MESSAGES FROM JACKO (JUNE 2008) 124 - 138

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 138

It is 5.50am NY time Monday June 30 and the market is at 1.5812

This will be a week with reduced liquidity and increased volatility as the week progresses. The Independence
Day holiday (July 4th) period is upon us. I am still waiting for a reasonable sized retracement.

Edit 8.37am NY time Market has started a small retracement. After peaking at 1.5835 it is now at 1.5760 on
news that UAE Central Bank says believes the USD will get stronger and also Chinese PM Wen calling on the US
to take action to stabilize the USD.

This week should see more retracement of the Euro.

Edit 11.00 am NY time. I am looking at a retracement in the next day or two back to 1.5650. I could be
tempted to be a buyer there.

Edit 9.30pm NY Time Market has weakened marginally to 1.5730. We are on track back to 1.5650

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 137

It is 2.10am NY time Friday June 27 and the market is at 1.5734

After the rapid upthrust, the market has stabilised in the short term. I am still waiting for a reasonable sized
retracement, maybe early next week.

Edit 6.40am NY time Market is hanging around the 1.5750 mark. This is usually the point where most new
traders feel that the market is "getting away from them" and they start to become desperate to get into the
market and so they "chase" the market. They end up as road kill when the market runs over the top of them.
PLUS it is a Friday...the worst trading day of the week

Edit 11.10am NY time Market is still hanging around the 1.5750 mark..

NEW I will be starting new little "segment" on the blog each weekend, where I review the market for the
previous week and how we could have traded the trades better. In other words, a full and shameless review of
when and how I could have traded better.

For example, this week I could have improved my trading by:

1. Retaining a 100 pip stop on my first trade (the one where I made 71 pips). If I had retained a 100 pip TSL
instead of reverting to the 50 pip TSL, I would still be in the trade.
2. Alternatively, after closing out the first trade for 71 pips profit, I should have taken a second trade at 1.5550
instead of trying to skin the market too hard at 1.5500. (I had seriously considered 1.5550 but decided I would
rather play safe at 1.5500). I would still be in the market.
These are not meant to be woulda coulda shouldas..they are just to review and document ways that I could
have improved my trades this week.
It is often said in sports that the margin of winning is often the little things...in trading it is the same.

Emails

Emails 1

Today I saw in the blog that you will make a point every weekend where you write, what could be better done.

I think it was all ok this week, ok I also was thinking about setting my buy limit at 1.5550 instead of 1.5500 but
made the decision to set the order at 1.5500 because how you already said it is a securer entry than 1.5550,
and I know that some newbees will lament if they are stopped out. So it was the best decision. Further I think
everybody has to decide for himself which risk he or she will trade. Yes, of course For me it was the right
decision because I want to trade a little bigger so I have to look for the low risk entry's. But the most
important point is that we lost no money!!!! yes !!!

I think that it is enough when you do what you did, maybe you could write that 1.5500 is a good entry point, but
1.5550 could also be very good but with a little more risk. Good point...I might try that I think even that is not
necessary because every trader should use his own brain to decide which risk he or she will take. I would think
so

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 136

It is 2.00am NY time Thursday June 26 and the market is at 1.5681

As stated in yesterday's last update, the market spiked down to 1.5540 which was not as far down as I was
hoping for. I was hoping for 1.5500. I was trying to buy at a bargain but I was being too "cheap" (as Mrs Jacko
says).
Also, as expected, the market had an explosive up thrust when the market didn't get the interest rate rise.
A missed opportunity ! (Serious apologies to everyone). The only redeeming factor is that a lost opportunity is
better than having bought at 1.5550 and having the market explosively fall to 1.5450 and cop a very real and
painful 100 pip loss.

I will now wait for the market to digest this market movement before retracing slightly back to around the
1.5550-1.5600 mark some time next week.

This market is now showing stronger signs each week that the USD will continue to weaken in the medium term. That is, the longer term UP trend is getting stronger.

Edit 10.15 am NY time Market is moving up but is becoming erratic. I am not prepared to "chase" the market
and will wait for a decent sized correction.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 135

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday June 25 and the market is at 1.5571

As stated last night, I was stopped out at 1.5571 for a profit of 71 pips. I am now looking to get back into the
market on a small dip. While I am still favoring the UP side, we might see some volatility from the FOMC that
might allow us to pick up a "bargain".

