MESSAGE FROM JACKO 350
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday April 30 and the market is at 1.3284
My sell at 1.3285 has just had its TSL of 1.3333 stopped out by the spike that went as high as 1.3337 Yes... I was spiked out by a spike that went only 4 pips past my price before falling again. Grrrr...
I may look to get back into this market again becuse it is having major difficulty getting beyond the Resistance line on the 4H charts. (The resistance line is seen by linking up all the highs on the 4H chart starting with 1.3735 (March 23) and 1.3581 (April 6).
Edit 3.10am NY time London has taken it up further, so it may now trigger an A-H trade.
I was stopped out at 1.3333, so I am waiting for it to go at least 50 pips past 1.3333 to 1.3383. At that time I will place a SELL order at the price at which I was stopped out (1.3333).
So I will be placing a SELL order at 1.3333 AFTER the market has gone through 1.3383, so that when the market turns around and comes back down, I will be collected at 1.3333 and the market will be moving down.
Edit 4.55am NY time The market has been as high as 1.3385, therefore triggering my A-H trade. I have just placed an order to sell at 1.3333. Sending SMSes now (Apologies to US traders for the early hour)
Edit 5.05am NY time Have just sold at 1.3333 as an A-H trade.
Edit 5.30am NY time I forgot to add. A 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss is on the trade. Market has been as low as 1.3302 so I have just moved Stop Loss to 1.3402
Edit 8.25am NY time The market is at 1.3275. My loss from the previous trade has now been recovered by the A-H trade and I am allowing it to continue. The market has been as low as 1.3250, so I am adjusting my Stop Loss to 1.3350
Edit 10.30am NY time My A-H trade is doing well. I sold at 1.3333 and the market is currently at 1.3239 so I am 94 pips positive at this point. The market has been as low as 1.3190 (and in hindsight I should have closed at 1.3200...which was close to the 50% fib (from 1.2965 and 1.3385) at 1.3174.
I have now moved my Trailing Stop Loss to 1.3290 but I may close out early if it gets to 1.3150 as I think it may bounce up from there (and allow me to sell again at a higher level)
Edit 3.08pm NY time Market has been down as low as 1.3200 again but I am holding out for 1.3150
Edit 7.50pm NY time I have just closed my A-H trade at 1.3242. I am concerned that the Asian trading session may take it up, also it is the end of the quarter for the Fund so I want all trades closed, I am really tired and need to sleep.....but most importantly, I closed it for a profit !!
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 349
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday April 29 and the market is at 1.3170
As discussed yesterday, the market has bounced up from the Support line and headed up. The target is the resistance line (outlined yesterday) of 1.3330 but now 1.3300. (Some of the more "adventurous traders are now trading the counter trend UP moves based on my comments on where I am stating that the market MAY go....and they are achieving excellent results. It is not something that I recommend, but if you have the risk tolerance for it and are extremely careful, then the potential for some extra pips is there)
We have the FOMC Statement today at 2.15pm NY time. I would expect the interest rate to remain unchanged. (They are down as low as they can go at 0.25% - 0%).
However, if they announce further "Quantitative Easing" (just another way of saying "flooding the economy with more cash") then expect a big fall in the USD and big increase in the Euro.
The market is expecting more QE as shown by the increase in the Euro in the last 18 hours.
This market will get to the resistance level of around 1.3330 (now 1.3300) as outlined yesterday. I expect it will hit it today. At that point I may be a seller.
Edit 3.50am NY time Market has been as high as 1.3213 so it looks like our target of 1.3300 will be easily hit. I am concerned that the FOMC Statement may blow it higher so I will be staying out until after the announcement. (Those of you who went long yesterday and are still in, you may see higher than 1.3300)
Edit 7.45am NY time Market at 1.3270. It looks like the market will see 1.3300 before NY even gets started. I would think that the 1.3300 resistance is in serious danger of being blown through.
Edit 10.15am NY time Beware the FOMC Statement in 4 hours...the market could go anywhere ...real fast !! The market looks as though it has priced in substantial "Quantitative Easing", but there could still be some gas in that tank to send it higher. This is now in "gambling" territory. Whichever way you place a trade, it is a high risk trade at these levels. I am staying out.
Edit 2.o5pm NY time The market is at 1.3330 and sitting just above the resistance line as we wait for the FOMC Statement.
