MESSAGES FROM JACKO (January 2009) 268 - 287

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 287

It is 1.00am NY time Friday January 30 and the market is at 1.2901

The market broke through the 4H trend line at 1.3000 and dropped has as low as 1.2875, so we didn't take the buy at 1.3000, but we also missed an opportunity to sell at the break of 1.3000 (because I was deep in the land of zzzzz's....asleep).
However, now that I am trading the 4H charts, there will be more trading opportunities due to the shorter time frames.
Edit 4.10am NY time Market at 1.2874. There is no clear direction coming out of London at the present time.
Edit 8.01am NY time The market is dropping in preparation for the US GDP Annualised figures out in 30 minutes. It will be interesting to see if we get the perverse effect again where a figure that is very bad for the USD sends the value of the USD up again. We have seen the GBP (and then Euro) drop like a rock last week when their poor GDP figures were released. Today is the US turn for GDP figures. If they are worse than expected 5.5%n then the market "should go up (Euro down). Lets see if the perverse effect caused by "flight to safety" of the USD is still in effect.
Edit 9.55am NY time Market at 1.2878. US GDP figures came in better than expected, so logically USD would strengthen (Euro would fall), but Euro rose, so therefore the only rational reason was that the market was pricing in a much worse than expected figure

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 286

It is 1.30am NY time Thursday January 29 and the market is at 1.3108

The market is sitting around the 1.3100 mark. I want to catch the next move UP on this 4H time frame. It sliced through the higher trend line at 1.3150 on the FOMC statement news reasonably quickly, so I am waiting for a bottom to form on this move, before buying.
Edit 3.15am NY time The market is sticking very closely to the descending 4H trend line, but is having difficulty breaking it....it is gradually pulling down the price, but not breaking the trendline
Edit 8.30am NY time. Market has had a minor bounce off the trend line and is now at 1.3120. Market has still not broken the descending trend line which is now at 1.3000. Looking for a nice buy around the 1.3000 mark soon
Edit 8.55am NY time Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, the USD is weakening (Euro is rising) on the bad (Durable Goods and Unemployment Claims) economic data. For some time, there has been a perverse effect where bad economic data actually caused the USD to strengthen due to "flight to safety" concerns. It looks as though that concern has started to disappear. Too early to say for sure just yet, but todays reaction to bad economic data may be worth monitoring
Edit 9.05am NY time I am suffering from a virus and a high temperature at the moment so I am taking a couple of hours off and resting. Will be back soon. Edit 8.00pm NY time Whoa...Laid down to rest for an hour....And woke up 10-11 hours later ...And fever has gone ! Market has come down to 1.3000 but the trend line did not hold and it has now pierced the 4H trend line on the downside. I am reviewing this whole market situation

Emails

Email 1
As the chart shows clearly we are in down trend why you still want to go long and buy it near 1.3100? Because of the extreme volatility, I have shortened my trading time frames. I am now looking at the shorter time frame 4H charts as my guide for trades. It has broken through the 4H trend lines from both Dec 18 and Dec 29 on the upside. It is now heading back to those support lines.

Email 2
I think the USD will further weaken as there's call for China not to buy any more treasury bills, effectively choking off demand for the dollar. China has 2 Trillion reasons (existing T-Bills) not to see the USD weaken too much in the short term. They are caught in a dilemma...they would like to be out of the USD but if they try to sell their USD securities, or cut back on their buying, the value of their existing USD assets will fall dramatically. So, it is forced to maintain its buying

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 285

It is 3.20am NY time Wednesday January 28 and the market is at 1.3277

I am now much more confident of the turn. Just looking for an opportunity to get in at a bargain.
Edit 7.00am NY time Market at 1.3270. The market has hesitantly spiked through 1.3300 twice(to 1.3329 and 1.3315) but fallen back. This market has now broken through both 4H trend lines (the weaker one from Dec 29 and the longer/stronger one from Dec 18). The Euro is now on the march...I am looking for an entry point.I was hoping to get in at the lower /weaker trend line (was at 1.3050 but now at 1.2900). However I am thinking that that may be too low.So I am now looking at the higher/stronger trend line which is sitting at 1.3150.
Edit 9.00am NY time Market has not been doing much in the last couple of hours, everyone is waiting for the FOMC Statement at 2.15pm NY time
Edit 10.00pm NY time Market is turning again on the (4H chart) into a retracement down move. I want to catch the next move UP on this time frame. It sliced through the higher trend line at 1.3150 on the FOMC statement news reasonably quickly, so I am waiting for a bottom to form on this move, before buying.

Emails

Email 1
It looks like your long call last week was correct !!!! It is so unfortunate that the timing was not quite right. If it was you would have been 300 – 400 pips ahead. Yes...but that doesn't help the Profit and Loss statement. It belongs in the "woulda, shoulda, coulda" category Anyway one or two trades doesn't make you a bad trader. In fact your three year history at this game proves how good you are at consistently getting it right ! I am sure everyone has been whipsawed. So please keep up your great analysis. Do you use other indicators apart from Fibs and trendlines? Round numbers I'm just wondering if you have any good recommendations on momentum indicators that you find useful ? Not really

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 284

It is 1.10am NY time Tuesday January 27 and the market is at 1.3213

On the basis that we are in extremely volatile times, I intend to start trading on the shorter time periods with the major focus on 4H and minor, very minor, focus on the 1H. The market is just too erratic to trade off the weekly and daily at the present time.
The market yesterday broke the 4H trend line from 1.4362 (Dec 29) and 1,3384 (Jan 19) and 1.2987 (Jan 26) at approx 1.3000 and went for a run to 1.3255.
It has now also hesitantly broken the longer term 4H trend line from 1.4718 (Dec 18) and 1.4362 (Dec 29) at approx 1.3180.
As such, I believe that the "turn" of the market that I was looking for last Friday, was a day late in arriving. However, I am now looking for a confirmation of the turn and will be looking for a return to around 1.3050 or 1.3100. At that point, I may be a buyer.
Edit 3.15am NY time Market struggling to get significantly higher at the moment (London and Europe seem unconvinced about the rise in US and Asian trade....Asia is still on Chinese New Year vacation)
Edit 9.40am NY time Market has spiked up to as high as 1.3329 then fallen back to 1.3148. I am hoping for another fall back late in the NY session
Edit 11.40am NY time Has fallen back as low as 1.3117...getting there

