The below information extracted from Jacko's Trading blog
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 13
It is 11am NY time Monday November 19 and the market is at 1.4653 (again!!)
This market has basically been moving in between 1.4600 to 1.4700 since 10pm way back on Nov 6. That nearly two weeks in a 100 pip range. It is very difficult to trade such a tight band....something's going to give soon.
I am again waiting for the market to take a minor retracement and take the opportunity to buy at a lower price. This market WILL hit 1.500 (but it will be a big strong resistance). So, in effect we are currently waiting and looking for a lower price to get in the market to increase our profits and lower our risk of a drawdown.
My current strategy is to look for a dip...so that we can go long...I don't want to buy too high or I will have a bigger drawdown. I am interested in buying at the lower end of this 100 pip band at the 1.4600 mark or lower. To buy back in at where we were stopped out at 1.4595 would be justice for the unfortunate stop out last week.
In the longer term, this market is still heading up.... the target of 1.5000 is simply too big a challenge for the desk jockeys at the major banks and hedge funds, PLUS I think that some Arabian countries (not Saudis) are about to announce a de-peg from the USD.
Also note that Thursday is Thanksgiving Holiday in both US and Japan.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 14
It is 9.45am NY time Tuesday November 20 and the market is at 1.4792
As outlined yesterday, something certainly gave way...
We got the direction right......"this market is still heading up"
We got the reason right....."I think that some Arabian countries (not Saudis) are about to announce a de-peg from the USD"
We got the timing right...."11am NY time Monday" was some 15 hours before the news impacted the market
My instinct was unbelievably close...as the market moved gradually back from 1.4635 I "almost" posted a message to say "Dammit, let's just buy this sucker at 1.4650"
My conservatism with your money was waay off... "I am interested in buying at the lower end of this 100 pip band at the 1.4600 mark or lower"....."to increase our profits and lower our risk of a drawdown"..because I thought it would be more prudent for each of you ...Was that a error or what ????!!!!
The positive is that we haven't lost any money. The negative is that we missed a very good opportunity.
(However, I always console myself in these situations that there is another opportunity just around the corner)
Just as an aside, there were eight members of the group that individually mailed me in the last 24-36 hours saying that this market was a red hot "short." I seriously hope that you didn't act on the trade. I also recommend that each of you carry a small notebook and write in it each trade that you would like to trade (including a locked-in SL) and have a look at the result of your mental trades at the end of each week. (Your trades must be written as they occur to you ...and before it is played out). Our minds often deceive us by remembering only the trades with positive outcomes and we tend to "forget" those times when we would have placed a losing trade. It is a revealing and extremely worthwhile exercise.
Jacko
PS The wild speculator in me is seriously tempted to "fade " this market and sell it at this price area (1.4792).
CERTAINLY NOT A RECOMMENDATION BUT JUST MY "THIS RISE IS TOO OVERDONE" INSTINCTS TALKING VERY LOUDLY TO ME......
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 15
It is 1.30 am NY time Thursday November 22 and the market is at 1.4860
Thanksgiving Day is upon us. In this industry we have many reasons to give Thanks for everything that has been
given to us.
Firstly, I give Thanks for finding this extraordinary business where there is incredible flexibility in establishing, running and financing the business.
Given the huge leverage in this business, anyone can enter the industry and establish a trade... and their subsequent business.
Also, while running the business, if I see an opportunity I can be involved within 30 seconds. More importantly, if I am in a trade and I feel that I have made a mmmmmistake I can be out of that transaction within 30 seconds. (try doing that with any other business!!)
Also, the leverage and compounding allows extraordinary growth and profits. In just two short years I have managed to escalate from 2 standard contracts (with one broker) to 200 standard contracts (over 4 brokers) in a normal transaction
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Secondly, I give Thanks for a market that trends so regularly that opportunities are around every corner. Even though I have missed an opportunity or two in the last two or three weeks, I can remain confident because I know that there are plenty more opportunities to come.
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Thirdly, I give Thanks for the fact that I can conduct my business from anywhere in the world with just my
laptop and an international cell phone.
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying
at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Thirdly, I give Thanks for the fact that I can conduct my business from anywhere in the world with just my laptop and an international cell phone.
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Fourthly, I give Thanks for being able to ¡°think out¡± the Anti-Hedge strategy which turned my initial losers into winners and escalated my win rate from 72% to 95+%
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Fifthly, I give Thanks for having some excellent resources (in the form of books about earlier successful traders) which have been a beacon in those times when I have been sitting on the sidelines, wanting to rush in. Those resources have all emphasized the waiting as a precondition for becoming a winner.
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Sixthly, I give Thanks to each of you for being part of this new tribe of traders that have decided to join with me in this lifelong business of trading. Although, I was initially frustrated at some of the technical issues (emails and SMSes), I am now finding it extraordinarily rewarding especially when I receive your emails of support. Also, some (most?) of you have also been more aggressive in your trading than me in the last couple of weeks and I have been happy to read that many of you have made excellent profits, especially those that jumped in around 1.4650 and have been using those profits to build your positions. We have all embarked on a journey that, God willing, will allow us to have a simple yet profitable business for the rest of our lives. (For any of you who think that retirement is good, let me tell you something....playing golf every day is boring ...and the people who do play golf every day are even more boring!!!! I am old...and getting older...but I still get an adrenalin buzz from a successful trade.)
(Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Seventhly, I give thanks for Forex Factory, without which I would never have met any of you. In my communications with each of you to date, you have ALL shown that you want to be serious and committed traders, and are willing to learn. Some of you will always be more aggressive in your willingness to take positions and some of you will be more safety-conscious. There is no right or wrong way, as long as your profits are maximized AND any losses are minimized. I think that a number of you are potentially better traders than me. If I can just help show you how I trade, I hope that many of you will use my experience and style and modify it to suit your own personalities. You can then go on to have as rewarding a time as I have had in this business. I, personally, am enjoying the group dynamics and hope that the group goes on for years as we all get to know each other and start to share our trading experiences in the near future.
(And...just in case you missed it ...Have I already explained that I am still kicking myself.... I was sooo close to messaging the group and buying at 4650 that I still can't believe that I didn't do it).
Happy Thankgiving Day
Wayne Jackson (aka Jacko)
PS I also give Thanks that my rules over-rode my "irrational exuberance" regarding the PS in my last message
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