MESSAGE FROM JACKO 50
It is 7.32am NY time Friday February 8 and the market is at 1.4481.
As outlined yesterday, the market has fallen past 1.4562 and the A-H trade to buy at 1.4612 was placed yesterday.
The buy order at 1.4612 has not been hit, so it will just sit there as a Good Till Cancelled (GTC) order until the market goes back up to 1.4612. (In a much shorter time than most expect).
As outlined yesterday, the market has fallen past 1.4562 and the A-H trade to buy at 1.4612 was placed yesterday.
The buy order at 1.4612 has not been hit, so it will just sit there as a Good Till Cancelled (GTC) order until the market goes back up to 1.4612. (In a much shorter time than most expect).
However I also believe that the downdraft is almost over so I have placed a Buy order at 1.4350, in the potential situation of a spike down to the lower levels of the 1.4400 - 1.4350 support levels. .
A Buy order placed at 1.4350
Emails
1. I was reading some news today of a person I admire and he said some things that you already has told us, he is a long term guy just like you, he is Warren Buffett and he said just yesterday:
"Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett says U.S. dollar likely to continue to decline"
[...]"The cause of the declining U.S. dollar is the current account deficit, the trade deficit being the biggest factor in that," Buffett said Wednesday, referring to two of the key measures of a country's economic standing with the rest of the world.
The United States is sending about $2 billion a day to the rest of the world, he said, adding "people become a little more reluctant over time to hold those dollars or dollar denominated assets."
[...]
The Canadian Press
Eric Shackleton, The Canadian Press
February 6, 2008 - 7:20 p.m.
No not really. I find the trend lines relevant, but I do not place a great deal of faith in "triangles." Too much TA only causes traders to not to see the real Price Action which is very apparent just by looking at a chart and remembering that it takes much more "effort" to turn a market than to have it keep going in the same
direction. (So" go with the flow")
3. Question is: At WHAT POINT after a couple days of not doing what you thought & still being down - do you say - hey this isn't doing what I thought - time to exit!
You can always make a decision to close a trade if you think that it is going to go against you. I personally have found that, in the majority of cases where I have made a decision while I was IN the trade, it has turned out to be the wrong decision (because the emotions get in the way).
An alternative solution is to only keep a trade while it is in the positive...if it falls back to your buy price, then sell out for zero profit/loss. But again, in the majority of cases where I made that decision, it has turned out to be the wrong decision.
4. The market looks to be trapped at these levels (between 4400 to 4900).
We are trend traders who are currently trading in a sideward market and the worse thing for a trend trader is a sidewards moving market. Fortunately, the Euro doesn't move sidewards very often. When it does happen, we just need to stand aside from the market and wait for the market to resume normal trending. It doesn't take long for the market to resolve its direction. Alternatively, we look to buy at the bottoms of the range and sell at the top.
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 51
I have one outstanding buy order at 1.4612 which is a A-H fallen soldier which is still waiting to be picked up by the upward trend.
I have been having very intense discussions with Mark over the week-end and we have come to the realization that the increased volatility of the Euro over the previous three months necessitates a (temporary?) change in our strategy.
If you pull up your charts on a daily basis and look at the Average True Range (ATR) and set it to a period of one (1) day, you can see the marked increase in the daily trading range from November 2007.
(The Average True Range (or simply: ATR) is a volatility indicator. The lower the ATR, the less volatility, the higher, the more volatility).
This increased volatility is the reason that our 50 pip Trailing Stop Losses have been being hit many times more than in the past.
If you pull up your charts on a daily basis and look at the Average True Range (ATR) and set it to a period of one (1) day, you can see the marked increase in the daily trading range from November 2007.
(The Average True Range (or simply: ATR) is a volatility indicator. The lower the ATR, the less volatility, the higher, the more volatility).
This increased volatility is the reason that our 50 pip Trailing Stop Losses have been being hit many times more than in the past.
This increased volatility is impacting on all markets, including Bond and equity markets, so it would be naive for us to think that the currency markets will not continue to be affected for the present time and near future.
After much discussion, I have made a decision that, from today until the volatility decreases back to its normal range, I will be trading with 100 pip Trailing Stop Losses. This is a significant increase in the potential drawdown, However, I believe that the potential returns from not being prematurely whipsawed out by the
increased volatility justifies the change.
