MESSAGE FROM JACKO 65
It is 2.30am NY time Monday March 3 and the market is at 1.5215
Market is still holding up well. I expect to see some reaction this week which will give us more long term buying opportunities.
Will add to this after London opens
Ok, the new month blog had me confused for a time.
Edit 4.15am NY time Market has fallen to 1.5161 but still has not hit our 100 pip TSLs. High is 1.5238 so TSLs are set at 1.5138. This market was a little excited last week so the more conservative of you may wish to
1. lock in some profits now (at around 1.5170) or
2. by looking to reduce your TSL to 50 pips AFTER the next rally above 1.5200 (meaning that you would move
your TSL to 1.5188 AFTER it has rallied above 1.5200).
3. The more aggressive/patient traders may prefer to just let the trade run its course.
Edit 7.45am NY time Market is at 1.5191. The above three (3) options still applies.
Edit 10.00am NY time Market is at 5264...The patient traders win again.
Edit 19.35pm NY time Market has moved to 1.5275 then fallen 100 pips to stop us out at 1.5175 (Others may have taken option 2 and got out at the better price of 1.5225).
Asia is usually quiet...might take a breather now that all positions are closed and be back for London open
See more emails below
Emails
1. I was really encouraged by yesterdays post. And I thought it was about timeto give you a update on my learning progress. I am up by a nice 405 pips. Good I have been tempted to trade more aggressive than you. Willing to take more entry's but didn't because I thought it weren't the right levels, as they where not confirmed by you.I now have the confidence to trade a bit more aggressive with the A-Hstrategy as my insurance policy. But only with the trend. Yes !!!One of the main things I need to work on now is to not act on the urge tomanually close out trades. I have missed some nice extra pips on that. Too emotionally draining I have taken some short trades against you, and where successful, but now I have come to the realization that it is more relaxing to go with the trend. Yes, most people come to that realisation Because I find that I have a need to monitor the trades against the trendmore closely. So I made one of the most important decision I have made uptill now in my still short trading career. I will not trade against thetrend any more! A very smart decision
I have been looking for the big bargains as well and have mist out on a few good entry points. But the most important thing I have learned is that if that happens, that I don't chase the market and enter in on a bad level and get stopped out by the corrective drops. You are learning this quickly!!!!
Thanks for sharing your experience! This is really the best money I have ever spend on any training. And than to realize that it is just everything by the books, no fancy indicators! Yes, but everyone always seems to want to re-invent the wheel and then use complicated indicators to make a square wheel look round !!!
2. Perhaps when Obama becomes president, some people will give the US some trust back, LOL. Maybe, but they would want to see some form of pulling back the dishonesty and greed of Wall St ...and I can't see that happening. What will happen is that the rest of the world will start to distance itself from Wall St and do their deals with more reputable financial centres
3. So today, I finally entered with my stop-loss and watched the market go 60 pips against me - oh well...... it's coming back around now :)
I think I'm learning to lose my fear That is the first step...getting rid of the emotions - beginning to remind myself that the trend is not dead, No nor likely to die any time soon, definitely not and that even if I'm wrong, A-H should help me out. It always does
So I'm finally in, and I even managed to stop watching the screen for most of the day too! Thats the second step...don't get fixated and addicted and worse, mesmerised by the screen
4. Now that the EU has seen 1.5000, is there any way back? Not really...maybe a retracement to shake out some traders between 1.4900 and 1.5000 sometime down the track
Where would you see us getting back into the trade? With the pair now being an attractive carry trade, whos going to sell out with all these lovely pips generating a nice interest profit? Exactly
5. Like you I see some weakness coming in today based on the breach of the hourly trend line 4779: 26 Feb, 5018,: 27 Feb and 5113: 28 Feb. Also, Trichet speaking at 2.15pm ( UK time). I think It'll go down to around 15000 round number and 50% from 4870: 26 Feb to 5143: 27 Feb, on 4 hourly chart. This down move will push the Implied Volatility for the EURUSD futures contract to 100% like it did on 23 Jan and 11 Feb. After which the market went higher. So next couple of days I see it shooting up. Off course, I could be wrong.
