MESSAGE FROM JACKO 79
It is 9.35pm NY time Tuesday April 1 and the market is at 1.5592
Update and emails below
It is currently 9.35am (April 2) local Hong Kong time and I am looking at new computers. About 18 hours ago my computer was hit with a virus that has rendered my computer virtually useless. (There must be an April Fool's virus).
Rather than have my computer in the workshop for 5 days and pay the repair costs (equivalent of all last years exports from China) like they quoted me late yesterday, I am out shopping for a brand new computer.
Will be back on air after I can find someone who will sell me a new computer on the proviso that he installs my laptop with all the gizmos and programs in my home. The thought of me spending hours doing all that rubbish drives me to despair.
I will be back as soon as possible.
Edit 12.40am NY time I am in a cyber cafe. Market is at 1.5600. As discussed in email two below, I believe that the long term UP trend is still in place. We will easily see 1.7000+ in the longer term. In the medium term, I believe that the market will retrace for a week or two (maybe even up to a month). However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Emplyment Change) may have an impact.
(The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position...the alternative is to stay out of the market in the medium term...and I am prepared to give the CT trade another opportunity)
Will be back later, hopefully not too long, on my shiny new Toshiba laptop.
Emails
Email 1
I have noticed over the past few months that you very rarely add a comment to your blog until Sydney and Asia are closed and London is open. Do you feel that those markets have little impact on our preferred pair? Yes,
Asia tends to focus on JPY trades and AUD/USD
As a follow up, do you feel it is critical to our success to be awake and alert when London opens until midsession NY? No not necessarily, it just suits my times...Mrs Jacko goes shopping , gets exhausted by 3 pm local time...I am home ready to start as London opens
As you know from your time in Florida that time of day sucks if you happen to live in the Midwestern states. I am curious about your thoughts. However, if the trades are planned and the stops are set I suppose I could put the plan on auto-pilot and just set my system to alert me in the middle of the night if the price gets close. Yes, that would work..or just leave it on auto-pilot (you being out of bed is not going to change the market)
Email 2
I went for the countertrend trade too and got stopped out. I only used a small amount of my normal position for it so it didn't lose as much $$ as a normal trade thankfully. I have a trend line going along the bottom of the recent range on the 4 hour chart, after the spike upwards I've got a small exhaustion spike going below my trendline and a close right on it. I'm going to take a long trade here using less than my normal position again.
Price is at 1.5776. If this goes against me, I'll treat it as a fallen soldier, but, where I really want to go long again is at 1.5600 which also happens to be the 50% retracement of the recent move up. A sound strategy Are you looking at this price also? No, I am actually looking lower...I think that there has been a collective breath of relief about the American financial crises. I dont believe that the long term UP trend is over, because there are still very large, deep seated problems in the US system
Do you ever go long on breaks above recent highs? sometimes That's a strategy I've used with some success in the past for strongly trending pairs,but that seems like the opposite of what you're trying to do which is go long as close to the bottom of a dip as possible. Yes, because I am a bargain hunter...and sometimes...sometimes !!...I am quite good at picking turnarounds in market sentiment
I'm getting more patient and feeling less anxious, planning a trade and waiting for the price I want is satisfying as I'm not just staring at a chart dumbfounded wondering what to do. That is a major psychological shift for the better.
I have had a number of emails from some of the group asking that I re-emphasis the following as it seems to have struck a chord with some of you
Email 3
You have been successful in business, and successful in trading. I think your "bigger picture" perspective is one of the reasons I wanted to work with you in the first place. The "bigger picture" is necessary because this is something that I decided I wanted to do for the rest of my life. I have found something (trading) that I can do for as long as my mind remains competent (hopefully another 50+ years). As I get older and the body changes from the magnificent Adonis body that I have now (LOL), there will eventually be a number of things that I will not be able to do...but trading is not one of those things. I have never seen it as work. Like most traders, it is a
passion. It is mentally stimulating and is something that I enjoy and want to do until the day I die.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 80
It is 11.40am NY time Wednesday April 2 and the market is at 1.5614
After waiting for hours for the Sales guy to arrrive and install everything, I am back on the air.
An important note: I have changed my email addresses due to (supposedly) better virus checking and spam control by Gmail (compared to Yahoo).