As a method of reducing your drawdown amount (in dollar terms), I suggest that:
1. If you are NOT in profit by 200 pips (or you have just started trading live...or you have just joined us...etc) then reduce your number of contracts by 50% of what you normally trade. (Don¡¯t worry, you will get to 200+ pips soon enough!!)
2. However,if you are in profit by more than 200 pips at the present time, I suggest that you attempt to start to compound those profits by reducing your number of contracts by only 25%
3. For those of you who are 300+ pips in profit, I suggest that you compound those profits by maintaining your contract size at your current level.
The market has been moving in a sideward movement since November, but I believe that we are now close to the end of it. I am still a Euro bull so I see the current levels (1.4500 to 1.4550...especially the very low 4500's) as very attractive buy areas. (I would have liked to see 1.4350 but I guess that I was a little too hopeful of getting a screaming bargain).
I am a buyer at the low 1.4500's with a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss. (Please note: you will need to adjust your contract size according to the recommendations above)
I am a buyer at the low 1.4500's with a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss. (Please note: you will need to adjust your contract size according to the recommendations above)
Another strategy that I am currently evaluating is taking a position when the Euro retraces 50 pips from it previous high. This price action has been causing us a problem in our trading so maybe, it is worth us turning that problem into a positive action to benefit us. It would simply be added to our list of things to consider
(round numbers, trend lines and 50% Fibs) when making a decision for a trade.
(round numbers, trend lines and 50% Fibs) when making a decision for a trade.
The market peaked at 1.4576 earler this morning at 3.15am NY time, so I will be a buyer at 1.4526 (or lower, if I can get them...I like a bargain...).
I will be using a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss.
I will be using a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss.
Jacko
Edit 8.24am Market dropping quickly... bought at 4521
Edit 8.41 Market coming down again...another chance for you to get in...maybe lower than me...go for
4505 ??
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 52
It is 7.45am NY time Tuesday February 12 and the market is at 1.4542.
1. As outlined yesterday, I bought at 1.4521. ( Happily, most of you got in at a much better price than me...gnash, gnash, gnashing of teeth)
Interestingly, the market fluctuated 53 pips (1.4548 to 1.4495) between 2am and 4am this morning NY time, which would have TSL stopped us out under our old 50 pip TSL rule.
We are now still in the market and the intention is to reduce the TSL back to 50 pips AFTER it has moved 150 pips in our favour. (However, we are getting ahead of ourselves...we are a long way from 150 pips ahead of our entry).
However, I feel that we are not letting the bigger guys beat us up and knock us out by using big volatility swings.
However, I feel that we are not letting the bigger guys beat us up and knock us out by using big volatility swings.
2. I also have one outstanding buy order at 1.4612 which is a A-H fallen soldier which is still waiting to be picked up by the upward trend.
Emails
I have had a couple of emails asking how often I look at the computer when I have large numbers of contracts in the markets and do I worry about my trades.
My answer was that:
When you have been a trader in various markets (equity, futures and forex etc) over many years, you tend to become a little philosophical about the markets. (The "end-of-the-world scenario has never happened ....although the crash of 1987 scared the hell out of me).
You also learn that there are VERY FEW (maybe only 1 or 2 in a lifetime) opportunities that require you to put
your entire net worth or more on the line. And Forex is NOT one of them
When you have been a trader in various markets (equity, futures and forex etc) over many years, you tend to become a little philosophical about the markets. (The "end-of-the-world scenario has never happened ....although the crash of 1987 scared the hell out of me).
You also learn that there are VERY FEW (maybe only 1 or 2 in a lifetime) opportunities that require you to put
your entire net worth or more on the line. And Forex is NOT one of them
In regards to Forex,
1. I have a good strategy with above average strike rate.
1. I have a good strategy with above average strike rate.
2. I take a position, based on the best information and trading parameters available to me at the time....and if I want to trade and make money, then I need to make a decision to trade regularly.
3. I have an excellent insurance policy based on the A-H strategy
4. I only risk what I can afford. (Even though I personally trade 5% of my account, my account is only part of my total worth).
