It is 1.10am NY time Tuesday June 30 and the market is at 1.4102
The market moved very little in yesterdays late US session due to lack of any news during the day. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers at 10.00am today will have an impact.
The market has broken the Resistance line at 1.4120 then moved as high as 1.4131 and has now fallen back to 1.4102. I have been speaking to a number of brokers today and they are saying that the market is bullish. This makes me feel confident because the brokers are almost always wrong...LOL. (If they were any good as traders , they would not be working as brokers and taking complaints all day from unhappy traders).
However, it has made me step back and watch this market for a little longer. I am still 51% confident that we are seeing a very slow turn in the market but I am prepared to consider that I may be wrong. So rather than take a trade that could be wrong, I will wait until I see more evidence of direction.
Edit 3.10am NY time Market at 1.4106 The market spiked up to 1.4151 on very thin volume in late Asian trade but London has immediately slapped it back down to the 1.4106.
Edit 8.30am NY time Market at 1.4125 The market is sitting only 25 pips from where it started the day some 7 hours ago. I want to see a direction before I place money on this market.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4037 I have an apology to make. As the market started to fall just after the last post, I made an instant decision to sell. The fall was starting to move so I executed market orders and by the time I had placed all the orders and we had checked all the trades, the market had dropped too far for me to blog it and SMS it to each of you. (it was around 1.4080) I apologize but I also have a priority and responsibility to earning profits for the Fund. My average sell price was 1.4116 and I closed them at 1.4015. (Given the speed the market dropped, it was reasonably obvious that 1.4000...or close to it... would be the bounce point). I expect the market to bounce up for the second half of this US session, but the crack in the market means that the bears will be in charge for this week.
Edit 12.40pm NY time Market at 1.4040 I am looking to sell again later today or tomorrow
(The market MAY drift back up as high as 1.4100...but I believe that the bears are in play for this week)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 393
It is 1.10am NY time Monday June 29 and the market is at 1.4026
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4137 (June 24) and 1.4117 (June 26) . we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4120
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3827 (June 23) and 1.3888 (June 25) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3900.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib from 1.3888 (June 25) to 1.4117 (June 26) at 1.4002 has just been hit in early Asian trade today. So we now move to the next possible 50% Fib on a longer time frame.
The next 50% Fib on a larger time is from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880.
And the final 50% Fib of note is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at 1.3650
I am a SELLER again this week.
As stated previously, I believe that the break of the previous 4H support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) is a good indicator that we are in a bearish market and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.
Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness and volatility is partially disguising the move down.... but the trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.
To demonstrate the choppiness, from as far back as May 21 right up to today, the euro has traded in a tight range of (plus or minus) 250 pips around the central 1.4000 price. Making it even more challenging for traders is the fact that within that tight range, the volatility swings are much bigger and faster than previously.
The market is moving into a tight wedge and I expect to see a large breakout this week. It will likely coincide with the NFP announcement on Thursday.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.4001. The market has dropped to as low as 1.3982 but i was not awake to trade when the market was trading at its highs. However, this market will come back into a sell zone soon.
Edit 8.05am NY time Market at 1.4062 The market has moved back up towards the Resistance line but has not gone far enough to get in the sell zone. I would want to see it get to around the 1.4115 mark before looking at it again
Edit 12.05am NY time Market at 1.4053 The market is doing very little, The market has been as high as 1.4080 and is now sitting in the 1.4050's. I am now going to bed and will check out the market again when I wake.
Emails
Email 1
I was wondering when do you review the trendlines you set out on Monday, is this an ongoing process yes or do you basically decide on a Sunday/Monday what the TLs are going to be for the week and stick to this? Nooo...I always am prepared to admit that I may be wrong and adjust the charts for new information/price action
The market made a higher low on the 23/06 compared to 15/06 and a higher high on the 24/06 compared to 19/06. Would this indicate a change to an uptrend again, discarding the option of a short-term down? Possible...I still have it in my mind that we are in a short term bear market that has been turning slowly but that the excessive choppiness is disguising the turn
Do you have any opinion when we will see this whole mess return to a bit more normal levels again with decreased volatility etc? As the financial crisis purges the economy of the excesses, it will gradually move back to less volatility
Thanks a lot, I'm still reading through the past year on your blog trying to extract the essential information The markets will be here for the rest of your liife
Trading's been up and down since I joined but I keep telling myself it's much better that this happens in the beginning then having a great run and getting too confident too quickly. Enjoy it ...you are getting "experience" in a difficult time. You are witnessing one of the great financial upheavals of your time....I experienced the crash in 1987 and the dotcom meltdown...the previous generation experienced the Great depression and a horrific World War...so enjoy this time because the experience will give you an investment experience headstart over most of your generation
Email 2
I have made a bit more success since January by looking for a market where the trend is blindingly obvious (even to a thick 5 yr old) and applying your techniques of going with the trend - trading on retracement, round numbers etc. In particular USD/CAD, AUS/USD and GPB/USD have all had periods where they have 'trended' better than EUR/USD. Ok
So, have I just got lucky trading markets where I have minimal experience? No, I don't think so....As you have been trading you have been learning and getting more experienced...and your skill level is increasing, even if you are unaware of it
And, if I am going to treat this like a business, do I need to study one market so that I know it inside out and have an extra 'edge' as you do, in addition to the strength of your system? If you are trading from a pure technical aspect you can use various pairs...I just prefer the one pair
Or are your basic rules robust enough that they can be applied across a number of forex markets where an obvious trend can be identified? Yes easily - I have made minor adjustments such as increasing the stoploss sometimes to 120 or 150 during more volatile periods - a bit arbitrary but it has certainly kept me in some profitable trades. thats being adaptive and pragmatic...that is fine
In other words - Does choosing a market with a very obvious trend give me an extra 'edge' which I cannot achieve from long term experience or innate ability? Yes
Thanks again for being so generous with your time and advice. Thank you...it was an interesting email
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 392
It is 3.40am NY time Friday June 26 and the market is at 1.4049
I apologize for the delay in posting today but I have been in the grip of a Hong Kong realtor and two of his associates. The words "tenacious" and "not taking no for an answer" reached new levels today. It was like being hugged by three grizzly bears and and an octopus or two trying to get hold of my wallet with all their hands. They simply could not believe that I did not want to buy the property they were trying to sell me.
Anyway, on to trading. As stated yesterday, I would like to see one more movement up above the 1.4000 mark to rescue my A-H soldier at 1.4020 because I also can't shake the intuitive feeling that when we come out of this trading range we have been in for the last 30 days, that the Euro is heading south.
Also, although it is a Friday, I have decided to have a quick trade and get out by the mid US session.