I am a buyer at 1.5500 (again)

Edit 2.18 am NY time. I have a 100 pip stop on the above order but would be looking to pull it back to 50 pips
quite quickly as it (hopefully) goes into profit

Edit 10.30 am NY time The market has stabbed down to as low 1.5535 earlier today so I have not been able to
snare my 1.5500 bargain....yet. The market is getting volatile as the FOMC statement approaches. Market is at
1.5599 and looking weak. I am feeling confident

Edit 10.50am NY time Ouch... the market dived like a duck that had been shot. The market is pricing in an
interest rate rise. There will be an explosive up thrust if they don't get it


Edit 11.20am NY time Market has risen marginally to 1.5570 but is looking weak again. This market is trying to
get back to the congestion area of 1.5500 (see email below)

Edit 9.30pm NY time Market spiked down to 1.5540 which was not as far down as I was hoping for. I was hoping for 1.5500 (Not good enough Jacko !!). I was trying to buy at a bargain but I was being too "cheap" (as Mrs Jacko says). A missed opportunity !

Emails

Email 1

I suppose Bernanke will posture the "strength" of the dollar in today's FOMC statement....and voila...a retrace to
1.5500 land. LOL....Exactly how I see it too
Is this how you see price retracing to that level again soon...perhaps even today? Yes, the FOMC Statement
(hopefully) will do it.

Email 2

Hi Jacko, in your most recent blog update you stated that the market was looking weak. and shortly after, price
has fallen by 30 odd pips. How did you know it was looking weak? What things influenced you? The market had
tracked up then was dropping...I think the market is trying to go back to the congestion area of 1.5500 Does
the price normally drift lower (ie, $ strengthen) when the market is waiting for volatile news to be released? It
tends to go one direction, then back in the other direction and settles at a S+R point (or congestion area) just
as the news is to be released.

Email 3

I, like you, am not interested in staying in front of computer. So, my thoughts on adjusting TSL were do a four-
hour check and make adjustments accordingly unless some specific hot event was occurring. Does this make
sense. Yes. Also, I would use 100 or 50-pip TSL but would like to know key factors you suggest to determine
which one to use. Mostly the 50 pip TSL. But volatility had been increasing up to early May so we moved to a
100 pip TSL.. The volatility is starting to subside so I am cautiously moving back to a 50 pip TSL

Email 4

For your next pending order at 1.5500 are you starting out with a TSL of 50 pips or 100?

Oh...Thank you ..I just realised that I hadn't put that in the blog...It is 100 pips

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 134

It is 2.00am NY time Tuesday June 24 and the market is at 1.5521

Important: See 3.35am Update below

After basically flatlining since NY lunchtime, I am hoping to see a nice little kick along in late Asian / early
European trade.

I am sitting comfortably with my buys at 1.5500 and now just letting the trade play itself out. My TSL is
currently at 1.5437 (which is 100 pips below the highest point...1.5537.. since my buy).

Am heading out for a leisurely post lunch coffee at my favourite coffee shop...

Edit 3.35am NY time. Market has moved to a high of 1.5578. Since May we have moved the TSL to 100 pips to
allow for the excessive volitility.

However I am going to adjust my TSL back to a 50 pip TSL now to lock in some profits should this market
try to have another run back toward 1.5500.

I repeat, I am adjusting the TSL back to a 50 pip TSL for the present trade.

The new TSL is at 1.5528 locking in a minimum 28 pips.


Edit 9.35am NY time. Market has moved to a new high of 1.5581. Therefore TSL adjusted to 1.5531

Edit 10.35am NY time. Market is being very nice to us. Market has moved to another high of 1.5621. Therefore
TSL adjusted again to 1.5571 (1.5621 -50 = 1.5571).

I love this business...

Edit 9.15pm NY time I was stopped out at 1.5571 some six hours ago (while I was asleep and happily dreaming of my gains) for a profit of 71 pips. I am now looking to get back into the market on a small dip. I am a buyer at 1.5500 (again)

Emails

Email 1

Man, I have a question related with the reasons for you to use 4 brokers, I don't want you to tell me wich ones,
but the reasons that push you to take that option to use 4 brokers? I will appreciate your thoughts about this.

