MESSAGE FROM JACKO 60
Live update below
Some really good email questions below
Still waiting for an attractive entry point.
Will post more in about 90 minutes.
It is 6.30am NY time and and market is looking "heavy".. Ok, an explanation of why I think it looks heavy. Go to:
1. 4 hourly chart you can see the start of the market "rolling over" (lower highs and lower lows...but it is a gradual rollover)
2. 1 hourly chart, you can see the rollover a bit more clearly. It also breaks the one hour trend line touching 4613, 4707 and 4812. (however, the rollover is becoming so clear that you hardly need the trend line...trendline break is just a nice confirmation).
3. For those of you who like the tiny time frames ( i don't), if you look at the 5 minute chart, you can see that it is trending down over the last 24 hours of trading. Also, it has bottomed twice at around 4795. If and when it breaks 4795, it is going quickly to 4750.
If you go back to the 1 hourly chart you can see quite easily where it may fall to... it may fall to 4750...a point of heavy resistance 0n Feb 19 and 21 respectively..and a round number
Also if we go to the 4 hour chart, we can see that, if it goes past our first target of 4750, it would be aiming at 4650 (50% fib from 4450 approx to 4850 approx). Also 4650 saw resistance on February 6, 15 and 19. I would be very surprised to see 4650 broken to significant degree.
So....I am a buyer at 4750....preferably from the underneath.
Edit 10.50 am NY time Market is looking weak at 4827. Ok, an explanation of why I think it looks "weak". Market is trying to go up but is having difficulty getting clear of 4830. Especially considering that the first two hour of trading are the most active. Therefore I think that 4795 is a goner today during NY trading. Jacko
Emails
1. With the new 100 TSL rule, does one wait for another 100 point drop before setting the AH rebuy entry or still wait only for a 50 point drop as with the old 50 TSL? Thanks for your help, 50 pip drop only
2. Hi Jacko,I can now dedicate my full time to trading; and I am still in the process of deciding what type of trader I really want to be.I enjoy the action of the 5 minute charts.I also enjoy the relaxed pace of the longer term charts and letting a substantial profit materialise over a matter of days. Do both...just compartmentalise your thinking...and your accounts
Did you start out trading on the daily and 4 hours charts? No. I started forex trading on shorter time frames but it was unsustainable (for me). I didn't want to "work" that much...and neither did my wife (want me to "work" that much)
3. Now that we are out of the market, I am eager to get back in. And this is where I think you can help most. I keep looking for new entries and even different pairs to get back into the market and I'm currently impatient and frustrated at missing the recent move above 4800. Can you please offer your wisdom and guidance to me, so that I don't do something rash and jump into a trade hoping I don't miss this big move? I think its times like this which test us and either make or break a trader. You guidance is most appreciated.
It is a realization that you will NOT get every trade. Even if you had been in every trade mentioned above, your greed would kick in. You would start to say that you should have traded every shorter term waves within those trade. Then you would be trying to trade the smaller short term waves within those trades. Eventually,
you are stuck on your computer trading on every pip move.
Now, Mark is an ex-broker with extensive knowledge, experience and contacts in the Forex industry. He does not know of ANY successful trader who trades like that. None of his extensive set of Forex broker friends and acquaintances know of ANY successful trader who trades like that. A successful trader who trades like that,
seems to be as common as a dodo bird.
4. In instances where you have trades that are running 100 ¨C 300++ pips, should you be looking at minor retractments to enter the market again and increase you¡¯re the number of lots in the trade? I usually hit the market with my standard size. If I get up around the 200 pips I sometimes will hit it with another 50% load. (It also depends if there are any "fallen soldiers" nearby, waiting to be picked up).