I am a SELLER at 1.4020 or higher.
Edit 4.00am NY time I have just sold at 1.4038. I have a 100 pip TSL...
Edit 8.05am NY time Market is at 1.4090. The market has moved against me by 52 pips but in an erratic market, it is not where it is that matters, it is where it ends up at the end of the trade. The market has moved to as low as 1.4014 so I've moved my TSL to 1.4114.
Edit 12.01pm NY time Market at 1.4055 The market is meandering around and my TSL at 1.4114 is still in place so I have decided to leave the trade in place and let it play itself out. I may close it before the close of business but I will SMS you if I do.
Edit 6.00pm NY time Market is closed. The market spiked up to a high of 1.4117 taking out my SL by just 3 pips before dropping back to 1.4160's.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 391
It is 1.05am NY time Thursday June 25 and the market is at 1.3959
The market is back at the 1.3950 area that it loves so well. It has been fluctuating around the 1.4000 mark (plus or minus 200 pips for the last 30+ days). This has made it very difficult to trade unless you are a consummate expert practitioner of the skill of scalping...
The FOMC announcement yesterday was overshadowed earlier in the day by the report that the SNB was considering intervening in the Swiss Franc. This had the immediate flow-on effect of sending the Euro down almost 100 pips in minutes. (Interestingly, it was only a couple of months ago when another rumour of SNB intervention sent the Euro up 150 +pips in minutes).
The report of the SNB intervention and the subsequent immedita drop in the euro in turn took some of the impact out of the FOMC announcement, though it still dropped 110 pips (from 1.3998 - 1.3887) in less than 30 minutes.
Ironically, my A-H trade would have been an excellent trade, but I considered the risk of opening a trade before a FOMC announcement as being far too risky. If it had been any other news event, except for a FOMC or NFP announcement, I would have left it in place.
As you know the two biggest market moving announcements are the FOMC announcements and the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers. They have the ability of moving the Euro 200+ pips in minutes accompanied by huge widening of spreads and major slippage in executing orders.
Edit 3,15am NY time Market at 1. 3954 Will be watching to see the market direction for a while... We seem to be sitting in no-mans land where it could go either way, but not very far in either direction
Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.3942 London session was very dull with little movement. The US Unemployment Claims in 20 minutes timemay spark the market up
Edit 11.45am NY time Market at 1.3944 The market has been trying to crack down through the 1.3900 mark but it has been holding. I would like to see one more movement up above the 1.4000 mark to rescue my A-H soldier at 1.4020 because I also can't shake the intuitive feeling that when we come out of this trading range we have been in for the last 30 days, that the Euro is heading south
Emails
Email 1
Hey Jacko, I was lucky that I kept my AH order at 1.4020 in place. I was planning to get out an hour before the FOMC news, so I was pleasantly surprised by the move from the Swissie news and grabbed 55 pips because I thought that it was a temporary jump down. Six months ago, I would not have seen it that way. Instead I would have thought that the market was going to drop and keep on dropping. Following your trading in the last 11 months has taught me patience and that the market always retraces and to not let the excitement of the moment carry me away. Congratulations... LOL... you had a lucky break on that trade. (Reports of SNB intervention don't come out every day). Every so often, the gods of trading bestow a bonus on traders that we should all gratefully accept as a payback for those times when the market nicks us by a pip.
Email 2
do u think this euro is heading down Yes I think that it is turning down (see the daily charts) but at a very low speed and with lots of deceptive choppiness
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 390
It is 1.05am NY time Wednesday June 24 and the market is at 1.4095
I have an Anti-hedge Sell order at 1.4020. I am waiting for it to become active. It will have a 100 pip TSL.
The big news event for today is the FOMC meeting which is expected to leave rates unchanged.
Edit 3.10am NY time market at 1.4127. The market is really pricing in a lot of belief that either US interest rates will be lowered (highly unlikely) or that Mr Bernanke will announce more Quantitative Easing (the new buzz words for "printing money at an obscene rate").
Edit 5.00am NY time Market at 1.4094 I am removing my A-H order. The market is moving down from 1.4137 and I don't want to be in the trade when the FOMC statement is announced because the spreads will widen dramatically and the huge volatility will take out all the stops on either side. I would recommend that group traders do the same. There is a difference between aggressive trading and suicidal trading. (Note The FOMC announcements is the biggest mover of the market in regard to News items...150 pip moves in minutes is the norm. Widening spreads, enormous slippage and huge volatility in minutes is a death sentence for traders accounts....Refer to post #7 on the first page of the Jacko's House of Pleasure and Pain thread...Trading the News)Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.4032. As stated earlier, I have removed my A-H order until after the FOMC announcement. We have just seen a sizable drop in the Euro on speculation of SNB intervention of the Swiss franc. The FOMC announcement will be bigger.
Edit 2.05pm NY time Market at 1.3990 The market has drifted down to 1.3990 in readiness for the FOMC statement in ten minutes
Edit 2.25pm NY time Market at 1.3960 The market has fallen on FOMC and i s looking to go lower.
Emails
Email 1
Wayne, when I look at a chart showing the 4 hr timeframe, I see the market higher on the right side of the chart & lower on the left. That would seem to indicate that we have an uptrend. Yes, but that uptrend support line was broken on June 15 Is it because that support lines continue to be broken the reason that you believe we are in a bearish situation/trend? yes & does the fact that we broke the resistance line today change your opinion? the break of the Resistance line is a warning sign of a potential change...I would want to see it drop back to the line for confirmation , then move upwards ....then I would say that the trend had changed
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 389
It is 1.05am NY time Tuesday June 23 and the market is at 1.3855
The market has been doing nothing during Asian session today.
I am still wanting to go short at 1.3950. The trend is becoming more clear that it is downwards.
Those who took the aggressive trade yesterday did well. I was hoping that it would go higher to my 1.3950 but the aggressive traders had to be content with a high of 1.3901. I had a difficulty trading against the trend so I left it but am feeling more adventurous as the market shows its direction.
Will be back for London open.
Edit 3.30am NY time Market at 1.3880 London has taken the market up to as high as 1.3893 but seems to be having trouble getting past the 1.3900 area. I will be in a meeting for the next 90 minutes, so I will check as soon as I get out
Edit 5.20am NY time Market at 1.3932 Looking to SELL at 1.3950 or higher. I will SMS as I SELL
Edit 5.42am NY time Decided to be aggressive and I sold at 1.3925. I have a 100 pip TSL.
Edit 8.30 am NY time Market at 1.3985 I am currently paying the price for my impatience. My original strategy of Selling at 1 3950 or higher would have given me a better entry price, but I now have to play out the current trade. My TSL has been moved to 1.4020 (which is 100 pips above the lowest point since I opened the trade).