Please adjust my email address:
For the first group, my email is now waynejackson888@Gmail.com
For the second group, my email is now waynejackson777@Gmail.com
Please help me by changing these emails now as I wish to close the Yahoo accounts as soon as possible to prevent a repeat of the last 24 hours.
Also, I will be answering any unanswered emails in the Yahoo email box from a cybercafe until I am sure that my system is safe.
OK Lets get down to business.
As discussed in the previous Message:
I believe that the long term UP trend is still in place. We will easily see 1.7000+ in the longer term. In the medium term, I believe that the market will retrace for a week or two (maybe even up to a month). However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Employment Change) may have an impact.
(The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position...the alternative is to stay out of the market in the medium term...and I am prepared to give the CT trade another opportunity)
Update. The market moved to a high of 1.5673. Even though that I was still off the air at the time of the ADP NonFarm Employment Change announcement, 1.5673 is not high enough to be attractive to me to enter a CT trade. (A quick spike to between 5700 and 5750 would have enticed me). Even then, the low of 1.5532 barely satisfies the CT criteria of the break of the 4 hourly trend line
The CT trade is not a trade that I am that keen on, but my instinctive feeling is that we are due for a retracement, and a significant one. I think that there has been a collective breath of relief about the American financial crises that somehow they have "dodged the bullet," which will result in a temporary and short term rise in the USD (and fall in the Euro) and probably the Dow.
However in the longer term there are still very large, deep seated problems in the US system that will see the USD at 1.7000+
MESSAGES FROM JACKO 81
It is 2.40am NY time Thursdaysday April 3 and the market is at 1.5654
Update below
As stated in yesterdays Message, I was looking for a spike to between 5700 and 5750 to entice me into the CounterTrend trade. I am still looking for it...maybe when this Friday's Non Farm Employment Change are published ??
One or two of the newer members have emailed me re the Counter Trend Trade
The criteria as set out in Message 21 are
1.There is an Exhaustion spike
2.The break of the shorter time frame trend line (preferably 4 hourly) rounded down to nearest 50 or 00 (with x contracts)
3. The break of the longer time frame trend line (preferably 8 hourly) rounded down to nearest 50 or 00 (with 2x contracts)
4. Trailing Stop Loss is 50 pips ( NOTE: At the moment I am more inclined to use a fixed 100 pip SL due to the recent increased levels of volatility)
5. There is no A-H in effect
However, keep in mind that
1. We are still testing it
2. It has no "insurance policy" of an A-H strategy
3. It has to be treated totally separately to trend trading.
4. We have seen situations where both trend trading and counter trend trading can be operating at the same time, due to operating on different time frames.
Will be back for US trade....(I am re making all "pictures" on each of my 4 trading platforms... what a pain ! I just had them all the way that I liked them on my old computer)
Edit 10.40am NY time Market too choppy at the moment. Still waiting for around 1.5700+ to go short..may see it with NFP tomorrow ??....... if it doesn't come, I am happy to wait for a bigger dip and just stay with Trend Trading in "long" direction.
Emails
Email 1
You mentioned looking for a high to enter a CT trade in the short term. And that the mid term is a correction downwards. Yes
Will you still be looking for long trades on dips or will you only trade shorts with CT entries? I am still looking for a long trade but I think the dip will be reasonably deep...therefore I either wait up to month for the bottom of the dip or I take a CT trade to get some extra pips on the downside
When you trade CT entries, do you still use 50% fib retracement, etc to decide your entry point? How do you decide entry point? See the criteria for the CT trade in the blog
Email 2
I hope you are over your virus and feeling a lot better
Thank you Did I ever tell you that I am a techno moron....I really dislike computers...ANd I can't understand why anyone would get up in the morning and say to themselves..."I am going to create an awful virus today"
Email 3
I hope your new computer will serve you well! How did you know to buy Toshiba? They have one of the best laptops around… Believe me, I'm a semi-pro techno geek ;) LOL...It was the "nicest looking" computer. The Sales guy quickly worked out that I was an old guy...who knew NOTHING about computers...and was conversing in a foreign language and laughing with his workmates as he sold me the computer.
