It is 1.30am NY time Friday May 29 and the market is at 1.3984
The market has bounced up off the 1.3800 mark and has been more bullish than expected. (I expected it to hit 1.3900 ....which it did...but the extra bullishness to send it up to just under 1.4000 seems to indicate that it has more strength than I expected)
It is now sitting just under the 1.4000 mark and is now looking better than 50% to break it later today. The main resistance above that level is 1.4050 (from May 22) and then it is clear air through to 1.4362 (on Dec 28, 2008) then 1.4718 (on Dec 17, 2008). Although it is a Friday, I am taking a long position.
I am a BUYER at 1.4000 or less
Edit 1.35am NY time I have just BOUGHT at 1.3987...It has a 100 pip TSL
Edit 3.15am NY time The market has been up and down between 1.3980 and 1.4000 a number of times in the last 90 minutes allowing everyone who wanted to buy to get set. I will be looking to close this trade before the end of trade today as I don't want to be exposed over the weekend (There is trouble brewing in US - North Korea relations and I don't want to be surprised by anything they may say or do over the weekend)
Edit 6.45am NY time The market is at 1.4110. The market has moved up to a high of 1.4113 so I have moved the TSL to to 1.4013. This locks in a guaranteed 26 pips. However, as stated earlier, I will be closing this trade before the end of day so I expect to make considerably more than 26 pips
Edit 7.45am NY time I am locking in profits by reducing my TSL to only 50 pips. The market has been as high as 1.4134. My TSL has been adjusted to 1.4084.
Edit 8.15am NY time The market had dropped to as low as 1.4087 then moved up. I took the opportunity to close out all trades at 1.4100. (The US Prelim GDP figures were coming out at 8.30am and I wanted all my profits locked) A total profit of 113 pips
Emails
I am a little behind in answering emails from yesterday and today so please be patient.
I am really busy at the moment but I will answer all emails over the weekend.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 370
It is 1.45am NY time Thursday May 28 and the market is at 1.3835
As stated yesterday, I experienced the "pain" of being taken out of the trade by a "last gasp" spike up to a mere 5 pips above my TSL, then the dubious "pleasure" of watching it fall to my target of the 1.3816. This is the true "pleasure and pain" of being a forex trader.
This is the second time in the last few trades where the market has made one last move that just took out my TSL before going on to hit my target. (Maybe need to look at the parameters of the TSL ??)
The market has now hit the first 50% fib is from 1.3727 (May 21...9.00am) to 1.4050 (May 22...1.00pm) which was at 1.3888...bounced up...and then fell back through it
The market then hit the second 50% fib from 1.3582 (May 20...2.ooam) to 1.4050 (May 23...1.00pm) which is at 1.3816 and bounced up
The last 50% fib to consider is from 1.3422 (May 17...9.oopm) to 1.4050 (May 22...1.00pm) which is at 1.3736.
I would not be surprised to see a move back up to around the 1.3900 level but I am waiting to see how London starts the day.
Edit 4.15am NY time London has taken the market up to 1.3882 but it is looking weak.
Edit 6.30am NY time Market is still heading to 1.3900
Edit 8.10am NY time The market hit 1.3899 (I missed by 1 pip) and has started to reverse back down again. There is a number of News items coming out today.... The Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims at 8.30am and New Home Sales at 10am...that will cause some volatliity but will give us a direction of the US economy.
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.3950 The market has again bullied itself up towards 1.4000 but has again failed to get there, stopping at a peak of only 1.3983. Although the trend is bullish, the cracks are starting to show a possible reversal back to the third and final 50% Fib line at 1.3736
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 369
It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday May 27 and the market is at 1.3967
I have said all week that, although I am bullish, to me the continued upside is too risky at these levels to be a buyer, because there is always... inevitably... a retrace.
Yesterday, I watched our more adventurous traders trade the downside to the first 50% Fib mark (see Message 367 below) at 1.3888 for good pips.
Then, as projected the market moved back up to 1.3950 (on its way to the high of 1.4004). And has been moving lower since hitting that 1.4000 area of resistance at 2pm NY time yesterday
I am starting to get "itchy" to trade. It may be some time before it gets down to a good buying level and I want to get some pips. (Mrs Jacko wants to go shopping tomorrow...LOL)
The upside is limited....so we are looking at a very "opportunistic" but risky trade to trade the retracements.
The first Fib mark of 1.3888 has been hit (yesterday).
The next decline should take us down to the second Fib mark of 1.3816 (or 1.3800 rounded).
I have decided to join our adventurous traders in the next trade down.
NOTE: It is a countertrend trade but I consider that the market is showing sufficient signs of a retracement (Upward exhaustion, lower highs and lower lows) to justify the risk.
I am a SELLER at 1.3950 or higher
Edit 1.25am NY time I have just SOLD at 1.3960
Edit 1.30 am NY time The market has dropped below 1.3950...DO NOT PANIC ...It will come back .above 1.3950 for you to get into the trade
Edit 2.30 am NY time The market bounced up again to as high as 1.3964 at 1.45am NY time allowing anyone who wanted to be in to get in. The market has since dropped as low as 1.3925 so I have just moved my TSL to 1.4025
Edit 6.10am NY time I am now letting the trade play itself out....If I am not closed out by the 100 pip TSL, I have an initial target of the 1.3816 fib mark (see Message 367 below)
Edit 8.10am NY time The market has now been as low as 1.3890 so I am now adjusting the TSL to 1.3990...
Edit 9.10am NY time Mr Geithner is speaking later today, so I have placed my orders to close my trades if it hits the 50% Fib target of 1.3816 (or if the TSL is hit)
Edit 10.45am NY time The market spiked up to 1.3995 and then immmediately collapsed to 1.3888. However the spike to 1.3995 was sufficient to hit my TSL and close out my position at 1.3990
Edit 7.00pm NY time After experiencing the "pain" of being taken out of the trade by a last gasp spike up to a mere 5 pips above my TSL, I have now had the "pleasure" of watching it fall to as low as 1.3822 which is very close to my target of the 1.3816. This is the true "pleasure and pain" of being a forex trader
Emails
Email 1
Why did you take the countertrend trade instead of waiting for the next buy trade? I missed the opportunity all last week for the "long" trade which was initially driven by the statements of Mr Geithner. (As you will recall the market shot up 100+ pips in less than 10 minutes). And last week was an over-extended bull move.