1. In case one broker gets into financial "trouble"
2. I trade 200 standard lots...sometimes it is better to run them through 4 brokers to simultaneously to ensure
that they get filled. (If I had an order for 200 and the broker gets say 150 filled then the market takes off
quickly, then they could say that the order wasn't filled at all and they keep the 150 contracts)
3. It keeps the brokers honest and keen for more business when they know I am dealing with other brokers

Email 2

I was hoping to get your advice on how to approach trading as a career/business. I'm a couple years out of
college, 24, no debt, no liabilities, a decent job for now, no female maintanence :) LOL...I can send Mrs Jacko
over for a week or so to resolve that issue..she will show you how to maintain a woman with VERY expensive
tastes,

........
I'm wondering how to best approach trading as a career....I have also been compiling a trading record in the
hopes of getting a jr. trading job at a bank or a hedge fund, but I'm not sure how to go about that. Do I just
walk in with a resume and a 12 month trading record?

I would just walk in and tell the people that you want to be a trader....someone once said to me that the best
way to get something you want is to just show up. Be fairly thicked skinned and just keep saying that you would
like to talk to the Head Trader....and don't take NO for an answer....Be flexible, you will come back if
necessary, but YOU DO WANT TO MEET WITH HIM. Persistance is an incredibly successful strategy. Show him
that you are persistant and committed to a career in trading

I also thought of trading for other people...there are several people who have been wanting me to trade their
money for them but I've turned them down because I don't feel ready yet. A very quick way to lose your best
friends...be very careful. Also be very careful that if you lose money, they may own a gun...LOL

Email 3

Jacko, have you ever considered looking at the COT report (Commitment of Traders) to see what is the
positioning of the big traders on the market in order to get an idea about the direction of Eur/ Usd for the
coming week? Yes, but it is historical data...they have already taken the positions before it hits the COT report

Email 4

few minutes ago I was looking at the ATR indicator setted up for 100 bars and it shows a volatility of about 55.
Falling from more than 120 in early May.Does this have anything related with your decision (to reduce TSL to 50 pips)? Yes, plus I don't want to give back too much to the market


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 133

It is 1.35am NY time Monday June 23 and the market is at 1.5602

As outlined in the last message the market has broken out away from the 1.5500 mark and risen to as high as
1.5651, confirming that the UP trend is back in play. I am now waiting for the market to retrace back to the
support level of the low 1.5500's before taking a solid sized position.

I am a buyer at 1.5500.

Edit 5.02am NY time Monday WHOA !!...Went out for an afternoon coffee thinking that I had 24-36 hours
before it would hit 1.5500. I was expecting to SMS everyone at around 9.00am NY time Monday(the most
civilised time to message people in Europe Asia and US at the same time.). Came back to see market has hit my
buys. My TSL is set at 100 pips


Edit 5.15 am NY time Market has risen to 1.5526 since my buys were triggered so TSL has now been adjusted
to 1.5426 (1.5526-100 = 1.5426).
I also think that there may be another opportunity to get set at 1.5500 within the next 4 hours.


Edit 12.15 pm NY time As expected the market hit 1.5500 again (4 hours and 15 minutes later... I was out by
15 minutes...) My TSL was previously adjusted to 1.5437 which is 100 pips below the highest point of 1.5537
since I bought at 1.5500.
Market has fallen to a low of 1.5467 (30 pips above my TSL) and is now back on the rise. Market is back at
1.5500


Emails

Email 1

It is easy to see a trend if it is already formed. As you said, we can ask a five year old boy to help us out.
However, when the market starts to change its direction, how do we know it is a temporary correction or it is a
real trend reversal? A trend is MUCH stronger than most people believe (new traders tend to have a hugely
erroneous view that the market will change direction much more often than it actually does)
Can you draw the conclusion by reading the chart (without fundamental analysis)? Yes and no....the two tend to
work together to give you the answer

I really appreciate if you can share more your trading experience in 2005, how did you determine the trend was
reversed? The US Administration was doing things that I thought were very bad for the country and I couldn't see how we could afford to do them without an impact on our currency....then I watched the market come to the
same realisation..And then they just kept doing even worse things. Was it because you felt the volatility of
market? Was it because you lost several (short) trades in a row? Close...I didn't make any major losses but it
was getting harder to make profitable trades Was it because you have some inside information from the banks?
LOL...No...their economists have their heads up their ass !!! (You should hear Mark's opinion of Economists
working at banks and trading houses....it is unprintable !!) Or it was something else?