Emails

Email 1
your last three trades was against the trend, so EUR/USD is in downtrend? I thought it was just at the turn (I was one day out in my timing) But now you believe that your internal radar is screaming at you that it is turning soon into Bullish? yes, it broke the 4H trend line about at 8.30am NY time Jan 26. My strategy is to watch it come down back close to that trend line again and buy at 1.3000 or 1.3050. If it doesn't go that low, I will also be watching for another break of the 1.3200 mark which is the longer term 4H trend line starting at 1.4718 (Dec 18) and 1.4362 (Dec 29). So your next trading will be bearish trades or you will wait on Bullish trades (long)? Long

Email 2
Hi Jacko,I don't know what all the apoligies are about, losing trades are part of the business otherwise we wouldn't need stop losses. LOL Correct If we are down at the end of the year then I would expect that kind of post. We are 40%+ in the Managed Fund. The first day of the Managed Fund also coincided, to the day, when this real fall in the market started. (The 8/08/2008...I remember it well...it was the opening day of the Beijing Olympics). We won't be down ...I have been wrestling this bear all the way down, and I can feel him getting weaker. So in the medium term I am going to get him in a headlock and beat the crap outta him...LOL...If that doesn't work I will go home and buy a Magnum 357
I was wondering if you now view the Euro as being in a downtrend as the Weekly chart is almost telling us (if we have a new lower low then it will be clear). This is getting too hard to trade on the longer time frames...I am going to bring the time frame down to 4H for a while to shortcircuit the volatility swings Or are you still of the opinion that the sharp spike down from July to October was not to be trusted as a true down trend. No, have a look at the monthly or weekly chart...the is not a "normal" occurrence
From the weekly chart I get the sense that we may consolidate between 1.2500 and 1.4000 before we make an attempt to make a new low. I agree...but a 1500 pip range is waaay too large a range to get a grip on. So that is why I have tightened the time frames

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 283

It is 1.20am NY time Monday January 26 and the market is at 1.2907

The Asian session is very quiet due to Chinese New Year in Asia and Sydney is also closed because of Australian Day. India is also closed for their national day. To each of you who sent supportive comments about my last three trades, I thank you for your kind words. I really do appreciate the fact that most traders are mature enough to realise that this is part of trading...a painful part... but an integral part of the whole trading process. Most of the damage is to the ego.
I am looking forward to the next trade.
Edit 4.30am NY time Market is very mixed today with no real direction as yet.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market is knocking at 1.3000...LOL Why do I think I may have been one day out with my timing????
Edit 9.00am NY time Market has broken 4H trend line from 1.4362 (Dec 29) and 1,3384 (Jan 19) and 1.2987 (Jan 26) at approx 1.3000 and gone for a run to 1.3085
Edit 10.05 am NY time Market has peaked at 1.3180 and is now heading back down. I think that 1.3000 will be hard to crack again on the downside. I think the market is turning around to the upside for the medum term. Lets see if it comes back to just above the 4H trend line at 1.3000 in the next 48 hours for a confirmation.
Edit 7.00pm NY time Market has shown some resilience at the 1.3150 level

Emails

Email 1
Bad luck about your most recent trades - but as I and all newbies should realise you have only lost a small % of your trading account and you live to fight another day. MM is key in this business ! Of course...even though I had three consecutive bad trades against me...And at FULL loss on each...I still lost only 6% of my account
Does this mean you will be looking to short the e/u in the short term ? Possibly. I know that the charts are pointing down,...but my instincts are saying something else. So I am not sure just yet...IF I take another long trade it will be loaded with HUGE warnings not to follow me unless you are also strongly in agreement

Email 2
Thanks for the apologies, I don't think you have any fault. Any of us that took a loss had the final decision, and yours it's not even a signal service but a blog were we follow a professional day by day. Thanks for your kind words. I really appreciate it
I don't think you'll do anything like this again, but in case you will, remember you gave us permission for a slap! LOL... thats why I have my mom here with us at the moment...she still knows how to slap my bottom

Email 3
Last month, I started a small group where I am trading funds for some people. It's not much - around $50-$100 a person.The purpose of the exercise is to learn proper trade size and money management.Once people learn it's all about the ROI & Percentage you gain, not the money - your trading will dramatically improve because you now focused on the Monthly ROI, not 'how much money did I make'. Good work...you are on your way
The money is relative to the capital you have. yes Anyway, the group is going good and I'm up about 10% for the month. Good start The profits are small - but the learning is priceless. yes I never knew how much harder it is to pull the trigger when you have someone else's money at stake. LOL...yes its a worry, isn't it I think on the flip side it's making me think through my decisions more and forcing us all to be better traders as a result. It can also make you much more cautious I just wanted to tell you I have a greater respect for what you are doing and I understand why you are pickier on your entries and slower to pull the trigger. It's one thing to hide behind your own trades, it's a completely different story when you have others to answer to for your actions. YES !!!!!!!
Keep up the great work and for taking the time to help us!It's absolutely improving my trading by reading your style & your thought process each day.Thanks

Email 4
I do not want to pour salt on your wound. I deeply regret for latest trade. After reading your apologize to us regarding last trade, I felt that I have to apologize to you and to remind you of one rule you have ignored. Ok
I have been following the price till the end of NY session and was happy when the price come to 1.3028. And it was 68 pips from your entry point. I was convinced your trade is safe, at least from losses. Yes
So this is to remind you. In each trade you were stating "After the trade is 40 pips in profit I will move my stop loss to break even." Yes So all in all your call was in profit and if you obey your rule there would not be any losses. I agree but in such a volatile market I didn't want to be whipsawed out of a longer term trade by being taken out at BE. In hindsight, it was the wrong decision, but in another case it may have been the correct decision Best regards, Thanks for your point, I accept what you are saying and will think some more about it for the next trade

Email 5
My observation is that Fridays sell-off was mainly due to negative expeactations of very weak UK GDP and Retail numbers. I totally agree After the 4:30 am releases and both G/U & E/U (they move in tandem) exhausted themselves, reversal ensued. Maybe we need pay more respect to such market moving risk events. There are always news events, so you can't stay out of the market because of news...but what happened was the actual GDP was SO far out of the range of expectation, that it crushed the GBP and then the Euro followed.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 282