He also said that the older the computer, the more likely that there would be less problems. Lucky for me, he had one last old computer in his back room...and I didn't even need to unpack it from the box, because he had already done that for me....What a nice guy !!!! .
DO YOU THINK I GOT A GOOD DEAL??? LOL
Email 4
I was out surfing today and had the break to myself for a while. You may know that waves arrive in sets, or a series of waves one behind the other. All alone, I get to pick any one but only one usually. At one point I kicked out of a smallish, slow wave only to look back and see a really nice big one just starting to fire down the line. Wishing I'd caught that one instead, I was reminded of our Counter Trend trade. We just took the trade one wave early. Yep, it happens like that sometimes.
Email 5
on the counter trend trade ..... just the following observations:- When you missed out earlier in the week / you had a bad funk few days .... I was wondering whether this in turn led you to enter the CT trade very late in the week and holding it over the week-end / and the data then as a result 'fitted' your thought process? If it had been successful great ....... no more said / but did the trade go against your normal trading rules? Yes, the spike wasn't as strong as I usually want to see...it popped up earlier in the next week when it spiked to 5895-
Also I see (or am I crazy?) on a weekly basis & analysis counter-trend moves *(market sentiment at the start of the week) ....... this week is effective Short EUR .... and I know that you have said the CT does not have an AH policy ...... but in this last CT trade of yours it would have worked ..... and if I remember right the previous CT trade to that... if you had applied the AH to that trade then that would have worked also. I will check both of those again
Basically, I know there is the longer term trend (not questioning that at all) / but what about the interim counter trends that occasionally happen in the mean-time on a weekly basis / how can we take advantage or avoid these? That is where the CT trading come into play but we are still live testing it...there has not been many sizable corrections in the Euro for some time !!
MESSAGES FROM JACKO 82
It is 11.40pm NY time Thursday April 3 and the market is at 1.5665
As stated earlier today, I am still waiting for around 1.5700+ (1.5750 is enticing) to go short..may see it with NFP tomorrow ??....... if it doesn't come, I am happy to wait for a bigger dip and just stay with Trend Trading in "long" direction.
Two good reads regarding the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) are here:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Non_Farm_Payrolls__Dollar_Outlook_Hinges_1207242757904.html
and here:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Top_5_Most_Market_Moving_1205879160043.html
I will be back for NFP announcement
Emails
Email1
How's the new 'pooter (Computer)? Not bad...still getting used to it.
Also, still getting used to new Gmail email format.
Also, have been trying to remember how I had each of my trading platforms set up so I can get them all back the way I had them
(Aaaugh...I hate computers!!! And its just not the same yelling at a computer when a trade starts to tank....I much prefer to have the old way of ringing up a broker and abusing them for MY mistakes...LOL)
MESSAGES FROM JACKO 83
It is 9.09 am NY time Friday April 4 and the market is at 1.5693
I am in at 1.5750. I have actually been arguing for the last twenty minutes with one of my brokers regarding my fill.
Edit 10.03..... Sorry, don't know what happened there...lost half of the message... I am still "negotiating " with one of my brokers. It appears that one is seriously out of line compared to the other three...they are "checking into it". I have given them till the close of business today, otherwise I will be "checking out" of them... Mark is ringing their CEO.
Edit 10.26am I am still in at 1.5750.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 84
It is 12.15am NY time Monday April 7 and the market is at 1.5672
I am still in at 1.5750 and am about 80 pips in profit (partway to recovering my 100 pip loss last week on a "premature" trade). I am still comfortable with this trade
Edit 9.44am NY time. Market not moving very much. No major news today. FOMC meeting tomorrow. Market
may drift up and down over next 24 hours. I am still happy with my position.
Emails
Email 1
I received no Text on you getting "In".... did you send one?
No it was too fast a reaction on the NFP announcement but I had telegraphed it for about 4 days on blog
Message 82 I am still waiting for around 1.5700+ (1.5750 is enticing) to go short..may see it with NFP tomorrow
Message 81 I was looking for a spike to between 5700 and 5750 to entice me into the CounterTrend trade. I am still looking for it...maybe when this Friday's Non Farm Employment Change are published
Message 80 However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Employment Change) may have an impact. (The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position.......
my instinctive feeling is that we are due for a retracement, and a significant one. I think that there has been a collective breath of relief about the American financial crises that somehow they have "dodged the bullet," which will result in a temporary and short term rise in the USD (and fall in the Euro)
Message 79 However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months, Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Emplyment Change) may have an impact. (The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we may get a good CounterTrend sell position
Message 79 I believe that the long term UP trend is still in place. We will easily see 1.7000+ in the longer term.