Edit 2.30pm NY time The resistance line has held and the market has fallen. The probability of it resuming the down trend is high. I am a seller at 1.3250 or higher
Edit 2.35pm NY time As I sit here in my pyjamas, I have just sold the Euro at 1.3285. It has a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss...Oh wait...I don't wear pyjamas ! Yew!
Edit 7.00pm NY time The market is at 1.3255. It has been as low as 1.3233 so my TSL has been adjusted to 1.3333 (which has reduced my maximum potential loss to only 48 pips). However the trade is looking good. It seems the resistance line has held and the market hopefully will now try to work its way back to the lower support line down at 1.3000.
Emails
Email 1
why do you have a Managed fund and a personal? My personal account was what I originally traded. A friend of mine (Mark) is an ex-broker and manager of one of the big-name brokers and he had some investors who wanted me to trade for them so I set up a Managed Fund to trade for them. I have restricted the growth of the Fund so that it doesn't grow too quickly and become unwieldy. That Fund now has almost 30 investors who have each contibuted the maximum of $250K.
As from May 1, we are allowing them to increase those funds to a maximum of $500k each. Initial indications seem to show that almost every one of the clients will be increasing their funds with us
That income from the Fund also had some benefits for members of the group such as allowing me to offer a 30% guarantee on the first year to members of the training group who wanted to invest in the Fund. The total invested by the training group is very small (less than $150K ) compared to Marks investors group, so the profits from Marks investors (who do NOT have a profit guarantee) would easily cover the 30% guarantee if I had a bad trading year.
However, as expected, I am achieving better than 30% for the year anyway.
Also, the Fund was established on the very day that the volatility exploded, so we have had the worst possible trading environment in the last 9 months but we hunkered down, we traded very cautiously and we continued to grind out the pips. In a time where most Funds have lost sizable amounts we have done relatively much better.
The market is now coming back to a semblance of of normality and my trading is reverting back to the original strategies. I think that the next 9 months will be much easier and better than the last 9months
does it make a difference I trade the Fund more conservatively because I realise that it is other peoples money and I have a duty of care to not lose their money and earn them a good return
Email 2
When doing your intermarket analysis of the eur/usd which other markets do you look at. None...the Euro/USD is the most dominant market in the world...it dwarfs any other currency pair and any stock indice such as the Dow and Nasdaq
Email 3
As far as the loss of momentum is concerned what is it that you are looking for. Now I have taken all of the indicators off my chart I am a little lost with it. The lows are higher and the highs are less high. ....then it starts to turn,... then the highs are lower and the lows are lower
Don't look for something difficult or a special formula/indicator ....if you watch a ball going up in the air, you can easily see the loss of momentum....it is exactly the same for price on a chart.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 348
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday April 28 and the market is at 1.2990
Our A-H trade did well yesterday with a 196 pip profit. That cancelled out the 67 pip loss from the original trade and gave us a net profit of 129 pips. (A loss trade is not complete until the A-H has been sent in to fight for the lost pips and the two trades are netted off against each other. In the past I have found an 80%+ success rate with using the A-H).
We now start all over again with a new trade. Now if we bring up our 300 periods chart for the 4H we can see:
The support line. By linking up all the lows on the 4H chart starting with 1.2455 (March 3) and touching 1.2479 (March 5), 1.2887 (April 20), 1.2897 (April 21) and 1.2910 (April 22). (NOTE The spike down to 1.2884 (on April 22) can be ignored. ) Following that support line we see a price of 1.2970 as at today
The resistance line By linking up all the highs on the 4H chart starting with 1.3735 (March 23) and 1.3581 (April 6). Following that resistance line we see a price as at today of around 1.3330.
So we can see that the range for today will be between 1.3330 and 1.2970. So the potential to trade the short side is very limited today
Unless the market is prepared to break out of the lower support line, I would think that we will see a bounce up for the next day or two. I don't think that this market is ready to make a major move through the support line.
Edit 6.00am NY time Market at 1.3013. I missed my early London trade edit today. I have been out with friends and they have led me astray...But I am back. London has been very quiet. The market has been very quiet since that big drop at 2pm NY time. Since then it has been in a range of 1.3000 to 1.3030
Edit 7.55am NY time The market is at 1.2984. The market has come down to the support line (see above) but I would be surprised to see it go too much lower. I think that it will bounce UP and head towards the 1.3300 area.
However, if it hits 1.2950 I would be looking to sell it as that would indicate that the bottom support has not been strong enough and has broken.