WAaaaaaay too complex for me.....I just think that the market will continue its long term trend and keep going UP. Of course, there will be corrections but trend is definitely still UP.
6. I guess you must keep some sort of journal where you record your transactions. If you have an electronic version, and it's ok with you, can you please send me an empty template. I am after the format, headings, columns and rows that you might be using.
LOL ... I use a little brown note book:
Date Buys on one side, Sells in the middle, pips (+ or -) on right side
7. As for my trading, being in your group has done wonders for me. I have been risking more than 5% per trade
Be very careful !!! and my account has grown to just over the 200% mark in the last 3.5 months ! I am not recommending other people follow me but such was my faith in your method and your trades that I was willing to take the calculated risk of trading at a much bigger percentage just to build up my small capital fast. I have now cut it right down to 5% maximum risk per trade. Thats better! I am also starting to do my own trades based on your methodology and I have been doing well so far. I hope to do this fulltime soon. Excellent So a big thank you Jacko for the help you have given us all in finding our way in this forex jungle. Like you said, it's all so simple if you just leave your brains by the door! LOL...yes, it is embarrassing to say but it is true
8. Are you still looking at an entry price of 1.4750. Not in the short term, but it will be a screaming bargain if it gets there...if it does I will be backing the truck up to buy everything in sight I've been looking at the charts and even with ECB intervention, it would appear that there is very strong support at 1.4850. Yes Just wanted to hear what you were thinking now. The international community is now paying much closer attention to US news releases and Bernanke. This is an issue of "trust and honesty" of the American financial system...Wall St has done some terrible things, and it will take the rest of the world (who were loaded up with all this toxic stuff) a long time to forgive us.
You also have to remember that the credit crisis in the US was started because US financial houses would not trade extend credit to each other...because THEY DIDN'T EVEN TRUST EACH OTHER !!!!
9. Hi Jacko,how are you........You wrote in massage 65:WAaaaaaay too complex for me.....I just think that the market will continue its long term trend and keep going UP So far its been correcting 70 to 140 pips,do you think its going to stay in the same range or we shall see much deeper pullback ? I don't think so (in the short term)...this is a major crisis of confidence and trust in the US financial system Thanks in advice,your mentoring is something special...Igor Thanks
10. Hi Jacko,I was stopped out at 1.4982. a couple days ago. Oh no. I had tightened up the SL to 65 pips Oh no.
when we got to 1.5000. Ooops.Oh no. Still, an excellent trade and I am quite pleased. It seems even your worst
student is making progress. Oh YES !!!
Patience now is a real problem. Now that you know the problem, you can fix it...let the trades play themselves out.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 66
It is 3.15am NY time Tuesday March 4 and the market is at 1.5190.
Live updates below
As`stated in my latest update yesterday, (NY time), the market moved to 1.5275 then fell 100 pips to stop us out at 1.5175
Others may have taken option 2 and got out at the better price of 1.5225....gnash, gnash, gnashing of teeth...
if this keeps up, I will have no teeth left...LOL...and, yes, I DO have all my teeth, thank you !!!
I am now out of the market. I am rested and refreshed and well fed after a fabulous Indian lunch, and ready to get back in. Remember, the market is not going anywhere. It is there whenever YOU want to be in it. The key issue is not to become a "jaded" trader.
If you have not "savoured" your victory in the market yet, I suggest you do. Before you make another trade, I suggest that you reward yourself. Take your lady (or man) out for a nice lunch or dinner. My mentor always had a nice steak dinner when he had a big victory in the stock market. It was peanuts compared to what he made, but it was a symbolic punctuation mark on a job well done.