In the medium term, I believe that the market will retrace for a week or two (maybe even up to a month).
However, in the short term, that is the next 24 hours, I believe that, for the first time in about 4 months,
Tuesday's ADP NonFarm Employment Change (and Friday's Non Farm Emplyment Change) may have an impact.
(The key issue will be whether it is significant enough to push the Euro back up, even temporarily, so that we
may get a good Counter Trend sell position...the alternative is to stay out of the market in the medium
term...and I am prepared to give the CT trade another opportunity)
Email 2
It sounds like you are bearish in the short-term. Yes
My question is, whatexactly are you looking for to tell you the trend is heading back up? Change in market sentiment on a fundamental basis and a change in the price action
I'm guessing you don't have a specific price level in mind (maybe you do?) Not really but are looking for price action to exhaust itself on the downside. yes
What does that confirmation (of a move back up) look like? Hitting a major support line, or maybe a 50% retrace of major rise or a round number
Doesn't waiting for confirmation not get you the best deal? ? sometimes yes, but I don't want EVERY deal...just the ones with a much better than 50% probability of a win...each win and loss is a big slab of money, so I prefer to wait for trades biased in my favor
Email 3
In the last CT entry at 1.5750 or better, I entered at 1.5771 but got stopped also. But I re-entered at 1.572 after the "killer" spike as I felt that your prediction of a retracement is very strong. It was a small position that I wanted to try out and it managed to close out with 100pip TSL at 1.5633 for a 94pips gain. Good work
I might have been lucky but I strongly believe it was because you were right about the strong retracement. You spotted a "down trend" within an "up trend". You got a beautiful CT trade there going if not for the "killer" spike, else it would have been a "perfect" trade! LOL..".what if" scenarios...Woulda coulda shoulda ..!!!
Just some feedback which I hope would be useful. I really look forward to seeing the CT strategy becoming as great as your Trend strategy. Thanks
Email 4
Hehe, I was laughing so hard, when reading your laptop buying story =) Thanks for that too. Anyway, I'm 100% sure, you've bought a good laptop and for trading will be more than enough.
Thanks..I actually got one of the new "retro" models...you know, one of those very expensive ones with the "retro" black and white screens...no messy colors at all !!!!.
Whoa, did I get a great bargain or what ???
Email 5
Is the correction that is about to take place a result of a short lived rising in the Dollar or fall in the Euro? What I am trying to say is who is pushing for this correction happen, the Dollar or the Euro? Just wanted to see your view, Thanks again... I think the rise of the dollar is being brought about by people realising that the world is not going to end and that the panic/overreaction is over. However, it will not prevent the USD from continuing to fall over the longer term
Email 6
I followed my plan. You are "getting it" !!!! ...you are starting to become less emotional and sticking to your plan...that is 90% of the solution to winning in Forex...Plan your trade, be patient...and don't panic at every twitch in the market..trade the plan
Email 7
You prefer to set your stop loss 50 or 100 pips. I'mstill using what I think important resistence or support points and placing S/L above or below them. Good strategy...I just find that that sometimes can be too "discretionary" ...I prefer the unemotional fixed figure
So just wanted to know your thoughts about that. Itry to make my losses as small as possible so Iussualy look for resistence/support points with about50 pips and place my S/L there. Good combination...as long as you determine your exit strategy and price BEFORE you enter the trade
Email 8
Hope you've settled with your broker on your 1.5750 entry. Oh yes...Mark can be VERY persuasive !!!
Your target was amazingly spot on as usual, wow! Wonder when I can be like you. It won't be long Was this the same target as the one last week (also 1.5750)? I was really quite uncertain about when to put my entry order and set it at 1.5800 just to play safe. No...too high and too strong a level
Regarding this trade, I was wondering is this considered a news trade? No. My trade was placed well before the news Is it advisable to trade during news times? Yes...as long as you are not "Trading the news"...that is, in and out in less than 5 minutes I have never tried but read so much about spread widening and problems with fill etc.
