Bond safe haven) as stock markets started to crumble throughout Asia, Europe and the rest of the world.
However, we need to see through the morass of all this and ask ourselves the key questions:
If you look at Message 26 you will see the same issues
The questions to be asked therefore are:
1. Has the problem of all those bad debts from sub-prime mortgages gone away? ...the answer is NO
2. Has the money that has been pumped into the system been written off and not need to be repaid by the Wall St banks in the near future ??? ...the answer is NO
3. Have the necessary structural changes to the US economy been made that will reverse the yawning US deficits??...the answer is NO
5. Will President Bush's $145 Billion stimulus package outlined last Friday help ....the answer is NO. (It is a "political" answer to the economic problem). The impact of the stimulus package will end up increasing the twin deficits –the current account deficit and the fiscal deficit- by multiples of the original $145 Billion, which would continue to erode the value of the USD
6. Will Bernanke's proposed 0.5% -0.75% interest rate cut strengthen the USD ...NO, in fact it will weaken it
The result of all the above is that in the longer term, I believe the US dollar will continue to weaken
In the short term the US Dollar has strengthened due to ECB intervention on Thursday and Friday, followed by a
flight to safety caused by the crumbling Asian and European stockmarkets.
Do I believe that the major UP trend from Oct 2000 and Nov 2005 has changed ??? The answer is NO
The question is to what level will the US Dollar temporarily strengthen and rise compared to the Euro... That is, to what level is the Euro like to fall??
I think that it has bottomed at 1.4361 earlier this morning (3am NY time) I would be surprised to now see the Euro hit 1.4350 and would be VERY surprised to see it hit 1.4150 (which is the 50% of the rise from 1.3359 (on Aug 15) to 1.4966 (on Nov 22).I am starting to look for entry points for long positions for another run up to 1.5000
I am a buyer at these levels of around 1.4450 to 1.4470 (or LESS than 1.4500... the market is moving quickly)
Anti-Hedge Strategy
Also, on another note, I have had a number of questions about the A-H strategy ( regarding what to do on the very rare occasion that an A-H trade results in a loss). A sample question is below and the answer is in red I have once a question, did you set a second AH Order when the A-H trade was stopped out or don't you do that after the first AH was stopped out? No, if A-H is stopped out, that is it! We do not chase a correction to the trend, by continuing to add A-H trades. There is only ever one A-H trade attached to an earlier loss trade.
UPDATES
Edit: Stopped out at by TSL at 7.10 am at 1.4480 for minimal profit... Looking for new entry point
Edit 9.40 am. Wall St opening has had very little impact on Eur/ USD. Buy at 1.4550
Edit 10.35 Market at 4630. TSL moved to 4580
Edit 10.55 am Market high is now 4644. TSL stop moved to 4594.
Edit 11.00 Am leaving to go out with Mrs Jacko. Mark may update TSL here
Edit 6.50pm Am back. Market high is 1.4684 TSL moved to 1.4634
Stooped out at 1.4634 for an 84 pip profit.
7.40pm Waiting for new entry point.
To be added later. Keep watching this area, the market is moving quickly and I need to post. I will add to this through the day
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 40
It is 1.10am NY time Wednesday January 23 and the market is at 1.4638.
See new live updates at bottom of this message.
No SMS was sent for this message
My 1.4550 trade was closed at 1.4634 (1.4684 - 50 = 1.4634) for a profit of 84 pips.
My earlier trade, which was a bit messy because of the speed of the market, earned me some pips but not enough to get excited about. And because I was so busy typing my reasons for the trade and placing my own trades, not everyone got the SMS in time. (Please note...Most of the group are more interested in my reasonings, rather than just the" buy/ sell at XXXX" statement. However, I am taking steps to make it quicker)
1. Blog Changes
I can't wait to get back to Asia so that I can trade at civilised times. This getting up in the early hours to see London open is a pain in the ass! I am not a morning person!!