Edit 12.10pm NY time As expected the market has moved up and has been as high as 1.3087 and has come back slightly to its current price of 1.3062. I am waiting for it to get higher where I can sell into the down trend again.
Emails
PLEASE NOTE If you send me multiple emails before I can answer the first one, when you send another email , Gmail sends it (and any older emails) to the top of the list...and I work from the bottom..
So try to send them one at a time and allow me to answer them, otherwise they ALL just keep going up higher and not getting answered.
I have had some traders send me 5 emails in 48 hours and as they send each one, it picks up the older ones and takes them ALL to the top of the list which means I am not answering them
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 347
It is 1.00am NY time Monday April 27 and the market is at 1.3167
As outlined in yesterdays message, my A-H trade kicked in at where we were stopped out on Friday. We sold at 1.3212 and we have recovered most of our loss from our previous trade. I am letting the trade play itself out at the moment.
Edit 4.10am NY time London has sent the market up but I am still prepared to let this play out a little longer. The market has been as low as 1.3118 so my TSL is at 1.3218.
Edit 6.30am NY time The market is drifting back in London trade. Now back down to 1.3139. (In hindsight, maybe I should have closed at the turnaround of close of Asia/opening of London....and then got back in...No, it starts to turn into scalping)
The short term target is 1.3100, which is the 50% fib from 1.2884 (April 22) and 1.3300 (April 25)
The medium term target is found by linking up all the lows on the 4H chart starting with 1.2455 (March 3) and touching 1.2479 (March 5), 1.2887 (April 20), 1.2897 (April 21) and 1.2910 (April 22). (NOTE The spike down to 1.2884 (on April 22) can be ignored. )
Following that support line we see a target price of 1.2950 as at today
Edit 9.05am NY time The market has gone as low as 1.3092. I am staying in for the medium term.
Edit 10.30am NY time The market has bounced off the short term target of 1.3100, which was the 50% fib and a nice round number, but I am wanting to stay in for the medium term target. A number of traders have traded the short term target and have now picked up 15-20 pips by closing their trades at 1.3100 and getting back in at as a SELL at 1.3115 to 1.3120.Edit 11.30am NY time The market has now been as low as 1.3088 so I have moved my Trailing Stop Loss to 1.3188
I have answered most emails but I have some other business to attend to at the moment, so I will answer all outstanding emails tomorrow.
Edit 6.00pm NY time I have just closed all my positions at 1.3016 for a 196 pip profit. The market has dropped to as low as 1.2998. I am concerned that after the drop in NY trading, that the Asian trading session may take it back up.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 346
It is 6.30pm NY time Sunday April 26 and the market is at 1.3230
An SMS has just been sent saying "It is 6.20pm NY time. I have just placed a sell order at 1.3212. It is an A-H order. I have a 100 pip Trailing stop Loss in place".
It has a 100 pip TSL at this point, though I may change to a target price later.
Edit 8.10pm NY time Sold at 1.3212
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 345
It is 1.30am NY time Friday April 24 and the market is at 1.3170
My sell trade at 1.3150 is still in play. I am currently letting it play itself out. The market has been as low as 1.3112 so my TSL has been adjusted to 1.3212.
Edit 4.05am NY time After sitting betweeen 13130 and 1.3180 for most of the Asian trading session, London has smacked the market and sent it up aggressively knocking out our Trailing Stop Loss at 1.3212.
I will be looking to place an A-H trade in place on Monday to get our 62 pips back
Edit 8.20am NY time Market is at 1.3242 No trade today being a Friday. However the market has moved to as high as 1.3271 which is more than 50 pips past my stop out point of 1.3212. So I will be looking to place an A-H trade on Monday.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 344
It is 1.05am NY time Thursday April 23 and the market is at 1.3015
This week (so far) has easily been one of the dullest weeks in a long time. With the minor exception of Geithners gaffe, there has been little to move the markets.
The Unemployment Claims (at 8.30am NY time) and the Existing Home Sales (at 10.00am) will hopefully put some life into the market and we will see some direction to jump onto.
Edit 4.30am NY time The market is finally starting to drift up. I have high hope of the market hitting my 1.3150 today. As always, I will be looking for it to go through that price point, slow down and then start falling in the direction that I want (which is down).
Edit 8.15am NY time The market has moved up as high as 1.3086. The Unemployment Claims number released in 15 minutes and the market is drifting back (now at 1.3050). I am still hopeful that we will see 1.3150. I am looking to go short at 1.3150 or better. However, I also don't want to be catching the "falling knife" so I will be looking for it to go through that price point, slow down and then start falling in the direction that I want (which is down).