I ALWAYS use a Stop Loss... so I know my potential loss straight away
If you are trading an amount that makes you so anxious and worried that you feel the need to continually look at the market, then you are risking too much!!!
You need to bring it down to a more ¡°emotionally¡± manageable level in the short term. Remember, you are wanting to do this for the rest of your life, so move it to a level where trading becomes interesting and pleasant, rather than stressful.
I ALWAYS use a Stop Loss... so I know my potential loss straight away
If you are trading an amount that makes you so anxious and worried that you feel the need to continually look at the market, then you are risking too much!!!
You need to bring it down to a more ¡°emotionally¡± manageable level in the short term. Remember, you are wanting to do this for the rest of your life, so move it to a level where trading becomes interesting and pleasant, rather than stressful.
5. When I have placed a trade, I let it play itself out. As I said in the blog last week;
You can always make a decision to close a trade if you think that it is going to go against you. I personally have found that, in the majority of cases where I have made a decision while I was IN the trade, it has turned out to be the wrong decision (because the emotions get in the way).
An alternative solution is to only keep a trade while it is in the positive...if it falls back to your buy price, then sell out for zero profit/loss. But again, in the majority of cases where I made that decision, it has turned out to be the wrong decision.¡±
You can always make a decision to close a trade if you think that it is going to go against you. I personally have found that, in the majority of cases where I have made a decision while I was IN the trade, it has turned out to be the wrong decision (because the emotions get in the way).
An alternative solution is to only keep a trade while it is in the positive...if it falls back to your buy price, then sell out for zero profit/loss. But again, in the majority of cases where I made that decision, it has turned out to be the wrong decision.¡±
6. If I have done all the above, then I don¡¯t ¡°need¡± to worry about the trade.
And I just let the trade play itself out...and help carry Mrs Jacko's bags while she goes shopping
And I just let the trade play itself out...and help carry Mrs Jacko's bags while she goes shopping
On another note, I will be off air on for a couple of days as we are heading back to Hong Kong later in the week.
Jacko
Edit 8.45am 1.4557 has been the highest high so far, so TSL adjusted to 1.4457. (Alternatively, if you wish,
you may want to move it to your buy price so you have a loss free trade in play).
you may want to move it to your buy price so you have a loss free trade in play).
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 53
It is 10.30am NY time Friday February 15 and the market is at 1.4692.
I am now back in Hong Kong. (you can tell...everyone here walks three times faster). It is nice to be back. It will also be nice to see the London opens at a civilised hour again.
My two trades are looking very healthy. My buy at 1.4521 is nicely in profit and my fallen soldier at 1.4612 has risen again and is covering himself in glory.
As outlined in the previous message, I was considering reducing the TSL back to 50 pips AFTER it has moved 150 pips in our favour. However, I am putting that on hold for the present time as I think that I will ...wait. Yes, patience is a virtue. Plus I want to see how strong this market is early next week.
I think that maybe, just maybe, we have found a solution to our problem (that is, not letting the bigger guys beat us up and knock us out by using big volatility swings).
As stated in Message 50, I have made a decision that, from (Feb 11) until the volatility decreases back to its normal range, I will be trading with 100 pip Trailing Stop Losses. On the other hand, we want to retain as much of our profits and I am certainly not keen on being stopped out by the 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss and giving back 100 pips unnecessarily.
So I might retain the 100 pips TSL, but when it reaches a strong resistance point, such as 1.4750 we may reduce the TSL to 50 pips or even take the more aggressive approach of collapsing the TSL and selling at the resistance point.
So I might retain the 100 pips TSL, but when it reaches a strong resistance point, such as 1.4750 we may reduce the TSL to 50 pips or even take the more aggressive approach of collapsing the TSL and selling at the resistance point.
But at the moment, I am content to stay in the trades with the 100 pip TSL and have another look at it over the weekend when I am a bit fresher.
To each of you, I hope you had an enjoyable Valentines Day.
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 54
It is 2.00am NY time Monday February 18 and the market is at 1.4679.
It is 2.00am NY time Monday February 18 and the market is at 1.4679.
It is now 3.00pm in Hong Kong....I have had a very relaxing morning, a beautiful lunch and I am about to start work.....London opens in one hour.
Live notes below
My two buys at 1.4521 and 1.4612 are both doing well.