At home in HK, London opens in the mid afternoon (HK time) which allows me to trade it easily and NY opens in the early evening (HK time) so I can easily watch trades then till about US lunchtime. (Also it allows me to spend all day watching my wife spend horrific sums of money and then I have a sumptious lunch of bread and water...she still hasn't let me forget about that trading loss !!) And, since hardly anything happens after lunch in NY trade and Asian trade (they tend to trade the USD/JPY more), I can sleep easily.
Also I have included the live updates to the blog (now that I know that I can keep the blog open all the time!)
Also I think the live additions to the blog will work even better when I get back to HK, especially for the members from Europe and Asia.
Also, I will be changing the SMS messages to "Buy at ???" and you can then can go to blog to see reasons.
However, while I am in the States, the reasons for the trade will definitely be delayed...to be typing out the reasons for the trade in the very early hours of the morning would definitely NOT put me in the good books with "she who must be obeyed" . If I can see a movement late in the night here, I will post the proposed trade AND the reasons here. Again, this will work much better, when I am back in Hong Kong.
2. Obsessive addiction to trading
Some of you have contacted me to describe some of your trades on Friday last week and again on the public holiday (Dr Martin Luther King Day) on Monday. A word of advice: The Friday was digesting the previous big (200+ pips in less than 30 minutes) move by the ECB and was going into a long weekend in the US so the market had thin trading volumes so there was an easy market to push around That was again repeated on Monday which was a public holiday (Dr MLK Day) with very thin trading volumes.
Days like those are best left alone. It is a time to take a couple of DAYS (not just hours) to clear your head, step back and have a look at the big picture. It is not a time to be in the market. (You can make money...but you can make money ANYTIME in this market.
3. Market Ramping
Also, it was interesting to see the manipulating of the market downwards on the very thin days...this was a replica of the action during Thanksgiving when they ramped it up to 1.4966.
This was also a strong indicator to me that 1.4361 (just at the start of London time) was the climax downwards.
Am going back to bed...will finish this later..will trade when US opens....looking for a lower price to get in say 4550
Edit 9.00 am and just woke up. I am looking for a price to get in. Market is falling nicely so it is getting close.
We will get it cheaper than 4550...just don't know what it will be yet...I will SMS the buy price when I feel the falling knife has stopped
Edit 9.25 am Ok I have had my coffee and had a quick look at the market. Market is weaker than expected...holding off until I see the action around 4500. It is tempting, but I want to see if I can get myself a bargain...
Edit 10.06 Market has shown confirmation...wait for next retracement to 4550 and buy at better than 4550. We are close to the target zone. Will post here when I buy
Edit 10.50 getting down into the zone...Market at mid 4550's...patience is a virtue
Edit 11.00 Was just asked this question: I have a question re confirmation – what do you actually look for as confirmation? Answer: a retracement back...but not as low as the spike (that is, a retracement back below 1.4550 but NOT below bottom of spike at 1.4510)
Edit 11.30 Market has meandered back above 4575..am losing patience with this market today...it is in "no mans land"...can't seem to make up its mind...it has 15 more minutes to do something before I call it quits for the day...this is the longest I have watched a potential trade by sitting in front of the computer in a long time...how did I get chained to this computer today???...LOL
Edit 11.40 When I get home (to HK) I think that the live blog/commentary will be better...HK is a much more convenient times...the wife is pestering me to get out and about. She gets upset if I am at a computer during the early part of the day...she doesn't mind so much in the afternoon and night, but she likes to get out and be active in the mornings (and someone has to carry her shopping bags !!!...LOL)
11.55 am Well, some 11 hours ago, ....I got the direction of where the market was heading correct,... I got pretty close on my target area of price 4550 (without it busting through 4500),.... and if I had been sharper and quicker on my execution at around 9am I would now be in a profitable trade (it all goes into the woulda,coulda, shoulda file....but it is still nice to know that I can at least get close to the target from 11 hours out, especially when it was 1.10 am in the morning ).
11.55am I am out of the market for the rest of today...tomorrow is another day
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 41
It is 9.15 am NY time Thursday January 24
I wont be trading Thursday today due to personal issues with my father
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 42
It is 8.10pm NY time Saturday January 26 and the market is closed.