I believe EUR/USD is still uptrend.Yes However, the GBP/USD looks like reversing, same as USD/JPY. I tend to disagree...The USD is the sickest economy out there and will be for some more years yet Can you give me an example how do you determine a trend is about to change (or not yet reversing)? (only by fundamental analysis?
). Yes. I will be looking for:

1. A change in Administration will be a start (By the way, I am apolitical...I think ALL politicians are bums !!).
2. Assuming Obama wins, he is too inexperienced to turn against all the powerful lobby groups...he will be
relatively ineffective as a President though he will probably get us out of Iraq. (Getting out of the financial sink
hole of Iraq will be a VERY good thing for the USD).
3. New capital reserves legislation imposed on investment banks to limit their leverage.
When I see some evidence of 1, 2 and/or 3, I will then be watching for the confirmation on the charts.

Email 2

I have a question that's not related to the mechanics of trading but the psychology.... WhenI started trading
using your style I started becoming successful. Good Then I had a few losses. This wasn't a problem as the anti-
hedging got me out. Yes, it does
However I started getting bored and felt the NEED to be in the market. WRONG !! I made a few trades that
were not very successful and my account took a few blows. At that point I realised that I better get back to
your method and start to make money again. What I discovered is that I am now getting too scared to pull the
trigger Reduce the size of your trades by 50% until you get back in the swing of it again...The irritating thing is
that I see trades that become profitable. Before I would have taken them -now I don't...then I play the
coulda, woulda, shoulda game which frustrates me more -which makes me want to get in the market. Ok, make
a decision to not look at the market for 48 hours...then come back with a clean start...(remember the market
will still be there long after you and I have been to the Pearly gates, so no need to panic that you are "missing
out")...Then start with a clear head

What I am really wrestling with is the paradox of growing my account quickly so that I can trade less but with
larger lots -it reminds me of a friend who is successful in business. (Warren Buffett???...He trades about 5 times per year...) ...

PS. Did you ever write down a trading plan as some people suggest -or was it all in your head? It is all in my
head but I have been in business so long that it is all second nature

Email 3

Here is my student analysis for coming week:
1) We are on the road for a retracement to the 1,5470 strong support area (H4), which sould hold Yes,
2) In order not to miss the following upwards move my optimal entry point would be 1,5520 but I'm ready if it's
not hit, after a reversal to enter at 1,5550 cause I consider 1,5450 (100 SL) would need a new analysis,
invalidating my current scenario. Yes
3) Without looking for TP I'm expecting a target up to 1,5800 where we have a strong daily resistance area, so it means we could have a 250/280 profit target, which means I'm prepared to add to my first position at 1,5675
Ok, I am looking at 1.5700 for additional trade, but yours is near enough
4) A new step would be with 1,5825 where a new analysis should be undertaken....nice scenario....(:--)) Exactly
5) 1,5450 would clearly confirm I was wrong and so prepared to a new analysis but maybe with a bit less
confidence.... Hmmm, I would give it a little bit more, but the TSL is in charge of the exit

Email 4

I have dreams of managing a fund someday. Do you think that it is necessary to trade at a bank for a while to
gain "bank experience" in order to become a fund manager? Yes...!!! Curiously, Mark has been talking to me
about exactly the same thing since I returned from holidays. He is thinking about opening his own fund. He
wants to recruit from the best of the two groups. I have zero interest in it myself but he is keen.


Email 5

I just felt the Fed's last attempt at a strong dollar policy was a joke. Jawboning might help for a very short
period of time, but their not going to be in any rush to battle inflation with this sick economy. Its really
frustrating what's happened to the US economy. Yes !!! My properties in the US have gone to sh*t in world
currency terms. Luckily, the HK dollar is basically pegged to USD