5. This is a great email that requires no comment
Yesterday¡¯s trading consummated the successful retirement of 3 fallen soldiers who fell beginning with the selloff from Feb 5 (trying to catch the falling dagger from 4750 down). Anyway, employing the A/H yet again to recapture temporarily lost pips my wife commented to me that ¡°I am no longer a DICK to be around when I am
trading¡what has happened?¡± You have to understand she only has a loose grip on trading dynamics, with the emotion and all, and has never liked being around me when I am engaged. I wish she would have taken a camera video or something for me to punctuate her stance. Well, it dawned on me that ever so slowly since the formation of the group, my demeanor while in a position has gone from nervousness and fear to an actual "business as usual" attitude. She is an excellent barometer of my emotion, and to hear her speak that way is another priceless moment in my trading journal since you formed our group. My thanks again to you and the A/H strategy¡it seems I am no longer a DICK. HAHAHA!
So, have an excellent weekend shopping with Mrs Jacko...I'm think I'm going to try my hand at carrying the bags for Mrs ...... tomorrow
6. Hello, I had a question about "buying dips" and "selling rallies". I wanted to see if you could help me understand what type of thing you look for in a "dip" or "rally" before placing an order? As from earlier this month, I am now looking at 50-100 pips down from most recent high
I am always afraid that I am going to buy into a dip too early, or that it won't be a dip at all, it will be a reversal and just keep going downward and vice versa with rallies. Thats the risk of trading... that's the risk you have to acknowledge and be prepared for (so you are not "surprised" and then panic)
This makes it hard for me to gauge risk appropriately and how large of a sufficient stop-loss to use. Do you just wait until you feel it is too overstretched at the moment, yes based on intuition and experience, but again you will NEVER be 100% correct. (Accepting that you will NEVER be 100% correct is a "breakthrough" revelation) or are there other, more precise factors? No, charts simply allow you to use the same intuition and experience to see something in a "pictorial" sense
I would greatly appreciate any help or advice that you could give, as I still have a fear of being "right, but too early". There is your problem...fear. Again, you need to understand that you will NEVER be 100% correct
I know that I won't be able to buy the exact bottom (unless out of luck) or sell the exact top of a rally, but I just need to hone my aim and timing more and know what to look for. It (trading) is not a question of being correct...it is an issue of being profitable
Thanks again
7. I was also wondring if you have a favorite place to get up to speed on fundamentals I like to read quality newspapers from UK and Asia...they are more "balanced" and take a wider view of the news. But please note, I like to know the fundamentals for a bigger view of the market, but I trade off the charts.
8. I've been doing some analysis on the weekly euro dollar chart and below is what I came up with:
1. The market have been sideways for some 12 weeks or more Yes (coincidentally about the same time as I started the group...LOL)
2. Last Friday (22nd Feb) the market weekly close was 14830 which is above the Fib 76% at 14810 from 14967 (the highest, 23 Nov 2007) to 14312 (20 Dec 2007). What real relevance is 76% Fib ?
3. This is the second weekly close at or above 14830 in 14 weeks the last time was week begining 19 Nov 2007and the market went on all time high of 14967 Interesting ...but statistically too small a sample size to be relevant
4. We've had 12 weeks of prices not having a weekly close at or above 14810 Interesting but again it doesn't necessarily mean anthing except that we've had 12 weeks of prices not having a weekly close at or above 14810
5. I think you are right the buying pressure is building up with 3 days of professional buying pressure last week for a major move up, whether it drives through the all time high we'll have to see, but I think it will at least test the all time high. This market will blow through 1.5000 very soon
I have a habit of analysing things to the nth degree whether it makes sense or not. You are looking to analyse a random set of events and make a sequential logical order from the randomness...You will continue to be frustrated...Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible Please let me know if my analysis is adding any value or not and you are ok with me sending such emails. I am fine with you sending me the emails. I like to see your thought patterns because I have been there, done that...discarded it...became a successful investor. I am looking forward to seeing you go through
those same stages (discarded it...became a successful investor.)