It is 1.45am NY time Friday January 23 and the market is at 1.2944

My trade at 1.2960 is still in play. The Euro is sitting there like a toad on a rock..and looking about as ugly as one. I am currently about 16 pips in the hole which is not the best place to be, but I am looking for Europe to resume the upward curve on the 4h curve.It has a hard Stop Loss at 1.2860. I will be keeping it there for the foreseeable future.
Edit 4.45am NY time After truly terrible UK GDP figures (which far exceeded the estimates) were released, the GBP crashed some 200 pips in minutes, which in turned caused the Euro to drop straight down to our Stop Loss.
Edit 5.00am NY time To each of the members of the group, I make this apology. The last three trades have been the worst trades of my forex trading to date. In the bright glare of 20/20 hindsight, they have been shockers. It is certainly the first time in my forex trading that I have had three such losers in a row.
I have been having an in-depth analysis with Mark (my ex-broker friend who works with me) and all three trades have something very basic in common.... I traded against the primary trend.
I can't believe that I had my head so far up my ass doing other things that I didn't even see it clearly enough. Next time I even mention a trade that is not in the flow of the primary trend...PLEASE, everyone slap me around the head.
I am also now simplifying everything here, so I can focus more clearly on my trades.

Even though I have given three big trades back to the market in recent weeks, it is still a very small percent of what I have taken out of it over the last three years. Even the Managed Fund (which also took the last three trades) is still over 40% annualised in its returns to date.

However, that is not to excuse my hubris and my error in trading against the flow of the primary trend. I won't be doing that again.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 281

It is 1.15am NY time Thursday January 22 and the market is at 1.2992

IMPORTANT Read Edits below

The market has continued to "hang around" the 1.3000 mark (plus or minus 60 pips) for the last 10 hours.I am keen to buy at 1.3000 but am waiting for maybe one more significant move down before placing my buy order.
Edit 5.15am NY time Market has is moving back down into the target area now (It is at 1.3030). I don't want to get cut by the falling knife so I will be looking to buy from underneath 1.3000. (and as the market is moving back up). Edit 6.15am NY time Market is still hanging around the 1.3000 mark. Trying to get in from underneath so that market picks us up on the next upswing.
(I am currently enjoying a lovely dinner at an Indian Restaurant with the two Mrs Jacko's overlooking Hong Kongs magnificent Harbour. The laptop is on the 4th chair. If there is a better business than Forex trading, I haven't found it).
Just to be clear on what I am doing. I am keen to buy at 1.3000. The market has been progressively moving up on the 4H chart. I also consider that the move down from 1.4718 has hit serious resistance at 1.3000 (with an allowance of 150 pips for the volatility overshoot) . However I also want to take advantage of a move up from below 1.3000. So I am now waiting for the market to move down through 1.3000 (to maybe 1.2950)so that can then place my Limit Order to buy at 1.3000. (So I am patiently sitting here with a glass of red waiting for market to fall..then I will send out the SMSes).
Edit 9.30am NY time Have just arrived back home. Market has fallen to as low as 1.2907. Have not sent any SMSes yet. Want to have another look at this situation
Edit 9.50am NY time The 4H curve upwards is moving nicely after a setback caused by the terrible unemployment numbers and housing start numbers. I am a buyer at the current market price of 1.2950 (its less than my original 1.3000 because I like a bargain). SMSes to be sent now Bought at 1.2960
Edit 10.05am NY time I have a hard 100 pip stop loss in place. Given that I have waited for this trade, I am going to leave it there. I am NOT moving to break even after 40 pips on this trade. With the current volatility, I am going to wait until it (hopefully) goes into 100 pip profit, and then move it to breakeven. My Stop Loss is at 1.2860
Edit 11.35am NY time Market is whipsawing up and down. (It almost looks like stop hunting, because it is not being driven by any news). The market has been up and down and is now right back at where I got in. I am still content to be in this trade. I am now letting the trade play itself out
Edit 1.15pm NY time All emails answered. I am off to bed.


MESSAGE FROM JACKO 280

It is 1.15am NY time Wednesday January 21 and the market is at 1.2955

As discussed yesterday, I am still waiting for a base to be formed around the 1.3000 mark. The market has now dropped as low as 1.2843 and has bounced up as high as 1.3018 since then. The Inauguration of President Obama would account for some of the strength of the USD, but also some "risk aversion" is happening overseas. Money is coming out of the UK (GBP is falling) as it appears that their banks are on the brink of nationalisation, and the Euro is going down in sympathy. The drop in the Dow would also be assisting in the "flight to safety"
I am still keen to be a buyer at 1.3000 but I want to see less risk in taking the trade.
Edit 5.50am NY time After staying up all morning in the early hours (HK time) to watch the Inauguration, I have slept straight through the London open. However, I am still keen to be a buyer at 1.3000 but I want to see less risk in taking the trade.
Edit 9.00am NY time Market is still floating around the 1.2900 area. I am still keen to be a buyer but I want to see less risk in the trade. If it stays above the low of 1.2843, I will be much more confident.
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market has moved up quickly through 1.3000 but I am wanting to see a stronger base. This has moved up quickly and will soon retrace. This market will stay in this area for a while yet, so there no need to race into this trade just yet. An SMS will be sent when I am ready to buy
Edit 9.10am NY time The Euro has just pushed through 1.3000 again to as high as 1.3038 and has now fallen back again to 1.3000. This market is "turning". No need to race in just yet but we are getting closer
Edit 11.25am NY time I am now getting ready to buy. Waiting for a drop under 1.3000 before I place the order. Will SMS each of you and update the blog before I execute the trade

Emails

Email 1
is it me..or shouldnt US bonds being unattractive weaken the dollar as investors and soveirgn funds look for a better return? At the moment it is all about "risk" and "flight to safety"... The UK banks (RBS, Barclays, Lloyds HBOS etc) are all dropping off a cliff. Royal Bank Scotland dropped 66% on Monday. This bank was worth GBP 75B only two years ago. but is now valued at GBP 4B . (What is even more scary is that it received GBP 32B only three months ago!!!!!). It is trading at at 10 pence compared to 700 pence two years ago. And it is not alone. Barclays Bank is trading at 76 pence (down from 780 pence just two years ago) Lloyds is trading at less than 8% of its value two years ago. These Banks will all be nationalised by the Brits and that is why money is flowing out of the UK to the US...and with a knock on effect in Europe.
Note: this is just one of the things that are causing the huge volatility ...there are many other things

