MESSAGE FROM JACKO 231
It is 2.10am NY time Friday October 31 and the market is at 1.2814
Update below
As expected has Euro has dropped ....albeit earlier than I expected. (it has dropped 400 pips since my post yesterday...that would have been jawdropping news for the Euro 4 months ago....now it is just ho‐hum....such is the increase in volatility in the last three months). It also shows how much fear there still is out in the banking sectors that the USD is still seen as the safest haven. This market is moving back to have another attempt at the 50% Fib at 1.2130..?? Geoff currently has a pending sell trade at 1.2740 at the break of 1.2744. (The low from 8.30pm NY time Oct 30).
Edit 6.45am NY time Market moved to 1.2700. Stop loss was moved to break even. The market moved to a low of 1.2665 If it moved to 1.2640 the TSL of 100 pips would have been put in place.
Market moved back to 1.2735 so I closed out at break even (plus a couple of pips for the effort). Geoff has re‐entered at 1.2740. I have just joined him for a second sell trade at 1.2740
Edit 11.00am NY time Market at 1.2714 I am feeling comfortable with this trade and consider that the market looks weak. However, I have decided that I don't wish to be holding a position over the weekend. I will be closing my position at 2.oopm NY time exactly, irrespective of the price. (The market low has been 1.2680 since I entered the trade. I have a TSL now in place at 1.2780)
Edit 5.30pm NY time My position was closed out at 2pm NY time exactly at 1.2728 for a small 12 pip profit.
Emails
Please excuse my delays in responding to emails at the present time....I have had a flu that has given me headaches and the last thing I want to do is look at a computer screen.... I am off to the optometrists to get my spectacles prescription checked and updated. I will be answering emails again as from next Monday.
Please be assured that I answer every email...and in the time order that they are received.
Also I have been reasonably busy with our expansion and re‐organisation.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 230
It is 2.00am NY time Thursday October 30 and the market is at 1.3229
Update below
As stated in Message 228 on Tuesday "Just as the market was driven lower yesterday by the fact that Trichet stated that an ECB rate cut was virtually a certainty next week, the Euro is today rising on the belief that the US will be even more aggressive in its rate cuts tomorrow. ...... I think that we are seeing a short term rally in the Euro (maybe back up to that 1.2734 area where there are multiple lows from Oct 21, 22 and 23) as a reaction to the steep falls in the Euro." The market has driven higher than I expected but I expect that the Euro will fall back again next week when the ECB and Bank of England both announce their next round of rate cuts.
Unfortunately, because I was confined to bed with the flu and Mrs Jacko refused to allow anyone to disturb me, I totally missed the buying opportunity. (And even though Mark made some very profitable trades, he refuses to have anything to do with this blog or SMS text messages so it has left a void that needs to be filled regarding notifications to each of you when I am asleep or not available to post on the blog). However, as a result of this missed opportunity (and as discussed in Email 2 in Message 228 below), I have decided to rapidly accelerate plans to bring in two of our most talented traders from Group 1 and to move to a full‐scale 24 hour trading operation. In addition Geoff has now decided to again allow us to include his trades.
This will entail MANY more SMS messages, so if you have a concern about being woken at various times because of the time zones, I suggest that you either notify us that you don't wish to receive them or turn your cell phones to silent when you don't wish to be disturbed. Also, as part of this process of growth, we have decided that the Managed Fund will also be increased in size... we have notified Marks nine current investors this morning (HK time) that we are increasing the maximum limit size for them from $100,000 to $250,000. In a huge vote of confidence in Mark and myself I am pleased to state that all nine have agreed to immediately increase their investments to the maximum figure. We will also be talking to some ten to twelve more of Marks investor clients over the next few days.
The advantage of this is that we will be looking for one or two more traders from our groups in the coming months probably with starts in January or February 2009. (More on that later... we will be asking for details from interested traders later...please don't bombard me with emails just at the moment)
Edit 11.55am NY time As expected the Euro is dropping ....albeit earlier than I expected. It just shows how much fear there still is out in the banking sectors that the USD is still seen as the safest haven. This market is moving back to have another attempt at the 50% Fib at 1.2130..??
Emails
Please excuse my delays in responding to emails at the present time....I have had a flu that has given me headaches and the last thing I wnt to do is look at a computer screen..I will be answering emails as soon as I can. Also I have been reasonably busy with our expansion and re‐organisation.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 229
It is 1.45am NY time Wednesday October 29 and the market is at 1.2685
My sell trade at 1.2750 was triggered. After a near death experience at 1.2844, the market then fell to 1.2625 and I was stopped out at 1.2725 (1.2625 + 100 = 1.2725) for a small 25 pip gain.
My other sell trade at 1.2320 has now been cancelled as it appears unlikely to be triggered
Emails
Email 1
I noticed that you dont set profit targets. I like to set a profit target, an area that should be strong support/resistance, and sell half my position then let the rest get taken out by tsl. I'd love to know your thoughts on this strategy. It is a reasonable strategy...it is just `not something that I do. I have found the TSL works best for me (emotionally and financially) I noticed that you recently started playing
breakouts. yes, I have a better respect for them after see Geoff trade They have been working very well in this market lately.yes Last week offered a couple of very nice trades. I usually like to let the support area break by 11‐12 pips. It seems to help me avoid getting stuck in a false breakout. Yes, that is the disadvantage of breakout
Email 2 (I like this one)
Hi Jacko, How could this happen after tax payee bailed them out!!!!! (see below)
(NEW YORK) Five straight quarters of losses and a 70 per cent slide in its stock this year haven't stopped Merrill Lynch from allocating about US$6.7 billion to pay bonuses.
Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley, both still on track for profitable years, have set aside about US$13 billion for bonuses after three quarters, down 28 per cent from a year ago.
Even some employees at Lehman Brothers Holdings, which declared the biggest bankruptcy in US history last month, will get the same bonus they received a year ago.