I am now letting the trade play itself out
Edit 9.05am NY time I have just been stopped out at 1.4020. I will now be relying on the A-H strategy to rescue this trade and return me to a profit.
Under the rules of A-H strategy, I have to wait until the market reaches 1.4070 (which is 50 pips past my Stop out price). At that time, I will then place a Sell order at 1.4020. When the market has finished rising and starts to fall, it will then pick up the A-H Sell on the way back down and continue downwards.
Edit 12.10pm NY time The market has hit 1.4070 triggering an A-H order.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 388
It is 1.00am NY time Monday June 22 and the market is at 1.3915
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4177 (june 11) and 1.4011 (June 19) . we can see that the Resistance line is currently at around 1.4000
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3747 (June15) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3850.
The 50% Fib line The previous 50% fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) at 1.3880 was hit on June 15 so we now move to the next possible 50%b Fib on a longer time frame. The next 50% Fib of note is from 1.2963 (April 28) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at 1.3650
I am a SELLER again this week. I believe that the break of the previous 4H support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) is a good indicator that we are in a bearish market.
I am a SELLER at 1.3950. (I am not sure enough that it will get up to 1.4000 so I am prepared to take the higher risk trade at 1.3950 or higher).
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3860 The market has bounced off the Support line at 1.3850 in late Asian trade. It is too low for me to be interested in selling at these levels. I will wait for it to get back in the better value area of 1.3950 or higher.
Edit 8.30am NY time Market at 1.3830 The market is sitting at just below the Support line. There are no news items today... so the market will be pushed around by the bigger traders. At these levels (1.3830) it is too low to sell and the bias is to trade the more risky counter trend buy trade back up to 1.3950 or higher.
The aggressive trade is the buy at 1.3850 or lower
Edit 11.55am NY time Market at 1.3850 The bigger traders have pushed it around up to 1.3901 and then all the way back down to 1.3850. I would not be surprised to see them take it down some more and then bring it back to around this level again by the end of trade
Edit 5.20pm NY time Market at 1.3855 As expected the market is back to where it started in the US session
Emails
Email 1
Do you give importance to pattern formations like double tops, head and shoulders, tripple tops, etc? Very little importance...the are not sufficiently robust to trade off ....more for background information
What about the candle formations like hammer, shooting star, hanging man, engulfing, etc? No importance at all...they are the toys of amateur traders
Do you always place the long/sell orders by looking into the 1 hour time frame if using 4 hour time frame as the setup chart? No not really. the 4H gives me the approximate number and then I round it up or down depending on the closeness to the nearest round number...The round number is more important than the exact number specified by the smaller time frame charts
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 387
It is 1.30am NY time Friday June 19 and the market is at 1.3945
I can't believe that I hit the 1.4000 target to the exact pip and still missed out on profits this week. Congratulations to those that got filled at 1.4000. I have now cancelled my order. (That target has now been hit.)
I have decided that while my results this year have been reasonable ....1381 pips since the inception of the Fund in Aug and a 40+ % annualised return using a maximum risk of only 2% per trade... they have been lacklustre in the last month or two.
As an excuse, I can only offer that
Firstly, I have been taking a VERY conservative approach so that the risk to YOUR capital was minimized, and
Secondly if you take a look at the weekly chart you can easily see that the market has been EXTREMELY volatile, choppy annd dangerous to your dollars and
Thirdly, I have been giving directions and targets in the blog of where I think the market is going so that the more "adventurous" and "risk-oriented" of you can take advantage of those directions to guide you in your trades (And those more "adventurous" traders who are using my targets and buying and selling based on those targets are doing very, very well).
I have decided to go aggressive in my trading from next week. I will still be trading primarily with the trend but if I see some shorter term counter trend opportunities, I will be trading those as well. I will be trading at all hours in the trading range, but staying primarily within the London open to mid US session.
On a personal note, early this month I wrote this in this blog:
This is a special post. I have been annoyed by a post on Forex Factory (by a non-member called fxterrapin and pipspimp) making wild allegations and inferring that my trading is in the red. Now I do NOT intend to post my results on Forex Factory as they include my personal trades and I don't want my personal income details posted on a Forum. (it is no great stretch to multiply the pips times the number of standard contracts that I trade times USD$10 per pip).
I am appalled that I have just seen a post where one member of this group has published a small segment of the results of my PERSONAL trades on a forum which were "incomplete and totally misleading" in relation to the annual performance and made with the clear intention of degrading my work here with each of you.
I have absolutely no problem with anyone posting their own individual personal results on a forum. But please have some respect my right to privacy to MY trade results.
I respect the privacy of each of you and would never divulge ANY of your details to anyone else (and certainly not publish them on an open forum started by a moron).
I consider that I have been very open regarding all aspects of my trading including giving each of you full and open access to the performance of the private Managed Fund.
Just please be intelligent and respectful to me.
Edit 7.45am NY time I am taking some time off to spend with Mrs Jackson. I won't be trading today. Congratulations to those of you who went long up to 1.4000 and those of you who went short at 1.4000. I will be back on Monday
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 386
It is 1.10am NY time Thursday June 18 and the market is at 1.3937
The market is edging up to my SELL at 1.4000. It has reached as high as 1.3984 and has pulled back again into tight 40 pip range from 1.3975 to 1.3935. My fish is circling closer.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3957. Getting closer......
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3920 The market has reached as high as 1.3990 but has pulled back to its current price. I am hoping that there will be one more move up and that I have not missed the turning point by just 10 pips. Letting the market play itself out for the next hour or two before making a decision.
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.3978 The market has touched 1.4000 but I have not been filled. I am handing over to Mark (an ex-broker who works with me). We may or may not be a SELLER at exactly 1.4000. We think it now may bounce up above it and Mark is hoping to get a better price for us. But we will definitely be a seller at 1.4000 or better. I have no problem with the 1.4000 target
Edit 7.00pm NY time I can't believe that I hit the 1.4000 target to the exact pip and still missed out on profits this week because of the spread. I have decided that while my results this year have been good ....1381 pips since the inception of the Fund in Aug and a 40+ % annualised return using a risk of only 2% per trade... they have been lacklustre in the last month or two.
As an excuse, I can only offer that
Firstly, I have been taking a VERY conservative approach so that the risk to YOUR capital was minimized, and
Secondly if you take a look at the weekly chart you can easily see that the market has been EXTREMELY volatile, choppy annd dangerous to your dollars and
Thirdly, I have been giving directions and targets in the blog of where I think the market is going so that the more "adventurous" and "risk-oriented" of you can take advantage of those directions to guide you in your trades (And those more "adventurous" traders who are using my targets and buying and selling based on those targets are doing very, very well).