Edit 8.45am NY time The market high of 1.3086 ! No way ! This will go to 1.3150...
Edit 10.05am NY time The market has just hit 1.3000 ...Bounce time !
Edit 10.15am NY time Now 1.3025 and rising
Edit 1.30pm NY time The market is at 1.3095. It is 1.30am local time here so I am handing over to Mark. I will be back online in 4-5 hours.
Edit 6.20pm NY time The market has hit the 1.3150 mark while I was asleep (It has been as high as 1.3160). Mark has sold on behalf of the Fund at 1.3150. The opportunity is still there. The market is currently at 1.3140 and that is near enough. I would recommend a SELL at these prices. A 100 pip TSL is in place.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 343
It is 2.00am NY time Wednesday April 22 and the market is at 1.2940 (exactly where it was at this time yesterday)
This market has been doing absolutely nothing over the last three days staying within the 1.2900 to 1.2980 range. I am (still) working on the basis that this market may see a retracement to the shorter 4H resistance line from (1.3581....april 5 and 1.3390 ...april 13) and now at 1.3150.
However, the longer it stays at these low 1.2900 levels, the more the probabilities move back to another fall in the market. It is similar to when the market approaches a trend line. If it doesn't bounce quickly off the trend line, but instead stays around the trend line, then the market will usually break through.
At the present time, I still think that we will see a retrace up to the falling resistance line (now at 1.3150...and dropping lower each day).
Edit 4.05am NY time Market at 1.2926 I was hoping that London would put a rocket under this market but so far I have been disappointed.
Edit 8.25am NY time Market is still going nowhere... This market has now moved to a 50/50 percent possibility of going up or own. The bias of the trend down has now been canceled out by the fact that it hasn't retraced to any significant degree and is staying in the low 1.2900 area.
The lack of any news events leaves just the speech by Treasury Sec Geithner at 9.00am to have an impact (and given his propensity for putting his foot in his mouth) we could still see a break early today.
Edit 10.45am NY time I don't believe it...Geithner has done it again.!!...someone tie his feet to the floor, please !!
Edit 11.45am NY time After Geithner's statement the market is moving up hesitantly...this is not a strong move. I am hoping that it gets up to our decending resistance line at 1.3150 for me to sell it
Emails
Email 1
I am learning to trade better, even if the results are nothing mindblowing. You are learning a skill...you will get better and better...And you will have it for the rest of your life
March was closed with +7% 7% a month is good
in April I managed to go up 7% again, 7% a month is good just to give it all back and be down -0.5% at this point. My losses in April were due to my testing of some other trading logics. Hopefully, you learnt something from them (what not to do)
Somehow I missed some big moves, by entering not exactly at the best point and being taken out at breakeven, or sometimes taking profits too early. OK...you can see your problems..now you need to take steps to fix those trading faults But my trading is stabilizing, I am happy about it because I didnt expect positive results in the very beginning.
Mostly I look now for big trades at obvious points, and sometimes I look to enter at the levels that you call on your blog.Reading your insights is proving unvaluable for my experience. Good Lately your luck was tested, and so was mine actually both on your calls and on some other ones!!.I had some decent entry points for long term trades, but I took profits early. Retrospectively I should have done differently and trust my calls. This costed 100s of pips...Don't beat yourself up...learn from it and move on to the next trade
I was more confident when you where calling the same trade that I was looking at, but you (I) have been short on luck. It will come around again
Email 2
I guess you know the results that other members of your group achieve. Yes Is there a big volatility in their results or is it smooth? The more aggressive traders have bigger volatility Also, are there any people far above the rest in term of results? Yes, but they are just further along in the development of their trading skills.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 342
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday April 21 and the market is at 1.2940
I know I am sounding like a stuck record (for the younger members...thats a thing that was around before CDs, iPods etc) but this week, I am working on the basis that this market may see a retracement to the 4H resistance line at 1.3250. It will possibly hit the 1H resistance line at 1.3100 early in the week (24-48 hours).
As outlined on Friday and again yesterday, I would actually be careful of opening shorts at current levels. The higher probability is long back up to 1.3100 and maybe higher.
Edit 4.15am NY time Market at 1.2930 The stuck record is still playing the same song and I am mildly surprised that the market hasn't retraced much of last weeks fall as yet...