This week there appears to be a weakness as shown by the difficulty the market has had in extending any rises past the 1.4050 mark, the lower highs and lower lows, and the quick drops followed by rises back up but then slow drops again.
Was it based on Fundamental reasons? From the fundamental side, the big improvement in the Consumer Confidence numbers yesterday had a perverse effect (The news was good for the USD, yet it fell...???)and I was guessing that it might take some time for the market to digest the real effect of those numbers.
Finally, I took the trade in the knowledge that it was a riskier trade.....but I am a trader. I take risks on what I considered to be a higher than 50% probability of a profit. To me, the "long" trade was more risky from a downward retracement move than to take the trade of the downward retracement move. (I possibly should have waited for a true trend trade in the upward direction....but I felt that the potential profit justified the risk in this trade....I will only know if I am right or wrong at the end of the trade)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 368
It is 1.15am NY time Tuesday May 26 and the market is at 1.3978
The market dropped at the open of Asian trading to as low as 1.3943 but has bullied itself back up to the current price. However, I think that we are starting to see some cracks in the strength of the bull. As stated yesterday, although I am bullish, to me the continued upside is too risky at these levels. There is inevitably a retrace.
Edit 3.03am NY time The market has fallen again to another low of 1.3932. The cracks are getting bigger. Some of the more adventurous traders are shorting this from 1.3950 - 1.4000 levels.
Edit 4.05am NY time Market is at 1.3935 I am watching the strength of this decline to see if I want to place my buy order 1.3900 (see yesterday re first Fib level). At the present time, it looks as though this retracement will be quite strong and may carry through until Thursday or Friday. I think the first Fib level at 1.3900 is too high a level too buy in. As stated above, the more adventurous traders are shorting this market for good pips.
Edit 7.35am NY time Market has stalled at the 1.3880 area (the 50% Fib is 1.3888) for the previous 3 hours. We may see it go back up in early NY trade (to the 1.3950 area).... but I would not be surprised to see it end on its lows today
Edit 9.55am NY time Market has been as high as 1.3930... Just waiting to see the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence numbers out in 5 minutes
Edit 1.30pm NY time Market at 1.3965 After better than expected Consumer Confidence numbers, the Euro rose (USD fell) on the back of increased demand for market risk. Market has moved to as high as 1.4002.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 367
It is 1.05am NY time Monday May 25 and the market is at 1.3998
Today is the start of a new week. We should all be refreshed and ready to go again.
NOTE UK and US markets closed today for Bank Holidays. Markets will be thin.
The market is sitting 50 pips below its high of 1.4050. Although I am bullish, to me the continued upside is too risky at these levels. There is inevitably a retrace.
Now looking at the Daily charts we see any Support lines as being waaay too low to be of any assistance. So lets move back into the 4H charts.
Again, the Support line from the low of 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3422 (May 17) is currently at 1.3600 which is waaaay to low to be of assistance.
So lets move the the 50% Fibs:
The first 50% fib is from 1.3727 (May 21...9.00am) to 1.4050 (May 23...1.00pm) which is at 1.3888 ....rounded to 1.3900
IF that Fib is broken, then future 50% fibs to consider are from 1.3582 (May 20...2.ooam) to 1.4050 (May 23...1.00pm) which is at 1.3816 ....rounded to 1.3800
Finally, IF that Fib is broken, then the last 50% fibs to consider are from 1.3422 (May 17...9.oopm) to 1.4050 (May 23...1.00pm) which is at 1.3736 ....rounded to 1.3750
I will be watching today to see if it falls to the first 50% fib line at 1.3900 and then making a decision as to whether any retracement is looking like it might be slowing and getting ready to resume the bull move.
Edit 9.00am NY time NOTE Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year's Day. However, Banks facilitate the majority of foreign exchange volume. When they are closed the market is less liquid and speculators become a more dominant market influence. This can lead to both abnormally low and abnormally high volatility
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 366
It is 1.10am NY time Friday May 22 and the market is at 1.3909
I have spent most of today chastising myself for missing the bull run over the last two days. I seriously under-estimated the strength of the bull. I should have known that the break of the Daily was a significant enough factor to cause a run up. And the fact that Geithner was making a speech at such a crucial point on the charts should have warned me of another impending trashing of the USD.
A missed opportunity to grab another 300+ pips in rapid time.
I now have to wait for a sizable retracement (minimum 100-150 pips) so as to get in at a level that is not too risky on the downside.
Edit 3.25am NY time The market is at 1.3966. Mrs Jacko is taking me to the movies to get my mind off this damn bull in the Euro....
Edit 7.45am NY time The market is at 1.3953 Damn bull run in the Euro... it completely ruined the movie (Angels and Demons with Tom Hanks).....It was not a very good movie so I was thinking about that damn Euro all through the movie....LOL....I was trying to think of reasons as to whether or not it will break 1.4000 today. (I think it might!!)
Edit 9.30am NY time Market has spiked as high as 1.4029. I am letting this market settle back down and have a sizable retrace before I get interested in a trade. This market is becoming very over-extended
Edit 5.00pm NY time The week was disappointing in that I missed an opportunity to make some good pips. However, on the bright side, the market has no memory and so I will be back to start all fresh again on Monday
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 365
It is 1.10am NY time Thursday May 21 and the market is at 1.3770
Yesterday's trading was highlighted by yet another masterful example of "foot in mouth" disease by Mr Geithner. No sooner had he opened his mouth at 9.30am that the market took off and rose 100 pips in the space of the first 10 minutes of his speech.
I am kicking myself because it has now become an established pattern: Mr Geithner speaks... and the USD is trashed 100 pips.
(The Govt has to do something about his speeches !!)
This was then followed by the very dismal report from the FOMC at 2.00pm which took the USD down a little bit more/ the Euro up a little bit more.
Having said that, I missed the opportunity to capitalise on the "Geithner effect" on the USD to grab some pips....
Not good enough Jacko!
The previous experience of the Geithner effect has been a retracement back to the original point (that is, 1.3690) within 24 hours, but this may be tempered by the FOMC statements.
I am waiting for the dust to settle on yesterdays price action before I take the next trade.
Edit 3.40am NY time Nothing exciting in London session so far (Note Germany France and Switzerland are closed for Bank Holidays )
Edit 8.00am NY time The early NY trades are showing a small weakness. I would not be surprised to see the total retracement of the "Geithner effect" today back to at least 1.3690.