Find me a job in one of these banks ‐ the best idiot deal you never get in life!!! LOL
Email 3
Could you please elaboreate a bit more on how you trade the breakouts? I suspect that in a downtrending market you wait for the lowest low to be broken and then wait for the price to come back to the .previous. support level, which is now a resistance. Geoff actually didn't really worry about waiting for the return to the support level....he just waited fore the low to be broken and hit the button...I have been happy to use that principle as well I would like to know if there is a certain number of pips you would like to see the price move below the previous support area No he just hit it about 5 pips below...whereas I prefer to round down to a 00,50 or even a 25 number or is the fact that the support was broken good enough reason to take the trade when the price comes back? He never waited for it to come back What about the trading range markets? Do you establish a .channel. which contains the current range and if the price breaks out of the channel, you do the same as in the previously described example? Yes a channel is just a series of similar highs and lows
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 228
It is 3.15am NY time Tuesday October 28 and the market is at 1.2550
Just as the market was driven lower yesterday by the fact that Trichet stated that an ECB rate cut was virtually a certainty next week, the Euro is today rising on the belief that the US will be even more aggressive in its rate cuts tomorrow. (The problem with attempting to whip the market along using interest rate cuts is the issue of what happens when interest rates get so low...less than 1%...that there is no room lower to go?? The Central Banks then realise pretty quickly that they have very little weaponry left after that. Japan found that out to its extreme economic pain in the last 10 years).
As stated yesterday, I think that we are seeing a short term rally in the Euro (maybe back up to that 1.2734 area where there are multiple lows from Oct 21, 22 and 23) as a reaction to the steep falls in the Euro. As a result of the above, I am placing a sell on stop order at the 1.2750. (This is my usual type trade of selling at a bargain/round number at the Resistance line of 1.2734)
However, I also think that the Euro still has the potential to move as far as the 1.2130 mark which is the 50% fib number from 0.8220 (in Oct 2000) to 1.6037 (in July 2008) in the medium term
So, I am also placing a second sell on stop order at 1.2320 on the break of the current low of 1.2328 (this is a Geoff style trade that I am happy to trade).
Emails
Email 1
Based on what we are seeing with the E/U and the stock market today, do you feel we may hit a bottom next week? The E/U has had an extremely volatile day today. It looks like your prediction of 1.2130 may come to fruition next week. I think that we are gettin close to a short term bottom... I am not convinced that the governments of the world have this under control ...or are even close to having this under
control.
Email 2
Some time ago you said that the fund is a way for the group members to gain prop trading experience, could you please elaborate on that?
Yes, the first group has been trading now for almost one year. (The second group is even less) We have identified some excellent traders in the group. As this Fund project starts to mature, we are starting to move things to a much more professional basis, with the establishment of a separate office, Admin staff to look after all the paper work issues, and, very soon, longer "trading" hours to give us a full 24 hour business. A brand new business website is currently in the works.
My intent has always been to have a facility to allow traders to gain (very controlled) experience in trading a Fund so as to give them experience in a boutique Fund that they can add to their resume and to have a 24 hour trading environment (even Mark and I need sleep).
The Fund is coming to the close of its first quarter and we are gradually moving more and more into a formalised Fund Management business. While our results to date have been good (better than 48% annualised), there were more trades that I could have done that were profitable trades but we took a longer term approach and Mark wants to have progressively increasing returns over time.
I believe that the Fund will gradually evolve over time into a full scale boutique Fund. The account as currently stands has nine private investors (private clients of Mark) who have each contributed the maximum ($100,000) that we allowed each of them. However, these nine investors do NOT have the profit guarantee.
The members of the Jackson private group have contributed a smaller amount of just over $100,000 which has a guarantee of a minimum 7.5% per quarter ( 30%pa) for the first year. The Fund is performing better than the above target and so we are quite happy with it. (No one has ask for any redemptions...so they must be happy also) I have been trading it very cautiously but have been lucky with one or two trades and so we have good results to date. It was also Marks little project as far as setting up my own Fund for his investor friends that know both Mark and I. It was my insistence that the smaller funds from the group members be given a benefit from the larger investors deposits/profits that made me decide to proceed with it As stated previously we have the potential to increase our size easily to the $5‐10 million+ size, simply by tapping more of Marks investors and also allowing his existing members to invest more than the $100,000 limit. As time progresses we will be looking to expand, but I am in no hurry to grow in an uncontrolled manner.
If you want to see more about the project, please read... (Message 211 below)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 227
It is 3.30am NY time Monday October 27 and the market is at 1.2475
Another day...and another low. The market has just broken below the low of 1.2494 set last friday (at 5.35am NY time) . However, I am a bit suspicious of this break...I probably should have traded it but the market is very thin at the moment in Asian trade and I am a not real sure if this break is a real break or a trap.
Edit 8.45am NY time Market dropped to 1.2333 in early European trade but has recovered back to 1.2450 so I am not convinced it is still not a trap. When market commentators start saying that a 320 point drop on the Dow is better than they expected, then we have a serious case of delusion still in the market. Such misplaced optimism leads me to think that there may be a short term rally in the Stocks this week, even though the Futures market is pricing in a 170 point drop for today.
even though the Futures market is pricing in a 170 point drop for today.
We may also see a reaction to the steep falls in the Euro this week.
However, as outlined in Message 223, the Euro still has the potential to move as far as the 1.2130 mark which is the 50% fib number from 0.8220 (in Oct 2000) to 1.6037 (in July 2008).
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 226
It is 2.35am NY time Friday October 24 and the market is at 1.2747
My 1.2725 sell order is still in place, waiting to be triggered.
Edit 3.05am NY time. Target has been hit. I am short at 1.2725. Market has dropped to as low as 1.2663. I have now moved my stop to Break even at 1.2723 (okay, so I want 1 or 2 pips for Marks winning profit figures)
Edit 6.50am NY time My 100 pip TSL was just hit at 1.2594 (the low was 1.2494) A nice easy 131 pips.
Emails
Email 1
Jacko ‐‐ I always love to hear of your travels ‐ just to know you are "living the life", not just the trading (though that is a fun part of life most times!) I go to Beijing and the Euro craters,,,, I was having a quick vacation in Seoul and the Euro craters again...??? What is it?? Is someone looking at my travel schedule???
What times we are in! History in the making. definitely!!!!! .. HOPE YOU HAD A FABULOUS TRIP! Thanks, but it turned out to be an expensive one since I missed the potential to make some profits from the (earlier) drop
Email 2
What do you mean "I have just placed a pending sell on stop order at 1.2725." It means that I have placed an order to sell at 1.2725.
However, the market has to trade at 1.2725 before my order is activated.