Email 2
Is it time to buy right now? The volatility is blowing stops out by the truckloads. Be very cautious in buying too quickly. As I said in the blog, it will stay in this area for a couple of days so there is no need to race into this trade. When you see the sweeping moves of 1.2843 (at 6.15pm NY time yesterday) to 1.3018 (at 10.15pm NY time) and then down to 1.2861 (at 3.25 am NY time today), you can see that even a 100 pip stop is puny against this volatility. Those figures show a175 pips up in 4 hours, then down 157 pips in 5 hours. And that is a very small move that has just happened in the last 12 hours

Email 3
what are your thoughts on changing the strategy to increase the stop loss to 200 but use half the number of regular lots to offset the increased sl? You will have maintain the same risk but the reward has been halved (because you have only 50% of the usual lots). Better to be MUCH more selective on your trades

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 279

It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday January 20 and the market is at 1.3000

This market is now in my target area of 1.3000. As discussed in Message 276, I will be watching this market for a little while as I don't think we are going to see a rapid bounce. It may stay in this area for a couple of days. It has been trending down from 1.3384 for a 2 days days now and I don't want to be cut by a falling knife. Even though I am working on the basis that 1.3000 is a strong support level, I am looking for a base to be formed before I launch into this next trade.
Edit 4.50am NY time Market is at 1.2955 but has been as low as 1.2920, so my decision to hang back on trading has been worthwhile. Still watching the market to see an opportunity, but am not racing into this trade.
Edit 8.30am NY time Market has dropped to as low as 1.2910. I am wondering how much of this strength is correlated to the Inauguration of President Obama and whether there will be a sell off of the USD (rise of the euro) afterwards.
Edit 11.00am NY time Market doing nothing....waiting for Obama speech

Emails

Email 1
I am watching the graphs and I see that this level 1.3000 is very close. And I wonder, why exactly this level 1.3000? The euro has been in a downtrend, but like all trends, they change direction after a time period. I believe that the Inauguration of Obama may be the turning point.
I just am looking, that it could fall even further, maybe even test the lows again? Possible... And if this is the bottom level that you are seeing, what could be the plan? Enter at 1.3100? No,...let it go below 1.3000 and see where it goes...then buy on the way back up

Email 2
Nice call of 1.300 (Why am I not surprised) but, there is a general feeling of euphoria over the new President. I think that this may strengthen the $ even further tomorrow. I am willing to miss this trade even if we have been waiting for this set-up for the last week. I will live to trade another day. Be careful tomorrow. We could get a NFP type move if Mr. Obama has a motivational speech. Just my thoughts. I am out for of the market for another day or so. I think you are correct. It is also why I am not racing into this trade...I am walking around it, looking at all aspects and trying to see if it is booby-trapped.
Can he turn this mess around. BIG JOB. God Bless him if he can. I think that it is now beyond the control of the banks and Govts...the banks are now openly admitting that they have no intention of lending out the bailout money (they are keeping it to rebuild and preserve the bank balance sheets and their own jobs) . The only thing that will turn this around now is a return of consumer confidence right around the world and that will take a long time. Have we seen the worst??? I don't think so...

Email 3
there is no question why I like you to be my mentor, very nice answers and promptly, thank you again. Thank you..
Yes this market is kind of so complicated right now, when I look at Monthly charts looks like bull but trend line has been broken and weekly chart, barely bull but also the trend line has been broken. But daily chart is bear market but also trend line has been broken, and fundamental analysis suppose to be bull, very challenging market. This market is in disarray..it is a very dangerous market at the present time, but we continue to tread cautiously. Most importantly, I am very aware of Rule number 1 ...Do not lose money !!

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 278

It is 2.00am NY time Monday January 19 and the market is at 1.3330

The market has moved as 1.3384 after gapping up over the weekend. In the past, a 380 pip move would have meant a strong directional movement. Now, in the current volatility that we have seen in the last six months, it is a minor movement.
I am waiting for this market to come back towards the 1.3000 mark again for confirmation and buy the next movement up.
Edit 4.45am NY time London has taken the Euro down marginally to 1.3260. For those of you who are riding it down to the target area, good trading.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market still moving down. Currently at 1.3191. Those of you who contacted me in Asian session are trading well. Market is heading to my target area.
Edit 11.00am NY time Market has fallen as low as 1.3123 and has risen marginally. But we haven't seen the bottom yet
Edit 8.15pm NY time Market has finally hit 1.3000, with a low of 1.2988. Now that it is in the target area, I am keeping a watching brief on this for the best opportunity to buy.
Note: Today will be quiet with all Banks closed for Martin Luther King day so liquidity will be markedly reduced. Volatility will be marginally increased

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 277

It is 2.20am NY time Friday January 16 and the market is at 1.3232

The market has come within 25 pips of my target area 1.3000...That has boosted my confidence that I am on track of its direction (even if I sometimes get impatient and jump into an impulsive trade.) I will be looking to enter this market again next week. I don't like trading on a Friday...too easy to get stranded over a weekend with a trade, and in this volatile environment, getting killed by a gap down on the re-opening.
Edit 5.30am NY time Market at 1.3255. I am looking for a retracement back to the 1.3000 area early next week for a buy. I am hoping that 1.3000 (or very near ) is the bottom for the medium term.
Edit 7.45am NY time Just a quick note to any trader in a position at the present time. Beware of 9.00am NY time today when TIC Report is released. The estimates are notoriously wrong. Take a look at the last three results; Oct actual $14B vs forecast $28B (50% error); Nov actual $66B vs forecast$18B (366% error) and Dec actual $1.5B vs forecast $40B (2666% error) )......Kinda makes you wonder why we have economists, doesn't it??