Edit 9.45am NY time Market is at 1.3760 It has been as low as 1.3727. I STILL would not be surprised to see the total retracement of the "Geithner effect" today back to at least 1.3690.
Edit 11.50am NY time The market is at 1.3790 The bull is fighting to break loose but is struggling with that overhead Resistance at 1.3830.
Edit 2.30pm NY time This market has more strength than I gave it credit for. I will be looking for a pullback to get in as soon as possible
Emails
Email 1
In your pending A-H trade short at 1.3657, under what conditions would you cancel it. I am asking because this rise to the EU seems unabated - thanks to Geithner. I try to always remember that anything is possible in Forex trading.....another fall back to the old Resistance line area is still a possibility.... ..small probability but still possible......and that line is (currently) at 1.3450 (If you strip out the 100 pips from the "Geithner effect", this is still not showing a strong bullish move on the daily...I am not saying that the market isn't bullish....but don't lose sight of how strong ...or weak...it is)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 364
It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday May 20 and the market is at 1.3610
Yesterdays trade is an example of a good trade gone bad. However, the TSL did its job and minimized our loss to only 37 pips. As stated in yesterdays 8.10am Edit, I possibly entered the short side trade a little early. Today will tell.
Edit 3.25am NY time The early London trade looks to be taking the Euro up. Sometimes, the London traders have a tendency of taking it in one direction for the first hour and then it starts to reverse. (Almost as if the initial "excitement" of the London trading day, loses its impetus after an hour or 90 minutes)
Edit 8.15am NY time Beware of Mr Geithner speaking at 9.30am NY time. He has a bad case of "Foot and Mouth" disease. Every time he opens his mouth he puts his foot in it. He almost guarantees a spike in the market one way or the other
Edit 8.35am NY time The market has just hit 1.3707 which is 50 pips past where my last trade was stopped out (which was 1.3657) .
I have just placed an A-H trade which is a limit order to SELL at 1.3657. It will have a 100 pip TSL
Edit 10.00am NY time My A-H trade has not been triggered (thankfully)... and the bull has now been let out of the corrall by Mr Geithner and is running over the hill. The Govt really needs to script Mr Geithners speeches. He speaks and the USD is trashed
Edit 1.20pm NY time The market has stayed at post-Geithner gaffe levels. After the last move like this one, the market retraced all of its move within24 hours.
Emails
Email 1
I am curious why do trendlines work. For example, current EURUSD price clearly is "respecting" the resistance turned support line. Also, why is there always a retest of the broken (resistance or support) line? What actions of the players that truly matter (banks, hedge funds, etc.) result in (i) "Respect" of trendlines, and (ii) Retest for confirmation? They are considered "the rules of the game". As such they have become such strong "axioms" or "trading truths" that they become self perpetuating.
Since they are the strongest "rules of the game" they have much more likelihood to happen than say the much, much, much weaker 62% fib "rule of the game". I believe that the three strongest "rules of the game" are......(you guessed it!!) ...S&R trend lines, round numbers and 50% fib lines....ANYTHING ELSE is too weak a "rule of the game" to be of statistically robust significance (that is, you can't successfully trade off them)
Email 2
(a) At the moment, you use Daily trendline as the most important factor in your analysis to determine the trend. Yes the Daily has over-ridden the 4H...."The longer the time, the stronger the line" The second most important factor is 4H trendline. So is proper and correct trendline analysis is now central and critical to our method of trading? Most of the time when you are trading the 4H, the Daily S&R lines are too far away...in this case, the Daily managed to "catch up" to the 4H so it over-rides the 4H[By the way, how different (if any) is your current method of analysis different from the situation prior to July/August 08 - the period when EURUSD price ended its long term uptrend and started to drop significantly.] I was more focused on the Daily, but the huge increase in volatility forced me to move to the shorter time frame to lock in profits before the volatility took it all back
(b) When price breaks a resistance line, it will always retrace to retest the resistance line for confirmation. And if on the retest for confirmation the price does not go below the resistance line, and starts to head north instead, then we can be more confident that a breakout has really occurred. [We can apply the same reasoning for break of support line, of course.] Yes...It is not perfect...but it happens more than 50% of the time
(c) The current challenge we face is that although EURUSD price has clearly broken through the resistance line, and has (successfully, it seems) retested for confirmation by staying above that resistance (turned support) line, the price has been too little upwards movement for us to convincingly conclude that now is really the start of a EURUSD long trend. Yes, I think the market may be trying to "bluff" us on the Daily chart with a small fake move above. MAYBE the major downtrend from August 2008 is STILL in play
Email 3
Today you referred to the market as showing weakness even though the Euro was rising against the Dollar. Can you explain how you came to that conclusion . The market is sitting on a strong Daily resistance (turned Support) line. It is strong because it dates all the way back to July 2008. Therefore if it was going to bounce, it should be a strong bounce (The market does not like being near trend lines...it either bounces hard or if it hangs around a S&R line it usually means it will break it). Now the bounce has been very subdued, so I am still thinking that Miss Market is trying to mislead and confuse us. She took the price above the Daily resistance line but then it has stayed there Even though we are sitting ABOVE the support line, it is not bouncing up quickly You were certainly correct because when the correction came it was fast and furious. I think there is much more downside than upside in the short to medium term
Email 4
Where are your Fibs drawn at the moment? I am weak in this area. Fibs are best considered as sets of targets.
The first target was the 50% fib from 1.3250 (May 7) to 1.3721 (May 13)....which was hit by the fall to 1.3422 (May 18)
The next Fib therefore takes in the longer time frame (because we are assuming that the market is falling).Therefore the second target is the 50% fib from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.3721 (May 13) at 1.3346
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 363
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday May 19 and the market is at 1.3560
As expected, the market remained in the 1.3450 to 1.3550 range in the US session yesterday.
The Asian session has taken it slightly higher to 1.3578. The Daily chart has the current price just above the Daily resistance line (currently at 1.3500) but this is NOT a very convincing UP move.
This is still a 50/50 bet as to which way the market will jump. I want to see more positive direction before I hit this market with money.
Edit 4.00am NY time London has taken the market up to 1.3610 in the last hour. This is not a strong bull. All eyes will be on the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 5.00am NY time and the US Building Permits numbers at 8.30am NY time.