However, if you look at Message 53, we were at 1.4692 when I wrote that message...so we have given a small number of pips back.
However, if you look at Message 53, we were at 1.4692 when I wrote that message...so we have given a small number of pips back.
There was another attempt on Friday to shake out some traders with another 52 pip drop (from 1.4708 to 1.4656, at 10 am and 1.10pm NY time respectively).
While I believe that this market is heading back up to the 1.4900's, I also think that there may be a 100+ retracement soon...so we have to be careful.
I will update this soon...just have to go out for a 30 minutes
Edit 4.18 am NY time
Market is looking heavy. If you wish to lock in profits at this point, (1.4640) you may be making the correct decision. The support at 1.4632 is reasonably strong and may be close to the bottom. However, if I am wrong, it may drop to our 100 pips TSL.
Edit 9.10am NY time Hello NY !!!... Market came close to our 100 pip TSL of 1.4608 (1.4708 - 100 = 1.4608)!!!
The market low was 1.4610 so we were very close. Market has retraced back up to 1.4631... Again, if you wish
to lock in profits at this point, (1.4631) you may be making the correct decision.
The market low was 1.4610 so we were very close. Market has retraced back up to 1.4631... Again, if you wish
to lock in profits at this point, (1.4631) you may be making the correct decision.
Edit 11.10 pm NY time I am still in. Market has recovered to 1.4661. (whew...that was close !).
Emails
Hi Jacko
I am wondering why you thought the market would retrace 100+ pips...
The market had had a big rise last week. It had about 3- 4 50 pip dips trying to shake out traders. There is usually one big (80- 100 pips) dip to get the slightly bigger traders. Then it either keeps on falling or reverses back up. (In this case it dropped 98 pips from its high of 1.4708...close, very close...and has reversed back up to 1.4630"s) It will be interesting to see what the "B team" of traders (those who work the public holiday shifts) in the US do today.
I am wondering why you thought the market would retrace 100+ pips...
The market had had a big rise last week. It had about 3- 4 50 pip dips trying to shake out traders. There is usually one big (80- 100 pips) dip to get the slightly bigger traders. Then it either keeps on falling or reverses back up. (In this case it dropped 98 pips from its high of 1.4708...close, very close...and has reversed back up to 1.4630"s) It will be interesting to see what the "B team" of traders (those who work the public holiday shifts) in the US do today.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 55
It is 3.35am NY time (4.35pm HK time) Tuesday February 19 and the market is at 1.4734.
See live posts and new emails below
I am now attempting to post when London opens (around 4pm HK time) and when NY opens (around 9pm HK time).
Unfortunately I am running a little late today.... a herd of elephants couldn't pull Mrs Jacko from her favourite dress shop !!!
My two buys at 1.4521 and 1.4612 are both doing very well.
We had a bit of a scare at 1.4610 when our stops were at 1.4608, but we survived and we are now out of the woods. As I said yesterday, "While I believe that this market is heading back up to the 1.4900's, I also think that there may be a 100+ retracement soon...so we have to be careful".
When you are trading the number of contracts that I have, (which was double what I usually trade, due to the A-H trade, then you start to sweat a little when it gets to two pips from your TSL...Mrs Jacko would not have been pleased).
When you are trading the number of contracts that I have, (which was double what I usually trade, due to the A-H trade, then you start to sweat a little when it gets to two pips from your TSL...Mrs Jacko would not have been pleased).
However, we have now had our 100 pip retracement and should be safe from another one for a couple of days. I am also reasonably sure that we will now slide through 1.4750 and head towards 1.4900. However there may be another retracement of around 50 pips at the 1.4800 mark, so I may unload some at 1.4800 and try to buy back "on the cheap". Alternatively I may just add another half load, but I would be getting nervous at that number of contracts.
In hindsight, and as an attempt to improve our trading, lets review what happened yesterday and the possible scenarios of what we "could or should" have done:
1. Sold out at 4700
Positives.
(a) It would have been the high and would have saved us a lot of concern.
(b) It was a round number (4700) and it was a 50% Fib from 4941 (at 8am Feb 1) to 4438 (at 1pm Feb 7).
Negatives.
(a) It would be making a guess at where the market may top out. This may have worked this time...but I have always found that, if I get it wrong, I tend to beat myself up about it, so I prefer a mechanical (TSL) method to get me out of all trades.