Followed by this email
Thanks for the clarification.....I thought so however the term "on stop order" through some cloudiness on the understanding for me.....I had the same order out today and came very close 2x of being pickup....Glad it did not happen...The pair went the other direction...It would have been a quick 100pip loss.... Yes we were lucky....That compensates for the times when an order is just missed by two pips that then goes on to make 100+ pips
Thanks for the help and patience on dumb questions, There are no dumb questions...just things you don't know yet
Email 3
i wanna ask you a stupid question maybe , but i cant hold it , do you know a way to make 10 or even 5 pip a day almost safe . Hmmm, yes, but if you can make 10 pips regularly then you can make more than 10 pips regularly.....It is a matter of minimising risk and trading with a set strategy rather than random trading...I have been learning that from Mark in our Managed Fund....He is adamant that losses be kept to an absolute minimum even if it means that we make trades that are forced to go to break even faster than I usually do in a normal personal trade if yes tell me please . man dont laugh at me I would never do that
Email 4
please what is oyur Stop loss for your SELL order at 1.2725? 100 pips
Do you have fixed 100 pips Stop loss or 100 pips Trailing stop loss for this Short trade? 100 TSL Will you move your Stop Loss to Break Even after 40 pips profit? yes
What is the reason for your Short trade at 1.2725? Break out trade below the low of 1.2727
Why dont you wait for Bargain(retracement) Up to 1.3256? Too long to wait....but it is still an option
I am in your group and you never traded BreakOut. can you explain me your thought. I would like understand your trades. It is adding a little of Geoffs technique. At the moment there are no applicable 50% Fibs, trend lines are too steep, and round numbers are too "light‐weight" as supports at the moment.
What technical analysis reason for short on breakout at 1.2725. Break of the low
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 225
It is 1.55am NY time Thursday October 23 and the market is at 1.2812
We are again seeing panic around the world in the equity markets. Wall St dropped another 6.59% which in turn has translated into a 7.5% drop in the Nikkei and Hong Kong's hang Seng index down almost 5%. The open of Europe's stockmarkets will be "interesting."
I see that even Australia, where the AUD has been absolutely hammered into the ground, has lost 4% in the stockmarket today. That is a country that is a commodity‐export based economy, so the low AUD should be a huge benefit to its export companies. Yet their mining companies are being hammered as well. Interesting times...
The end result of all this mayhem is that investment funds by US companies will be liquidated and repatriated back to the US as the US sinks deeper into the mire of the credit crisis. Consequently, there will be further increases in the strength of the USD in the near future.
The issue with trading the market at the present time is NOT choosing the direction of the move...It is clearly downwards. The issue is to be able to maintain a position without being whipped out by the volatility. When you have a situation where the market is moving 150‐200 pips (both up and down) in an hour or two, then Stop Losses of even 100 pips become almost redundant.
The solution, given this volatility is to become even more selective in your trades, have firm price targets for the initial sell/buy, place solid Stop Losses, watch the trade much closer and..... (when you are not able to adequately monitor the trade) close all positions.
Any trader who is trading at the same volume or frequency as prior to the start of the market slide is trading dangerously.
Having said all that, I am looking for a strong position to sell. However, the lowest real resistance point from the 4H charts is way up at 1.3256 (which was the bottom on October 10).
The other alternative is to sell on the break of the current low of 1.2727 from earlier today.
I have just placed a pending sell on stop order at 1.2725
Edit 10.50 am NY time Market is sitting up at 1.2850....My 1.2725 sell order is still in place, waiting to be triggered
Emails
Email 1
What were you doing in SKorea? Having a quick break visiting some of the tourist sights..... My computer has caught another virus from the wifi free access over there. Luckily I bought a second laptop with a big 14" screen for home use two weeks ago and was copying most of the stuff across so I am using it now and then getting the other one cleaned up (re‐formatted) tomorrow.
Email 2
Hi Wayne,You said "I am keen to get into the action but feel that my emotions are running too high now."
Thanks for these types of comments.I trade very short term ‐ often in and out within 3 to 30 minutes. So my style is very different to yours. However, the trading principles are the same no matter what style, aren't they? After a couple of days of good trading with 9 wins in a row, I felt like I was shooting ducks in a barrel. But I let my emotions run too high. I lost that calm detachment that allows you to see the market action clearly. I was 'too excited' and let my guard down and then made a silly error (missing something that was obvious once I was out of the trade). Me simple error annoyed me and then I wanted to cover the loss, so I was not trading from emotional detachment....I was trading from "give me my money back". This led to another error when I let a decent profit turn into a loss (because I wanted to make up for the previous loss).
In hindsight, I should have done what you have learned to do. ie Walk away, clear my head and let my emotions calm down before I came back to the market.
Anyway ‐ thanks for your pearls of wisdom. I love reading the blog ‐ not because I am wanting to trade Jacko's way ‐ but because I like to read how Jacko the trader, thinks. Thanks for your kind words....the market at the moment is more suitable for your style of trading...but I just couldn't sustain that type of trading style
Email 3
Wayne, I notice that you are trading much less at the moment. Has that effected the results of the Jackson Fortress managed fund? The fund has been traded with enormous caution. We are now coming to the close of our first quarter with an annualised return of in excess of 48% (not bad... but we could do better). The main focus has been to have absolutely minimal drawdown and only very confident trades. In the three month period to date we have made only 9 trades. It is really a sign of just how good this forex trading business is compared to other businesses. We have been trading in a situation that is not optimal for our trading style due to record volatility and very difficult economic circumstances and we can still make those types of returns with minimal risk (as determined by minimal drawdown).
This (Forex trading) is still the best business on the planet
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 224
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday October 22 and the market is at 1.2825
As outlined in yesterdays message, this Euro has the potential to move as far as the 1.2130 mark which is the 50% fib number from 0.8220 (in Oct 2000) to 1.6037 (in July 2008).
As discussed in Messsage 220, It has often been said that the bottom of the market is total capitulation. Capitulation is when investors give up. The problem at the moment is that the media is full of talk of capitulation which in itself indicates that total capitulation hasn't come yet. Extreme levels of volatility are also usually associated with turning points in the market. The Volatility index or VIX index on the
Chicago Board of Options reached an all time high last week indicating extreme volatility. Capitulation usually involves extremely high volume and sharp declines.