I have decided to go aggressive in my trading from next week. I will still be trading primarily with the trend but if I see some shorter term counter trend opportunities, I will be trading those as well. I will be trading at all hours in the trading range, but staying primarily within the London open to mid US session.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 385
It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 17 and the market is at 1.3868
The market did not reach my target of 1.4000 yesterday. The closest it got to the target was 1.3932. However, in the current market where swings of 200 pips per day are common, I would rather buy or sell at the extremes rather than have my Stop Losses taken out by those extremes. The market is currently moving up again so, like a patient fisherman, I am waiting for the market to strike at my target. My SELL order at 1.4000 is still in place.
Edit 3.00am NY time Market at 1.3912 Market is slowly moving up to my target. The fish is swimming around my bait). I expect my order to get filled today
Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.3840 This market has been stuck in a 100 pip range from 1.3820 to 1.3920 for the last 32 hours and going nowhere. I am expecting NY session will give us more direction
Edit 12.20pm NY time Market is at 1.3868 Market is still tightly ranging but I am still hopeful of getting filled
Emails
Email 1
Jacko, If the Support line turned Resistance was at 1.3955, why didn't you place your order at 1.3950? Firstly, because 1.4000 is a much bigger target for the boys on the institutional trading desks (who are basically bored all day and it brightens up their day and gives them a little excitement that they can cajole and push a market to a big target...then they lose interest...LOL).
Secondly, the current volatility is moving the market in bigger swings , so I want to have a buffer of around 50 pips to cover the current volatility swings and
thirdly, I have a responsibility to make money for the Fund but more importantly, I also have a duty of care not to lose money. (Mrs Jacko expects the same on our private trading account !!!!)
Fourthly,The point is really moot anyway because even if I had placed my trade at 1.3950, I still would not have been filled. The next question is whether I would have placed a SELL order as low as 1.3900? The answer is a strong NO, because I saw that level as to low for a SELL.
Finally, the target of 1.4000 was not hit.......YET !!! It doesn't mean that it won't get hit tomorrow
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 384
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday June 16 and the market is at 1.3805
The market is too low to sell at these prices. And I would not buy against the falling 4H trend. It is looking very oversold from yesterdays trading. I would expect that the market will gradually work its way back up to the Support line now turned resistance line at 1.3955 before heading back down again.
In hindsight I regret not selling yesterday, but I was caught some weeks ago by a Geithner speech that caused the Euro to shoot straight up and blow out a SL. It cost me pips and I was not prepared to be caught again.
However the market is definitely moved into bear territory, so we are looking for a reaction move back up to sell at a good price
Edit 3.20amNY time Market at 1.3860 The market is gradually working its way back up to the Support line now turned resistance line at 1.3955 .
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3908 I will be looking to sell the market at 1.3955 or higher today. Given the volatility in the market lately I will be looking at the high end of the range (towards 1.4000) to be the sell price. Very little news today (just Building Permit numbers and Producer Price Index)
Edit 8.20am NY time I have just placed a Stop Limit order to SELL at 1.4000. It will have a 100 pip TSL
Edit 12.05pm NY time Market at 1.3885 Waiting for order to be hit....
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 383
It is 1.00am NY time Monday June 15 and the market is at 1.3945
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame.
The Resistance line. By linking up the highest points on the 4H chart from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4177 (june 11). we can see that the Resistance line is currently at 1.4130
The Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3955.
The 50% Fib line The 50% fib from 1.3422 (May 17) to 1.4338 (June 3) is at at 1.3880
As stated last week, I believe that the market is showing weakness and the downward bias is becoming more pronounced. We are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days.
I am keen to trade this week. The calendar is clear of any major news events (TIC data today at 9.00am...BUT BEWARE ...Mr Geithner is speaking at 10.00am...The past record is that when Geithner speaks, the USD drops 100-150 pips ...the Euro rises 100-150 pips...within minutes of him speaking).
I will be watching to sell on any spike from his speech, so be prepared for an SMS at around 10.15am today.
Edit 1.20am NY time Market at 1.3945 Market at has dropped just below the Support line at 1.3955 but I believe the advantage of selling at this point is far outweighed by the potential damage that Mr Geithner can do when he speaks at 10.00am this morning. However, Some traders may wish to sell now at 1.3945 but close out before 10.00am, then sell again on any spike up
Edit 3.20am NY time Market has hit the 1.3880 Fib line and stalled. I am hoping to see a bounce to 1.4000 some time today to sell at 1.4000 or above
Edit 7.55am NY time Market at 1.3856 The market is sitting just under the 1.3880 Fib line. I am looking to sell after Mr Geithner speaks.
By the way, I have no beef with Mr Geithner but the Wall St boys must have a real dislike for the guy, because EVERY time Geithner speaks, the big traders just tank the USD and it sends the Euro up 100-150 pips. A couple of weeks ago Geithner made a speech in China at around 7.00am in the morning NY time and the USD was trashed by the traders even at that hour.
I am watching today with interest. Hopefully, the "Geithner effect" will not have worn off...
Edit 10.15am NY time Market at 1.3850. The market has barely moved from Geithners speech . However the market is too low to sell at this price. And I would not buy against the falling 4H trend. It is looking very oversold from Friday and todays trading.
I would expect that the market will gradually work its way back up to the Support line now turned resistance line at 1.3955 in the next 48 hours, before heading back down again
Edit 11.45am NY time Market at 1.3795 Market still dropping but is getting way oversold without a pull back...Caution
Emails
Email 1
Hello Wayne, I am one of your newer members. I have been reading FF and there are traders who are trading from your signals and I am getting some of them but I am not getting them all. Can you check my number Ok, I will send you a test SMS message to check your number but I think it is more likely that the traders you are talking about are some of the more "adventurous" traders who are trading off my discussions here in the blog. They are logging in two to three times a day and trading off the directions that I am talking about in the blog
I only send SMSes to notify about MY trades.
However, I don't ask people to follow only my trades. ,...most of the group trade my trades PLUS their own. Now some traders in the group are using my trading "experience" to assist them in giving a direction for their own trades. And some are doing VERY well.
My blog is reasonably consistent. I post at (approximately) 1.00am NY time (Sydney last hour), 3.00am NY time(London open) 8.00am NY time (New York opening) and 12.30pm NY time (NY lunch time)
Remember, I am not a signal service...My trades are not a recommendation. They are simply to allow you to see when and what I am trading and why.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 382
It is 1.15am NY time Friday June 12 and the market is at 1.4092
I am actually looking forward to putting this week behind me. It started badly and got worse...It must mean I am going to have a good week next week (It is rare that I have two bad weeks in a row).