Emails
1. With the new 100 TSL rule, does one wait for another 100 point drop before setting the AH rebuy entry or still wait only for a 50 point drop as with the old 50 TSL? Thanks for your help, 50 pip drop only
2. Hi Jacko,I can now dedicate my full time to trading; and I am still in the process of deciding what type of trader I really want to be.I enjoy the action of the 5 minute charts.I also enjoy the relaxed pace of the longer term charts and letting a substantial profit materialise over a matter of days. Do both...just compartmentalise your thinking...and your accounts
Did you start out trading on the daily and 4 hours charts? No. I started forex trading on shorter time frames but it was unsustainable (for me). I didn't want to "work" that much...and neither did my wife (want me to "work" that much)
3. Now that we are out of the market, I am eager to get back in. And this is where I think you can help most. I keep looking for new entries and even different pairs to get back into the market and I'm currently impatient and frustrated at missing the recent move above 4800. Can you please offer your wisdom and guidance to me, so that I don't do something rash and jump into a trade hoping I don't miss this big move? I think its times like this which test us and either make or break a trader. You guidance is most appreciated.
It is a realization that you will NOT get every trade. Even if you had been in every trade mentioned above, your greed would kick in. You would start to say that you should have traded every shorter term waves within those trade. Then you would be trying to trade the smaller short term waves within those trades. Eventually,
you are stuck on your computer trading on every pip move.
Now, Mark is an ex-broker with extensive knowledge, experience and contacts in the Forex industry. He does not know of ANY successful trader who trades like that. None of his extensive set of Forex broker friends and acquaintances know of ANY successful trader who trades like that. A successful trader who trades like that,
seems to be as common as a dodo bird.
4. In instances where you have trades that are running 100 ¨C 300++ pips, should you be looking at minor retractments to enter the market again and increase you¡¯re the number of lots in the trade? I usually hit the market with my standard size. If I get up around the 200 pips I sometimes will hit it with another 50% load. (It also depends if there are any "fallen soldiers" nearby, waiting to be picked up).
5. This is a great email that requires no comment
Yesterday¡¯s trading consummated the successful retirement of 3 fallen soldiers who fell beginning with the selloff from Feb 5 (trying to catch the falling dagger from 4750 down). Anyway, employing the A/H yet again to recapture temporarily lost pips my wife commented to me that ¡°I am no longer a DICK to be around when I am
trading¡what has happened?¡± You have to understand she only has a loose grip on trading dynamics, with the emotion and all, and has never liked being around me when I am engaged. I wish she would have taken a camera video or something for me to punctuate her stance. Well, it dawned on me that ever so slowly since the formation of the group, my demeanor while in a position has gone from nervousness and fear to an actual "business as usual" attitude. She is an excellent barometer of my emotion, and to hear her speak that way is another priceless moment in my trading journal since you formed our group. My thanks again to you and the A/H strategy¡it seems I am no longer a DICK. HAHAHA!
So, have an excellent weekend shopping with Mrs Jacko...I'm think I'm going to try my hand at carrying the bags for Mrs ...... tomorrow
6. Hello, I had a question about "buying dips" and "selling rallies". I wanted to see if you could help me understand what type of thing you look for in a "dip" or "rally" before placing an order? As from earlier this month, I am now looking at 50-100 pips down from most recent high
I am always afraid that I am going to buy into a dip too early, or that it won't be a dip at all, it will be a reversal and just keep going downward and vice versa with rallies. Thats the risk of trading... that's the risk you have to acknowledge and be prepared for (so you are not "surprised" and then panic)
This makes it hard for me to gauge risk appropriately and how large of a sufficient stop-loss to use. Do you just wait until you feel it is too overstretched at the moment, yes based on intuition and experience, but again you will NEVER be 100% correct. (Accepting that you will NEVER be 100% correct is a "breakthrough" revelation) or are there other, more precise factors? No, charts simply allow you to use the same intuition and experience to see something in a "pictorial" sense
I would greatly appreciate any help or advice that you could give, as I still have a fear of being "right, but too early". There is your problem...fear. Again, you need to understand that you will NEVER be 100% correct
I know that I won't be able to buy the exact bottom (unless out of luck) or sell the exact top of a rally, but I just need to hone my aim and timing more and know what to look for. It (trading) is not a question of being correct...it is an issue of being profitable
Thanks again
7. I was also wondring if you have a favorite place to get up to speed on fundamentals I like to read quality newspapers from UK and Asia...they are more "balanced" and take a wider view of the news. But please note, I like to know the fundamentals for a bigger view of the market, but I trade off the charts.