In light of the above, I believe that we are getting much closer to a bottom in the stock market. There is still further to go on the downside but the turning point is getting closer.
This also applies to the Eur/USD. I believe that there is still further to go on the downside but the turning point is getting closer.
The next 24 hours may see the continuation of this fast and deep spike in the Euro.
Edit 10.00am NY time Being in Seoul without computer access has left me feeling stranded and annoyed at having missed the drop. I am keen to get into the action but feel that my emotions are running too high now. This is a market for very short term trades at the moment.
Please be cautious in your trading.
Use stop Losses at ALL TIMES.
This volatility is extreme
Emails
Email 1
Jacko, what is your take on what is happening to the Euro this week? There are a number of factors. Firstly, there is increased speculation that other central banks in the world will cut rates faster than the US Fed Reserve. Secondly they think that Europe will have a deeper and longer recesssion than the US. And thirdly, the dumping of shares wordwide boosts the dollar as the funds are repatriated back to the US.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 223
It is 4.00am NY time Tuesday October 21 and the market is at ?????
I have still been unable to get my computer to open properly. I will be back home in HK in about 10 hours. I will post then. I apologise to each of you
Edit 1.00pm NY time. One of the advantages of travel is that you see and experience new things. One of the (minor) disadvantages is that things don't work as smoothly as when you are at home. I have just arrived back home and have just seen that the market is hitting new lows. Market is currently at 1.3102.
As unbelievable as it may seem, this market may be heading towards the 1.2130 mark which is the 50% fib number from 0.8220 (in Oct 2000) to 1.6037 (in July 2008). You actually need to set your charts to Monthly to see the relevant chart.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 222
It is 5.05am NY time Monday October 20 and the market is at ?????
I apologise for the problem I am having today. I am in Seoul in South Korea and I am having trouble with connections from my computer. I am currently in a cafe and the internet cafe terminals don't support java so I can't even see what the prices are. I am trying to fix the problem but no‐one here speaks english fluently enough to help me.
I will be back as soon as I get this sorted.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 221
It is 3.10am NY time Friday October 17 and the market is at 1.3470
The forex market is still consolidating. The stock market showed a temporary rush of blood to the head yesterday...(a 400 point rise in the Dow in the last hour of trading??...)
I won't be taking any positions today... I don't like being pressured by a small time frame...and I certainly do not want to play suicidal
Russian roulette type games by holding a position over the weekend in this current volatile market. Remember that most of Wall St (whats left of them ) will be sighing a great big sigh of relief that they can get away from the carnage for a weekend. They will not be holding any extra positions over the weekend. And they will be very keen to get away early on Friday.
Emails
Email 1
I was just wondering how Geoff's trades were working out during these volatile times. I'd be quite interested to follow what he was doing even if it wasn't going so well. Just to learn from it, and then also being able to compare what it does during trendier times and less trendy times. He is getting back to his usual confident self, but he won't be allowing us to post his trades again in the near future (he feels as though he fell on his ass in a bad way because of his overconfidence). He has learnt from that and has become much less testestrone‐prone in his comments. But it has also made him appreciate some of the things Mark talked to him about as far as longevity as a trader and how it is a personal thing and that he doesn't need to "prove" anything to anyone else. He has just had a lesson in becoming a "quieter" but better trader.
Email 2
I have enjoyed your blog over the past several weeks. I have a quick question about your last entry. You wrote " We are now in very real danger of sliding into the abyss. Up until now, we have been looking over the edge and seeing a yawning black hole. I am very concerned that we are now sliding into that hole." Yes, I think that we will see a big and fast spike very soon (Friday, Monday??) Then later you
wrote "There is still further to go on the downside but the turning point is getting closer" The spike down will be the exhaustion spike where there will be an over‐reaction..that will be the low point I feel these two statements do not go hand in hand. Either we are near the bottom or we are as you say are about to slide into the abyss. Once we start the slide, it will be big and fast And remember....I could be wwwrong !!!
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 220
It is 2.50am NY time Thursday October 16 and the market is at 1.3404
The Dow dropped another 738 points (or 7.9%) yesterday. The Nasdaq dropped another 151 points (or 8.47%). We are now in very real danger of sliding into the abyss. Up until now, we have been looking over the edge and seeing a yawning black hole. I am very concerned that we are now sliding into that hole.
It has often been said that the bottom of the market is total capitulation. Capitulation is when investors give up. The problem at the moment is that the media is full of talk of capitulation which in itself indicates that total capitulation hasn't come yet. Extreme levels of volatility are also usually associated with turning points in the market. The Volatility index or VIX index on the Chicago Board of Options reached an all time high last week indicating extreme volatility. Capitulation usually involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. In light of the above, I believe that we are getting much closer to a bottom in the stock market. There is still further to go on the downside but the turning point is getting closer. This also applies to the Eur/USD. I believe that there is still further to go on the downside but the turning point is getting closer. Huge funds have been moving to the safety of the USD. This will soon start to subside. My trade order (a sell at 1.3850) was not hit. So I am now looking for another entry point.
Edit 10.20am NY time Dow is now down 143 points (‐1.6%). It looks as though we are heading deeper into the abyss.
Emails
Email 1
Wayne, If you had left your 3700 sell order in over the weekend, it would heve been filled at 5.45am NY time 14 Oct. It would have been a good trade. Do you think you should have left it in? LOL...with 20/20 hindsight the answer is yes. But I did what I thought was right at the time....and I did not lose money!! So I live to fight another day...and take another opportunity that will no doubt appear in the next day or two.
Email 2
Why is the Euro continuing to fall? The dollar has strengthened as risk aversion caused massive inflows into U.S. treasuries. Even an awful retail sales report yesterday resulted in the USD strengthening, when normally it would have caused a severe weakening. In light of the above, we may see the strong USD sentiment continue. I am not seeing any signs of investor fear disappearing, despite the global efforts to stem the credit crisis. In fact, I think the panic level is starting to increase as the markets continue to fall.