NOTE: The SMS text messages for this message were delayed so as not to call anyone in the early hours.
Firstly I would like to welcome the three members of the new (second) group to this Blog.
Secondly, that scream of crying that you heard a few days back was me crying like a baby over the fact that my wife had dragged me out of the house a mere one hour before the market hit 1.4550. ( However, many of you did not miss the opportunity to tell me that you took the trade as soon as it hit 4550, even if you got in above 4550 as it started moving up...a bit impatient, but very profitable).
By my calculations, those of you who got in at those trades just above 1.4550 went through three near death experiences (when the market dropped 47 pips from the highs and just missing the 50 pip trailing stops: from 4638 to 4591, from 4688 to 4641 and 4778 to 4732) before being finally stopped out at 4728.
As stated in Message 39, I believed that 1.4361 would be the bottom.
Also, I still believe that the USD will continue to decline (that is, the Euro will continue to go up) in the future. (there will obviously be corrections, but the long term trend is still UP for the present time)
Thirdly, the market appears to be "rolling over" ( see below for an explanation). See an hourly chart for the last 24 hours. I would suggest that it may drop to around 1.4600 early in the week (Monday). However I would be surprised to see it break below our beloved 1.4550 mark
However, I also suggest not to attempt to "short" it because it is a risky trade. That is a pure "speculative" trade with NO A-H trade as insurance.
A stronger probability trade is to start to look for a "buy" entry point around the 1.4600 or lower. (Note: I may not be available to give a live call on this so it is a discretionary trade...If you wish to trade it, it is at your discretion).
I have received some interesting emails
Emails
1. One of the question that was emailed to me asked what was my trading "edge". My answer basically was very short. It was that I believe that in the long run, this market (the Euro) will continue to rise. Therefore, as long as that is correct,( and I use the A-H strategy when my belief is temporarily wrong due to a correction) I am on a one way street to excellent profits
2. One of the emails asked me about my ENTRY strategies. (there was also some discussion about it on FF a little while ago) My answer: Thanks for your email. Until recently, I didn't even really think of entries as a strategy or technique, it was just "seeing" things in the market that swing the balance of probabilities in my favour. However, the blog is starting to cause me to actually think it out in steps.
Exhaustion Spikes
The first step is to look for an exhaustion spike, which will differ in size depending on the time frame that you want to trade. (For those trading shorter times there will be more spikes but they will also be smaller).
The second step is to let it bounce up once, and drop but not as far as the bottom of the spike. (confirmation).
When it starts rising, then start buying.
It is so simple and so second nature to me that I didn't even see it as a technique. To me, it just was what I do.
How do I know which spike? I usually look for a spike in the very early stages of the London or US open. If a market has just been going down, down, down for some time, then when the London or the US opens it will spike down and then quickly reverse direction.
Rolling over
I first heard this expression in Forex from John_G from DailyFX (a UK trader who seemed to specialize in the GBP). It is when the market gently and gradually (over about 5 periods or bars) comes to a high and then just starts to roll gently and gradually (over about 5 periods or bars) down the other side. It then starts to pick up momentum. It also often happens on the rounded bottoms. As it starts to pick up momentum, you jump in. In both cases, there is no need for technical analysis...it is learning to "listen to the music" of the price action.
3. In one of the messages I asked "what significant event has occurred that has turned (or will turn) around the continuing monthly deficits and start(!) to reduce the appalling deficits?"..... unless we see a significant change in the US government attitude to the appalling deficits, we will see continued weakness in the USD."
One of the group asked the reverse of this question, What significant event are you looking for?
My answer : I can't believe that Bernanke is being permitted to lower interest rates at the rate he is doing so, just to bail out Wall St. Obviously, all pretence of maintaining the USD as the worlds premium currency is out the window.
The medicine HAS to be taken. There should be no more interest rate cuts. All the markets can take a short time...or a longer time...to sort out the excesses. I am a believer in transparency and by lowering the interest rates, the miscreants on Wall St have longer to hide their losses. Until such time as Wall St is forced to face up to some of its excesses it will continue to hide them. Furthermore, by lowering the interest rates, some of the "bad practices" can go on for an even longer period.