8. I've been doing some analysis on the weekly euro dollar chart and below is what I came up with:
1. The market have been sideways for some 12 weeks or more Yes (coincidentally about the same time as I started the group...LOL)
2. Last Friday (22nd Feb) the market weekly close was 14830 which is above the Fib 76% at 14810 from 14967 (the highest, 23 Nov 2007) to 14312 (20 Dec 2007). What real relevance is 76% Fib ?
3. This is the second weekly close at or above 14830 in 14 weeks the last time was week begining 19 Nov 2007and the market went on all time high of 14967 Interesting ...but statistically too small a sample size to be relevant
4. We've had 12 weeks of prices not having a weekly close at or above 14810 Interesting but again it doesn't necessarily mean anthing except that we've had 12 weeks of prices not having a weekly close at or above 14810
5. I think you are right the buying pressure is building up with 3 days of professional buying pressure last week for a major move up, whether it drives through the all time high we'll have to see, but I think it will at least test the all time high. This market will blow through 1.5000 very soon
I have a habit of analysing things to the nth degree whether it makes sense or not. You are looking to analyse a random set of events and make a sequential logical order from the randomness...You will continue to be frustrated...Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible Please let me know if my analysis is adding any value or not and you are ok with me sending such emails. I am fine with you sending me the emails. I like to see your thought patterns because I have been there, done that...discarded it...became a successful investor. I am looking forward to seeing you go through
those same stages (discarded it...became a successful investor.)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 61
It is 1.45am NY time Tuesday February 26 and the market is at 1.4816 ... a "huge" 10 pips higher than almost 24 hours ago.
It is 1.45am NY time Tuesday February 26 and the market is at 1.4816 ... a "huge" 10 pips higher than almost 24 hours ago.
Well, I thought that 4795 was going to be a goner in NY trading yesterday, but it held the line, bouncing off 4795 a couple of times. I am still not convinced that all the weakness has been shaken out yet. I am still happy to wait for the market to come to me at 1.4750 or less
I will be updating this regularly later near the London and US opens
Edit 3.00am NY time London is about to open and the market has dropped from 4825 to 4785 in the last 30 minutes. Market low at 4776. Still more weakness to flush out?
Edit 3.15am NY time No need to rush to buy this market. I will be looking at buying at under 4750. Probably late in London trade and just before US opens.
Edit 5.50am NY time Well the ifo report out of Germany lit a fuse under the Euro. (It shows the inherent weakness of the USD / strength of the Euro, that a basic ifo report which was just marginally better than expected can fire up the Euro so fast and so far.... the USD is very sick.) I will have to wait a little longer for my buy. Euro starting to drop back from the overreaction now. Market has reached 4878 and has dropped marginally to 4864
Edit 7.35am NY time The US dollar is surprising me with its continued weakness. Every time it shows even the slightest attempt at a fight back, it just gets trampled on. It is even having trouble making even a feeble attempt at showing strength. The US dollar is one very sick puppy at the moment.
The dollar is almost starting to look as if it is about to totally capitulate. As I said a couple of days ago (Message 56) ; "Take care...we are building to a BIG move soon...when the market pops 1.4950 all hell is going to break loose....But I could be wrong!!!!"
However, having said that, I don't intend to jump in here (even though it is very tempting...but whenever I feel that the market is running away from me, I have found that the market then starts to show some reaction...but the US dollar is showing amazing weakness at these levels (at almost 1.49). I think that the US market may try to reverse this movement when it opens in 25 minutes.
The dollar is almost starting to look as if it is about to totally capitulate. As I said a couple of days ago (Message 56) ; "Take care...we are building to a BIG move soon...when the market pops 1.4950 all hell is going to break loose....But I could be wrong!!!!"
However, having said that, I don't intend to jump in here (even though it is very tempting...but whenever I feel that the market is running away from me, I have found that the market then starts to show some reaction...but the US dollar is showing amazing weakness at these levels (at almost 1.49). I think that the US market may try to reverse this movement when it opens in 25 minutes.