Edit 8.00am NY time Just after I posted the above edit, the market jumped up to 1.2988. It was almost as if the market read my post, and realized that it had forgotten to do its customary retrace...LOL. The market has now fallen back to sleep and is back around the 1.2925 area.
Edit 8.30am NY time My thinking behind my trades for this week are Firstly, the trend is down, so I am looking for a short. Secondly, my first target of 1.3200 (was 1.3250 earlier) is the shorter falling resistance line from (1.3581....april 5 and 1.3390 ...april 13) and now at 1.3200. Thirdly, however, given the weakness of the market at present, and the fact that the market may not get that high, I might look at the 50% fib (from 1.3391 to 1.2889) at 1.3140
Edit 12.35pm NY time The market is showing signs of a turn. We may see the start of the retrace over the next 4 -8 hours
Emails
Email 1
I have been making less trades lately. Strangely, but as expected, I have also been a lot more profitable. Instead of placing up to 10 trades a week, I've been placing 0 - 3 trades per week. And instead of making 10k and then losing 8k all within the week, I have been able to make 6 and keep 5.5. Of course...by logic, you are being more selective on your trades and only choosing the best ones
I am feeling a bit guilty about this drastic improvement, considering how much less active I am. No, this is not a business where high activity levels is rewarded...it is a thinking mans business
I look at charts once in the morning, send in my request to have my broker call me when price reaches "x", and then leave the platform alone for the day. I do not look at charts again until the next morning or when the broker calls. I know I shouldn't feel bad about being bored and profitable. After all, I'm trading for money, not for thrill, but it just doesn't feel quite right. No. Not at all. Think instead of ways to marginally increase the size of your trading lots
Therefore, I am considering picking up one more instrument, hopefully not correlated to movements in the forex market. I remember you once said you traded futures before you started trading FX. Could you recommend something? I was thinking of maybe coffee beans or OJ. LOL...I think you should spend your extra time taking your wife to the shops and drinking the OJ or coffee
Email 2
This comes up for me every time you say 3200 OR BETTER - the OR BETTER part... I never am quite sure what to look for to consider it has topped out and get in for the sell - HOW TO EVALUATE when it's done moving to our entry. Can you tell me a few things you look for? Usually it is within 50 pips and I am looking for a peak (or trough) then a gradual movement in the direction that I want...unfortunately I was driving too hard a bargain late last week ... By trying to squeeze it to 1.3250, I should have just grabbed it at 1.3200+
Email 3
I must say Wayne your bigger picture view- even when not a rosy picture seems so comforting somehow! be looking for the first signs of inflation....I am not sure how old you are but if you remember the stagflation of the 1970's when inflation was sending the prices of everything up but unemployment was rising also fast and the economy was stagnant, then I think we may see a repeat. If you were too young , like I think you were, ask your parents what it was like. The economy was tanking, unemployment rose to very high levels but the prices off everything went up in leaps and bounds...the economists had never seen anything like it before. Well I think we will see it again very soon
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 341
It is 1.00am NY time Monday April 20 and the market is at 1.3010
Last week was a week of missed opportunity . My last trade (the short trade at 1.3255) was spiked out by the very last spike before the decline. We still made a profit which is MUCH better than making a loss, however it was a good trade that could have been so much better.
Then, the next trade was to get a bargain...and I was holding out for 1.3250. Unfortunately the market only came as close as 1.3231. That 19 pips was the difference between getting into a good trade and not getting in at all. Again, no win...but no loss either.
Remember Rule 1. Do NOT lose money
This week, I am working on the basis that this market may see a retracement to the 4H resistance line at 1.3250. It will possibly hit the 1H resistance line at 1.3100 early in the week (24-48 hours).
As outlined on Friday, I would actually be careful of opening shorts at current levels. The higher probability is long back up to 1.3100 and maybe higher.
Edit 4.20am NY time London is not doing much...
Edit 7.55am NY time Market only moved from 1.3000 at London open to as low as 1.2945 in London trade... not very much at all...and it is now moving up slowly. We may have seen the bottom at 1.2945 or it is very close.
Edit 10.45am NY time I am really crying in my beer now about those two trades last week. Market has dropped in the last 40 minutes to as low as 1.2887 without a retrace of any size on news of disagreement in the ECB regarding rates and amount of quantitative easing ....Also stocks are taking a dump ...So I have to just sit and wait for the next sizable retrace.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 340
It is 1.00am NY time Friday April 17 and the market is at 1.3088
As expected the market broke through 1.3100 on the next move down. It was the one to really break the support line (touching 1.2455 on March 3.... 1.2479 on March 5.... 1.3146 on April 15...and 1.3150 on April 16)...