Emails (some great emails in the last couple of days...I try not to put too many up as I know the blog tends to get a bit "wordy" but these were good. I enjoyed answering them)

Email 1
Thanks for your patience in general. It takes patience to take a walk after losing 4% on two trades LOL you just keep on walking until the patience is back instead on trying to recoup the losses the same day! Oh NO!!!...Revenge trading...Been there Done that Got the scars to prove it That is something in the past, and even recently, I would do and many times it cost me dearly, so thanks for showing patience even after a few "losing" trades!
Not to confuse things but on a personal note I really don't think we know where the bottom is for the Euro or how soon fundamentals will come back into play. There could still be a vast amount of de-leveraging and repatriation that still needs to take place. Right now any bad news just strengthens the dollar! Yes,,,..It is almost perverse...the more damaging the news the more the USD strengthens...It is the "flight to security", but I wonder how much longer that can go on for.. The more gloomy the US economy becomes the more the dollar gains! Yes
The Yen does not seem to be showing signs of weakening either. Of course fundamentals will rule in the end, of course the Euro is a much more sound currency, but it seems we could still have some time, maybe months(?), before this "flight to the dollar" is over. At some point the Euro could be a very "good deal" indeed! No need to comment just some thoughts. Very consistent thoughts to my own

Email 2
Are you still bearish EUR and the trend still down to 1.3000. Yes I can see the trend is down as it looks in longer frame daily weekly. but what makes be so scared that once i open a position the trend might change possible and the full account will be exploded. only if you are risking more than 2% on your trade my problem (and i can not get over it till now) is once i see a new bottom or a move of 300pips in one direction, immdiatelty i get so excited and try to jump against it. NO !!!! If the market tanking i start adding longs and blow my account. NO!!! The question is : Why do you think that will happen?? Why do you jump in against it the other thing method i tried to use is once i see a break out i enter directly heavey imagining it will fly but soon it breaks and then then get back and i close on loss then it goes the same first direction. You are risking too much and you are "scared money". REDUCE your RISK my problem is i'm so un paitiant and wants to revenge from the market if i lost. and need to cover that lost before i sleep. NOO !!!!
i know it sound funny but the is my problem. in fact, the fund i put is an extra money so i do not worry even if i blow it in one day so their is no pressure from that point,That is NOT the point...throwing money away is just plain silly... treat this as a " Strategic" game where brains wins out over testosterone
i guess the self steam and got tried from reading 10 of books and still am no where, Yes you are,.. you know things that you didn't know before you read the books while looking at other spending 1/2 of my time and they work greatly in this market. because they have become "disciplined" in their trading and not overreacted and not treated the funds with disrespect
I know am not that stupid I understand that and handling many succefull companies but why this market not clicking to me, i realy do not understand. This is not a game where brute force of personality wins..the market doesn't care if you are a great salesperson or a great computer genius or whatever...it cares if you are disciplined, and have a successful strategy, and you only trade when the "odds" are in your favor. Most importantly, the market eats up traders that are emotional and undisciplined

Email 3 (some may recall that this member is helping out a lady who lost a ton of money with her broker)
Man, I would like to share something with you. At the beginning I was stuck to the trend, following the trend and trading the main longer trend. I have changed my mind about it and now I don't have got a set up into my mind. I try to find the set up in the charts rather than inside my head. Excellent That's leaving my brain at the door I think. Charts never lies. If charts tells me short I go short, if they show me long I go long. Ok You are trading the shorter time trends...nothing wrong with that For a start I was trying to be sure about my trades and when I got sure my opportunity was gone by then. Now I just pull the trigger (not as a gambler) because there will be always a degree of uncertainty in all my actions and I as a trader must deal with that aspect. Yes. Excellent attitude For this I use stop loss to minimize the impact of the uncertainty. Good Every day is a new day, a new set up, a new possibility. No memory. You are turning into an excellent trader from what I am reading I have found that this business is about buy/sell people rather than equities, stocks, futures, contracts etc. I am trying to buy/sell what traders should think and how would they react to a possible change in the market I trade. Ok Just thoughts about trading but they are things I have put together and practice in the real world. And they are working. Excellent Just wanted to share that with you due to you have been a guide in my trading live, like Merlin was to Arthur, yeah. Now I'm trying to pull Excallibur out of the rock, it is not a matter of strength but a matter of experience. Yes...exactly
Oh, another experience to tell: last week I was into a Cassino to play black jack for a while and found the reason for they to win always. They have got 2 rules that never, never break, on 16 they hit and on 17 they stop. That's it..........a plan! It is wrote all over the table for the dealer to remember. LOL...I love this statement F**king clever!!!
Thank you very much for your guidance
J
P.S.: R's account is going well, I'm short from 3520 and when I close the trade I will send you the report, she is so happy, after this trade got closed I will change her of broker. EXCELLENT !!!!!!!!!!

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 276

It is 1.10am NY time Thursday January 15 and the market is at 1.3175

The market is moving around without really going anywhere at the moment. In the last five hours it has stayed in a 25 pip range (from 1.3155 to 1.3180). There are two major news events today: at 8.45am NY time.. the ECB rate decision in Europe, and at 8.30am the Producer Price Index(PPI) in the US...so we will see some erratic movements as one plays off against the other.

This market is getting down to my target area of 1.3000. I will be watching the market when it gets there as I don't think we are going to see a rapid bounce. It may stay in this area for a couple of days. Looking back on my trades in the last two weeks, I would have been much better served by having taken the short at a lower price than my 1.3850 and having stuck with that trade, rather than then being impatient and taking the "fade trades" with the NFP. (Oh well, the "woulda, coulda, shouldas").
Edit 3.45am NY time Europe has been open for 45 minutes and there has been little movement in the first hour ...everyone is waiting for the ECB announcement
Edit 9.20am NY time The market is at 1.3175 The net effect of the ECB announcement, the PPI, and the Unemployment Claims, has seen the market up and down and then straight back to where it was some 8 hours ago
Edit 10.10am NY time We will see 1.3000 very soon...But as outlined above, there is no need for me to race into this yet...this volatility will whip your pants up and down and seriously embarrass you if jump into this volatility. There will be lots of better opportunities for me soon when the volatility settles down
Edit 11.15am NY time Market has bottomed at 1.3025 and has now bounced up to 1.3082. It will see 1.3000 very soon

Emails

Email 1
And my understanding is you mostly read charts with your methods, what kind of chartist are you. I am sorry if I am wrong, and Jesse Livermore was also reading charts with his method am I right? Yes Jesse used to read the old "ticker" so he must have been able to "see" the patterns in his mind...I think that the ability to see the direction is most important...If you know the direction, then with good Money management you will win. And it usually only takes a 5 year old to show the direction.
As for being a bull on the euro, the weekly and monthly charts certainly seem to me to be still bullish but with a savage correction (which we are still in).
However...take a look at the weekly and Daily charts...it looks like a short market, but it is certainly a challenge to remain confident when you have a breathtakingly fast 2200 pip upward correction to the down trend in less than 12 trading days. That type of movement is enough to shake anyones confidence in being short this market.
Even the 4H timeframe is a mess.
It is not until you get down to the hourly chart that you can see a steady trend.
I have not heard some one got successful on trading who trades only with INDICATORS have you heard that? No...they end up being confused by all the layers of indicators and stop looking at the simple direction