Edit 9.05am NY time The German ifo comes in 1% better than expected and the Euro rallies over 100 pips....The US PPI comes in 250% better than expected (1.0% versus 0.4 %) and the US dollar is back to where it was within 10 minutes... !!!
Emails
1.
One thing you mentioned:
I was also wondring if you have a favorite place to get up to speed on fundamentals I like to read quality newspapers from UK and Asia...they are more "balanced" and take a wider view of the news. But please note, I like to know the fundamentals for a bigger view of the market, but I trade off the charts.
I know you trade off the charts, but... and here's the big but. We're in an uptrend now, but when the big ranging starting happening at the tail end of November, and we saw temporary strength of the dollar pushing prices down to 1.4306 just before Xmas, you looked at the trend, and said:
"The question I keep asking myself is : What major underlying fundamental issue has caused a significant strengthening of the US dollar ??? And I can't see anything !!"
And lo, you were right. That bit I'm not surprised about! But looking at the weekly charts, it looked like it was rolling over in much the same was as the tail end of 2004 at the time. Presumably in this instance, it was the fundamentals that kept you from thinking that we weren't about to enter into a downtrend? Yes, I wanted
much more confirmation from the charts that the trend was reversing. I would have been reasonably sanguine about it being a correction, but I was nowhere even close to calling a reverse of the trend. (The US is in serious trouble...my personal opinion is that when the USD blows through 1.5000, the resistance to get back below be very difficult...it will take years to get the USD seriously and significantly back under 1.5000. It is not just an issue of fixing the financial problems....the US has to try to get the rest of the world to start again believing the US government, its regulators and the Wall St financiers...and that problem will take years to resolve). As Americans we may not understand that...but simply said, the world does not trust America anymore. (This is just a statement of fact...no political connotation intended)
So is it fair to say that had there been indications of serious trouble in Europe you might have thought differently? Possibly, but Europe is not in the same situation as the US....Foreign governments of all persuasions (Asian, Arab, European) no longer believe the US....they have simply lost patience and faith with the US
financial regulators and US financial institutions... And also, have you ever got the major trend wrong since you've been trading forex? (I say wrong - I really should mean premature and/or late)? Well, I didn't pick the exact bottom of the turn in late 2005 but I was close enough for me to be happy...LOL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 62
It is 11.45pm NY time Tuesday 26 February and the market is at 1.5000 (again)
Live updates below
Well 1.5000 certainly blew the doors off. I have been inundated with emails from some of you who trade more aggressively than I do and am really chuffed with your progress. (All of you have been too generous in thanking me for something that you have done yourself). Some of you are sitting there with trades from 4650, 4750, and 4800. I think the biggest complement is that while you are trading aggressively, you are trading in a much more disciplined manner. No more attempts to outsmart the market by going short. No more trading on every technical indicator available to man. Just trading with the trend.
As outlined in the email below, I have made an 18% return in 3.5 months., which is is about 52.5% annual. (The actual is a little better). Not bad, but could do better. Mark is beside me laughing, saying that most Funds would give their left arm for those level of results. (January was a very bad month for me personally and also very distracting from a trading perspective... No loss but no win)
However, the more aggressive and disciplined of you are showing far superior results to mine. The most exceptional traders are the ones who have been aggressive but played by the rules. They have NOT seen me as a signal service. They have made their own decisions based on the information in the blog and other sources. They have NOT entered ANY shorts. They are trigger happy but have become more disciplined in not wanting to buy (or sell !!) every twitch. I am seeing some extraordinary traders developing. The most encouraging aspect of this, is that ALL of the group can do exactly the same.
I will be back for the US opening....and look out you youngsters. The old bull has been challenged by some newbies/ young bulls....the competition will heat up...LOL
Edit 8.35am NY Time This market was feeding on itself during yesterday's trading. I expect to see a sizable correction over the next couple of days. Also, I would not be surprised to see another intervention by the ECB soon/next week, but it probably will be in the latter stages of an Asian trading session, just before Europe opens. (the quietest time).