However I am looking for an entry point. I want it to be lower than where I got out ...(1.5175) and I am looking for a bargain. Probably around 1.5100. Will keep updating as the day progresses
Edit 4.45am NY time Market not doing much. Is sitting at 1.5188. Waiting for some direction from NY later in the day. I have placed an order at 1.5100. With a 100 pip SL.
Edit 7.55am NY time Market has slowly moved up to 5218. Goodness, they REALLY do not like the USD !!! It is becoming a pariah of currencies.
Edit 8.07am NY time Euro coming down in US trading perhaps? Early indications are weakness, but the USD has a massive problem.
Edit 10.20am NY time. The USD has a massive problem alright....The question is;"who is going to buy the USD/ sell the Euro ?. The Europeans are furious with the US for not attempting to strengthen its dollar. If America is not going to support the USD, the Europeans are not going to either. So who is going to support the USD?
Nobody from the look of it.
The only possible respite would be if the Fed says that they will not cut interest rates again this month.
But my personal opinion is that US interest rates are going all the way down to 1%...because that is what Wall St wants ! But it will seriously and irreparably damage the USD in the long term.
Edit 10.40am NY time. Bernanke and Kohn are both speaking. The more they speak, the higher the Euro goes.
These Fed Reserve bankers have no credibility left in Europe, Asia and even the US. They are certainly not interested in a "strong dollar policy"
Edit 10.55am NY time. Market is at 1.5234 Market is HOT !! But there should be another correction break like we saw yesterday. This charging Euro could be unsustainable today. A technical bounce down is close.
Edit 11.10am NY time. Moved my buy order to 1.5150. With a 100 pip SL.
Edit 12.01pm NY time. Well....Correction bounce was very close. Market has dropped nicely to 1.5187 and has now rebounded to 1.5205. I think I might get my 1.5150's after lunch NY time.
Edit 12.10pm NY time. Off to bed. Currently 1.10am local time. Back tomorrow morning (Asian time) to see how my trades went.
Edit 9.00pm NY time. Market is at 1.5198 (again). I think I will definitely get my 5150's (or lower) sometime soon. Now that I am awake I will be looking to get in better than 5150 if I can.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 67
It is 8.45am NY time Wednesday March 5 and the market is at 1.5233.
I apologise for being late but what started out as a casual look at a Hong Kong property at 11.00am this morning turned into an all day saga and negotiation till only 30 minutes ago, but the good news is that it looks as though we have secured the property.
My 5150's got picked up and I am in with a 100 pip TSL.
We now just play the trade out.
Again, I apologise for being late.
Edit 10.20am NY time. Market is at 1.5212 The market has peaked at 1.5240. TSL set at 1.5140. Maximum exposure is 10 pips. After a long and tiring day, I am off to bed to relax. Trailing Stop Loss is in place and the trade is now playing itself out. One of my brokers has "guaranteed" to call Mark if TSL needs to be adjusted (upwards).
Emails
Jacko, Would you explain please the 5150 limit order? Where you looking at an approx 50% retrace from support
of 2/28 to high on 3/3? NO this was a pure fundamental trade...I just could see that it had a correction bounce down (the one that took me out at 5175) and i just felt that there was another in the wind... But I also felt that it would not bea strong one...
This market is really caning the USD. If this had been "normal" times I would have probably have been looking at
1.5000, but the USD is going through a seismic shift in sentiment. I had missed a couple of entries as it ran up and I decided to be more proactive. (The A-H would have got me out of trouble if I bought in too high... this market is going considerably higher)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 68
It is 1.15am NY time Thursday March 6 and the market is at 1.5294.
I am still in at 1.5150. The TSL has been adjusted to 1.5201 (1.5301 - 100 = 1.5201).
We have locked in a minimum 50 pips and the trade is now playing itself out.
Time to go out enjoy myself.
Edit 8.45am NY time Market has peaked at 1.5347. My TSL has now been adjusted to 5247. We have now locked in a minimum 97 pips and the trade is still playing it self out.