Email 2
I think that in future we may see next UP trend in Eur/USD. Yes
I think the first major problem is that the Fed and the World Banks are allowed to create money out of nothing. This is the primary cause of global inflation. And global inflation devalues our work and our savings by raising prices of necessities. It is something that I have been looking at ever since the US and everyone else decided to "print" its way out of this crisis. I see that when this crisis is over there will be a much bigger one due to all the Trillions of newly printed Dollars, Euros, GBPs, Yens etc. There is NO WAY that all that extra printed money will not cause heavy inflation (15%+ per year) in the very near future And it may be hyper-inflation in USA. Possible. That is why Germany has been so resistant to bailing out its companies. They experienced hyper-inflation in the 1920's ...which then also resulted in the formation and rise of Hitlers Nazi party....and they were so scarred by that experience that they NEVER want to see high inflation again. I feel sorry for Ms Merkel in Germany. Every other country in Europe is hammering her to print money and bail out German companies, but I think that she can see the huge threat of very high inflation in the future and she does not want to go up that road.

Email 3
First, I am the last person to suggest how anybody should trade. But I must admit to being somewhat confused with your last two calls. The trend, on my charts, is down on the weekly, daily, 4hr and 1hr. But you are looking to buy? The monthly seems to indicate more of a retracement than a new trend. Yes, as I stated in the blog, I was looking to fade the NFP because I (wwwrongly) saw an opportunity that I thought was a better than 50/50 trade....and I was getting impatent waiting for 1.3000 to happen
I have become a fan of channels in combination with the 50% fib in the last couple of months. I use channels on time frames from 15min to daily and fib mainly on 4hr and daily. They give me more confidence in the current trend to trade. With the increased volatility and much larger pip ranges on a daily basis, much more caution is required and entry point is crucial, or you have to put in enormous stops. Yes exactly I have had more than one 100 pip stop hit in the last couple of months. When I review the trade, it comes down to my entry point almost every time. Another big factor has been over eager to trade. Yes Lessons in patience cost a fortune! Yes !!! LOL. Really wish I had learned to like fishing. I have never been into sitting in a boat rocking up and down, up and down, and up and down and up and down. But Mrs Jacko seems to like it ...LOL

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 275

It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday January 14 and the market is at 1.3294

I am having a break from the market until the US session today.

As most of you would know, I also manage Jackson Fortress Asset Management, a small boutique Managed Fund that was established in August 2008. (It is something that we discuss much more in the first group's blog... It is not something that I discuss in this second groups blog as I don't want to cloud the lessons....It is the only real difference between the two blogs). The trades of the Fund are the same trades that I outline in each of the blogs
For those of you who are interested in seeing how a Fund trades and works, see below. The annualised rate of return for the first quarter was in excess of 60% and the annualised rate of return for the second quarter is currently (to Jan 13) in excess of 31%. (The last two trades impacted the second quarters returns by stripping over 20% off the return ... it was easily in excess of 50% for the second quarter until those two trades)
Even if NO additional trades are taken between now and the end of the second quarter, we will have an annualised rate of in excess of 45% for the first half of the year. (Not too shabby, given the extreme conditions and volatility in the last six months and my decision to trade VERY conservatively)
Anyone who is interested in seeing some of the working of a Fund Manager, go to:
http://jacksonfortress.blogspot.com/
User ID jacksonfortressaccess
P/W jacksonfortress

Then click on the embedded link for http://www.jacksonfortressmembers.blogspot.com/ in the Update section (Just above Purpose of the Account) to see the performance of the Fund.

Edit 9.10am NY time The USD has risen (and the Euro has taken a dive) on the terrible US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures. This seemingly perverse reaction is due to the renewed "flight to safety" to the USD. My target of 1.3000 is getting closer
Edit 4.10pm NY time A mostly quiet and uneventful day in NY session. Most of the action has been happening in stocks with Dow and Nasdaq down hard

Emails

Email 1
Hello Wayne, How is the new website progressing. LOL...Painfully...the web designer wants me to sign off on every tiny little thing..It is taking up hours of my time...but we are getting there

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 274

It is 1.05am NY time Tuesday January 13 and the market is at 1.3267

That acrid smoke that you can smell coming from your computer is the smell of my burnt fingers. The last two trades have cost me 4% of my trading capital in just two days. Both trades wore the brunt of a full 2% loss on each trade. This is VERY rare.
I keep telling myself it is just a cost of doing business...but it is still niggles at the ego...it doesn't worry me from the $$ point because it is still only a very small part of the trading profits I have taken out of this market,... it is more the damage to the ego of being SO wrong on two trades.
However even though it is still only a very small part of trading profits I have taken out of this market, I certainly don't enjoy making back to back losses.
So what did I do?? I had a nice walk around Hong Kong last night, looking at all the lights and the Harbour and thinking how lucky I am to be a trader. (The two Mrs Jacko's are off touring through Beijing at the moment, so I am alone for a couple of days).
The emotional highs (and lows) of trading add spice to life. And...without question.... it is still the best business on the planet!!! After a serious talking to myself as if I was giving advice to one of the members of the group, I am now ready to get back into the action.

Emails

Email 1
What is your opinion on using Average Trading Range (ATR) to vary the initial fixed stop? I'm trading primarily off Daily and H4 charts, while peaking at H1 to help fine tune an entry point. I'm trying to determine an ATR indicator that essentially takes the variability of the "noise" into account due to changing volatility……..If you think this idea has potential what parameters for the ATR would you recommend? The variable parameters are what I wanted to get away from so I simplified my method and just made a decision to use 50 pips initially, but when the volatility increased I went to 100. When the volatility increased even further, then instead of moving the Stops to 150-200 pips in size (which I wasn't prepared to lose in one trade) I simply became MUCH more selective on my trades.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 273

It is 1.35am NY time Monday January 12 and the market is at 1.3395

I am disappointed at the result of the last trade. I am now waiting for the market to hit 1.3326 at which point I will put the A-H trade on as an insurance policy to get back my loss. (Because of the volatility in the market I have changed the A-H strategy to allow for a 100 pip move below where I was stopped out before triggering the A-H)
In other words, when the market hits 1.3326 (which is 100 pips below where I was stopped out) , I will place Buy order at 1.3426 (which is where I was stopped out).