Edit 8.15 am NY time The market is at 1.3625 The market has NOT risen strongly enough from the Daily trend line in the last 36 hours to give me enough confidence to go long. I am possibly entering the short side a little early but I don't think the bull has enough strength to get above my 100 pip TSL. I am a seller at 1.3600 or above
I will SmS when I have placed my order
Edit 8.20am NY time I have just sold at 1.3620. I have a 100 pip Trailing stop Loss in place.
Edit 8.40am NY time Market at 1.3590 PLEASE NOTE I am NOT "trading the news"
The market was ALREADY showing weakness earlier and the news was simply going to accelerate the move (That is different to having a guess on the outcome of the news and "trading the news"...)
Edit 9.40am NY time The market has been as low as 1.3568 so my TSL has been adjusted to 1.3668 (which means my maximum potential loss is now only 48 pips). I am letting the trade play itself out.
If the market gets down to the Daily resistance/support line at 1.3500 I have placed an order to close the trade at 1.3500 and cancel the TSL.
Edit 10.15am NY time The market has been as low as 1.3557 so my TSL has been adjusted to 1.3657 (which means my maximum potential loss is now only 37 pips).
Edit 5.30pm NY time The market moved up to as high as 1.3667 and stopped the trade out at 1.3657
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 362
It is 1.30am NY time Monday May 18 and the market is at 1.3460
As projected, the market fell to 1.3500 on Friday. As stated on Friday, the falling resistance line from the highs of July 15 2008 to Dec 18 2008 and now sitting at around 1.3500 is the only game in town. We have seen a break down through the line but again, it is not a convincing move at this point.
We picked up another 100 pips profit on Thursday (which takes us well over 1400 pips profit per standard contract in less than nine months).
I am not ready to gamble on a 50/50 bet as to which way the market will jump. I want to see more positive direction.
I will be watching London and NY openings closely today
Edit 7.50 am NY time Market at 1.3495 London was dull but early NY trading has pushed the market up to 1.3500 exactly. With nothing on the news calendar for today, I would not be surprised to see this market range 50-60 pips either side of 1.3500 today.
Edit 10.00am NY time Market has been between 13488 and 1.3515 (a range of only 15 pips either side of 1.3500). Still not enough certainty to trade a direction, but it appears to have a downward bias
Edit 1.35pm NY time Market has been as low as 1.3468 and as high as 1.3540. Still within the 50 pips either side of 1.3500.
Emails
Email 1
You nailed it as usual ( in @ 1.3554 out @ 1.3652 ) for + 98 pips Excellent
Nice to know things are getting more predicable .... I think so
What will you be looking for in the next set up ? I think it may bounce up to around 1.3500 and then drop...I have a feeling that Miss Market has been trying to mislead and confuse us on the Daily...I think that the longer term downtrend may be back in force
I'll be looking for a bounce off the 50 Fib. Short Good strategy...I am sticking to that Daily Resistance line only
Have a great day Thanks
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 361
It is 1.15am NY time Friday May 15 and the market is at 1.3638
My buys at 1.3550 were sold at 1.3650 for a 100 pip profit. (Mrs Jacko loves me again!!.. LOL).
On the basis that the market had a low of 1.3524 and a high of 1.3665, we were pretty good on the target getting 71% of the move.
Also many traders are now using my projected buy and sell points to trade both ways ....with EXCELLENT results..... Just be careful .
Edit 4.00am NY time Market at 1.3598 I have just been looking at some charts placed by posters on FF. I am amazed at how complex some traders (?) make their charts.
The ONLY chart I am looking at at the present time is the Daily chart set to 300 periods and with only ONE line on it. That is the Resistance line from the highs of July 15 2008 to Dec 18 2008 and now sitting at around 1.3500. That is the only game in town. The question for the next week is whether it will bounce off that line again OR break down through it. I would not be surprised to see it move down to 1.3500 again.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3520 I don't trade on Fridays as a rule because I don't like having positions open over a weekend and I certainly would not attempt to trade the Core CPI (at 8.30am ) and the TIC data (at 9.00am). I will be back on Monday.
Emails
Email 1
I have been learning one other thing from you since joining - patience. I had no idea how often you initiated a trade. I had thought pros like yourself were in the market just about every second day or so. Nooo !!! the biggest cause of loss in Forex trading is overtrading. The 3 best attributes of forex trading is leverage, liquidity and the ability to quickly compound your growth by using profits to increase your lot size..... It does NOT include the potential to trade like a frenzied gamer addict on speed in front of a computer game every second of the day....Forex trading is the "Thinking" mans business
Email 2
EUR/USD seems to have gotten off the 'up' elevator it rode up from ~1.29 on 4/19 and is stopping at a weekly resistance area (learned to identify these FIRST in the SS thread before even thinking about trading a market). That area is where we are now, roughly 1.35-1.37 (big area, yes). How do you know it won't back down from this major resistance area, as it did in mid-march? I don't...I am still only 51% certain that the market is bullish.....i.e. simply, why are you bullish? Because it broke the 4H resistance lines (that was the first hint) and then it broke the Daily resistance line (from July 15 2008 and touching Dec 18 2008), which was the second and stronger hint.... BUT I am still a cautious bull, because I was expecting a bigger push upwards when it broke the Daily resistance line
Email 3
Spend the entire night and a whole pot of coffee reading your blog... Still at Mar 08...
Simply outstanding it liberating how something so simple can be overlook by thousands of trader looking for the next HOLY GRAIL which we know doesn't exists. Exactly...everyone forgets that man has been trading for thousands of years and that they never used Elliot Wave theory etc to make their trades...they just watched how prices reacted to events
Email 4
From your blog, it seems that you have a daily trendline" from resistance (turned support) of the Daily from 1.6037 (July 15 2008) and 1.4718 (Dec 18 2008) and now at 1.3550".
As a newbie, I only concentrate on the H4 first, and I drew my trendlines based on the H4.
1) So when should I take note of trendlines on the daily?
2) I am confused by when should i take note of trendlines draw from a higher timeframes and when to go back to H4 timeframes trendlines?
3) I should start drawing trendlines from daily down to H4? Pls advise.