Edit 9.35 am NY Time It is worth looking at email 2 below...if anyone thinks that they are not performing as well as someone else in the group, then you can take comfort from knowing that you can modify/accelerate/adjust your trading style AT ANY TIME YOU WANT. That is the benefit of trading...it is you (and no-one else) that needs to have the determination to improve the performance of your trading. You can look at your trading and say "what do I need to do to tweak my trading to get to a better level.?" Then you can implement that change immediately. Tomorrow is another trading day that has no memory of all your past trades.
Interestingly, after seeing some of the trading decisions of the newbie traders, I have also come to the realisation that I, myself, may have been looking at too deep a discount to get into some trades. (That has been the one major distinguishing factor between some of the most successful new traders and myself) Also, I am really enjoying the group at the moment, some of you have motivated me again after a truly awful January for me personally speaking. Trading is a business that is based on self-motivation ...so to all of you, I say thanks.
Edit 10.15 am NY time. There seems to be no stopping the fall of the USD at the moment...we are witnessing the demise of the USD as the world's foremost currency. Foreign Governments are bailing. How long will the Arab countries and Hong Kong maintain their pegs to the USD (Shame on our US Govt, the Fed and Wall St...Shame on us for allowing them to do it)
You can buy "at will" in this market with a 100 pip stop.
1. Here is an interesting email of one of the first group who has done an audit of the trading to date (I have edited some of it for brevity).
Dear Jacko, I dont know how to thank you enough for letting us see how you trade... I have just re-read every post on the blog and plotted every entry and every exit. It has been an exercise I would recommend to anyone (although it took quite a few hours). It has shaken so many of my beliefs about trading, and given me three months of perspective in just a hours.
.................................
Dear Jacko, I dont know how to thank you enough for letting us see how you trade... I have just re-read every post on the blog and plotted every entry and every exit. It has been an exercise I would recommend to anyone (although it took quite a few hours). It has shaken so many of my beliefs about trading, and given me three months of perspective in just a hours.
.................................
If I had traded 2% of my account on every trade you listed my account would be up around 18% in 3.5 months (fantastic and amazing to me)! And all this was done in a sideways market, with some very unusual negative trades (ECB comments), with the subtle influences from all of us, your family concerns and Christmas all thrown in. AND this all came from trading one pair (not 20)!
So all the "stuff" I have been doing feels much like wasted time and effort. I have looked at so many ForexFactory systems, so many indicators, so many theories (eg elliott wave), various short time frame systems, on dozens of pairs, forking out $thousands on software and studied price action until my pin bars were like
match-sticks holding up my eyelids into the wee hours of the morning - and made no money.
Then you come along and say:
1. See a long term trend in a currency that takes a lot of money to move around (eurusd).
2. Wait for a pull back (ie the chance of the trade going south is as low as you might be reasonably able to guess).
3. Be prepared to miss lots of trades and give back lots of profit (we had trades we closed at 6,7,12 and 14 pips that went 56, 57, 62 and 64 pips in our favour first).
4. Use only one exit (the TSL) and that will make your losses small and give you a chance to make some of your wins big.
5. After you have some pips in the bank, start to rack up the leverage.
So all the "stuff" I have been doing feels much like wasted time and effort. I have looked at so many ForexFactory systems, so many indicators, so many theories (eg elliott wave), various short time frame systems, on dozens of pairs, forking out $thousands on software and studied price action until my pin bars were like
match-sticks holding up my eyelids into the wee hours of the morning - and made no money.
Then you come along and say:
1. See a long term trend in a currency that takes a lot of money to move around (eurusd).
2. Wait for a pull back (ie the chance of the trade going south is as low as you might be reasonably able to guess).
3. Be prepared to miss lots of trades and give back lots of profit (we had trades we closed at 6,7,12 and 14 pips that went 56, 57, 62 and 64 pips in our favour first).