Positives.
(a) It would have been the high and would have saved us a lot of concern.
(b) It was a round number (4700) and it was a 50% Fib from 4941 (at 8am Feb 1) to 4438 (at 1pm Feb 7).
Negatives.
(a) It would be making a guess at where the market may top out. This may have worked this time...but I have always found that, if I get it wrong, I tend to beat myself up about it, so I prefer a mechanical (TSL) method to get me out of all trades.
2. Modified 100 pip stop loss to 50 pip stop loss.
Positives.
(a) `It would have been close to the high and and have saved us a lot of concern.
Negatives
Positives.
(a) `It would have been close to the high and and have saved us a lot of concern.
Negatives
(a) If we had used that decision (to reduce TSL to 50 pips) last week, we would have been stopped out a number of times at a possible loss.
(b) The increased volatility of the Euro makes the 50 pips TSL as a standard trading tool non-viable at the moment. I have been looking at the GBP/USD lately and the volatility just makes my eyes water and my ass pucker...I believe that it is almost untradable by small traders...the multiple drawdowns would be horrendous,
and there would be fallen A-H soldiers all over the place.
I am soooo glad I stayed away from GBP.
(b) The increased volatility of the Euro makes the 50 pips TSL as a standard trading tool non-viable at the moment. I have been looking at the GBP/USD lately and the volatility just makes my eyes water and my ass pucker...I believe that it is almost untradable by small traders...the multiple drawdowns would be horrendous,
and there would be fallen A-H soldiers all over the place.
I am soooo glad I stayed away from GBP.
3. Used 100 pip stop loss
Positives
(a) We were not stopped out by the volatility and we were in the correct position to take advantage of the
upswing that has now taken us to a higher level. (More good luck than skill !!)
(b) It is a mechanical system that takes all the emotion out of "whether I have done the right thing"
Negatives
(a) I got concerned as it approached the 100 pip TSL mark...but I had to let the trade play itself out
(b) IF I had got out earlier, I coulda, shoulda, woulda have got back in at the lower prices.
Summary
A lot of 1. and 2. (above) are based on 20/20 hindsight. (It is always easy to see the best method AFTER the event...unfortunately we do not have that luxury when we are in a trade).
A lot of 1. and 2. (above) are based on 20/20 hindsight. (It is always easy to see the best method AFTER the event...unfortunately we do not have that luxury when we are in a trade).
Also the fact is that the rules of a mechanical TSL took most of the emotion and decision making process out of the equation, so there is much less emotional "beating myself up" for a wrong decision.
Finally, as I have said previously, making a decision when you are in a trade is the worst time to make a decision. Every time that I have done so, it has been the wrong decision.
Emails
1.Hi Jacko, I am wondering why you thought the market would retrace 100+ pips
The market had had a big rise last week. It had about 3- 4 50 pip dips trying to shake out traders. There is usually one big (80- 100 pips) dip to get the slightly bigger traders. Then it either keeps on falling or reverses back up.
2. I am reading through your prior posts and need some clarification on exactly what you mean by "buying on dips". It is when you can feel the strength of a long term trend and you know that it will continue for a long time (because the Euro trends in a direction for years) ....then the market drops, say 50 -100 pips...you know the trend hasn't changed, so it is just a dip
3. I need some clarification here. What platform are you using? My understanding of the trailing stop is that it will only move up 50 pips once we are 50 pips in profit. I move all my stops manually...because I don't trust computers. Mark (an ex broker who now trades with me) updates the stops if I am unavailable. Hence buying at 1460 with stop at 1455, the stop would move to 1460 when price is at 1465, atleast according to FX Solutions. But reading your post #5 on the forum, it seams to me that your stop is continually moving with the price, as long as it keeps it's distance. You mentioned buying at 4644 and then price rising to 4688. You then calculate the stop as being (4688-50) to give 4638, but 4688 is not 50 pips in profit with regard to the purchase price of 4644. Can you please explain? Simple, you place your trade...you place stop at 50 pips below your purchase price....when market goes above your purchase price, wait for it to reach a high and then start to fall, then move your stop to 50 pip below the high. Then wait for the next high and repeat. Its not that hard... for our last trade, (1.4521) we have moved the stop, I think, about three or four times, with the final one at 100 pips below the 1.4708 high. (We are now hoping for a new high !!!)