The market has reached up to the Resistance line at 1.4130, broke through it as far as 1.4177, then quickly dropped back below the Resistance line and has been moving slowly down. Although the market has tentatively broken the Resistance line, I believe that the market is showing weakness and that we are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days.
On the news calendar, the big event is the G8 meeting this weekend attended by finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 nations - Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US - with the addition of Russia. It will no doubt be a love-in where they say all is well with the world, but look for conflicting statements between Russia, Germany and the US
Edit 3.45am NY time Market at 1.4081 London has taken the market down as low as 1.4054. We may, I repeat may. see a drop in the Euro (rise in the USD) today prior to the G8 meeting on the weekend. The US would not want to go into that meeting and be faced with criticism that it is trying to weaken its own currency for political purposes.
On the 4H chart we are seeing a turn in the market from a strong bull run in the Euro to a series of rapid drops followed by slow drives back up.
Again, I believe that the market is showing weakness and that we are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days.
Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.4002 As the US session is about to start, the Euro has gravitated back to the 1.4000 mark (again). As discussed earlier today, I believe that the market is showing weakness and that we are looking at a fall in the Euro in the coming days. As you know. I don't like to open a trade on Friday US sessions as the market loses liquidity after lunch and I certainly don't recommend holding any positions over the weekend especially with a G8 meeting taking place
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4034 After dropping to 1.3934 in early US session, the market has moved back up. I would not be surprised to see the market end at around the 1.4000 mark, in readiness for a continued move down early next week
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 381
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday June 11 and the market is at 1.4050
As discussed yesterday, the market is gyrating round the 1.4000 mark due to no major significant news events. (the Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims are not usually major market movers, though they will give a direction for the rest of the week).
I will be looking for potential trades from todays price movement
Edit 3.10am NY time Market at 1.4011 As stated yesterday in the 12.15pm edit, the market is looking choppy. I stated that it will probably move around the 1.4000 mark plus or minus 50 pips. That is between 1.3950 to 1.4050. (So far, it has moved between 1.3914 and 1.4058)
I am looking for the direction after it moves out of that area. It now looks that it will be a move downwards.
Edit 8.10am NY time Market at 1.3974. It is still moving around the 1.4000 mark but the downward bias is becoming more pronounced. The 4h Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) is sitting at 1.3900. The Resistance line from 1.4338 (June 3) and 1.4266 (june 5) is sitting at 1.4130
Edit 8.45am NY time Market at 1.3980. There has been very little initial impact from the Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims numbers.. The market is still in no-mans land between Support and Resistance and is still looking for a direction.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4085 The market has moved up towards the Resistance line at 1.4130, reaching s high as 1.4111 before moving back down to its current price. The Euro has shown little intention to break out of this narrow range so far. And this narrow range offers very little trading opportunities
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 380
It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 10 and the market is at 1.4095
The last trade shows how fickle the market can be for a trader.
I was stopped out by only 6 pips. I know we shouldn't dwell on the "woulda, shoulda, coulda's " but if that trade had not been stopped out by the current increased volatility, we would be 194 pips in profit (1.4095 - 1.3901= 194 pips ) at the present time.
No excuses.... but the market can be a real pain when that happens...LOL
I am staying on the sidelines to clear my head from the frustration of watching this trade. I don't want to rush in and get caught with a revenge trade and buy at an elevated level. I am looking again for another retracement
Edit 3.15am NY time Market at 1.4080 market has dropped from high of 1.4118 to 1.4057 (61 pips) but not enough to interest me enough to jump back in
Edit 8.25am NY time Market at 1.4082 The market has been very choppy in London trading chopping between 1.4070 and 1.4140 a couple of times. Not a great deal of important news items on the calendar this week, so the choppiness may be around for a couple of days. Still on the sidelines, watching for an opportunity.
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market at 1.4000 The market is still looking choppy. It has fallen as low as 1.3951 and will probably move around the 1.4000 mark plus or minus 50 pips. That is between 1.3950 to 1.4050. I am looking for the direction after it moves out of that area.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 379
It is 1.30am NY time Tuesday June 9 and the market is at 1.3881
My Anti-Hedge buy order at 1.3901 was triggered at 12.25pm yesterday. The A-H has a 100 pip TSL. The market has been as high as 1.3936 so the TSL is now sitting at 1.3836.
I am now letting the trade play itself out.
Edit 4.00am NY time Market at 1.3940 My A-H soldier is moving up slowly. The market has been as high as 1.3965 so I have moved my TSL to 1.3865. However, the market is choppy at the moment so I may look to close this out early and get back in again later. If I do that, I will SMS as I close the trade.
Edit 6.45am NY time Market at 1.3870 The Euro has dropped as a result of German industrial output unexpectedly declining in April. Production dropped 1.9 percent from March when it rose 0.3 percent. This had a disappointing effect of taking out my TSL at 1.3865 for a 36 pip loss. This has been a one of my worse weeks in trading with two back to back losses, including an A-H trade.
Edit 7.15am NY time Market at 1.3887. I have just watched the market move only as low as 1.3856 to take out my TSL by just 9 pips then reversing back up. It has annoyed me.
I have been reviewing the recent volatility measures (the Average Trading Range or ATR) and have noticed that we have had another surge in volatility. Prior to August last year it was extremely rare to see a trading range of more than 200 pips (and a range of 120 to 150 pips was the norm).
Last Friday June 4 the ATR was 334 pips. ..
As recently as March 17, the ATR was 511 pips...(almost equal to the record of 540 pips set at the peak of the panic of the Financial crisis on Dec 17)
I intend to review the parameters of my exits over the next day or two, to minimize these whipsaws affecting my trades.
Edit 7.45am NY time Grrr...The market has bounced straight back up to 1.3960...now I am really annoyed.
Edit 9.00am NY time Market at 1.3988. Beware...WARNING Geithner is due to testify on his department's budget before the Senate Appropriations Committee at 10.30am NY time
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4038 Market has moved higher. I am now waiting on the sidelines looking for the next trade opportunity
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 378
It is 1.45am NY time Monday June 8 and the market is at 1.3974.
As outlined in yesterdays (Sunday) message I have bought at 1.3940 and again at 1.3992. It is a messy trade caused by the very thin trading conditions in the early Asian session due to an Australian Bank holiday.
My TSL is currently set at 1.3901 for ALL of the trades.
Edit 3.45am NY time My two sets of buys have just been closed out. I had bought at 1.3940 (40%) and 1.3992 (60%) for an average of 1.3971. My TSL closed them out at 1.3901 for a 70 pip loss.