But I wanted to get a bargain...and I was holding out for 1.3250. Unfortunately the market only came as close as 1.3231.
It was also disappointing that my last trade (the short trade at 1.3255) was spiked out by the very last spike before the decline. We still made a profit which is MUCH better than making a loss, however it was a good trade that could have been so much better. (A matter of the calibration of the sights of the gun being just a little bit off center).
However we may have another chance to get back into this decline in the next 4 hours.
Edit 4.45am NY time The market is at 1.3075. The shortened week (I am disregarding the action on Easter Monday) has been down all week. We may see some profit taking today which hopefully will push it back up again. I say "hopefully" because I want to sell this again next week
Edit 8.15am NY time The market is at 1.3056. It is a Friday and, as you know, I don't like to trade Fridays. However, for the more adventurous traders, the BIG round number of 1.3000 is very close. The market has been moving down all week and the 1.3000 resistance would be strong. I would actually be careful of opening shorts at this level. The higher probability is long back up to 1.3100 and maybe higher.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 339
It is 1.15am NY time Thursday April 16 and the market is at 1.3201
The minor support line at 1.3170 held its line and the market bounced up to as high as 1.3267, and triggering my TSL at 1.3246 for a minimal 9 pip profit.
In hindsight the better trade would have been to close at the minor trend line of 1.3170 (like some of you did...) but then I ran the risk of missing a sizable drop if it had blown through the support line.
Still, a profit is a profit...and it is better than a loss.
I am looking to get back into this trade again very soon as I am still a believer that, in the shorter term, this market will go down. I am hoping to get back in at a higher level than where we are at the moment
Edit 4.00am NY time The market is at 1.3157 After being stopped out at 1.3246 for a small profit, I am dismayed to see that the market has now drifted slowly back down to the 1.3170 support line area. London is just about to open and I am watching to see if they are prepared to crash the support line.
Edit 6.3oam NY time The market has been down as low as 1.3128 but is now back at 1.3180. I believe that the next move down is going to be the one to really break the support line (touching 1.2455 on March 3.... 1.2479 on March 5.... 1.3146 on April 15...and 1.3150 on April 16)...but I want to get a bargain...
I am a SELLER at 1.3200 or higher.
I am looking at getting set at somewhere above 1.3200...maybe even close to where I closed out the last trade (just under 1.3250). An SMS will be sent as I place the trade
Edit 10.15am NY time Market has been up as high as 1.3231. I was waiting for another push up to just under 1.3250 but it hasn't happened....yet
Emails
Email 1
I was wondering why you are located in Hong Kong. Because I love the vibrancy of the place....No other place comes close (Maybe Shanghai??) Hong Kong is 8 hours + GMT which makes it the ideal location for sleep in the night since there is not much movement in the market during New York session and Sydney session. Is it so? I think that the HK time zone is great!! It is exactly 12 hours ahead of NY. It allows me to see the slower Asian trade in the day so I can go out and spend the day with Mrs Jacko. Then London opens at my 4pm (local time) so I am usually home by then and then I watch the market casually till 8pm local time when NY starts trading. So I tend to be most focused around 8 pm till 10 pm....when most people are watching tv etc, which I think is a waste of time
I have been struggling for sleep coz time is MST and I feel it very inconvenient to do forex trading in MST time zone. Any suggestions? Move to HK ???...LOL
Email 2
Just a curious thought. The metaphor, "see the forest for the trees". I always said "see the forest thru the trees" I wonder if you know which one is suppose to be correct? LOL...As I wrote that phrase yesterday i was wondering which was the correct phrase ...I am still not sure, though yours sounds better Yet, when I took a look at each one, they both have same meaning, take time to concentrate on what makes something beautiful. I thought it meant that you can't see the big picture (the forest) for all the details (the trees) !!! I guess! Just a random thought of a severely cluttered mind:0) No wonder the non English speaking traders sometimes ask me what things mean...LOL...its the colloquialism of the English language!
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 338
It is 2.30am NY time Wednesday April 15 and the market is at 1.3230
Our trade is still in play and is playing itself out. Because the market has been as low as 1.3218, our trailing Stop Loss has been moved to 1.3318.