4. (A follow on from email 3) So does this mean we have to keep monitoring the trade constantly to watch for highs and move stops? Or in such cases where a large chunk of the day is taken up by daily jobs, we just have to rely on the platform trailing stop? In your case, I would use a manual stop of 100 pips and just adjust whenever you get the opportunity. It won't make that big a difference really. People are always amazed at how rarely I change the TSL...it doesn't have to be pip by pip as most people seem to think. For example, the current 4521 trade, I moved the TSL to 4708 some three hours AFTER it hit 4708... when the
market was at 4660. I havent needed to move it again, though because I am at the computer now (and the market went to 4741 some four hours ago) I will now move the TSL to 1.4641. No big deal. It is very rare that the market will drop 100 pips in a short period (except on the news). BUT you ALWAYS have a stop in place, even if it is an old one
market was at 4660. I havent needed to move it again, though because I am at the computer now (and the market went to 4741 some four hours ago) I will now move the TSL to 1.4641. No big deal. It is very rare that the market will drop 100 pips in a short period (except on the news). BUT you ALWAYS have a stop in place, even if it is an old one
5. This was a nice email
Morning Jacko.
Nice trading Sir. Thank you
I nearly closed the 4612 at around the 4650 level, just to lock some in, Patience but was going to re asses this
morning.
Morning Jacko.
Nice trading Sir. Thank you
I nearly closed the 4612 at around the 4650 level, just to lock some in, Patience but was going to re asses this
morning.
I have to be honest, didn't want to enter that trade, but the order was on the books, so had to take it. YES !!!! Exactly !
The 100 pip stops are looking good, I halved the amount, to retain the same risk. Good move
Was interesting last week, the amount of 50 pip pull backs, from intra day highs. Yes, the volatility is getting bigger...a big move is on the way
A great start to the week. Yes and I am back in my comfort zone of being in my "home"
Still learning. Aren't we all ???
Once again, many thanks
The 100 pip stops are looking good, I halved the amount, to retain the same risk. Good move
Was interesting last week, the amount of 50 pip pull backs, from intra day highs. Yes, the volatility is getting bigger...a big move is on the way
A great start to the week. Yes and I am back in my comfort zone of being in my "home"
Still learning. Aren't we all ???
Once again, many thanks
6. I really enjoy watching the journal every day. It`s like having started a second life.
Sometimes I´m waking up in the early morning only with one thought: Is there a new message ? .... ...This morning I decided not to wait any longer and to jump in the water. That`s why I wanted to ask you, if you could also mention some possible re-entries in a currently running trade.
Of course I know the theory with dips in trend direction, but.....
Thanks for your kind words
1. Wait for a 50 pip drop, say from 1.4755 to 1.4705. (Note: No need to rush, there will be a 50 pip drop very soon..)
2. Buy with a 100 pip stop loss.
3. Wait for market to go up
Edit 5.45am NY time I have just moved my TSL to 1.4641 (it hit 4741 some three hours ago) ... oh looky, the markets going up again
Edit 7.44am NY time Market looks good for a quick surge to 1.4800
Edit 9.45 am NY Time Maybe it won't be so quick... I am so bored I just moved my TSL to 1.4656. Am going to bed for an early night with "she who must be obeyed". She tells me that she bought a new nightie today...LOL
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 56
It is 9.10pm NY time Tuesday February 19 and the market is at 1.4725.
Market seems to be going nowhere. But it feels heavy. I am closing all my positions and will (hopefully) buy again lower later in the day.
EDIT 1.00am NY Time Am sitting out of the market till NY opens. I want to have a fresh look at the market with unbiased eyes.
I am feeling much more settled since I arrived back in Hong Kong. Also, the modification of the 100 pip TSL's has slowed the market down to suit me more. I feel a though I kinda lost sight of my own methods for a while. The increased volatility of the market, and the 50 pip TSL's were making me feel as though I was trading at triple speed. I am feeling much more back in balance and back into my trading rythm since I arrived back.