Edit 9.35am NY time Market has peaked at 1.5371. My TSL has now been adjusted to 5271. We have now locked in a minimum 121 pips and the trade is still playing it self out.
Boring but VERY profitable
Edit 11.00am NY time Mrs Jacko is calling me to bed ( :-) ). Back tomorrow.
Am looking for a point to, maybe just maybe, add to my position in Asian trade tomorrow
Edit 9.00pm NY time Market has peaked at 1.5394. My TSL has now been adjusted to 5294. We have now locked in a minimum 144 pips and the trade is still playing it self out.
Emails
1. What are your feelings about NFP this friday? I am inclined to grab the present profits and wait till the report is over then reenter. everything has been pretty flat now for the last 9 hours, like everybody is waiting for this BS report so they can all make their knee jerk reaction trades after which the majority of the time the market simply resumes the previous trend. However with the current condition of the $ being so poor I am curious as to what the knee jerk will be this time. I am just letting this trade play itself out and not try to second guess the market. My stop is 100 pips
2. Lately i noticed that i can not pull the trigger. Place the trade as far in advance as possible As soon as market moves close to execution level i`m having hard time to enter trade,because i think i can get a better price.... and i`m on the side lines wondering at the end why the hell i didn't do it. So i think i hesitate too much ( undecided ) and to fix that problem i`m going to place resting orders ( so i don't have to make a decision during the trade ) Yes, it will also take the anxiety and stress away make the plan and trade the plan,what do you think? I`m sure it happened with most of us ,i mean hesitation and undecition. Yes, of course Cant wait to hear your comment,or may be some traders from the group can lighten me up..! Thanks in advice.
Place the orders and walk away and let them be filled whenever the market hits the price...as you get more confident, you may wish to be more "involved" in the actual decision. My wife often says to me that the trying to squeeze the extra few pips when buying is not worth the hassle of hanging around the computer trying to fine tune the entry. (And, in truth, I have to agree with her)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 69
It is 1.00am NY time Friday March 7 and the market is at 1.5394
see live updates below
Mrs Jacko has just surprised me (I love it when she does that !!) and told me that she has just booked a holiday to Australia for ten days, leaving on this Sunday.
I will be closing all my positions later in the day NY time, so that I can enjoy my time with "she who must be obeyed". (To those Australians in the group, we are flying to Darwin, then Ayres Rock, then Adelaide and then Perth before flying back home to Hong Kong. We are told that Darwin and Ayres rock are "frontier" places so we are not sure if we will have internet access).
Oh, look 1.5400 has just been breached. Now back under again.
Will be back for US open.
Edit 8.40am NY time Market has peaked at 1.5460. My TSL has now been adjusted to 5360. We have now locked in a minimum 210 pips and the trade is still playing it self out.
It will go higher today in US trade
Edit 9.10am NY time I am a seller at 1.5450. (Note This is to close my previous trade...) However, this is ONLY because I will be away for 10 days from this Sunday.. Please feel free to stay in the trade if you wish. I dont believe that we have seen the top yet.
Edit 9.35am NY time Ooops , it looks like I might be stopped out by Trailing Stop Loss at 5360. Have not been
hit yet but it is getting close.
Edit 9.38am NY time Stopped out
Edit 10.38am NY time I have been answering some emails from the last 24 hours and I notice that I have received a couple of complaint emails about some posts on Forex Forum from others in the group: Could everyone please refrain from talking about the 100 pip TSL on Forex Factory for the present time...it could be a temporary measure and I don't want traders to be unduly risking twice their capital further down the
track...You don't have to prove anything to anyone else !!!!
Emails
1. Just received this email
Hi Jacko
just a quick thought, 'i'm a seller at 1.5450' might confuse some new traders into taking a sell position instead of just closing the current one.
just a thought
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!!!!!!
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