As stated yesterday, I currently have a 100 pip TSL but I am going to set myself a Target Price for this trade. I am going to close the trade IF / WHEN it reaches 1.3100 which is the old 50% retracement (between 1.2455 and 1.3737) which hs been a strong support. I think it will bounce off 1.3100 once or twice more before finally breaking down hard so I will close out at 1.3100 and sell again higher up in the next day or two.
Edit 5.00am NY time Market has been as low as 1.3203 so my TSL has been moved to 1.3303
Edit 8.35am NY time Market is at 1.3168. Still waiting patiently for market to fall to 1.3100 area. Have decided to place my buy order to close the trade just above 1.3100 at 1.3110.
Edit 12.15pm NY time The market is bouncing off the minor support line at 1,3270 (If you place a support line on your 4H charts starting at 1.2479 (on March 5)...and touching 1.3087 (on april 09...and 1.3125 ..on April 12).... and now at 1.3170) I have two options. Close the trade or let it play itself out to the major support line at 1.3100. The price is tending to stay around the minor trend line which usually means that it will try to breakdown through it.
Then again, we don't want to lose some pips unnecessarily...we can always get back into the trade. (Those of you who are more active traders may want to trade this approach).
Edit 1.05pm NY time PS The market has been as low as 1.3146 so my TSL has been adjusted to 1.3246
Edit 6.30pm NY time The market is at 1.3217. The minor support line at 1.3170 held its line and the market has bounced up marginally. In hindsight the better trade would have been to close at the minor trend line (like some of you did...) but then you run the risk of missing a sizable drop as it blows through the support line. Anyway, I am still in the trade and patiently waiting for this market to crack down. My TSL is still at 1.3246 so I have a guaranteed profit in place.
Emails
Email 1
A while ago you wrote: "It is time to ramp up our trading and go for the super-normal profits"I was just wondering what you meant by that, and what you are going to do to achieve that. Did you mean taking more trades, Yes or is it something else? Hmmm... .. I think we are starting to come out of the difficult trading period... I think that the speed and depth of that 3500+ pip move down (from August to Nov) was so unusual that everyone either stayed out of the market or just got destroyed by it....then the quick 2300 pip upward reaction in December destroyed some more traders...Luckily, we hunkered down which saved us from damage.... (but I also think that if I hadn't been distracted by being in Beijing for the Olympic Games (which is really when it all started) we would have been onto some excellent trades).....I think that it is now time to get back into the game
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 337
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday April 14 and the market is at 1.3351
After diving to a low of 1.3087 late on Thursday (7.15pm NY time), the market has rallied in thin trade over Good Friday and Easter Monday to as high as 1.3390.
I am waiting for the real markets of London and NY to kick in before I believe in the strength of this rally.
Edit 4.30am NY time The market is at 1.3283 The market rally over the Easter break looks as though it was slightly overdone and the market has fallen back slightly in late Asian session. I am watching to see what London is going to do with this rally in the Euro.
After an extended break from trading over the four days of Easter, I am looking forward to some good trades.
Edit 7.55am NY time The market is at 1.3283 (it hasn't moved far since the post above). My previous (but then canceled because of Easter) order at 1.3350 would have been a good position to sell earlier today.
Lets look for our next trade.
Firstly If you place a resistance line on your 4H charts starting at 1.3735 .(on March 23)... and touching 1.3581 (on April 6)and... and now at between 1.3450 and 1.3500
If you place a support line on your 4H charts starting at 1.2479 (on March 5)...and touching 1.3087 (on april 09...and 1.3125 ..on April 12).... and now at 1.3150
Secondly, there are a series of lower highs and lower lows on the 4H chart since March 23 so the bias in the market is downwards and
Thirdly, the market has bounced of the 50% fib at 1.3087 (between 1.2455 and 1.3737) to as high as 1.3390 but not gone higher than the previous high at 1.3522
On the basis of the above, I am a SELLER at 1.3250 or higher
Market has moved as I typed this ...will wait for a move back up then will send SMS
Edit 8.30am NY time SMSes sent. I have sold at 1.3255 And a 100 pip TSL is now in place
Edit 9.15am NY time Market has come back to allow anyone who missed the first time to now get in at 1.3250 or higher (currently 1.3255 again)
Edit 10.45am NY time I currently have a 100 pip TSL but I am going to set myself a Target Price for this trade. I am going to close the trade IF / WHEN it reaches 1.3100 which is the old 50% retracement (between 1.2455 and 1.3737) which hs been a strong support. I think it will bounce off 1.3100 once or twice more before finally breaking down hard so I will close out at 1.3100 and sell again higher up in the next day or two
Edit 4.30pm NY time As we look back over the US session, the market has moved up and down and we are almost back to where we started. Our trade is still in play and is playing itself out. Because the market has been as low as 1.3225, our trailing Stop Loss has been moved to 1.3325.