4. Use only one exit (the TSL) and that will make your losses small and give you a chance to make some of your wins big.
5. After you have some pips in the bank, start to rack up the leverage.
Then you summed it all up this week when you said "Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible"
away. BUT. and here comes the mental torment.....I have invested so much time and money into systems and software and indicators and 'stuff' that I 'WANT those things to be successful". I "WANT" to get a return on all that time and energy. Your trading style is like a slap in my face. "Hey stupid, follow the trend....just take a low risk guess (like wait for an exhaustion spike down, then wait for a retracement up, followed by a failed test of the low. Then ENTER. Whack on a trailing stop and take your wife shopping")
I've been successful at everything I've done in adult life. And its come from working hard to find out what 'makes a difference' and doing more of that; and finding out what doesn't make a difference, and cutting it out. Re-reading 3 months of your thoughts and trades has shown me that 99% of the time, energy and money I have spent on trading has been doing stuff that 'doesnt make a difference'.
So on the one hand I say thank you. On the other hand, I feel like I've been stripped naked and had my house washed away and everything I've worked hard for has been/is now gone.
Will I trade Jacko's way? I dont know yet. It still feels too simple and I would be embarrassed if anyone knew that's what I did for a living. I think I need to take a few days away from trading and stew over these words -
"Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible"
.
By the way - this has been the best $500 I have ever spent. I would have paid $5000 to have a successful trader share 3 months of their trading with me. I am truly grateful (and tormented).
"Trading is an attitude to risk and return...It is not about finding a set of sequential steps that is 100% infallible"
.
By the way - this has been the best $500 I have ever spent. I would have paid $5000 to have a successful trader share 3 months of their trading with me. I am truly grateful (and tormented).
2. Hi Jacko, The Eur/usd has finally penetrated the 1.5000 mark, iam not in any trade at the moment, but i am glad because i stuck to my entry point, which was missed by17pips. What makes me happy is the discipline that ilearnt from you.(if your entry point is not reachedand the market shoots up leaving you behind, there isalways another trade around the corner).I am also proud of my self now because most of thetime i analyse the market before i open the blog, and sometimes i will have the same analysis as you, likefrom the last entry point at 1.4750.
Thanks for your kind words but you will truly also develop the skills I have over time with perseverance. Some of the best traders in the group are newbies with no bad habits, but a strong desire NOT to repeat mistakes every one else makes. They wanted to learn a way that works straight up...AND THEN add a bit more
time and effort to the cause (trading) than I do. They were also more aggressive in their trading but not silly about it.
They have just treated my method as the basis of their trading, asked me a couple of pertinent questions (I received very few emails from each of them) which have been later discussed in the blog, they have not diverted from the strategy and have been more prepared to buy without waiting for as big a dip as me.
Thanks for your kind words but you will truly also develop the skills I have over time with perseverance. Some of the best traders in the group are newbies with no bad habits, but a strong desire NOT to repeat mistakes every one else makes. They wanted to learn a way that works straight up...AND THEN add a bit more
time and effort to the cause (trading) than I do. They were also more aggressive in their trading but not silly about it.
They have just treated my method as the basis of their trading, asked me a couple of pertinent questions (I received very few emails from each of them) which have been later discussed in the blog, they have not diverted from the strategy and have been more prepared to buy without waiting for as big a dip as me.
3. This is an email that is self explanatory. It discusses the TSL vs a discretionary close
Aha, cheers for your reply Jacko, and I'll add my thanks too.
The one most important thing I've learnt in this recent trade is that importance of not closing prematurely.
Since I dropped the trading size down to a less finger-biting level, I've been more relaxed. And rather than close down the trade at obvious S&R levels, or in response to when the market was looking heavy, I just left it.
Ever the pessimist, I was certain of near death. But I've now counted four separate occasions when I would have closed the trade, but didn't. And in doing so I've stayed alive since 1.4636. And the market's still looking a bit heavy but I won't touch the trade less it hits the TSL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 63
It is 1.30am NY time Thursday 28 February and the market is at 1.5100.
Nothing to report. All quiet in Asian trade so far...may breach 1.5100 on downside soon
Will be back just after US opens. Have a dinner appointment with a head of overseas based brokerage firm (after one or two of my new best traders,maybe??)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 64
It s 11.45pm NY time Thursday 29 February and the market is at 1.5184.