You have been doing the right thing...In these times of volatililty (now decreasing but still quite high compared to one year ago), the 4H is the best time frame to be working from on a normal basis. However, the market was breaking the 4H resistance lines (which is an early indicator that the market is turning bullish). When it the broke the higher Daily resistance line, then the bullish indicator was stronger again.
Having said that, I am still only 51% certain that the market is bullish..... Because it broke the 4H resistance lines (that was the first hint) and then it broke the Daily resistance line (from July 15 2008 and touching Dec 18 2008), which was the second and stronger hint.... BUT I am still a cautious bull, because I was expecting a bigger push upwards when it broke the Daily resistance line
Email 5
Also question about TL. What is the confirmation for you that TL is really broken? I have seen various theories but I would like to hear your way how do you confirm that? A convincing break of 1.3737 high (from March 19 2009) ....maybe 1.3750+
what do you think which TF is the best for watching the zones for trading more agresive? 4 H
I also remember when you said that everything less then H1 is just a noise... Yes, even the 1H is too "noisy" in this volatility
Email 6
After release of NFP report, EURUSD price was sustained well above its pre-NFP level, and we changed our bias towards Long trades on EURUSD. Yes, it had broken the DAILY resistance line The market will often break a resistance line and go up....then come back down for a "confirmation" touch of the line It will then (more than 50% of the time) continue upward You have a Buy target price of 1.3550. Yes, the price where it was going to come back and touch the line for the confirmation [By the way, this target price of 1.3550 was hit this morning at around 07:50HKT.] However, when I look at the EURUSD 1H and 4H charts, I am confused: EURUSD price has been dropping since 00:00GMT yesterday (13 May 09), this can been clearly seen on the 4H chart. Yes, it must drop to give the confirmation....if it goes UP again, then we are bullish....If it breaks the Daily resistance line, we are going back down again
Email 7
Following on the email 1, understand that you looked for the confirmation retracement to the line at 1.3550 and bought at that point for the Daily Chart. Yes
However, for the 4 Hour chart, could you kindly elaborate on its usage.
Apart from the range between 1.3660 and 1.3100 that was discussed few days ago, could u highlight how this 4 hour support and resistance serve the selection entry. If the Daily resistance line breaks down, then I would revert to the 4H analysis...at the moment , the Daily resistance line is the key indicator....This daily resistance line stretches back to july 15 2008..."the longer the time...the stronger the line"
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 360
It is 1.30am NY time Thursday May 14 and the market is at 1.3573
The market has picked up my buys at 1.3550 and is now trending back up. We are now letting the trade play itself out. It has a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss.
The highest point since the trade was opened was 1.3587 so the TSL has been moved from 1.3450 (1.3550 -100 = 1.3450) to 1.3487 (1.3587 -100 = 1.3487)
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3572 Our 1.3550 "long" trade is still playing itself out.
The Trailing Stop Loss has been moved to 100 pips below the 1.3587 high at 1.3487, so our maximum potential loss has now been reduced to 63 pips.
If the market continues to move up, the TSL will be adjusted upwards reducing any potential losses, but not be so tight as to have us closed out prematurely by the "noise" in the market.
Edit 3.45am NY time The market has now been as high as 1.3610 so our TSL has now been adjusted to 1.3510. Our maximum potential loss has now been reduced to 40 pips.
Edit 7.30am NY time The market has now been as high as 1.3618 so our TSL has now been adjusted to 1.3518. Our maximum potential loss has now been reduced to 32 pips.
Edit 11.00am NY time The market is at 1.3582 My 1.3550 "longs" are still in play and the TSL is still at 1.3518. The market is going to range for the rest of the day, so I am setting a target price of 1.3650. I will be content with 100 pips if I can get it today
Edit 1.35pm NY time Market at 1.3626 and still rising slowly.
Edit 2.40pm NY time My 1.3550 "long" trade was closed at 1.3650 for a 100 pip profit
Emails
Email 1
I thought I was on track until the last couple of days...I figured that when the EurUsd hit it's peak of about 1.5947 on the weekly chart on July 6, 2008 that from there to here we were on a downtrend and I believe, you have been mostly a seller from that point on. Yes I was.
Now you are talking about being a BUYER !!! Recently I was trading off the 4H details. However, when the market went through the DAILY resistance line, I then considered that the Daily lines became more influential. Consequently, I became a buyer. So I looked for the confirmation retracement to the line at 1.3550 and bought at that point.
My guess, and it is a guess at this point, is that you are taking direction from the daily and/or 4 hourly and NOT the weekly. Correct. I have been using the 4H as the basis lately (due to the huge volatility from the Finacial crisis) and the Daily resistance line came into dominance when we broke the Daily resistance line
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 359
It is 1-00am NY time Wednesday May 13 and the market is at 1.3669
Yesterday was a frustrating day. I stayed up all night (HK time) hoping to grab a buy at around 1.3550 only to see the market come back to only 1.3588.
Then to compound my frustration, later while I was sleeping, those Aussies kangaroo-jumped the price to 1.3721 in early Asian trading. The market is drifting back now but it has been a disappointing week so far. There has been relatively little movement. Even if I had taken a more "risky" trade at 1.3600 (a trade that I was seriously considering yesterday) it would have been a marginally profitable trade anyway due to the small trading range.
Best to hold out for the prime trades at the best price and the lowest risk
Edit 6.25am NY time The market is at 1.3655 I think we will see my 1.3550 today. This market looks like it is ready to go down to that old Daily resistance (turned Support) line
Edit 8.15 am NY time Market at 1.3631 As I don't want to catch a "falling knife", I will be watching to see if the market goes below my target area of 1.3550, before placing an order. (I prefer to buy as the price is coming back up rather than on the way down). The Core Retail Sales is out in 15 minutes
Edit 9.25am NY time Market at 1.3596 I have decided to place a limit order to BUY at 1.3550. It will have a 100 pip TSL. SMS message being sent now.
Edit 1.25pm NY time Market at 1.3578 I am still waiting patiently for the 1.3550 to be hit but it is close.