I agree with you on on the continuing with the trend, but was surprised at your call for 2.00 (by the way I really
enjoyed your post as to the direction of the US$). I would think that at some point before that, Intervention
would occur. They don't have any tools to do anything any more. There are no Reserves that they can call on,
they can't jack up interest rates ...all they can do is talk !!! But thinking about it a little deeper from the FED's
perspective, a much weaker dollar will drive exports further, and that's about the only positive that could
potentially occur going forward. yes Of course the flip side to that is America will be owned by the world
shortly. yes Plus the FED is now utterly useless. yes....LOL Do you see us revisiting what happened in the early
80's with hyper inflation, and astronomical rates? Yes, I was only young but I remember the devastation that
stagflation had on older people who either had fixed incomes or had most of their assets in cash...they were
stripped of buying power by inflation. It was awful what happened That was caused by the FED running the
printing presses in the early 70's, along with the failed price controls. As far as we know today, those lessons
don't seem to have permeated Helicopters thick scull, as the presses are running in overdrive. When you step
back and look at what's going on, its as simple as Wall Street running the FED. yes!!! Every CNBC business
reporter was screaming for rate cuts to drive the markets, and the FED just appeased them. Its time to take our
medicine and straighten this mess up. Bush is stalling for time and pass the dying baby to someone else Nobody wants to sacrifice to fix the mess. The issue is that if they don't fix it now, it will get much, much worse !!!

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 132

It is 9.30am NY time Friday June 20 and the market is at 1.5595

Well, in the first week back from my vacation, the market has been relatively quiet with an average daily range
of only 50 pips per day over the week.

In hindsight, the best trade opportunity for the week was a buy at the 1.5350 mark at 2.00am on Monday June

16. Some of you were astute enough to get into the trade, whereas I was still trying to re-acquaint myself with
the market after returning from our vacation.
As you know I don't like to open positions on a Friday but I am keen to get back into a long position soon.
The market is starting to show that the UP trend is still in place, and starting to get a foothold, so it is a matter
of getting set at a good price level. There has been a multitude of opportunities to get a buy at 1.5500 but the
market has not shown sufficient strength for me to be interested. As I have said previously, since it was sitting
squarely in the middle of 1.5300 and 1.5800, it was only slightly better than 50/50 chance of getting the
direction correct.
The rise today has changed that. So I will be looking to buy early next week in the 1.5500's in preparation for
further upward moves next week.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 131

It is 9.45am NY time Thursday June 19 and the market is at 1.5487

The market is back exactly where it was yesterday..... LOL

The email below is a longer term view...(while I wait for the price to come back to my buy area)

Emails

Email 1 

Currently, the EURUSD is hovering around 1.5480 to 1.5490. In the blog, you stated that you buy at round
numbers:

1. after dips of 50 to 100 pips;
2. around 50% fib; or
3. at support level.
You stated in the blog that you are looking to buy at 1.5350. Why did you not choose option 1 and 2? I measured
the 50% fib from 1.5302 (13 Jun's low) to 1.5586 (19 Jun's high) which is about 1.5450.
What is your thought on 1.5450? I think the probability of a "win" at 1.5450 is around 50/50. whereas I consider
that the probability of a win from a lower level is around 80-85%. I am in no rush to trade marginal trades...I
prefer more certainty and hit the market hard

Email 2

I was wondering what is your big picture approach? I ask this for various reasons.When you started posting on
you FF thread, you said that you can see eur over 1.4500 in the long term, plus you see the trend pattern to
the upside (left bottom to right top on the screen) your reasons to say that I imagine were the deceleration on
the US economy, the costs of the Irak's war, the bad data comming from US releases and so on.
Now, given the current circumstances, US economic data NOT showing a recesion, in the meaning that we need two or more indicators saying that. Eurozone data showing some bad data primary German data wich is the biggest economy over the zone, same happening on England. Do you still se E/U above 1.6000?
I appreciate your thoughts about this, I know this is a subjective issue, but I think you are the one who I would
ask in the first term due to your experience and skills over many years. Or where do you see the pair in the mid
to long term?Thanks for share your insight with us.

I apologise for not replying to yesterdays email more quickly but it had got me thinking as to where I think the
market is going. I wanted to actually think about the answer for a day or two before responding because it is
really an important issue.

Having said that, I will give you my initial thoughts (which usually are the best indication...too much thinking
about things can sometimes result in just a serious case of confusion).

I agree with your first two paragraphs as to the macroeconomic scenarios. The issues I would add to that which
I think has an enormous impact is that there has been a seismic change in the relationships between US banks
and their major customers which they stuffed with bad mortgages by the Billions. Those poisoned relationships
will take a lot of healing. However, overshadowing even that, the biggest elephant in the China shop is the

ongoing debasement of the USD by the government

Ok...how does those issues impact on where I think the EUR/USD is heading ??...I still think that we will see
above 1.6000 again in the near future.