Emails
1. I think I will be trying a counter trend trade here. This is an experiment. And I want to learn to pull the
trigger when I think I have a good feel for the market.1.4655 is when I reversed from a buy to a sell with a
counter trend trade 50 pips SL. I hope it goes well for you.
1. I think I will be trying a counter trend trade here. This is an experiment. And I want to learn to pull the
trigger when I think I have a good feel for the market.1.4655 is when I reversed from a buy to a sell with a
counter trend trade 50 pips SL. I hope it goes well for you.
Followed by this, a day later
I am learning great nuances about trading following your blog. I want to share what I learned here with this counter trade of my own. I know I lost. I am not trying to look at what I woulda coulda shoulda done. I am content. I had a plan. I executed. I did not get overly excited I did not get scared I did not get greedy.
Excellent
In fact I took a trade against you but what I learned and what I feel very good about is that it DID NOT AFFECT ME EMOTIONALLY one single bit. Getting to that level is priceless and worth the 34 pips I lost. You have just "got it"..the proper trader mentality CONGRATULATIONS !!!
Excellent
In fact I took a trade against you but what I learned and what I feel very good about is that it DID NOT AFFECT ME EMOTIONALLY one single bit. Getting to that level is priceless and worth the 34 pips I lost. You have just "got it"..the proper trader mentality CONGRATULATIONS !!!
2. I closed both my 4500 long and an AH from 4666 today @ 4745 and banked 324 pips..thanks :) Good
I realise it may go higher but I am more than happy with that and will now look to buy dips. Altho I may not (yet) be making consistent big pips, the experience of trading your method over the past few months has been fantastic - more so in light of the more volatile market conditions.
Yes, but I am getting back into my rythm.
The volatility was causing me some irritation but the move to 100 pip TSLs has brought back the feeling of how I used to trade...nice and easy. The volatility was causing me to feel that I was trading too fast
The volatility was causing me some irritation but the move to 100 pip TSLs has brought back the feeling of how I used to trade...nice and easy. The volatility was causing me to feel that I was trading too fast
3. I will be looking for a possible short if we breech 1.49 if the price action suggest it but i won't rush anything.
Patience is the key and if i have to wait a few weeks for a big retracement than so be it.
Take care...we are building to a BIG move soon...when the market pops 1.4950 all hell is going to break loose....But I could be wrong!!!! I think the market is fed up with all the bullsh*t and fraud going on in the US financial system and are ready to demonstrate their very real disagreement with the US Govt and financial
regulators...there is a lot if frustration and anger by foreign governments out there ...simply put, they have lost faith in the US financial system
Take care...we are building to a BIG move soon...when the market pops 1.4950 all hell is going to break loose....But I could be wrong!!!! I think the market is fed up with all the bullsh*t and fraud going on in the US financial system and are ready to demonstrate their very real disagreement with the US Govt and financial
regulators...there is a lot if frustration and anger by foreign governments out there ...simply put, they have lost faith in the US financial system
Jacko
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 57
Well, we did well with our closing all the trades earlier today. (I apologise for waking up our European members of the group).
I closed all my 4521's and 4612's at 1.4724 for a very profitable 300 + pips (203 and 112 pips respectively).
Multiplied by my large number of lots and I think I can afford Mrs Jacko's shopping bills for, gee, maybe, a month...LOL
I closed all my 4521's and 4612's at 1.4724 for a very profitable 300 + pips (203 and 112 pips respectively).
Multiplied by my large number of lots and I think I can afford Mrs Jacko's shopping bills for, gee, maybe, a month...LOL
I am looking to buy but I am not going to be rushed. (If you wish to trade more often than me, feel free). I am feeling good and I am back to my old self.
I am interested in buying but I want to see where this downdraft is going to go. I might wait till it hits back closer to its recent lows of 1.4620's. (The Euro is certainly getting volatile ).
Emails
1. I have received a number of emails along the lines of this email:
Thank you for the advice to exit yesterday at 9pm NYT. What did you see or feel that showed this particular rally was over?
I will answer this tomorrow...
Edit 10.35am NY time I am off to bed (it is 11.35pm here) Market is at 1.4652 and is looking heavy again.
Will wait a bit longer for a buy. Am not interested in a short position
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 58
It is 12.47 am NY time Thursday February 21 and the market is at 1.4712.