Well we started dinner at 8pm local time and we went right through to 4.30am this morning. My head is hammering from all the red wine, but it was easily one of the most productive and informative (and enjoyable) nights that I have had for long time.
We were talking and watching the markets unfold. The following were copied from the wires as they came out
President Bush said Thursday that the country is not headed into a recession and, despite expressing concern about slowing economic growth, rejected for now any additional stimulus efforts. "We've acted robstly," he said. Much laughter, then the Euro rose again...clearly the market didn't believe him either.
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - President George Bush repeated his strong dollar policy today as he was asked about the US economy showing increased reliance on exports which are aided by a weak dollar."We believe in a strong dollar policy," (hoots of laughter) Bush told reporters at the White House, adding that the value of the dollar will ultimately be reflected in "the ability of the economy to grow economically."Earlier in the day the Commerce Department said the US economy grew at an 0.6 pct annual pace in the last three months of 2007, the slowest pace since 2002. The growth was boosted by rising exports, which added 0.9 pct to GDP growth.
Dow Jones notes on Bernankes live speech to the Senate: EURO-DOLLAR: $1.5199 the high, $1.5180 the current level. Traders still scrambling to figure out what happened. Some vaguely point to Bernanke remarks on dollar or possible small bank failures, some to fixing needs, but not clear yet what the catalyst was for the higher euro. The foreign governments and investors (both foreign and US) simply don't believe anything Bernanke says anymore
1624 GMT [Dow Jones] "We are not seeing any significant shifts out of dollars" by major foreign holders, Bernanke says in comments about the attractiveness of the U.S. as a place to invest. From 1.4438 to 1.5199 in 21 days !!!! When this thing hit 1.6000 what will he say then?
The above statements just show how totally out of synch our Govt and Fed Reserve is with the feelings of the rest of the world. And the obvious result is demonstrated in the USD being hammered.
This will also continue to hammer the Dow and Nasdaq as investors sell out of US assets (because their value in non $ terms falls).
Investors (both US and foreign) simply don't believe or trust what the Govt and Fed are saying in relation to the economy and are scoring their USD report cards accordingly..
This will also continue to hammer the Dow and Nasdaq as investors sell out of US assets (because their value in non $ terms falls).
Investors (both US and foreign) simply don't believe or trust what the Govt and Fed are saying in relation to the economy and are scoring their USD report cards accordingly..
I maintain my previous recommendation in Message 62:
You can buy "at will" in this market with a 100 pip stop.
That is, buy the Euro because this USD is one sick puppy, and I am starting to doubt that even the ECB thinks that it can stop the rot. The ECB may decide that throwing money at the dollar (buying USD and selling Euro in an attempt to lower the Euro) is just a waste of money.
We are witnessing the demise of the USD as the world's foremost currency.
That is, buy the Euro because this USD is one sick puppy, and I am starting to doubt that even the ECB thinks that it can stop the rot. The ECB may decide that throwing money at the dollar (buying USD and selling Euro in an attempt to lower the Euro) is just a waste of money.
We are witnessing the demise of the USD as the world's foremost currency.
It is 12. 45pm local time (friday) Am going back to bed for the rest of the day...will answer any outstanding emails over the weekend. (I will never drink red wine again...LOL
PS I am a proud American...and a swinging voter....so I am not pro Democrat... I would be appalled at whatever persuasion of Government was doing this to our country and our reputation.
Emails
1. Wayne,Nice move in the Euro recently, I was lucky enough to catch it at 1.4650, but that was more luck than trading skill. But I am still learning Good trade
With the fairly quick rise in the EURO from the lows of 1.4450 on 9/2 to the highs we are seeing today 1.5050++ 27/2, should we be looking for a significant 50% Fib retractment to the 1.4750 level. Possible, but I seriously doubt it. Or is there just too much momentum behind this move Yes , and any pull back will be later in March? Anything is possible, but 1.5000 is going to be tough...I don't think that this is an "economic" issue...I think that it is a "trust and honesty" issue and it won't go away quickly I can easily see 1.5500+ ....I can't see 1.4500, and even 1.4700 seems unlikely in the near future
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