Edit 4.45am NY time I am waiting to see if the market hits 1.3851....(the market low so far is only 1.3853). If it hits 1.3851, it will trigger an A-H trade. (An AH trade is triggered when the market has moved 50 pips past the SL...it triggers a pending buy at the point at which I was stopped out...that is 1,3901).
Edit 6.00am NY time Market at1.3827. The USD is staging a big show of strength on the back of the NFP numbers on Friday. Either the strength will continue to take it down or the market will start to see that the Euro is oversold and bounce back. The market has now triggered the A-H. I now have a pending buy order at 1.3901
Edit 10.25am NY time Market at 1.3848. The USD is still showing strength of effects of that strong NFP number. My AH buy order at 1.3901 is still waiting to be activated.
I have been watching this market for over 18 hours today...I am going to hand over to Mark to watch things for me while I get an early night. It is 10.30pm here in HK and I have been going since 4.00am this morning
Edit 5.30pm NY time My AH buy order at 1.3901 was triggered at 12.25pm. The A-H has a 100 pip TSL. The merket has been as high as 1.3928 so the TSL is now sitting at 1.3828
Emails
Email 1
The current reluctance of the EUR/USD to do your bidding and retreat to 1.4000 puts me in mind of the time-honoured injunction that the market will behave as it fancies, which is not necessarily how we want or expect it to behave. LOL...Yes, it certainly does that
I'm impressed by your stoic faith that it will retrace to 1.4000, but, aren't we in danger of falling into this trap? Before you decide on ANY trade, you as a trader, must make a decision as to where you think the market is going.... That is necessary for any trading decision...
I had made a decision that , based on the technical clues that I could see, that the market was going to 1.4000. ....as it turned out, the market did go to 1.4000 and stayed there from 10.00am Friday through to 1.15am today ....but then the effects of a better than expected NFP kicked it lower today
Email 2
I remember you using the term "casino money" and seemingly trading more risky if you are not exposing your initial funds but rather using the gains made already. Again is this still viable or has the volatility removed this option as well due to the higher risk off loss? If anything, the volatility is driving experienced traders to reduce the size of their risk per trade. I personally prefer the option of trading less (more selectively) but maintaining the same risk per trade. But also remember that the "reduction of risk" is not just isolated to forex trading....EVERY industry in the world has been affected. NO industry is able to grow as fast as they could when credit was freely available.
In our industry, we still have access to enormous amounts of funds through leverage. In any other business or industry the reduction of freely available credit is causing businesses to go bankrupt. We are very fortunate that we are individually in control of our own risk. We are NOT being restricted from credit by the brokers
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 377
It is 4.00pm NY time Sunday June 7 and the market is not yet open.
The market finally reached my target of 1.4000 on Friday and, as a result of a better than expected NFP numbers, overshot to as low as 1.3932. As you know, I do not take trades on Fridays, especially after lunch due to low liquidity. But I am looking to buy today. It is important to note that the Sydney (Australia) market is closed today for a Bank holiday, so we may need to wait two hours until the Asian markets open to get any guide on price action.
I have my charts open to 300 periods of the 4H time frame to find an optimal buy point. I am wanting to buy so the critical line is the Support line
Support line By linking up the lowest points on the 4H chart from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3422 (May 17) we can see that the Support line is currently at 1.3910. However, my buy original buy target was 1.4000 so anything less than 1.4000 is a bonus.
The 50% line The earlier 50% fib line from 1.3792 to 1.4338 (at 1.4065) has been broken so we now move to the next potential target which is the 50% fib from 1.3422 to 1.4338 at 1.3880
I am a buyer at 1.4000 or less with an intent to capitalize on the NFP overreaction to hopefully collect my lots under 1.3950. My two Support levels underneath my buys are 1.3910 and 1.3880 (see above). I will be using a 100 pip TSL
I will SMS as I buy them.
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market is very thin. I have bought some lots at 1.3940 but not a lot of them . The market moved straight above after I bought. I am still waiting to get some more.
Edit 10.45pm NY time I have just bought at 1.3992
Edit 11.10pm NY time Market at 1.3987. This has been a scrappy trade so far. I bought some lots earlier at 1.3940 but then the market moved higher without all my orders bein filled.
I was hoping that it would come back to 1.3940 to get the rest of the order but it didn't happen. I waited until it got close to the 1.4000 area and was concerned that if it broke 1.4000 then I would only have the 1.3940's so I bought again at 1.3992
The market has been as high as 1.4001 so my TSL on ALL the trades is now at 1.3901.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 376
It is 1.45am NY time Friday June 5 and the market is at 1.4185
I have been chasing 1.4000 all week as a buy but the market is not being very co-operative. The low so far has been only 1.4069. I am still of the belief that we are in a short term top.
But the 1.4000 wil be a strong support ...it is a big round number , it is close to a 50% Fib (from 1.3792 and 1.4338) and it is on a 4H trend Support line from 1.3422 (May 17) and touching 1.3792 (May 28) which is currently at 1.4000.
The news event for the day is the Non Farm Employment change (NFP) and the Unemployment Claims numbers at 8.30am. Beware if you have any open positions as these numbers cause high volatility and SL get eaten easily
Edit 5.20am NY time Market at 1.4185 London has taken the market down marginally but I wouldn't expect to see too much action until 8.30am with the NFP numbers. Maybe it is just my sensibilities but I am still hugely offended when commentators are saying that the expected number of people who have lost the jobs/livelihood in the last month is expected to be ONLY 520,000. (Thats half a MILLION workers ...in a month !!)
Edit 8.35am NY time NFP reduces to 345k and the USD falls???!!! and Euro shoots to 1.4266 ???/!!! ... Retracement coming !!
Edit 9.02am NY time market now at 1.4090. That was a real "fade the market" trade if ever I saw one...The fall in USD/rise of the Euro was totally irrational. Anyone trading the NFP (before the announcement) is way braver than me. My 1.4000 price will be there for me on Monday
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.3990 . The market has arrived and stabilized at my target of 1.4000. I will be a buyer on Monday (unless some major issue occurs on the weekend).
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 375
It is 1.05am NY time Thursday June 4 and the market is at 1.4153
My target area for a buy still stands at 1.4000. I still believe that we are in a short term top and that we will see 1.4000 soon. We are in a bull market but it is getting toppy. Furthermore, it is a market that is likely to change quickly and often. The reason I say that is because we are STILL in the throes of the financial crisis.
I would like each of you to quickly take a look at the Weekly chart over 300 periods. (If your platform doesn't extend easily to 300 periods, go to Dailyfx.com and click on the EUR/USD live rates and when the chart appears click on "Time Scale" and then click on "weekly") As can be seen, the world changed dramatically in early August 2008. We all stood on the financial edge and stared into the abyss.