Another question on CT trade in general.
We first decided on CT trade last week. We had the criteria for CT trade on break of 4&8 hour trend lines. So we predicted a down trend for the short term and put our entries. My question is how long is this setup valid?
That is an indeterminate time frame...depends on the individual trade How do we know that this short term down trend is not tradable any more? When the opportunity to buy/sell at the target price is no longer available
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 85
It is 8.00am NY time Tuesday April 8 and the market is at 1.5716
I am still in with my Counter Trend trade at 1.5750. The bear is trying to hide but I can smell him in the bushes.
Like the previous trade, I have a fixed Stop Loss (at 1.5850). I am going to keep it there and then I may change it to a 100 pip TSL later in the trade (probably around 1.5600). I also still have a buy order sitting at 1.5450 waiting to be triggered
Emails
Email 1 (This one was from a couple of days ago)
I personally hate the NFP report day. I don't have a crystal balls(brass yes). I don't have an in-law at the Bureau
of Labor Statistics or the Fed(how great would that be). The whip-saw that happens in just a few minutes
before that report is enough to take out the standard 50 pip TSL(maybe even 100) in a heart beat. So, what do
you do? You don't trade news. I don't try to trade "the news"...(in and out in minutes).. but if I have a medium
term price target in already in mind from days earlier then I don't really care about the news...the news is just
a market reaction on fast forward , But, you pay close attention to it. I prefer that combination too.
It requires some really big ears to touch both the technical and fundamental rails at the same time. So, how do
you handle big news days? Let it pass then trade? No, just ignore the fact that it is a news event...the question
is "do I want to buy at a certain price, irrespective of the news
Bet one side with a tight stop? No Bet big on your gut(Jacko ,Mark and Newbie)? Noooo !!!!
I think in August you let the announcement come and then traded the big surprise(interest rate drop, not NFP)
right away until you were fat and happy. Yes, because I didn't have a pre existing target at the time of the
news, but then when I saw the reaction, I thought that it was "out of line"
Email 2
I have a Buy Limit order with a 100 pip TSL set. Now I'm off to do some gardening and let's see what will
happen (if anything). That's the correct approach...
you have analysed the situation..
you have decided on a plan for the trade...
you have set the limit you are prepared to risk...
and you have gone to do something that you want to do...
Excellent (PS Watching it tick by tick or minute by minute won't change a thing...just give you a bad case of high anxiety)
Email 3
With your latest CT trade are you using 100 pip TSL? No. I am using a 100 pip fixed for the current Counter Trend Trade. (the same as the last trade) . I may change it to a TSL later. I can smell a bear and he is lurking...I want to give this trade some breathing room
Email 4
Just wanted to check in and say how much I am enjoying your blog and guidance on where/how to look for trades, I am much more relaxed about trading - and now enjoying it! Good...it is something that hopefully you will do for the rest of your life...so it is better that you get into a "special place" where it is enjoyable
Also you may learn from my experience (similar to yours) of computer ceasing to exist. I now store examples of my set ups on a memory stick and some on a cd so that if the unthinkable happens again I have reference for getting back to normal.......LOL .....Waaay to complex.....I am a techno-moron. You would be proud of me... I took photos of the four platforms...
Email 5
I'm just interested to know how much of your market insight is derived purely from intuition and years of experience and how much of it relates to you keeping abreast of current issues. It is both...but I think that the main thing is that I am still REALLY interested in "big picture" economic affairs as it impacts on the stock, property and forex markets. Reading that stuff is not a chore...I can't wait to get the business papers every day
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 86
It is 9.45am NY time Wednesday April 9 and the market is at 1.5760
I am still in with my Counter Trend at 1.5750. The market is has been oscillating between 1.5700 and 1.5800 for quite some time. However, I am reasonably sure that tomorrow may be the day for the direction to be established. The Euro Interest Announcement and the US Trade Balance and Unemployment claims could act as a dam breaker.
I am still very comfortable with my position though I am tiring of the inaction and would have liked to see it sitting lower down at this time. However, I am in and am staying with the position.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 87
It is 1.15am NY time Thursday April 10 and the market is at 1.5840
My 1.5750 Counter Trend trade was stopped out for a 100 pip loss (it was a fixed 100 pip Stop Loss).