Email 3
please today you said that you believe that there is still further to go on the downside but the turning point is getting closer. Because the next fall will be big and fast So What point on DOW and ES(S&P 500) you think that it is bottom of this bearish market. Dow 7000 Why do you think that we are close to the turning point? Because the next fall will be big and fast I think that the problems is US are bigger and market need fall much more and much deeper. So do I, but it will be fast
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 219
It is 1.20am NY time Wednesday October 15 and the market is at 1.3580
The reaction of the stockmarket yesterday was interesting. Dow down 77 points ( ‐0.8%) and Nasdaq down 65 points (‐3.54%). So either:
1. the market is heading down...to below its low of 7773...ouch !! or
2. this is just a small downward reaction to the the monsterous 936 point move upwards and it will continue upwards.
It will be interesting to see which of the above scenarios is the one that plays itself out.
My sell order is still in place. I am still a seller at 1.3850
Edit 9.55am NY time The market is now at 1.3583...a whole 3 pips above where it was at my original post earlier today....the market is just consolidating at the moment
Edit 11.00am NY time Dow down 366 points...Looks bad for outlook for US economy.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 218
It is 4.00am NY time Tuesday October 14 and the market is at 1.3663
I am heartened by the news coming out of Europe regarding the recapitalisation of the banks. Three of Britains leading banks (Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) HBOS and Lloyds TSB) have effectively been nationalised. From all reports the discussions with the British banks was "brutal" (and so they should be...they are buying the Banks with taxpayers money). The CEO of RBS was given the Royal Order of the Boot and was forced to rescind his claim to his $2 Mill bonus. (A $2 Mill bonus??!!...for what??...driving a Bank into the ground??!!). The Chairman was also told to clean out his desk
In contrast, the US Treasury Paulson has stated " the equity purchase programme will be voluntary and designed with attractive terms to encourage participation...". Are they kidding me????!!!
What are they doing to my beloved country???? The only thing that they should be offering these bankers is to hand over all their assets or a shared jail cell with big bad Bubba ( the big dumb‐ass bankrobber who never got past elementary school,...and who has never had a girlfriend).
Back to trading.... While the equity markets have soared, the currency markets have been relatively calm. I am tending to favor the downside at the present time. Looking for a suitable position to get in at a favorable price. I am still thinking that the 1.3881 resistance looks as though it might be my best option...If it breaks above that, it would then struggle to get through 1.4000. So I am looking to sell at 1.3850
As stated yesterday, "Looking at the 4H chart there is a vicious spike down to 1.3256 at 2.40pm on Friday last. We may now see a dead cat bounce up to around the resistance level of 1.3881 (the low of Sept 11). Also the 50% Fib of 1.4866 (Sept 22) and 1.3256 (Oct 10) is 1.4061".
I have a pending sell on stop order at 1.3850. I also have a 100 pip TSL.
Edit 12.55pm NY time Market has been very dull so far...And the Dow is up only 0.47% and the Nasdaq is down 1.52%...that is a concern !!
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 217
It is 1.15am NY time Monday October 13 and the market is at 1.3501
Another weekend and another gap... from a close on Friday at 1.3409 to a Sunday evening open of 1.3572....a gap of 163 pips !! ALMOST unbelievable for the Euro.
I have been watching the Dow. As many of you are aware, I have said that the Dow would hit 10,000 for over a year now. The downdraft spike on Friday was a sign that a short term bottom in the Dow may now be in place.
The Dow dropped an eye opening 1875 points last week to 8451. (It may now try to bounce up towards the resistance of 10,000...but I am not hopeful of it hitting that number).
Interestingly, in the Great Depression of 1931 the market fell 40% between September and October.....but by July 1932, it had dropped 90% (That is the equivalent of the Dow heading to 1,461 (from its record high of 14,618)
Also in Oct 19 1987, (Black Monday), the DJIA plunged 22.6% in a day (having actually experiencing that, it is best said that it was an "interesting" day)
And, more recently, the Dot.com crash sent the Nasdaq down 76.4% (from 4698 down to 1108) from Feb 2000 to Oct 2002
So the good news is that we haven't had it too bad....yet!
I am not convinced that the Central Bankers have this under control, though the Europeans seem to be heading in the more correct direction. Even though they are staying away from the words "bank nationalisation" their actions are certainly moving in that direction.
Given that the current managements of the banks around the world have recklessly and fraudulently led us to this situation, serious and urgent steps must be taken. It is obvious that the free market in the financial area has been seriously abused by the current managements.
The damage is so severe that the banking industry cannot repair itself. It is imperative that the Government step in and recapitalise the banks by taking majority ownerships. However, the second step of that process is a total clean out of all the Boards of Directors and the CEOs. (A plea bargain to every CEO...hand over all your assets or we charge you with fraud and negligence with MAXIMUM
penalties...including jail. And if you try to hide anything, you go straight to the slammer). I think that the most appalling thing about this mess is that NO‐ONE has even apologised for the disasters that they brought on their companies and the rest of the economy.
Some form a financial conservatism is absolutely necessary for the stabilisation of the industry and the re‐establishment of trust.
Some form a financial conservatism is absolutely necessary for the stabilisation of the industry and the re‐establishment of trust.
Anyway, back to trading.... Looking at the 4H chart there is a vicious spike down to 1.3256 at 2.40pm on Friday last. We may now see a dead cat bounce up to around the resistance level of 1.3881 (the low of Sept 11).
Also the 50% Fib of 1.4866 (Sept 22) and 1.3256 (Oct 10) is 1.4061.
So the round number of 1.4000 is a good target on the upside...though I would be looking to be very careful around that 1.3881 mark
Edit 4.30am NY time I meant to mention. Have a look at the chart...and you will see that the gap was closed perfectly to the pip at 1.3456.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market is at 1.3522 and looking weak ...again
Emails
Email 1
Jacko, Do you think that the Governments around the world can get this mess under control? I think that they can but they have huge
problems ahead. It has been said that "The Central Banks are nowhere near large enough to handle this problem right now...The US Federal
Reserve balance sheet is around $1.2 Trillion compared with an $11 Trillion mortgage market and a $54 Trillion credit defaults swaps
market" (Washington Post).
Central Banks have the power to print money but in the face of what the current crisis, this could easily result in hyper ‐inflation. I seriously
believe that inflation is going to be sky high within 6 months due to the sheer volume of money being printed around the world.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 216
It is 3.15am NY time Friday October 10 and the market is at 1.3580
I won't be entering any trades today. As stated yesterday, there are meetings of the IMF, World Bank and G7 Finance Ministers this weekend.
Definitely NOT a time to be holding a position over the weekend.