The US economy is in serious trouble, and the political will to correct those problems is not anywhere in
evidence.

Despite all the rhetoric from the US administration, they have worked out that the easiest political solution to
many of the US economic problems is to simply allow the USD to fall and spread the pain over as many people
as possible.

The Government have decided some time ago to debase the US dollar to finance the yawning deficits. Mr
Bernanke even said in his infamous speech back in 2002 (I think) that if he was in charge of the Fed and saw a
recession looming he would "throw dollars from a helicopter" to get the markets stimulated. Hence his monicker
of "Helicopter Ben".
Well he has found a better solution... The printing presses are running flat out printing dollars by the
BIllions...That's why they now no longer publish the M3 money supply figures. ...If they did, the game would be
up.
The U.S. has had difficulty attracting enough foreign investment to finance the Deficit (caused by, among other
things, the huge and irresponsible spending by the US government on Trillion dollar wars, etc) in the past 6
years.
So, the governement has two options: they could either raise interest rates aggressively to attract foreign
investment, which would bring the economy to a screaming halt....or actively but surrepticiously, allow a
debasement of the currency, which would allow the foreigners to buy U.S. assets at a huge discount and get US
exporters to start making money to reduce the deficit.
This debasement has been going on for 6 years now... It started slowly, gained momentum in 2004 (as the
government got hooked on this new "drug"), only to see a dollar rally (because of minor, weak steps to slow the
decline) in 2005, then the debasement accelerated again in 2006, 2007, and the first half of 2008 (as the
Government got really "addicted").

Again, I repeat, the political will to correct those problems is not anywhere in evidence. Having said that, I also
believe that there will be corrections along the way.
However, I may be amazed and see a Democrat President put serious, hard-line financial measures in
place...but I doubt it !!! ... Presidents have a tendency to want to be re-elected !!
I see, in the long term, as high as 2.0000 within the next two years. But I think that level will be a major wake
up call to the US authorities. At that stage, I would also think that the Government will have withdrawn from
any financially debilitating wars.

Having said all that....I could be wwwrong!!

Email 3

do you ever consider staggering your entries? For example you said you would like to get in around 1.5350.
Would you consider starting w/ 50% of your normal entry a 5350 and then have another pending order at 5300?
Of course there isn't a guarantee that it will get that low, but I am interested in your thoughts. In my earlier
days of trading futures I tried that strategy but I used to get miffed that I had picked a good entry and I only
had a small percentage of the investment on the trade.
Also, I believe in the adage that you should never add to losing trades.

P.S. -You mentioned that 3 of your turtles started trading for banks... any word on how they are doing? Yes
they are going well...they say that they had a good trainer who taught them patience and to be "strategic"
traders rather than just "wild gamblers" ... But they could just be full of sh*t and being nice to me....LOL...
(Interestingly, the glamour of trading with other people's money is starting to wear off with all of them...one is
saying that he is enjoying the experience but is only interested in learning everything from the bank as quick as
he can so that he can go out on his own again...maybe as a fund manager)

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 130

It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday June 18 and the market is at 1.5489

The market is stubbornly hanging around the 1.5500 mark. I still have high hopes that it will slowly migrate
down to the resistance level of 1.5300, (and picking my buys up at 1.5350, before moving back up to resume
the trend.

To each of you that picked up my error in my last message about the buy price being 1.4350, you now know
that I am short -sighted and keenly waiting on my new set of bifocal spectacles to replace the pair I broke in
Australia. (The good news is that Mrs Jacko says that she thinks that spectacles make me look more
intelligent...LOL)

Edit 9.55am NY time The lack of any news is keeping the market very flat. Market at 1.5488...remember, the
market punishes impatient traders

Edit 12.15pm NY time . The market rarely is this quiet for this long. A major move is approaching...