As far as my trading is concerned, the Counter Trend trading is in the dustbin.
My last two trades were both Counter Trend trades and those two trades have been my two single largest pip losses ever. In the last two trades I have incurred a total loss of 200 pips.
While it is not significant against my accumulated profits to date, it has torn a hole in my trading over the last three months(though I am still positive).
What is even more galling is that if I had stayed with my boring, standard, normal Trend
Trading strategy at the time of making both of those decisions, then I would have been sitting on a 68+ pip profit versus a 200 pip loss* (*See calculations below).
The point of the above is that even by trading at prices that I perceived were the extremes of "shorting" , the standard Trend Trading strategy would still have resulted in a far superior result.
To those who followed my Counter Trend trades, I apologise.
To those who stood aside and watched while I "live tested" this relatively new Counter Trend strategy, I hope that you have seen a lesson that has cost me 200 real pips and a further "potential" 68+ pips.
If nothing else, it seriously demonstrates the "robustness" of trading only with the trend. (It also demonstrates the effectiveness of the A-H strategy)
Calculations
Trade 1
At 2.25am NY time March 28, I advised that I would be going "short" at 1.5785 (which I did)
Now lets see the result of staying with the Trend at that time.
1. Long at 1.5785 2.25am March 28
2. Market peaks at 1.5895 at 10am March 31.
3. TSL set at 1.5795
4. TSL triggered for a 10 pip gain around 12pm March 31
Trade 2
At 11.40am NY time April 2, I advised that I would be looking to go "short" again at 1.5750 (which I did)
Now lets see the result of staying with the Trend at that time
1. The market was at 1.5614. A "Long" placed at that time
2. Market peaked at 1.5701 at 4pm April 2
3. TSL set at 1.5601
4. TSl triggered for a 13 pip loss at around 4.30am April 3
5. HOWEVER, market falls more than 50 pips past our TSL, so A-H strategy is in place
6. A-H strategy sets a buy at 1.5601
7. A-H buy at 1.5601 triggered at 8.30 am April 3
8. Market peaks 1.5772 at 8.30 am April 4
9. TSL set at 1.5672
10. TSL triggered for a 71 pip gain at around 10 pm April 6
In addition, being in profit, we would have also had the opportunity to place an additional long trade sometime between April 6 and the present time. ( the potential profits were missed because we were in the Counter Trend trade...)
Emails
Email 1
common sense tells me that a downward correction is due before an overall resumption of the upward trend.
Therefore I will be waiting for a break of the pennant trend lines before i re-enter. I expect it very soon since the pennant is coming into a 100 pip range. Time will tell which way it is going to break....if it breaks upwards, it shows me that the banking problems in the US and Europe are far, far worse than they have been saying.
Email 2
I do not like stop losses as I have just lost too many trades by being stopped out by a few pips only to see the price turn round. My last trade I had a 100 pip stop and the market spiked up 110 pips to knock me out by 10 pips ...and then it fell through the floor...(it knocked my "short" out at by 10 pips at 1.5895...then dropped to 1.5532..)...but that is trading !!! (No-one gets it right 100% of the time in any business) I have only been using stops when I can't babysit the trade, and they always seem to be just too tight. I shouldn't forget that on
many occasions though the tight stops have been OK, especially when the price just shoots away and doesn't come back. They are the account killers.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 88
It is 9.45am NY time Friday April 10 and the market is at 1.5814
I think that the cruellest thing in trading is watching your Stop Loss being taken out by the smallest amount, then the market collapsing in what would have been in your favour.
In the first Counter Trend trade, I was stopped out by 10 pips at 1.5895 only to see the market then collapse by 350 pips.
At least in the second Counter Trend trade, the market had the decency to travel to 1.5912 (or 62 pips past my Stop Loss) before collapsing all the way back to 1.5724.
I am staying out of the market today, Friday, but will be looking for a long trade early next week.
It is time to get back in the saddle and get back to basics.
Emails
Email 1
Hi Jacko….here is a quote I keep to myself when a trade goes against me. I hope it encourages you as it reminds me so much of this market when the "guys outplay" you. Tiger Woods on "Success":
"You've got to put yourself in position. You've got to work hard; do all the things you need to do to get yourself there. Sometimes it goes your way, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes the guys outplay you; sometimes you outplay them. Sometimes you may get a lucky break that allows you to go on and win the tournament.