It is good to see the US Govt finally doing what it should have done right from the start...just take over the Banks and screw them right down on the price of the issued preference shares because they are the ONLY buyer. (And they are using taxpayers money!!) Who else is going to buy shares in them AND guarantee their losses!!!
Then they should sack the Boards and CEO of each of the Banks. (The Govt can charge them and their predecessors for fraud and negligence ater)
Edit 9.50am NY time Dow down 700 points...An interesting day ahead...
Emails
Email 1
Jacko, Dont you think you were a too strong in your blog about the guys at the Banks. The Government shouldn't be running the Banks. Why would anyone agree to give monsterous loans (financed by the average taxpayer who had NO say in the matter) to people who have already proven themselves to be reckless gamblers with unbelievably expensive and ludicrous habits?
It is like lending money to a reckless and unsuccessful gambler....except they are lending your money and my money.
The Govt is throwing money around like a drunken sailor in a Las Vegas whorehouse. Except that it is hundreds of Billions of dollars of your money and my money
The "credit freeze" has been brought about because Banks won't lend to each other!!!! Because they don't trust each other!!!!! Even for overnight funding!!!!!
The answer is NOT to lend the current idiots any more money
The answer is to take over the Banks and recapitalise them/ guarantee all the current debts. The average Joes in the bank can still do their jobs but the senior management get booted out the door. The whole mistrust issue disappears and the "credit freeze" gets thawed.
Email 2
On the blog, you posted, "Mark is more concerned about reward to risk ratio...it is a legacy of his days as a trader for the big brokerages."
Are you implying that you don't concern yourself with risk/reward ratios? I am from a different background. I am from a business background where you cannot run a business as tightly as Mark would think......If you did the local coffee shop would close down the day after it had a bad day ...or if it wasn't profitable by 11.00am each day ....Mark likes to have NO losses, but it often means he misses out on some great trades Do you track expectancy? NO. But I do expect a trend to continue
Also, I've never seen you address position sizing. Was your approach to position sizing addressed in the earlier blog posts? Yes, I pyramided on my profits and grew in size quite quickly...see http://www.waynejacksonfx.blogspot.com/
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 215
It is 2.20am NY time Thursday October 9 and the market is at 1.3682
As outlined in yesterdays Message I finally sold at 1.3750 when the market spiked up to 1.3754. with a 100 pip TSL. I left the 100 pips TSL in to try to get the longer run trade (Wrong decision ... but still racked up another 71 pips profit). Market bottomed at 1.3579. TSL was adjusted to 1.3679 which is where I was taken out. Those of you who tightened up your SL to 50 pips did better than me...but I was after a potentially longer term trade.
Edit 10.15am NY time I was tempted to go short again at 1.3750 earlier today but was too distracted by other business matters. The market rose as high as 1.3784 which is sufficient to finally close the gap that occured over the weekend. However, I think that I may just get another opportunity for a quick smash and grab at 1.3700.
I think that the market will continue to fall in the short term. (However, there are meetings of the IMF, World Bank and G7 Finance Ministers this weekend. Definitely NOT a time to be holding a position over the weekend).
I am a seller at 1.3700.
Edit 10.30am NYtime. Market has dropped quickly to 1.3631....I think I have missed the opportunity...The order is still in place
Edit 9.00pm NY time The market finally rose back up but only as far as 1.3693. Missed my target sell orders at 1.3700 by just 7 pips (plus spread). Grrr.... Market has now fallen to 1.3555. Order cancelled.
Emails
Email 1
1.Are you taking more funds into the Fund from investors or is it currently frozen? I know that you have Mark's large investors and then the smaller investors...... but I am not sure how the smaller investors were invited to subscribe? If a member of the group is interested they just ask me for more details. However the Fund was set up more as a way of giving selected traders experience and getting traders from the group into the more formal trading career as prop traders for institutions (that career path has basically cratered since this meltdown started). It was also Marks little project as far as setting up my own Fund for his investor friends that know both Mark and I. It was my insistence that the smaller funds from the group members be given a benefit from the larger investors deposits/profits that made me
decide to proceed with it
2. I read on your Blog that Mark does'nt like to see losses etc. I tend to agree with you in terms of treating this as a business that loss making trades = overheads which sometimes need to be incurred. Just need to manage those DD's. Mark is more concerned about reward to risk ratio...it is a legacy of his days as a trader for the big brokerages
3. When are you going to provide further info. with regard the Aussies approach to trading? Geoff is having a major issue with not wanting to post his trades anymore. His confidence was very bruised from his losses in front of the 40+ traders in the group and he is not sure that it is good for his own trading (from the psychological perspective). We are trying to calm him down and tell him that no one thinks he is an idiot....LOL
4. You mentioned that Mark provided some big clients etc. I thought that Mark worked alone with you or does he still work in cohoots with market makers? No, he just has remained friends with some large investors. I could have a fund of between $5‐10M if I let Mark have his
way.
Email 2
This link was sent to me as a part of an email. It is an interesting read:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/28/usforeignpolicy.useconomicgrowth
Email 3
The nat. debt over $10 trilllion, M3 not published... I'm surprised why food is not tripled in the supermarkets..
Inflation is going to kick in real strong real soon....with a big increase in unemployment and interest rates.
It is called stagflation and we had a dose of it in the 1970s...it was awful.
The central banks have lost control of this current situation...this willl get a lot worse
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 214
It is 2.20am NY time Wednesday October 8 and the market is at 1.3577
I missed my order by 8 pips yesterday... so close and yet so far.
I am getting concerned that a larger relief rally may be on its way but am still prepared to leave my sell order at 1.3750.
I will be back for US opening
Edit 9.30am NY time The market has spiked up again, but only to 1.3741 this time (at 8.15am NY time)...Maybe the next time...
Edit 9.00pm NY time We finally caught the fish. I sold at 1.3750 when the market spiked up to 1.3754. I am now in with a 100 pip TSL. I will probably reduce this to a 50 pip stop later. (Market is now at 1.3595 so we are 155 pips in profit).