As outlined in Message 268 (the first Message for 2009), I am now starting to acclimatise to the increased volatility and I feel that the increased volatility will open up some exceptional trading opportunities. So I have decided to step up my trading levels and trade more actively, now that I feel that I am more comfortable with the increased volatility
Edit 7.15am NY time Have returned home from business meeting to find that my A-H trade has been triggered at 1.3426. A 100 pip Stop in place.
Edit 7.45am NY time If/when it gets to 1.3466 the Stop Loss will be moved to breakeven
Edit 10.25am NY time Well, I certainly haven't covered myself in glory in the last two trades. Those two trades have just cost me 4% of my trading capital (2% each trade) in just two trading days. Not the best start to a new year, but the year is very young and I am in this business for the long term. My last trade was stopped out at 1.3326. I am going out for the rest of the day to clear my head. No more trades today

Emails

Email 1
no more "impatient" trading. We both know better than that. Yes, I promptly got slapped around the head for being impatient
And although I know you trade only the EUR/USD, you might want to take a quick look at shorting cable now (1.5175). LOL....I have enough fun with the Euro... the GBP is even more volatile

Email 2
Thanks for the quick response, I got the SMS today and got in the trade at 1.3519. Unfortunately it went south, but its all part of the game. Yes, take it on the chin and move on...
I was looking at my charts and drew a fib from the high 1.6037 on 7/15 to the low of 1.2329 on 10/28 on the daily. Could the bull we saw a few weeks ago be a retrace past the 50%, and now we are continuing back down? Yes, it is possible...thats why I have been looking at 1.3000 as a bottom target. However, I was getting impatient and thought that the "fade trade" was a better than 50/50 potential trade....however, the market handed me my ass on a tray for being impatient...

Email 3
The market sure has been difficult for me for the last few months. It has been difficult for everyone...the brokers are talking of record levels of margin calls.
In the long term chart for the EU, you still see a BUY trend, correct? and view the last six months or so as a retracement? Yes, have a look at the monthly chart...very difficult to see that "fall off a cliff " as a trend
The trades that we have managed to get in have been SELL orders because we are trading the retracement? Yes
I have just gotten really confused with the current volatility in the market. My preferance is to just trade with the trend on long term but there have been so few trades that I financially need to also trade some shorter term trades. Any suggestions on how to keep it all straight trend wise? Just accept that the market IS volatile...and that we need to be very careful on our trades. Nothing wrong with trading the correction but you just need to be very alert. However, most importantly, Keep looking at the longer term charts to keep your perspective of the right track. Be wary of "not seeing the forest for the trees"

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 272

It is 1.30am NY time Friday January 09 and the market is at 1.3664

The market is almost where it was at the same time yesterday.The big news today is the US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) at 8.30am NY time. There will be a significant move from the release of these figures today so if you are in the market, be very careful. Your Stop Losses will be very vulnerable to "slippage" and "wide spreads" which can really strip pips off your trade by hitting your Stops if your stops close when the news is announced.

Unfortunately, my orders at 1.3850 were not hit last night. I have now cancelled them
However, I am impatient to trade and am considering "fading" the NFP announcement. That means that when the announcement is made the market reacts for about 30-60 minutes. Then all the froth and bubble goes out of the market and it then retraces back to approximately where it started before the announcement. "Fading" the news means waiting for all the excitement to be expelled, and trading the retracement.
NOTE I am NOT trading before the news....I am trading 30-60 minutes AFTER the news has been announced.
It is a bit of a wild trade but the last two trading sessions saw two good fading opportunities and I am prepared to have a small investment on todays announcement. Because it is a slightly more volatile trade and very difficult to know where the market will run to before correcting, I will be SMSing as I trade it.
Edit 6.10am NY time Market at 1.3705. Market just meandering around waiting in anticipation of the NFP announcement.... I will be surprised if we don't see a 200+pip range immediately after the announcement
Edit 9.15am NY time. After shooting up to 1.3749 within a minute of the announcement the market has now fallen to as low as 1.3545. So we have now seen our 200+ pip range. It has been a slower reaction (45 minutes) than I thought but then again the NFP did come out on the expected target.I am now alert to the turning point...
Edit 9.30 am NY time Market now at 1.3528 An SMS is ready for sending...just waiting for the market to exhaust itself. ...It may still go lower Edit 10.17am NY time I have just bought at 1.3526 with a 100 pip hard stop. I am fading this market as I think that this fall may have been overcooked. This is very much a short term opportunistic trade, rather than a strategic trade
Edit 11.35am NY time I am in the red for 22 pips but am prepared to let this trade play itself out. My 100 pip hard stop is still in place.
Edit 4.15pm NY time Stopped out at 1.3426. A very disappointing result.

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 271

It is 1.10am NY time Thursday January 08 and the market is at 1.3620

I am getting impatient to trade. I think it may take some time to get down to my bullish entry of 1.3000. So I am looking for a nice place to sell and get some pips on the way down to there.
There is significant resistance on the 4H chart at the 1.3850 area (from Dec 19 and Jan 02.
It is also 100 pips above the falling 4H trendline from 1.4362 (Dec 29) and 1.3746 (Jan 07)
Given the current volatility, I want to give myself the extremes of the range, so if it gets to 1.3850, I am a seller.
I will SMS you when it gets closer to being activated
Edit 8.50am NY time Market has risen rapidly to 1.3754 on better than expected emplyment figures. However, like yesterday, I expect a retracement very soon.
Edit 9.05am NY time Market is still rising. Now at 1.3770 I am a seller at 1.3850
The Stop Loss will be a 100 pip hard Stop Loss until the trade goes into 50 pips profit at which time the SL will be moved to breakeven. After the profit goes to 100 pips, then the 100 pip TSL will be put in place
SMSes sent at 9.15am NY time
Edit 9.50am NY time Market went as high as 1.3800 but has now fallen to 1.3740. I am less hopeful of my orders being hit today.
Edit 11.10am NY time. Market has dropped as low as 1.3700 but is now at 1.3752...I might get set later today

Emails

Email 1
I am thinking about how to catch a bigger move. One way to do this would be to play without trailing stops. NOOOOOO !!!!!!!!!! Do you think it would be a good excercise for me to just leave the trade as it is (without a trailing stop) and let it play till the end? NOOOOOO !!!!!! NEVER trade without a Stop Loss...one day you will look down and you will have lost your pants

Email 2
Is there a way to get a SMS or Email notification whenever you post a new entry / update to the blog? I don't think so, but I am a techno-moron. However, I am reasonably regular with my postings.
I usually post at 1am NY time , then again as London opens, then as NY opens and then lunchtime NY time
I think google blog itself has no such functionallity, or does it? I don't think so

Email 3 (Some nice confirmations from 3 traders)
Things are starting to really gel for me, I've been very patient in my trade selection and am getting a steady equity curve for the first time. I don't sweat losses and I've made enough now to where I'm only risking profits and not my original stake which is certainly a lot less stressful. Excellent. .....You are maturing as a trader.