Live updates below
The market is back (almost) to where we closed all our trades. I am still looking for a buying opportunity. A buy at 1.4620 would have been nice but I was waiting for 1.4600. The market at 1.4714 (where it is at the moment) is not good enough value to me. I like to buy "cheap".
Will wait. The fish are nibbling, and I missed a bite at the low 4620 yesterday....I was interested at 4600 but it never got there. Plenty more fish in the forex ocean.
Will be back for US opening.
Edit 8.47am NY time The market doesn't have much direction at the present time It has been sitting at 1.4725 plus or minus 15 pips for the last 18 hours.
To buy at these levels means that we may capture a rise in the market. But when it is not a bargain/discount, it exposes us to a potentially unnecessary drawdown. I would rather wait for a pull back and buy then. (If it does go shooting up from here, I can always console myself with all the woulda, coulda, shoulda scenarios....LOL).
To buy at these levels means that we may capture a rise in the market. But when it is not a bargain/discount, it exposes us to a potentially unnecessary drawdown. I would rather wait for a pull back and buy then. (If it does go shooting up from here, I can always console myself with all the woulda, coulda, shoulda scenarios....LOL).
I will wait for another decent pull back. IF the market falls, then depending on how hard and fast it falls, I may be a buyer. (At the present time I am not interested in buying unless it is 1.14650 or lower). If the market hits 1.4650, I will then start to be interested at seeing where I can get in.
Edit 11.20pm NY time Market has risen quickly. You could actually feel the pressure building at 1.4750. It was just bumping up against the high 4740's and you knew that there would be a whole lot of short stops just above 4750. Then the market momentum carried it to 4800. Market making an attempt to fall back (profit taking). Currently at 4787.
Emails
1. I still have the urge that I need to be in the market all the time Nooo....you will be digging yourself out of bad positions all the time so working on this problem. just stop (over)trading
Question . If we now have 100 TSL and we get taken out at a loss do we wait for market to go lower by 100 or 50 pips before placing orders got wounded soldiers? 50 pips
2. When you make your posts on the Blog, sometimes before you have posted, we are now commenting to each other what we think Jacko will post next and see how close we are to getting our thoughts process correct. My wife and I have a similar game...when we are out shopping she will just ask me where I think the market is...I am often surprised at how close I can be sometimes...It is a good game to play...After a while, I think everyone can get good at it...it helps develop a "feel" for the market. Most people start playing the game thinking that the market moves much further than it actually does. After a while you find that it tends to fluctuate around main Support/Resistance numbers, but moves gradually in the direction of the trend.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 59
It is 3.00 am NY time Friday February 22 and the market is at 1.4810.
Live update below
After yesterday's quick run up, I am hoping for a mild pull back today.
I don't usually open new positions on a Friday, especially during NY time and especially after lunch NY time.
I find that having a new open position tends to distract me when I have a position over the weekend. I prefer to have either a flat position or, alternatively a position that I have held for some time and is reasonably safe.
However, nothing is set in concrete and I may still place a trade if the market moves down sufficiently.
Edit 3.15am NY time. London is open and seeing early weakness. Down to 4792. Still too high, and too late in the week, to buy. But if it comes down hard in London trading I may be a buyer for the US opening.
Edit 8.15am NY time NY is up and running with a quick run up to 4860. It will be interesting if NY takes it much higher. Market at 4841. It is Still too high, and (almost) too late in the week, to buy. (As a corollary to that, there is a saying in stock broking that amateurs buy in the morning and the professionals buy in the
afternoon....I am not sure if it applies to Forex)
afternoon....I am not sure if it applies to Forex)
Emails
1. I received this email (Below in black. My response in red). I am going to try to explain those types of things much more comprehensively when I write them in future.
Hi Jacko, I've been in the 2nd group for only a few days, but have already figured out what it is I need to learn.
The thing that I haven't got is your 'reading' of the market.
What sources of information or analysis are you using when you say ?
The thing that I haven't got is your 'reading' of the market.
What sources of information or analysis are you using when you say ?
'You could actually feel the pressure building '
'it feels heavy'
'I also believe that the downdraft is almost over'
'The market looks a little weak at the moment'
Intuition... developed over many years of trading experience ?? I will attempt to be more precise when I am
posting on the blog in future
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