Whatever it may be, the thing is you have to put yourself out there enough number of times to get the number of wins."
Email 2
I see you discouraged on your CT trade calls. Thought both of you calls were very accurate. Problem with #1was that it was taken out by that unexpected spike,but after it it went down pretty hard just like you predicted and 100pip TSL would have made gains.
#2call was also fine, with 50 pip TSL there would be 20+pips to gain.
What I'm getting to is that your calls on trades are still very accurate and CT strategy should not be dimissed, maybe it just needs some more work to tune it. Maybe imply some T/P for CT trades lets say set amount of 100pips or T/P at important resistance levels like 4H trendlines. Both of these would haveworked well on you 2 CT calls. There will be no more Counter Trend trades in the foreseeable future for me, but we may continue to test various options such as you have described but my hands are black and scorched at the moment
Email3
Hi Jacko,
When I look at the charts, I would have chosen 1.5200 as the next long entry point because it is close to the
50% retracement of this most recent move from 1.4438 to 1.5902 and it is a round number and there was some
resistance in this area in the first week of March. It is still a possibility
Do you feel the 1.5450 area will provide support because of the prior resistance at this area from the second
week in March yes and that we are in such a Bullish environment that traders want to get long as early as
possible? Yes, absolutely.
Email 4
Are you still confident the panic is overdone? Housing data way off today and Greenspan admitting we are in recession would argue otherwise. Yes, I think the headlines are over, now it will be just a grinding down of the US financial system...(the Euro correction is taking place as I speak...market back at 5747....(shit!!)...but it wont last long)..the euro will go up again very soon and easily hit 1.7000
Email 5
When you were trading aggressively on dailyfx forum, were you using the same strategy you are using now andwere you trading on shorter timeframes? Same strategy, shorter time frames...but it is not emotionally sustainable over the longer term (in my opinion)
Email 6
I'm guessing you're stopped out of your 2nd CTT now, and being the perfectionist that you are I've noticed that your first reaction is usually not one of annoyance of your loss, but one of concern for the rest of the group.
Don't worry - the blog's still the best read all of us ever get, and you're by far the best trader I've ever seen.
Besides, you've always made it explicit you're not a signal service and many of us didn't take the trade knowing about the perils of a counter-trend. This may be obvious, but I thought now was a good time to remind you!
Thanks for your kind words...the reason I get "concerned for the rest of the group" is that I am playing with the markets money (that is profits from previous trades) whereas some of the traders here are playing with their own money....BIG IFFERENCE.... but it is one thing that I am very aware of and I always try to be careful for them
Email 7
Since starting your tutelage, I have been pretty liberal with short trades, due to the anxiousness to trade. I have done the same as some in the group prefer to trade much more than me
So after this round of losses I wanted to see what my trading account would look like if I abstained from the CT/Short trades. WOW, what a difference! As of today I'm up 25+% on my trading account. Excellent by any accounts as far as ROI. Yet when I subtracted out the CT/Short trades, both winners and losers that I made over this time frame, I would have had a return of 52%. Of course, the CT trades have torn a small hole in my profit figures
Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda definitely, but this review has made me realize that trading only with trend outright is the best approach for my trading style. For me, lesson learned!!!!!!!!! Yes, same here
I just wanted to share my personal experience. It's great to have your group for reflection and insight, as in the end it's greatly improving my trading. Can't wait for the result in the next 4 months;-) Back to basics...boring but definitely more profitable
Email 8
This is from one of our lady traders who described how she trades to a friend of hers
1/ My mind is only set to go long
2/ I will look for cheep prices to get in
3/ If i am wrong then i will use AH
4/ I will only trade with the trend long or short
5/ If it means only 2 3 or 4 trades per month so be it
These are the rules i told my friend. I think that they are excellent rules...I think I might try those Think less
Do more. Thanks for reminding me !!!!
Email 9
Dear Jacko,Quote: "To those who followed my Counter Trend trades, I apologise."
My thoughts:
1. Trading is a mental game.
2. I benefit more from watching Jacko deal with the mental side than I could ever do by following an entry or exit on a single trade.