Edit 4.15pm NY time . I am more excited by watching the grass growing at the moment. I am thinking of
throwing some paint onthe wall and watching it dry. Market is at 1.5532

Edit 8.20pm NY time. Market has just had a quick spurt of 20 pips in early Asian trade. The market is veerry
slow. The market is building to a big move


Emails

Email 1

Hello Jacko,Do you really mean you will buy only at 1.4350? It is a long way until there... and why not at
1.4950/1.5000 for example, a very round number which in my opinion is very likely to become a strong support.
No I meant 1.5350. I am waiting on my new set of bifocal spectacles...LOL.It means that you believe the euro
will fall until there. How about the counter-trend strategy? Go back and have a read of the blog for
April...there were two interesting CT trades that I did as an experiment...and it cost me $400K .You dont use it
anymore? Not until I have a brain lobotomy to erase the pain of those two trades...
(Even though it was only 200 pips of losses which was a very small blip on my accumulated profits over the last
3 years, I had never lost that many pips that quickly on what was still basically two experimental trades. Even
though I have not totally rejected CT trades, it may be some time before I rush into another CT trade)

Email 2

as you stated in the blog, your buying orders are around 1.5350 area. Are you counting on tommorrow's
unemployment claims to push it 150 pips lower? Yes and no...I am waiting for market sentiment to push it lower
Or are you willing to wait longer yes to get those orders filled, in case the news wont have such drastic effect?
yes, the market punishes impatient traders

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 129

It is 4.30am NY time Tuesday June 17 and the market is at 1.5506

The market has shown that it is not yet ready to give up on the UP trend in the Euro just yet. The market had
moved down to striking distance of the 1.5300 support level and , despite a very good TIC Report (which should
have strengthened the USD/weakened the Euro) the market sold the USD off again. The Euro trend is still not
yet ready to change.

The result is that the Euro is back away from the 1.5300 support and is sitting squarely between the support
level of 1.5300 and the resistance level of 1.5800. Buying at the current level of mid 1.5500's is only a 50/50
chance of being correct in the choice of direction. I will wait for a better opportunity.

Edit 10.20am NY time Market is quiet due to lack of any real news events. I have decided to place an order to
buy at 1.5350. The resistance level of 1.5300 is proving quite resilient but I am also prepared to bid a little bit
higher to (hopefully) ensure that I get set in the trade.

I am a buyer at 1.5350

Edit 7.30pm NY time A very dull day on the market today with the Euro barely moving after NY lunchtime.
Maybe the Asians and Europeans will kick it along. Euro at 1.5515

Edit 11.30pm NY time Asian trade has been quiet. Euro at 1.5501

Emails

Email1

Hi Jacko--hope you are well. I have had a great trading month in May-my best yet. excellent I think I am
maturing as a trader because of how I use your thoughts on the market. As a retired military guy, I tend to use
to use your suggestionas "strategic guidance" and develop my own "tactics" accordingly. This has proven to be
very successful. Good, you are on your way... As you have repeatedly said you are not a signal service. My
ultimate goal is to start thinking like you. One more point. The blog is outstanding. Thank you In my opinion it is
the single best source of trading guidance available anywhere. You should consider compiling it into a book.
What...and go on the worlds worst selling list ???...LOL

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 128

It is 3.00am NY time Monday June 16 and the market is at 1.5360

Updates below

The holiday was great but it is good to be back in contact with the market. And the market is at a critical
junction point today. It really needs to make a decison as to whether the long term up trend is going to be
maintained or whether the trend has perhaps finally started to change.
However, as discussed in Message 123 : "If it breaks 1.5350 on the daily I will start looking at the possibility of a trend change. If it breaks 1.5283 I will start considering it even more strongly.....but I also have heard,
during the last couple of years, many people at many times in many places say that the trend was over. They
were wrong"


Todays TIC Report will be the critical issue today. Last weeks hawkish comments by Mr Bernanke have caused
the USD to perhaps rally a little too far. This week may see the reaction to those comments. However, we won't
see the longer term directional effects until after the reports today.

I will be looking to get into this market within the next 24 hours. I am considering a buy at 1.5300 but also I
don't want to be "catching a falling knife."

I will be updating this as the day progresses.

PS....It is great to be back. I will be answering the accumulated emails progressively today, so please be
patient.

Update 6.45am NY time Market has moved to 1.5465. The outcome of the TIC Report is worth waiting for,
before I take a position. (The week is reasonably clear of US data after today).

Update 9.30am NY time Have been so busy answering emails that I am missing the action. Market has hit
1.5517...now on way back down to low 1.5400's??? Am still getting my feet back under the table and "feel" the
market.