Emails
Email 1
Do you think this might hit the 4hour resistance of 1.3735 (from March 23rd) before retracing ? Possible...BUT if it doesn't get there and turns down, it will go back all the way to 1.3550
Email 2
I know that when trading, having control over one's emotion and patience is very important. Do you have any suggestion to overcome these two very important factors towards profitable trading the FX market? The best suggestion is to see if there are any successful long term traders who are not in control of their emotions and are not very patient. Mark assures me that there are none
Email 3
I got myself a program I can backtest trading methods with, and have merrily been playing around with it. I think trade selection could still use some refinement, :) but my biggest issue seems to be taking profits. Even using a trailing stop, I find it leaves a lot of money on the table. One of the hardest thigs for a trader to come to grips with in forex is the issue of leaving money on the table....it almost offends the novices concept of not closing at the best price...But in a market that jumps and dips, NO ONE will ever get it perfect every time. It is the volatility that does not allow it to happen. The more you try to squeeze out the last dollars of profit is when you start using Target Prices (which is guaranteeed to cause novice traders much worse "emotional" problems because of the "woulda, shoulda, couldas")
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 358
It is 1.15am NY time Tuesday May 12 and the market is at 1.3600
As stated yesterday, the trend appears to have changed to the "long" bias. The retracement of Friday's move has only been as low as 1.3556, which seems a little too shallow. I think that there may be a deeper retracement to come in the next 48 hours. The market is very quiet as the Sydney market is ready to close.
I will be back for the London open.
Edit 3.45am NY time London has taken it up 40 pips but it is not a strong move. I still expect that a bigger retracement is near. The UP movement around the 1.3600 area has not been very convincing since the beginning of this week.
Edit 8.05am NY time Hmmm..market has had a quick run to 1.3695 in the last 20 minutes. I am looking for a point to go long. Looking for a retracement but there has been little opportunity to buy at a discount
Edit 10.55am NY time Market at 1.3640 I am looking to buy at the resistance (turned support) of the Daily from 1.6037 (July 15 2008) and 1.4718 (Dec 18 2008) and now at 1.3550
Edit 1.35pm NY time Market at 1.3620. The maket is slowly edging back down to my buy target area of 1.3550.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 357
It is 1.30am NY time Monday May 11 and the market is at 1.3627
The market finally broke out of its directionless trading after the NFP announcement on Friday. The Euro has now broken above the Daily trend line from 1.6037 (July 10 2008) and 1.4718 (Dec 18 2008). Having said that, I feel that the market may see some retracement today, of the move made on Friday. However, the trend appears to have changed to the "long" bias.
I am looking forward to trading this week. We could be in the early stages of a bull move that could take us back up as high as 1.4700
Edit 3.50am NY time Market at 1.3600 Market is trying for a retracement of some of Fridays move. I would not be surprised to see this market at 1.3500 (or even 1.3450) later today
Edit 8.10am NY time Market has moved s l o w l y down to current price of 1.3575. It is currently sitting right on the Daily trend line, but is looking heavy. I still think that this market will head retrace back to 1.3500 or less. I am looking for a "long" position, but I am still not sure how strong this retracement will be, so I want to see the action when it falls
Edit 10.30am NY time Market is at 1.3614 It is the start of a new week. I have my 4H chart out:
The support line. By linking up all the lows on the 4H chart starting with 1.2455 (March 3) and touching 1.2479 (March 5), 1.2887 (April 20), 1.2897 (April 21) , 1.2910 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28). (NOTE The spike down to 1.2884 (on April 22) can be ignored. ) Following that support line we see a price of 1.3100 as at today
The resistance line By linking up all the highs on the 4H chart starting with 1.3735 (March 23) and 1.3667 (May 11). Following that resistance line we see a price as at today of around 1.3660.
So we can see that the range for early this week will be between 1.3660 and 1.3100.
However, we are a LONG way above the support line and sooner or later the market will head back towards that support line
Finally the 50% fib from 1.2963 to 1.3667 shows that we may see a move to 1.3315
Edit 1.05pm NY time Market at 1.3584 and still looking heavy
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 356
It is 1.00am NY time Friday May 8 and the market is at 1.3390
This week has been very directionless. The market is coming out of the very real fear of a global financial collapse and has been waiting to see the impact on the ECB and Fed decisions in the last week or two.
This week we were unlucky not to have had the AH trade at 1.3420 triggered. Again yesterday, if the market had gone just 1 pip higher to 1.3470 and triggered the AH we would currently be in profit. It is a business where sometimes 1 pip makes a difference.
As discussed in Message 351 below, we are still very well in profit. It should also be noted that the 42.44% annualized return that we have achieved to date is based on a very conservative and safe 2% risk of capital on any one trade. It shows that a trader does not need to go out there and risk 10-20% on each trade to earn a very good rate of return each year.
On the other hand, it also shows that when a trader becomes experienced and learns how to trade properly and profitably, if they want to increase the risk per trade, then the returns become extraordinarily good.
So the first goal of each trader should be to learn to trade properly, because the leverage will always be there for you in the future to increase your risk profile for accelerated earnings.
The worst thing you can do, in the early stages, is to recklessly endanger you account by going high % risk on each trade.
Remember, this is a skill that you are learning so that you can do this (forex trading) whenever and where-ever you want...for the rest of your life.
I won't be trading today. As you know, I have a dislike of opening a trade on a Friday but more importantly, I am in HK and I am 12 hours in front of NY and when NY opens today I will be at a birthday party for the daughter of one of my best friends. It is the first time in probably 35 years that I have been invited to an 18th birthday party (I am 54 yo), so I will miss the fun of the NFP. (For those of you who have from Europe..... I hope I don't look like Mr Berlusconi...LOL).
Seee you next week
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 355
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday May 7 and the market is at 1.3290
The market has been very directionless this week with a range of of basically only 100 pips (1.3350 plus or minus 50 pips). It has actually been a week where staying on the sidelines has been the best option.
Today and tomorrow , should be big days for trading with
Firstly, the ECB delivering it vote on monetary policy at 7.45am NY time followed by the ECB Press coference at 8.30 am NY time (The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference)
Secondly, the Final results of the bank stress test delivered at 5pm NY time and
Thirdly, the NFP numbers at 8.30am NY time on Friday.
I am still looking for the direction of this market in the medium term (though I am leaning towards the short direction down to 1.3200 in the short term) . It is sitting mid way betweeen the new resistance line and the support line
The resistance line By linking up all the highs on the 4H chart starting with 1.3735 (March 23)...to 1.3436 (May 4)...to 1.3435 (May 5), we see a price of around 1.3400 as at today
The support line. By linking up all the lows on the 4H chart starting with 1.2455 (March 3) and touching 1.2479 (March 5), 1.2887 (April 20), 1.2897 (April 21) , 1.2910 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28). (NOTE The spike down to 1.2884 (on April 22) can be ignored. ) Following that support line we see a price of 1.3080 as at today
The 50% fib from 1.3436 to 1.2963 is at 1.3200
Edit 4.00am NY time Market is at 1.3256 The market has moved out of the range and towards the 50% fib at 1.3200. However, the main game starts at 7.45am NY time with the ECB vote.
Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.3365 ECB lowered interest rates by 25 bp as expected. Market has only risen a small amount and is now dropping back. I think that the Euro may fall in the medium term. Still too unclear to make a decent trade at the moment
Edit 10.05am NY time The market has been as high as 1.3469 today...I almost was prepared to send out an advice that I was going with the AH from earlier this week, but decided to let it hit the minimum of 1.3470
Edit 1.05am NY time Market at 1.3393 I am now regreting that I didnt take that AH trade at when the market hit 1.3470. But the AH rule is that it has to go at least 50 pips past the previous Stop out point. In this case the previous stop out point was 1.3420. So it had to go to at least 1.3470. And the market only went as high as 1.3469
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 354
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday May 6 and the market is at 1.3260
The market has fallen through the (resistance turned) support line and is heading south.
This looks like one of those very rare occasions when my AH trade was not picked up. As you will recall, the market needed to go to 1.3470, at which point my A-H trade wwould have been triggered at 1.3420, which is where we were stopped out. However the market only went as high as 1.3436. (If the AH had been triggered, we would have sold at 1.3420 and would now be 160 pips in profit...That is 1.3420 - 1.3260 = 160). And the market is still falling, so our profits would be increasing
We now wait for the next opportunity.
Edit 3.10am NY time Market is at 1.3303. London open has been very subdued so far. There are not any high probability targets in view so far. It is sitting in the middle of the range and showing no real direction so far. The short term pressure seems to be on the UP side....but too much potential "risk" to trade it
Edit 8.45am NY time Market at 1.3355 The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in at a better than expected 491K (Still appalling...another 491,000 workers have been "downsized"in one month...so much for security of the salary). However, remember that the ADP numbers are notoriously incorrect. The NFP numbers out on Friday have much more effect. the market is gradually moving upwards again today but they are still in no-mans land at the present time
Edit 10.00am NY time Market at 1.3300 Market is very choppy (up and down...but going nowhere fast !) If in doubt...stay out !
Edit 1.05pm NY time Market at 1.3305. Still doing nothing.
Emails
Email 1
There to be a general lift in the mood globablly (even if for dubious reasons such as positive results from Banks). Beware: This is caused primarily by the dubious rule change regarding "mark to market" of all the dodgy securities that the banks are holding and therefore allowing them to grossly overvalue their "assets'" As I read it, this could weaken the USD safe-haven effect, thereby driving the dollar down.Yes The potential for inflation to creep back in due to the rampant money printing in the US could have further downward pressure on the dollar. Yes There's obviously a lot more in play than just these factors, but I see a decent fundamental argument for the EURUSD to head up a bit.. Yes Would you agree with this? yes...the only provisos I see are firstly what will China do to safeguard the value of its Treasury holdings? and secondly, how soon will a European satellite country economy default and set off a chain reaction through Eastern Europe?
Email 2
I know over the last 6 months plus when markets have been extra volatile you have managed to survive and done extremely well. I was wondering how much was that actually down to a specific strategy of you staying away/out of the markets or just other distractions which meant that you were away from trading. When I was in Beijing, the whole thing started...if you recall, it all hit the fan to coincide with the opening of the Beijing Games. When I saw the huge volatility during the time of the Games, I knew that I was going to not jump into that storm
Email 3
Drawing trendlines ....... I have read then when you draw them that you are supposed to ignore the tails and only use the bodies .... surely this is wrong because if you ignored the tails then you are ignoring the lows/higs from which to draw the trendlines ...... which is correct? I don't use candles for exactly that reason...I use simple bar charts
Email 4
Jacko, i sold last night at the trend line on the 4h chart @ 3334, 0253 gmt. It appeared consolidated to me and ready to breakdown, being rejected by the trend line. OK I set a 100 tsl and had 3150 as a profit target. although the support looked lower than that. ok I thought it was a good trade but was a little fuzzy on a profit target. It turned north with conviction @ 3212 and because we have had an undecided market for the last week it seems, i got out @ 3281. Ok i just wanted to see if you thought that was a good place to pull the trigger you were good at the trend line and what my profit target should have been 3150 was good and did i bail out early? Too early? No i know you dont bend your rules so i questioned getting out and just letting it st0p out which it would have just a few moments ago. As long as you had all that planned BEFORE you took the trade, you did everything correct...you were just unlucky...Don't sweat it...move on to the next trade
Email 5
Regarding your sell at 1.3340, the market has rallied up to 1.3424, (at 12:15pm). ok Until now for the number of trades that you have suggested, I have noticed that the market tends to go higher than the suggested entry point. yes...I would like to get the exact turning point every time...but I am not that good !!...LOL Is it perhaps that I have seen very few of your trades or have you noticed the same? I am trying to improve... I presume you are looking at a point where you consider the return back to the main trend resumes, Yes however are you capturing the number of times where the market goes against your position to improve the entry point for future trades? Yes I just would like to understand your thinking process. At this stage I am interested in knowing how to trade well and improve my thinking process, and less interested with the Profits or Losses I can get replicating your signals, Just remember that if you are trying for perfection in every trade....and get disappointed with yourself if you don't achieve that...then you will find forex trading very frustrating. You need to realise that it is a percentage game and that a high win rate is better....but a 100% success rate is impossible.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 353
It is 1.15am NY time Tuesday May 5 and the market is at 1.3364
The market has broken above the resistance line outlined yesterday, so we need to see if that line now becomes support, in which case the trend has moved into an uptrend OR it breaks back down through the support and the down trend continues.
Edit 3.15am NY time Market is at 1.3352. It is sitting right on the (resistance turned) support line. The next 24 hours will determine the direction of the market for the medium term
Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.3400 The market has moved back higher again leading up to the US session. The US session should give us the answer as to whether the trend has changed and moved into an UP trend for the medium term.