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 213
It is 3.50am NY time Tuesday October 7 and the market is at 1.3589
The market has moved up to the descending 4H falling trend line (1.4572 on Sept 29 at 13.30pm, and 1.3907 on Oct 3 at 14.00pm) at 1.3623. It has now fallen back. It will be a brave trader that would be going long in this environment, so I would recommend keeping a watch on that descending trend line and the more aggressive traders sell at the upper areas (around 1.3640) but with very hard 50 pip
stops. The concern have is that the decline has been so strong and so fast that there may be a relief rally which could see a quick break above the 1.3650 mark. However, I would think that the closure of the weekend gap at 1.3791 would be sufficient to sap the strength of the bull.
The strength and speed of this fall from 1.6000 in only eight short weeks suggests that this may be more than a very quick and deep correction. I am not going to fight the fall but I am going to be very selective on my sell targets. I am a seller at 1.3750 with a 100 pip
TSL
Edit at 10.25am NY time Market has moved as high as 1.3742. So not set yet. Order still in place. Will be moving SL to break even at 40 pips profit (to close off some of the danger from volatility)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 212
It is 3.08am NY time Monday October 6 and the market is at 1.3578
Updates below
This market is getting more exciting by the day. The Euro gapped down 112 pips at today open, opening at 1.3690 against Friday's closing price at 1.3802. Not only was that an extraordinary gap down, but a gap down is now almost becoming a regular event. This market used to have minimal (max 5 pips) movement between the closing on Fridays and openings on Sunday evenings.
The reasons being bandied around (see DailyFX) are:
"First, Non Farm Payrolls disappointed expectations, showing the US economy lost ‐159k jobs in September versus the ‐105k forecast, the worst reading in 5 years.
Second, the market seems convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at their next meeting on October 29th.
Finally, the dollar's rise is unlikely to be related to cheering confidence in the final approval of the $850 billion rescue plan to shore up the financial markets by US lawmakers
Conventional wisdom would suggest the US Dollar should be losing value on such news, so where is this strength coming from? The answer, it seems, lies in broad‐based global demand for long‐term US government debt."
However, the over‐riding factor is that the various Central Banks are desperately trying to support the USD. The benefit to them is that it lowers the value of their own currencies thereby increasing their exports and reducing demand for imports.
While this process continues we will continue to see a stronger USD and a falling Euro.
Edit 8.00am NY time. The Euro is trying to make a very feeble attempt at rising, currently 80 pips off its 1.3540 low. It may be trying to close its gap from yesterday evening. If so, its heading to 1.3790
Edit 10.00am NY time Doesn't look like the gap will be closed. Dow has finally cracked 10,000....Dow down over 3% in first 30 minutes ...$700 Billion of taxpayers money and not even a positive effect on Wall St....Look out !!
Edit 10.15am NY time Market is going down! (see Email 4 below)
Edit 10.55am NY time This is going to be a big day for fast traders.
Edit 4.00pm NY time Market has hit a low of 1.3442. I think that is all the excitement we are going to see for today
Edit 7.15pm NY time It may be going down again.Market has moved up to only 1.3532 (which is lower than 1.3538 from 4.20pm) and is now falling. Asia may now take it down a bit more.
Emails
Email 1
Just wondering what your thoughts our on the overall trend. US economy, horrible! European economy, horrible! We reached the Monthly 50% Fib mark, at 1.38. Oil down. World economies seem to looking for a strong dollar. I honestly think that we are on the brink of something very very dangerous (a Black Monday again today??.... Asia down 5%... a precursor of a bad day for Wall St??) ....
The speed with which the $700 Billion rescue package was shrugged off by the markets is breathtaking.... breathtakingly scary that is...
P.S. 6.7% return on my account, in the last week, following the 4 hr trend down. I've finally learned to stop fighting what I see on the charts. Top right to bottom left on the chart tells it all.:0) Excellent work
Email 2
Jacko, In Message 210 you said that "I am quite happy for traders who are on their trading terminals and can be more nimble than I am to trade on my "opinion"...which many of the group are..(and doing very, very well) but I am happy to sit out this volatility until it becomes
less "whippy". I am also not comfortable recommending relatively new traders to trade this market while it is so volatile. Having said that, I also believe that the more experienced traders can understand my price targets" What did you mean by that? Some of the traders (especially from the first group) have seen that I am reasonably good at seeing where the market may be heading, even though I am not
prepared to trade that opinion with big volume. (It may be opposite to the prevailing trend or I might simply be not sufficiently convinced to recommend that others follow me into the trade). However, some of the traders in the group are prepared to be more adventurous and take the risk (mainly because they are either full time traders now or are becoming fulltime traders and are giving trading a high priority and attention ...read more screen time....). They are reading my general comments and using that as a basis for shorter term trading...which I think is necessary in these very volatile times
Email 3
I do differently now is that I trade on smaller time frames (4h for finding S&R lines, 1h for trading and 30/15 min for fine tuning the exits) and I place the biggest significance on S&R lines. Given the current volatility we have two choices..either increase the size of the stops to almost unreal numbers OR trade in shorter time frames. I think that the latter is the better option.
Email 4
In you blog you say, "While this process continues we will continue to see a stronger USD and a falling Euro."Are you therefore looking to go short in the very near term? Yes, just some very quick short term trades at the moment...just keeping my hand in at trading. Not big positions, just keeping the trading juices going Or do you think that there is still too much volatility for now? There is definitely too much volatility at the moment. Given the current volatility we have two choices..either increase the size of the stops to almost unreal numbers OR trade in shorter time frames. I think that the latter is the better option.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 211
It is 2.15am NY time Friday October 3 and the market is at 1.3883
The market is getting ready for a tumultuous day today. Not only is the US House of Representatives set to vote on the Treasury's financial market rescue plan but also the Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures are out at 8.30am NY time.
Definitely a day for the wildest of traders with lightning reflexes, many years trading experience, a solid trading plan and a cast iron constitution for wild swings (if the does not sound like you...then stay on the sidelines today).
Edit 10.00am NY time The NFP figures show a much weaker than expected employment report ( ‐159K versus expected ‐100K) and the dollar strengthens!!!??? The Central Banks are really bolstering the USD...but the impact of the vote tonight may cause a reaction
Emails
Email 1
G'day Jacko. You have gone quiet on the Managed Fund. What is the progress on it. The Managed Fund is progressing very well. After a few concerns as to whether I wanted to take on the extra responsibilities of it all, we had a very lowkey launch.