We are still in that dramatic UP and DOWN momentum as the world financial system attempts to regain its balance. It is our job to be very selective in our trades and not to get crushed by the remnants of the volatility.
Edit 3.45am NY time Market at 1.4226 The market rose during late late Asian trading and those damn Brits have taken it slightly higher (from 1.4210 to 1.4234). I am not a buyer at these levels.
Edit 8.15am NY time Market at 1.4094 The market is heading down to the target of 1.4000. The market has been as low as 1.4069 and 1.4000 is within sight. I will be watching it as it goes to 1.4000 as I want to see if I can buy it at a bargain (less than 1.4000) and also I want to buy as it is moving back upwards.
Edit 9.10am NY time Market at 1.4171 Trichet is talking up the Euro ....but it won't last. We will see 1.4000 today
Edit 11.50am NY time Market at 1.4187 This 1.4000 mark is like the young lady I tried to date many, many years ago when I was in my late teens. She was very elusive and hard to get hold of ...
Emails
Email 1
From Aug 2005 to Jul 2008, EUR/USD was on a clear uptrend, and any down moves during this period were treated as retracements that provided great opportunities to buy EUR/USD 'on the cheap' in anticipation of its continued upward move after the retracements were over. However, after July 2008, EUR/USD price has new characteristics:
(a) It has become much more volatile (daily range became very much higher). Yes...volatility increased some 400%
(b) More importantly, it has become difficult for traders to determine a true long term trend. Trends seemed to change every few weeks. Yes
Just after traders waited patiently to 'confirm' that a downtrend was in place, it suddenly changed to uptrend in subsequent weeks. yes
Then when traders thought that 'EUR/USD uptrend is here again', it changed to downtrend. So how do we avoid falling into the situation of "Ok, uptrend is here, we should go long", only to see all our Buy positions killed by downtrend. Move to shorter time frames or stay with the longer times frame but increase the size of the SL....We took the option of moving from using the Daily charts to using the 4H charts and becoming much more selective in our trades
And when we start to Sell (because we think downtrend is here), we see our Sell positions killed by an uptrend again? The volatility has made it more difficult, but traders need to learn to adapt to the changed circumstances. Also, the volatility was never going to remain at those extreme levels, so it was a matter of also waiting it out. And if you were going to trade, you had to be very, very selective. We hunkered down and became very selective and were still able to pump out reasonably high profits. At the time, our brokers were advising us that the mortality rate of traders was extremely high, even with their clients who had been with them for years.
The DailyFX.com writers were even advising all clients on their website to significantly reduce their risk rate (because their broking division was getting sick of mopping up the blood of traders).
Or has market evolved so drastically since July 2008 that it is now impossible to avoid such situations? Certainly not...we are traders..we just need to be pragmatic and adapt to the market situation. I am looking forward to the market settling right back down so we can all turn up our levels of more risk trades...but my first rule is: Do NOT lose money. The second rule is: Patience. This market will still be around long after you and I are gone from this earth. The wonderful aspect of capitalism is that it is self correcting and the volatility will be gone much, much, earlier than you think
Having said all that, this is still the best business on the planet. Be very selective in your trades and don't take unnecessary and silly risks and you will still pump out excellent returns. Certainly better than any other investment that I know.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 374
It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 3 and the market is at 1.4313
The bull has continued to move up marginally in Asian session. As stated yesterday evening, with the wonderful advantage of hindsight, it looks as though I have held too strongly to the belief that it would drop back to the 1.4000 (which was a solid 50% Fib on a strong time frame and is a big round number and is a short term 4H trend line) and waiting to buy at that level.
It is time to admit that I may be wwwwrong and look at the situation again.
Using the 4H charts with 300 periods, we are able to see the:
Support line If we take the short term view from 1.3422 (May 17) and touching 1.3792 (May 28) it is currently at 1.4000.
Even if we take the very shorte time view and use the Support line from just 1.3792 (May 28) and touching 1.4101 (June 2) we still have a Support line only as high as 1.4200.
Resistance line. However, because the market has moved up so quickly, we have no reference on the 4H charts for a Resistance line. To find that we need to move out to the Daily time frame.
If we connnect up the highs from 1.4866 (Sept 21 2008) and 1,4718 (Dec 17, 2008) we can see that the resistance line stands at around 1.4500 today.
However, the potential for getting hit by a significant retracement very soon is getting higher and higher. Although I am missing some of the potential upside now, I am prepared to wait until I get a satisfactory retracement.
Edit 12.10pm NY time Market at 1.4194. The market has come back to as low as 1.4151 and I am still prepared to wait for 1.4000 before I buy.
Emails
Email 1
the username and password you give for accessing the managed fund blog are JacksonFortress etc which is wrong: for some reason google/blogger passwords/usernames are case-sensitive, meaning it should be all lower case letters. You may want to make the correction. Ok Thanks for that....I am a techno moron... I will fix it
Email 2
How do you determine that the volitality have subsided? There is a thing on your charts called the ATR or Average Trading Range. If you set that to Daily and then to 1, it will show you the ATR of each day. You will then see the huge increase (400%) in volatility late last year. Alternatively, a simpler method is to simply look at a daily chart over 300 days and see the huge daily bars starting in Aug last year
Email 3
I am also very curious how long do you spend on the charts before making a decision 15 minutes and what affects you when you are making a decision like a big bullish candle? I don't use candles...I use simple bar charts . What i do is each day I pull up my 300 period 4H chart. I place one Support Line and one Resistance line and the 50% fib on the latest 4H high and low. The S&R lines show me the possible range for the day and the 50% fib gives me the target that it will try to hit. That is all I need to make my trade decisions
Email 4I have been observing price actions when prices approach trendlines. Of course, prices can behave in only two ways: (1) Break the trendlines (resulting in breakout); or (2) 'Respect' the trendlines by moving back to where it comes from. yes
I face difficulty in deciding whether price will breakout or move back when it touches/approaches the trendlines. Naturally, I can 'see and tell' the outcome on hindsight. But 'hindsight' cannot help me make money in trading :). I like to watch how the price approaches the trendline....(.Lets assume an UP bounce situation ) ..Most times (approx 75%) it will bounce up off the line..... but if each time it bounces up off it, the rise is not as high as the previous bounce, then you can be reasonably certain that it will break the line after approximately 2-4 bounces. The question is how to trade this: When the size of the bounce up is less than 50 pips, place a sell close to the trend line but with a 100 pip SL
Contrary to standard practice, I also prefer to place my sell ABOVE the trend line to ensure that I get all my trades in place rather than just underneath where most traders place their trades (and often miss being filled because the price runs too fast past their order for them to get filled...)