Edit 1.05pm NY time Market at 1.3352 The US session has been indecisive. While staying above the (resistance turned) support line, it has now come back to it again. I am waiting for a clearer signal of where this is going before placing another trade
Emails
Email 1
when you say you placed a sell with a Trailing Stop Loss do you mean a true trailing stop loss or one that you move manually as the price moves? I use a manual system because I am not prepared to leave an issue such as the SL's on big lot numbers to a computer program
Email 2
You know what amazes me the longer I play this game? The timing of everything... certain events happen just when the market is at a tipping point, thats right...because the market is built on expectation it's neat actually. welcome to the "land of the observant".....congratulations, you are really starting to get it now...you are getting "experience"....The market moves to the tipping point to coincide with the "certain events"
Email 3
how many hours do you stay in front of the monitor...? If you take out my emails, my time in front of a computer is minimal...the computers are on in my apartment and I can see just by walking past how the market is going. Also Hong Kong is great because there are news programs (Bloomies, Channel News Asia, etc) in many shops so I can easily keep up to date. Also, I have bought myself a little tiny Asus computer that fits in Mrs Jackos purse/bag so I can track the market (and update my blog) much easier when she is shopping In my case, I've found myself wayyyy more productive when I approach my charts with a clear head than after spending many hours in front of them. The market has an addictive quality about it...the more you watch it, the more you get mesmerised by it...It is a serious danger
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 352
It is 1.15am NY time Monday May 4 and the market is at 1.3316
The asian market has been very thin with Australia being closed for Labor Day and the European market will be the same with London being closed for the May Bank holiday.
Edit 3.30am NY time I am busy finalising the last of the accounts for the Fund with the Auditor and sending them out. (Our investors are well pleased !) I will be back for the US session.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is at 1.3235 It is the start of a new week. I have my 4H chart out:
The support line. By linking up all the lows on the 4H chart starting with 1.2455 (March 3) and touching 1.2479 (March 5), 1.2887 (April 20), 1.2897 (April 21) , 1.2910 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28). (NOTE The spike down to 1.2884 (on April 22) can be ignored. ) Following that support line we see a price of 1.3020 as at today
The resistance line By linking up all the highs on the 4H chart starting with 1.3735 (March 23) and 1.3385 (April 30). Following that resistance line we see a price as at today of around 1.3350.
So we can see that the range for today will be between 1.3350 and 1.3020.
Finally the 50% fib from 1.3385 and 1.2963 shows that we may see a move initially to 1.3174
Edit 10.30am NY time The market has raced up to the resistance line after the release of the Pending Home Sales numbers. I have just sold at 1.3340 with a 100 pip TSL
Edit 6.00pm NY time After entering the market with a sell at 1.3340, the Euro dropped only as low as 1.3320. I reset my TSL to 1.3420. The market then moved quickly to as high as 1.3424 taking out my SL and closing me out for a loss. Now waiting for market to hit 1.3470 and higher before I set the AH trade at 1.3420. (Note. The market has broken the 4H resistance line...we may be seeing a change in trend direction in the medium term)
Emails
Email 1
I noticed in the last few trades that your entry/exits decisions have been based more on trendlines versus fibonacci levels. I think that trend lines are stronger. Also I only look at the 50% fib...the others are not sufficiently "statistically robust' Then I look at round numbers What is your rationale behind that or are seeing the market moving more off trendlines. More pros use trend lines than Fibs...fibs are still considered a bit more "exotic" than the plain old, basic trend lines
Email 2
So I have read all of your blog and I have noticed that you have apparently let your fund trades, become "your" trades. Noooo, it is the other way around...MY trades are replicated by the Fund I have noticed several times you outline trades an "adventurous" trader would take and then afterwards be upset you didn't take it. I am not prepared to trade as risky as they are prepared to trade (because I now have a serious duty of care to the Fund), but I am quite happy to advise everyone else how some other traders are trading Shouldn't you allow yourself a little more risk, and seperate your trades from the fund? The Fund is a way of keeping my results accountable to everyone in the group so that they can see that my trading method is profitable. Also, the Fund was marketed to Marks investors on the basis that they get ALL the action from my trades...not just selective trades BTW I also got in on your Friday trade and got out with a cool 60 pips. Excellent I can't believe I have this for a whole year!
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 351
It is 1.00am NY time Friday May 1 and the market is at 1.3265
The final trade for April was our A-H trade where we sold at 1.3333 and bought them back at 1.3242 for a 91 pip profit. Again, the A-H has shown to be an excellent strategy
The month of April was a good month with a total of 388 pips per contract for the Fund and myself for the month. (Mrs Jacko is well pleased with me again...as will our investors in the Fund).
As discussed in the blog earlier this month, the volatility caused by the financial crisis is starting to subside and we are now ramping up our trading to a more aggressive stance.
We are now in the process of finalising our quarterly results for the Fund but they are looking very good.
Edit 4.15am NY time The market is now at 1.3260. Whilst I believe that the market will move down, I will not be trading today. It is a Friday and I have a mountain of paperwork to do for the end of quarter for the Fund (I have to double check all the accounts before I hand them to the Auditors) and also I have lots of emails still to answer (after our night on the town with friends).
For those of you who are interested in the performance of the Managed Fund, this is an excerpt of the Message to the investors. It is also reflective of my own trades:
The Fund earned 567 pips over the last Quarter (Feb -April ) with the majority in April. This is a return of 46.6% annualized for the quarter.
Since the date of the inception of the Fund on 8/08/2008, and the commencement of trading on 8/28/2008, we have accumulated 1421 pips over 245 days. Using the calculations below , we can see that this is equal to a 42.44% annualized return.
In a time where Funds and investors around the world have pounded to dust and bankruptcy, we (as shown through our Managed Fund) are trading at better than 42%+ return for the year to date.
While this is much, much lower than the returns I have earned over 2006 and 2007, our 42%+ return to date in the 2008/2009 year is much better than the average investment (where the Dow has lost 50%, property has lost approximately 30% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable).
As I said in late March, I can feel the market coming back to a semblance of stability compared to the unwelcome extremes of volatility we have had in the last months of last year and the first 3 months of 2009. I am keen to make up for that lost time, where I had slowed my trading down and hunkered down to weather the storm. We have still been achieving very good results to date. But now that the volatility is settling down, it is time to ramp up our trading and go for the super-normal profits.
The last month (April) was a better month. I expect that it is a better indicator of future trading.
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