The account as currently stands has eight private investors (private clients of Mark) who have each contributed the maximum ($100,000) that we allowed each of them. However, these eight investors do NOT have the profit guarantee. The members of the Jackson private group have contributed a smaller amount of just over $100,000 which has a guarantee of a minimum 7.5% per quarter ( 30%pa) for the first year.
The Fund is performing better than the above target and so we are quite happy with it. (No one has ask for any redemptions...so they must be happy also)
I have been trading it very cautiously but have been lucky with one or two trades and so we have good results to date.
From the traders aspect, we have Geoff and two other traders that we talk to each day. We have copies of their trading results to date and we are analysing their trading patterns to see if we wish to go further. (We also are looking casually at one or two other traders in the group). If we decide to get bigger and treat it as a fulltime , staffed business, we will probably allow more of Marks private investors in and also increase their investment limits.
Email 2
Where are the details of the Managed Fund? The details were outlined in the blog in August (I think August 9).
Please see here:http://www.jacksonfortress.blogspot.com/
Because of "intruders" we have locked the above website against non‐members. The access codes for the above website are:
User name: jacksonfortressaccess
Password: jacksonfortress
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 210
It is 1.30am NY time Thursday October 2 and the market is at 1.3952
As stated in previous Messages, this market is being firmly pushed towards the 1.3850 mark.
I would expect that it will go through the 1.3881 low reasonably easily until it hits the 1.385o mark. A strong break of 1.3850 that will mean that it is in a solid down trend. It may bounce off the 1.3850 mark but I think that the 1.3850 looks vulnerable to being broken. Given the speed and power of the fall of the Euro, I see very little reason for it turning dramatically at this point. I believe that the Central Banks are deeply involved in driving the Euro down and that they are determined to support the USD in the short term.
Edit 10.00am NY time As projected in my earlier Message, the market bounced off the 1.3850 mark at 3.30am and again at 7.25am before it was finally broken at 1.3850 and went quickly down to 1.3746. A good number of you positioned for "shorts" at 1.3840 and have done very well.
Emails
Email 1
since you beleive the euro is so falling and you even see it breaking the 1.385 why dont you trade it ?? I am not trading it because the volatility is taking everyone out...longs...shorts...straddles...Breakouts... They are all getting whipsawed by the volatility. Any market (where the usual daily volatility is 50‐100pips) has one day where it shoots up 200 pips then back down 200 pips within an hour, and then the next day drops 300 pips is not the type of market I want to rush into. Because it could very easily rebound straght through all your stops I am quite happy for traders who are on their trading terminals and can be more nimble than I am to trade on my "opinion"...which many of the group are..(and doing very, very well) but I am happy to sit out this volatility until it becomes less "whippy". I am also not comfortable recommending relatively new traders to trade this market while it is so volatile.
Having said that, I also believe that the more experienced traders can understand my price targets.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 209
It is 2.30am NY time Wednesday October 1 and the market is at 1.4136
When I stated yesterday, "the market looks as though it is going to have another run at the 1.3850 support level." I didn't expect the largest ever one day drop in the Euro. We certainly are living in volatile times.
The market has bottomed at 1.4008, but I expect another run at 1.3850 very soon.
Those of you you who are shorting the market are doing very well.
Edit 3.25am NY time Geoff returned home to Australia yesterday. (He stayed an extra week with us). I have been codifying his method and will place it here in the next day or two.
He has just fired in a buy order at 1.4151 (on the break of 1.4149). He is looking for a short term trade and will be using 50 pip TSL .
(Note:He may not get hit as the market is dropping marginally...currently 1.4119)
Edit 7.40am NY time In the cruellest of trades the market rose to 1.4164 then dropped 52 pips to 1.4112 to knock Geoff out at 1.4114 (1.4164‐50=1.4114) with a 37 pip loss....then the market has risen back up again.....
I think that he may be correct that the breakout on the upside was a viable trade because the market will retrace some of the fall from yesterday's session, but the current volatility just pipped him out. Having said that...a loss is a loss.
Emails
Email 1
You used an indicator with a specific setting to measure volaitity in the market in pips ...... could you please let me know which and what settings I need to use ......... the pip swings for the Eur are huge. The Average True Range is the indicator. Set your chart to Daily, then set the ATR to one and you will see the huge increase in Daily volatility
Also the Wizard Of Oz ... where is he ...... have you locked him up in a cupboard! No he went out sightseeing while he was here...he stayed longer because he went to Macau and China for trips. He left yesterday
Email 2 (re the 200 pip up and 200 pip down movement within 30 minutes)
WOW man, today was just an amazing and historical day, at least for me, I have never seen a market moving that fast and that much both ways, I just took 24 and 30 pips, but that is not the important thing but the reaction of the markets to a such big deal like the bail out of the financial/credit markets. This will be great for you as a trader...you have now "experienced" a wild trading session...keep it in your
memory banks and it will add to your "experience"
Email 3
I have been following the markets with great interest. These are real challenging times. I joined you in late april, just when all this mess started to take big proportions, I think I will remind this time in some years as a big big lesson. LOL.....Put it down as a great learning "experience". These types of experiences are invaluable for later trading I guess you miss those quiet and trendy times of the eur/usd!!!! Yes
This volatility is quite amazing and deadly!!! I mean there aren't much trading systems or strategies that can deal with it. Even if you by any means know the direction, you can get whipsawed easily. Yes
On my platform I have an almost 200 pip tail in a 30 min bar !!!! Yes !!! Powerful stuff. You have now been IN a trading experience
Email 4
With the big Investment‐banks crapping themselves, does this take their collective eye off the ball on the currency markets? Would that contribute to the exceptional volatility? Yes, but the main factor in the big drive down is the Central Banks are pushing the USD up Or is the volatility really just a function of the complete uncertainty in the markets? Uncertainty and thinness in the market Economists are taking sides for or against the bailout, but neither is willing to venture a guess on the potential impact of either option.
They don't know...we are in uncharted waters...but I do know that inflation is going to increase significantly due to all the money being printed and injected into the system
What do you see happening in a broad sense over the next few years? Big increase in inflation so that all the debts will be paid with debased dollars that cost the govts nothing to create (Just the printing costs)
Email 5
at times like these, does "fortune favour the brave"? Or, do "Fools rush in where angels fear to tread"!!!!!!!!!! ? Careful people make good money
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