Update 7.30pm NY time Market, as usual , has done very little since NY lunchtime

Update 10.30pm NY time The Asian market has had a rush of blood to the head and sent the Eur to 1.5527.
Am kicking myself for not buying at 1.5350. (See email below)

Emails

Email 1

I bought the euro last night at 1.5350 based on the reasonings that you usedwhen you bought it at 1.5500 a
couple weeks ago. I saw heavy support at1.5300 from a long weekly trendline and the daily range floor for the
last couple weeks. So I guessed that you usually buy 50 pips above support in case it never gets there, with a 50 pip cushion...is that right? Glad thatyou're back...this is a pretty sweet trade...150 pips in the money rightnow. Good work... I am still getting back into the swing of the market...and answering emails (LOL)


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 127

Update 3.30am NY time Tuesday June 10

I am really, really, REALLY ready to get back to work on Monday June 16. It has just been too difficult to
trade while on a road trip down the east coast of Australia and I am really missing the buzz of trading,
especially in these times of excellent market conditions. However, the lack of readily available internet
access points and trading information is just too difficult. We have now stopped for three days and will be
able to watch the market but it is too risky for me to trade in these conditions.
Can hardly wait to get back.... But don't tell Mrs Jacko !!!!

Update 6.05 am NY time Friday June 6 Am suffering from trading withdrawal...sweaty palms, loss of sleep,
constantly looking for an internet "fix" (they are very, very few and far between places here)...I NEED MY
TRADING FIX.!!!!....LOL

I hope you are trading safely and well. (signed...the trading "junkie")

It is 4.00am NY time Wednesday June 4 and the market is at 1.5435

As outlined in Message 126 below, the market certainly dropped 70+ pips thanks in great measure to Ben
Bernanke turning hawkish on interest interest rates in Barcelona.

However, I have realised that it is too difficult to monitor the market here in Australia due to the travelling/sightseeing all day and there is no financial programs readily available in hotels/banks/etc here.
(If we were not travelling as intensively as we are it would be different, but we are driving all day each day).

Also, the purpose of this blog is to outline MY trades rather than being a signal service. Given that I am not
trading, I feel uncomfortable giving price points that may be good buying opportunities. However, I have
shortened the holiday and will be back on June 16. I will resume the blog and SMS text messages on June
16.
I apologise for the break in transmissions but look forward to catching up with you when I return.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 126

It is 7.30am NY time Tuesday June 3 and the market is at 1.5590

Have resolved the internet access problem. It seems that the only time I can find an internet wi-fi access point
is when we book into our accomodation each night. (I can buy an internet access card but I have to sign up for
12 months with Australian Telstra PLUS I have to buy some additional modem hardware...I really don't like
computers...LOL).

As discussed in Message 124 (below), 1.5500 is holding well as strong support. Given that my internet access
here isn't real good and that we are travelling/sight seeing all day, I personally won't be trading, but the market
looks as though there might be a dip of maybe 70+ pips soon. Possible good buying opportunity?? Take care.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 125

It is 9pm NY time Monday June 2 and the market is at 1.5534

Have arrived in Australia some 2 hours ago and this is the first internet access point that I have found......I
don't think that I personally will be trading while I am in Australia unless I find a way of getting serious wi-fi
access somehow. I am currently in a shopping centre at an internet booth and it is not easy to access financial
info anywhere. However, I will access in as much as possible...there MUST be a solution to this.

Regarding the drop at 9.10am and 10.00 am NY time this morning, it was nice but I would be carefull trading at
the present time.

Will come back with a solution to the access issue as soon as possible.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 124

It is 3.30am NY time Monday June 2 and the market is at 1.5536.

Waiting to see where the London market takes the Euro today. I am actually keen to buy around the 1.5500
mark (or lower) because I feel that the correction is a little overdone, driven by the "news" that Fed will hike
by 25bps in Sep and slightly better than expected Durable Goods, New Home Sales and Chicago PMI numbers.
This week may see a move upward especially later in the week, the Tues or Wed sessions in the US as market
re-assesses the impact of $4 per gallon.

At the moment 1.5500 is acting as reasonably resilient support.

I am booked on a flight around 9.00am NY time so may have time to update the blog at the airport. (I have to
drop my beloved cat at the Pet Hotel...then head to the airport).
Check in again just before 8.30 am NY time for update.