This dishonesty in the American financial system, (plus the appalling deficits) are the major reasons as to why the rest of the world is fast losing faith in the USD
So...when I see Bernanke stand up to Wall St and say..."No more interest rate cuts !", then I will start to look for a change in trend.
Finally, I would like to say that I am really enjoying the group and, in particular, the blog. It is a benefit to me in that it is making me look deeper into some of the aspects of how I trade. I also get a nice feeling from thinking that I am helping our small group of "little" traders beat up the bigger guys on the other side of our trades. The downside is the amount of time spent on the computer answering emails. (Mrs Jacko says it cuts into her shopping time...LOL). So if you can assist in keeping emails to a minimum (or better still, list all your questions in one email), especially while am not at home, then it will allow me to spend more time on the blog and not cop so much flak from "she who must be obeyed".
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 43
It is 1.25am NY time Wednesday January 30 and the market is at 1.4768.
We have a Counter Trend trade available for those who wish to trade the London market today.
The four hour trend line from 1.4364 (at 4am Jan 21) and 1.4661 (at 4am Jan 28) has just been breached at 1.4764.
I am a SELLER at 1.4750 with a 50 pip TSL
See new live updates at bottom of this message.
Emails
1. One of the best emails I have received lately simply said "Now I am starting to get it! Now I am making profits!"
2. I noticed you used a 50 pip trailing stop based on your posts on forexfactory.com, is that very important to your strategy? Yes, it is very important. It prevents you having to make a decision about a trade while you are actually IN the trade...this takes all the emotion out of trading...however, you also have the option of closing a trade IF you think that the market has shot up quickly and is likely to retrace. Close the trade and wait for it to fall and then buy again at the lower price. However, many times I have seen people close out early, only to see the market keep on rising (see the last Blog message when there were three potential "get out early" trades when the market was retracing back towards the 50 pip mark, but the price just kept on going up) .
Just a reminder re A-H strategy and execution
3. I have one question with AH strategy. I place an buy order at say 1.4550 and my stop loss is at 1.4500 (50 pips). The market rallies to 1.4575 and then goes down and fills my stop loss order at 1.4525 (1.4575 - 50 pips).
Then the market goes down even more (50+ pips). Now the AH strategy. Should I place a buy order at 1.4525 (my latest stop loss) or at 1.4500 (my initial stop loss) ? You place the order at 1.4525
Scaling in
4. As you have said, your method is nothing new (except the A-H takes sooooo much pressure off) Yes !!! but the key for me is the attitude and mental state we all have trading this way. I'm much easier to be around and my wife thanks you!
My biggest question is not about the method itself, (it's very simple) but about adding to positions. Once in a trade and it becomes obvious it is going your way with no resistance or support nearby, do you just add positions at round numbers with a 50pip TSL until you are taken out or do you wait for pullbacks to add just like we wait for pullbacks for initial entries. It seems that waiting for pullbacks will usually take you out of the original position, so each "add to" will actually be a new position. Yes, that is why I don't believe in adding positions unless it is a long way in profit. Also, adding positions means that you are starting at the "best" position with only a small amount. I tend to hit the market with a full amount...THEN, if I get say 120 pips up, then I will hit it again with 50% of my original trade. Having said that, I usually trade at 5% of my account for
first trade. However, until you feel comfortable with your trading style, I would recommend that you stay at 2%
Will add to this when US market opens...going back to bed
Edit 9.00am Still waiting for "short" at 1.4750 on stop to be hit.
Edit 9.30 am Still waiting ..market now at 1.4771...down from 1.4785 at 9.00am
Edit 10.10 Still waiting Some have asked if I am concerned about the interest rate decision in 4 hours
I have just a strong feeling that the market has factored in too high an interest rate cut. If the Fed cuts hard again, they will soon have the problem of Japan where interest rates were so low, that they couldn't go any lower....and what tools does the Fed have then ???? I don't think that the Fed wants to lose that option. But...I could be wwwwrong !!