3. I can handle a winner. How many of us can handle a loser on big lots? Yet you take it on the chin and accept that being stopped out by 10 pips is just part of the game. This is where the lesson is for most of us turtles.
4. You said it yourself "trading is an attitude of risk to reward".
Successful trading is not about getting a perfect system. Its about how we deal with wins and losses.
What I learned from watching you:
1. No trade is guaranteed, no matter how many fundamental and otherwise logical reasons we have for any
trade.
2. Even with 15+ years of experience and laser beam focus on a single pair, there will still be losses and sometimes they'll be big.
3. There are ALWAYS opportunities for woulda/shoulda/coulda. (Coulda had a stop of 110. Could had a trailing stop to limit the losses. Coulda moved stop to Break Even when the change was presented). Even on a winner.....trading gives us the woulda/coulda/shoulda. Its something we have to live with, even with a winning trade.
4. If you haven't bet the ranch then a couple of losses is no big deal
5. The trend is your friend, even when you think its not.
Thank you for being so open and sharing your trades with us. We benefit more from watching how you deal with the pain of trading than we do from watching you celebrate the pleasure.
Thank you for your kind words
Email 10
Well, I was in the group of people who was letting you live-test the CT strategy for the rest of us. In the end, it
was a valuable lesson really. Expensive is a better word...LOL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 89
It is 7.38am NY time Monday April 14 and the market is at 1.5867
I have returned to Florida over the weekend for a family get-together and to execute some documents at our attorneys offices regarding my late father over the next three days. After a gruelling 21 hours travelling between Hong Kong and Florida yesterday (?) , I have just woken up. I have just got up out of bed after receiving a wake up call from Mark. It is 7.18 am here (Florida)
Having said that, lets see what is happening. The market was whacked about the head on the weekend due jawboning of the to the G7 meeting. However, the curious thing is the amazingly stubborn weakness of the US dollar.
There is something VERY, VERY SERIOUS going on in the US financial markets that the major banks are aware of (and we are not). The Central Banks are trying to jawbone the Euro down and the market (that is Investment Banks and traders) is just pushing it straight back up...
I am just going to have a shower to wake up and then get back here to see what is happening.
Edit 8.30am NY time Bloombergs states that "The dollar gained earlier after the G-7 said it would ``monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate,'' a sign to some traders that it would support the greenback. (that is sell the Eur)
The change in the G-7 statement was the most significant since the Boca Raton, Florida, meeting in February 2004, when officials cautioned against ``excess volatility.'' The latest statement didn't explicitly mention the dollar or suggest plans for intervention, in which central banks arrange purchases or sales of foreign exchange.
(Uh oh...I don't like that... If you are in the market at the moment...market at 1.5870... be VERY careful...ECB intervention may not happen today, but it may happen very soon...)
If I was a wild punter like Newbietrader, I would be shorting this market at these levels...but my days of Counter Trend trading are over and so I am prepared to wait. The ECB is warming up for a move.
Either that or as I said in Message 87 "....if it breaks upwards, it shows me that the banking problems in the US and Europe are far, far worse than they have been saying".
Edit 8.45am NY time Newbie trader is short at 1.5860
Edit 10.25am NY time Newbie is still in...had a scare back at 1.5861 but he says that he is staying in ....market at 1.5856...
Edit 10.25am NY time I have to go to meeting with attorneys...back later
Edit 11.25pm NY time It has been a full day. Market has been slow in my absence. Newbietrader is still short at 1.5860. (Market is at 1.5821)
Emails
I am a little behind on answering your emails due to wasting so much time in flight over the weekend...I will answer all of them as soon as possible
Also as outlined a week ago I have changed my email addresses due to (supposedly) better virus checking and spam control by Gmail (compared to Yahoo).
Please adjust my email address:
For the first group, my email is now waynejackson888@Gmail.com
For the second group, my email is now waynejackson777@Gmail.com
Please help me by changing these emails now as I wish to close the Yahoo accounts as soon as possible to prevent a repeat of the virus attack that occurred on April 1. Also, I will be answering any unanswered emails in the Yahoo email box from a cybercafe until I am sure that my system is safe.
No comments:
Post a Comment