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 373
It is 1.10am NY time Tuesday June 2 and the market is at 1.4161
As stated yesterday, these levels (especially over 1.4200) are too high for me to enter on the buy side. I am still waiting for a retracement to the 1.4000 area.
Those adventurous traders who yesterday morning went on the short side with the aim of my target of 1.4000 are still doing well. (See the Edit 8.35am Yesterday) They are mostly all in above 1.4200 mark.
(Note As this is not a trade that I entered because it is not with the bull trend, no SMSes were sent.......I only send SMSes regarding MY trades)
Edit 3.50am NY time The Euro is slowly edging itself down to my target area of 1.4000. London has taken it down to 1.4101 and I think we will see my target hopefully hit later today.
Edit 8.15 am NY time The market at 1.4238 The Euro has jumped up on Russian President Madvedev talking about a new international exchange currency with Brazil , Russia, India and China (BRIC). However, it is nothing new and has been raised before. The more adventurous now have another opportunity to ride it down to 1.4000.
Edit 12.10pm NY time The market is at 1.4280. It looks like the bull still has more life left in it yet. I am still waiting for it to take a rest and drop back so I can buy in the dip. The current level is too expensive for me to buy in at these levels. Even though the market is still moving up, the downside risk of retracement is too high at these levels.
Edit 7.25pm NY time The market is at 1.4300 .The bull continued to move up in afternoon trade. With the wonderful advantage of hindsight, it looks as though I have held too strongly to the belief that it would drop back to the 1.4000 (which was a solid 50% Fib on a strong time frame and is a big round number and 4H is the trend line). It is time to admit that I may be wwwwrong and look at the situation again.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 372
It is 1.45am NY time Monday June 1 and the market is at 1.4130
Today is the start of a new day, the start of a new week and the start of a new month.
It is also the start of a new era. It is expected that GM will today be put into bankruptcy. It will be withdrawn from the DJIA. It is a sad day in American history to see one of the giants of the American success story of the last 100 years being felled and on its knees before collapsing completely. As Americans we should all be ashamed that we have allowed this to happen. We have allowed successive Administrations divert the wealth and success of the USA into futile Trillion dollar wars and other follies.
The Euro has moved up to as high as 1.4167 (at 12.30pm May 29) from a low of 1.3792 (at 12.30am May 28). Looking at that, it is very reasonable to assume that the market will attempt a retracement to the 50% mark of 1.3982 (rounded to 1.4000). At that point, I would expect the bull market to resume its upward march.
Edit 3.15am NY time The market is at 1.4200. The market has moved up quickly in London trading. These levels are too rich for me. I will be waiting for a retracement to get in. The risk at entering at these levels is too high for me. However, as always, you have the right to make a trading decision different to mine.
Edit 7.10am NY time The market went to 1.4245 in very thin Euro trading (the Swiss, German and French banks are closed all day). The US market has theISM Manufacturing numbers out at 10.00am but they are not usually real market movers. The announcement of a formal GM bankruptcy may have an effect. I would not be surprised to see the market fall back on the long awaited announcement
Edit 8.35am NY time The market is at 1.4213. The Euro has moved up to as high as 1.4245 (at 6.00am June 1) from a low of 1.3792 (at 12.30am May 28). Looking at that, it is very reasonable to assume that the market will attempt a retracement to the 50% mark of 1.4018 (rounded to 1.4000) soon . At that point, I would expect the bull market to resume its upward march. But the adventurous traders may want to look at 1.4000 as a target
Edit 12.30pm NY time Market has been as low as 1.4147 but has bounced up again to 1.4200. But this market is looking heavy and it should go lower in the short term. The 1.4000 area is still a target
A Special Post
This is a special post. I have been annoyed by a post on Forex Factory (by a non-member called fxterrapin and pipspimp) making wild allegations and inferring that my trading is in the red. Now I do NOT intend to post my results on Forex Factory as they include my personal trades and I don't want my personal income details posted on a Forum. (it is no great stretch to multiply the pips times the number of standard contracts that I trade times USD$10 per pip).
Some of you are new here and dont have a full history of my trades as I traded them because you were not members at the time. The purpose of this post is to bring you up to speed with my trading results prior to you joining.
As some of you you may know, I started a Managed Fund (Jackson Fortress Asset Management Limited) on August 8, 2008 to trade on behalf of Mark's investors.
That Fund trades exactly the same trades as my personal trades. And those trades are the same as I post here for both the first and second groups.
The Fund has its own blog for the investors which is simply a summary of all my trades (they are not interested in the discussions regarding trading...they just want to see the results in live time). It allows transparency in all my trades and can be checked against each of the entries in this blog.
The address and performance of the Jackson Fortress Fund blog can be seen here:
http://www.jacksonfortressmembers.blogspot.com/
User ID......... jacksonfortressaccess
Password.......jacksonfortress
This is a copy of the latest summary report for the investors from that blog
Summary of Performance for Investors (as at the end of April 2009)
Hi All,
The Fund earned 567 pips over the last Quarter ((Feb -April ) with the majority in April.This is a return of 46.6% annualized for the quarter.
Since the date of the inception of the Fund on 8/08/2008, and the commencement of trading on 8/28/2008, we have accumulated 1421 pips over 245 days. Using the calculations below (see Message ...January 13) , we can see that this is equal to a 42.44% annualized return.
In a time where Funds and investors around the world have pounded to dust and bankruptcy, we (as shown through our Managed Fund) are trading at better than 42%+ return for the year to date.
While this is much, much lower than the returns I have earned over 2006 and 2007, our 42%+ return to date in the 2008/2009 year is much better than the average investment (where the Dow has lost 50%, property has lost approximately 30% and private businesses have become virtually unsaleable). Even Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stocks were down 47% at one time.
In a time where hedge Funds have been blown up every day and huge investment banks (Lehmans, Merril Lynch etc) have disappeared and the worlds biggest banks are technically bankrupt.....I am reasonably happy with my "safe" 40+ % annualised return
As I said in late March, I can feel the market coming back to a semblance of stability compared to the unwelcome extremes of volatility we have had in the last months of last year and the first 3 months of 2009. I am keen to make up for that lost time, where I had slowed my trading down and hunkered down to weather the storm.
We have still been achieving very good results to date. But now that the volatility is settling down, it is time to ramp up our trading and go for the super-normal profits. All of our past and current returns have been made using only 2% risk on any trade. If we wanted to increase our return we could marginally increase our risk to 3-4% per trade. However, I don't feel a necessity to do that at the present time and am content to stay with 2% per trade.
The last month (April) was a better month. I expect that it is a better indicator of future trading.
I would like to advise that you trade with the best Forex broker: AvaTrade.
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