Edit 10.35 am I just went outside...yep, watching the grass growing IS more exciting than this market at the moment
Edit 11.00 am Am going out for a while ...will be back at 2.00pm
Edit 2.05 pm Am back. Looks like the market is having a bit of a run at 4800. Am still not convinced that we won't see 4750 today
Edit. 2.25pm Fed cuts 0.5%. Market at 4856. I don't trade the news. There was no trade today. Will let the dust settle and trade tomorrow.
Edit 2.35pm Hmmm... I thought that Fed would cut by 0.5 but I also thought the market would be disappointed with that. Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours.
Edit 11.30pm I am starting to think about throwing the counter trend strategy aside.
Even though the CT trade wasn't triggered, it effectively stopped me from taking a long sided trade. Might go back to only trading with the long term trend.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 44
It is 9.45am NY time Thurssday January 31 and the market is at 1.4832.
Please cancel any outstanding SELL at 1.4750 orders.
I am starting to think about throwing the counter trend strategy aside. Even though the CT trade wasn't triggered, it effectively stopped me from taking a long sided trade. Might go back to only trading with the long term trend.
The Counter Trend strategy was originally established as a method to have trades that capitalise on the corrections but it also I feel was wanted by some who still wanted to trade when the trend was correcting. (Trading activity made some feel better). I am putting the strategy aside for the foreseeable future...although it hasn't made any real losses, it has cost too much in lost long trade opportunities.
I am actually stripping it all back to just the way I used to trade...No counter trends, no over-trading, setting long term target entries which are best buy points...and waiting for them.
It was difficult for a while there when I was receiving emails saying "why aren't we buying/selling here?" or "why didn't we buy/sell here where we woulda, coulda, shoulda made money?"
When you start to get bombarded with these type of emails, firstly, you start to doubt yourself and your strategies, and secondly you start to overtrade in order to satisfy the pressure of the emails. (The best "conscience" that I have is Mark...He seriously tells me off when I start to get off track...Luckily, I have been a long way away from him lately)
Having said that, I am personally responsible. Ironically, I started the group just as the Euro started to seriously move into a sidewards pattern and I felt that the group was "looking" for trades. I felt obligated to "perform".
January wasn't a bad month for the group, but we had the potential to have done much better.
Emails (with my responses in RED)
1. Just a thought in regard to your message 44. Maybe we could only look at CT trades that break the daily
Trend so as we can still pick up the larger retracement moves That would otherwise have us on the sidelines for extended periods.
Also CT trades like the one I am in from using the exhaustion spike I saw on the hourly chart peaking at 14913 may be worth hanging on to. If anyone wants to use ANY of the aspects of the counter trade in your own trading (eg the exhaustion spike etc) , please feel free to use them.
2. I also think that it is better if we trade only in the direction of the major trend. In the past I was trading also CT, but since I trade your strategy I have a real problem in going short against the major trend. I agree
But the most important point is how you already wrote at the blog, that sometimes we miss the trades in the trend direction. I definitely agree...its time to stop trying to satisfy others...its time to make money from trend trading
3. If you want my .02 I think going back to trading only the long term trend is a good move. Thanks For me one of my objectives of trading is to Only take trades that I feel are High Probability Trades. Exactly !!!. Like you have said you do not do anything different than what is written in many of the good books on trading and I believe to be successful a person should want to strive to trade well, not necessarily often. Exactly ! That is one of the premises that drew me to your style of trading in the first place. That's because that is how how I wanted to trade myself. One thing that most people forget to consider is the "scalability" of this business. Once you have a profitable and reliable trading strategy, then the number of trades becomes irrelevant. The aim is to get from a trading size of $10 per pip to $100 per pip asap. Then move to $200 per pip etc.... (I will leave you to do the Maths)..
4. Also, I want to repeat something I said earlier this week : I would like to say that I am really enjoying the group and, in particular, the blog. It is a benefit to me in that it is making me look deeper into some of the aspects of how I trade.
Jacko
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