Just wanted to drop you a note of thanks for this year so far. I know I haven't talked much (or at all really), but it's simply because I'm just one of those quiet, 'take things in' kind of guys. Reading your thread and your e-mails has helped me immensely this year and I'm really starting to gain confidence and discipline in my trading. So, thank you! Excellent...All I ask for from the members is that they improve their trading. That to me is what it is all about

I would like to report that 2 months into joining your team, I've started to get statistically significant results in my trading …I do think there is an edge to be found in breakouts (in the price today), and value buys (in times when the price is less volatile and following a trend). I have also learnt the importance of a steady and cool hand, and NOT taking profits too early. I am therefore looking to move my trades up from 3% to 5% of capital, and increase my capital to 50k by year end. Excellent. You are maturing as a trader. I especially like the "steady and cool" approach

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 270

It is 1.20am NY time Wednesday January 07 and the market is at 1.3516

The market is back to where it was at this time yesterday. We may see a repeat of yesterdays action in the European time frame.
Edit 8.50am NY time The Euro has gone for a fast rise to 1.3746 on the back of a terrible ADP Non-Farm Payroll figure. However, the ADP is notorious for being way off compared to the Govt based NFP figures. However the market likes to use it to go stop hunting. Expect a retracement within one hour

Two interesting quotes off Reuters:
ROBERT MACINTOSH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EATON VANCE CORP, BOSTON:'The only one number that really counts is the (NFP) number on Friday.
KEN LANDON, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, JP MORGAN CHASE: Although the ADP is known to be widely unreliable, the report plays into the market's worst fears.'
Edit 9.05am NY time Ooops, forget one hour, try 15 minutes
Edit 12.15pm NY time Market is volatile...after dropping to 1.3602, it has bounced straight back up to 1.3724. But the weakness is starting to show...now at 1.3703

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 269

It is 1.40am NY time Tuesday January 06 and the market is at 1.3525

As stated yesterday, I think that this market is heading down in the short term. Those of you who sold at 1.3600 or higher are doing well. I would think that 1.3000 is a nice target.
Edit 3.00am NY time Europe is taking the Euro down again. Market now at 1.3460
Edit 8.15am NY time Market now at 1.3320. I think we may see a rebound in US session, then another decline down to the target of 1.3000
Edit 6.30pm NY time Market has rebounded from the bottom at 1.3311 and has now reached as high as 1.3535. Going into Asian trade I would think that it will consolidate around its current level of 1.3500, before heading back down again in the European session.

Emails

Email 1
You said in your blog, that "the Eur/Usd is five (5) months today since the high of 1.6037 on July 14. It has been 110 trading days. From the day of that 1.6037 high:
1. In the following 42 trading days the Euro fell 2156 pips (from July 14 to Sept 10....from 1.6037 to 1.3881)
2. In the following 7 trading days the Euro rose 1005 pips (from Sept 10 to Sept 21....from 1.3881 to 1.4886)
3. In the following 25 trading days the Euro fell 2558 pips (from Sept 21 to Oct 26....from 1.4886 to 1.2328)
4. In the month of November the market basically did nothing (relatively speaking)
5. In the 8 trading days this month the Euro rose 1188 pips (from Dec 3 to today...from 1.2548 to 1.3736)
When I see it, I think I am very lazy. Because I miss a lot of opportunities. I am feeling bad, when I see so lot of miss trading opportunity.I do not have to feel? NO-ONE could have predicted that type of enormous volatility.
Also, talking to Marks broker friends, LOTS of small retail traders were destroyed by the volatility tearing out their Stop Losses in the last six months. Brokers are reporting that many, many small retail traders were "cleaned out" by the market volatility. So standing aside from the market MAY have been a good strategy
Having said that, I still feel that the market was ambushed by the rapid decline which took place as the Beijing Games took place. (Having been in Beijing at the time, I feel that IF, and that is a big IF, I had been at home, maybe I would have jumped into selling that market....woulda, coulda, shoulda...)

MESSAGE FROM JACKO 268

It is 1.00am NY time Monday January 05 and the market is at 1.3895

I am back !! I can't believe how keen and excited I am to trade again. After a complete break of about a week of not even looking at the market, I realise how much I love trading. (Well maybe I took a peek every so often when passing a Bloombergs/Reuters/Channel Asia screen).
Mrs Jacko also asked me not to even look at emails for the week (so I have a backlog that I will answer today).
It is often said that if you love what you do, you never work a day of your life.
I am ready to rock and roll on the Euro. I have a feeling that 2009 is going to be a mega year for my trading. I am now starting to acclimatise to the increased volatility and I feel that the increased volatility will open up some exceptional trading opportunities.I am starting the year where I left off from last year. I am a Euro bull. I am looking for a discounted position to buy in.

Lets all make some serious money in 2009

Edit 4.50am NY time Market has dropped quite quickly to the 50% Fib area of 1.3633 (from low of 1.2548 on Dec 4 to high of 1.4718 on Dec 18).....a 250 pip drop in less than 30 minutes....12 months ago, if that had happened, you would have thought that World War 111 had broken out...now, it is all a bit of a yawn.
However, I think this fall may go lower to the resistance area of 1.3000. Those of you who are prepared to take a risk, may wish to sell this market down to this level, but I am going to wait till it gets down there (and I don't think it will take very long in the current volatility) and then be a buyer with the trend.
Edit 9.30am NY time Market is treading water at 1.3600, waiting for equities to open.
Edit 6.00pm NY time Todays US session was a relatively quiet session with barely a 100 pip trading range (1.3546 to 1.3659). The fact that there was no immediate rebound or reaction to the rapid 250 pip fall in the earlier Euro session would indicate that the market may be heading lower