Emails
Email 1
Jacko, if you're thinking there's going to be a big move over Easter, that's a weekend, and since you close all of your trades, you won't be in it the big move, if there is one. No
With your post today, how to you plan on taking advantage of something like that? I don't intend taking advantage of it ...I believe that the weekends and vacation breaks are times to refresh the brain by putting trading aside...It will still be there when you get back...and everyone needs a break from trading, otherwise you dont see the forest for the trees.
It is an important benefit of this business....you get weekends off and vacations when the markets are basically so thin that it is not worth the risk of being in a trade
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 336
It is 1.00am NY time Monday April 13 and the market is at 1.3168
It is Easter Monday and the market is very quiet as most Banks around the world are closed for the Easter break. The market is very thin and so we may see extremes of movements on little volume. I have decided to take advantage of the four day Easter break and will not be trading today.
I will be back tomorrow. Enjoy your family time
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 335
It is 1.00am NY time Thursday April 9 and the market is at 1.3258
The market has not been doing very much in the last 18 hours. The US Trade Balance numbers and the US Unemployment Claims are released at 8.30am today but they are not known to be real market mover News events.
I am starting to get a feeling that there may be a major move over the Easter break in the thin markets and I am 51% certain that it will be a fall in the Euro. These type of trading periods are notorious for some big starts of a move. I have seen it over Christmas breaks, Thanksgiving breaks and Easter in the past few years. This is just a note to give a heads up to watch for a potential significant move.
Edit 4.45am NY time Market is moving up slowly to my sell order at 1.3350. Some of you may be wary of catching the "falling knife", so some of you may want to take the safer route and watch where it goes and then place your order as it falls back through 1.3350
Edit 8.45am NY time The market is at 1.3278. The US Trade Balance numbers and the US Unemployment Claims have both been released with minimal impact. It is the day before Good Friday and I don't want to be caught with a position over the break, so I am canceling my SELL order at 1.3350. I was hoping that the order would have been hit some 24 hours ago but the market refused to co-operate.
Emails
Email 1
please don't forget to remind Geoff from time to time that at least one member from your group would like to hear more from him. I am talking to Geoff every day...we flew him up to HK some time ago and he was horrified by the amount of time that I was spending on the blog and answering emails (especially the really technical questions) and I almost scared him off helping us ...LOL....we are still trying to talk him back around
Now that I thought of what you wrote, there really is no point to go after so many currency pairs as you were suggesting. And the results also were not surprising: when I would place my orders it would be either mostly all of them were good or mostly all of them were bad. Yes, because you are either right or wrong about the USD...the other half of the pair is almost irrelevant
So now I've decided to only focus on EUR/USD (because that's what you do) and GBP/USD (I think it behaves in a rather consistant matter, when I look at the daily chart). Just beware of the volatility of the GBP compared to the Euro...it is 1.5 - 2 times more volatile than the Euro
Email 2
I have been watching the market today and looks like you are right once again about the market bouncing back in the afternoon US session.The Asian session took the market up about 100 pips and now the US session is pushing it back down.. Do you find that when this happens, does the afternoon session usually push it back to where it was in the morning (meaning same amount of pips)? Not always ...it works mostly if there has been a strong move in one session
Email 3
You've referred to using the best financial newspapers for your fundamental analysis. Would you mind sharing which ones you consider to be the best? I like (1) unbiased (2) non-US papers and (3) which are in English...That narrows it down...but I like the Financial Times out of London, the South China Morning Post out of HK and the Business Times out of Singapore...The editorials are very good in each of those papers Also, do you use any on-line resources for your analysis? Bloombergs and Reuters
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 335
It is 1.00am NY time Wednesday April 8 and the market is at 1.3182
Those traders that sold on Monday at the 1.3550 and stayed in the trades are now doing exceptionally well (1.3550 -1.3180 = 370 pips...an excellent trade).
The market is now getting to a very oversold position where the likelihood of a retracement back up exceeds the potential for further significant drops. I suggest not chasing this market but wait patiently for the next correction back up to that old 4H support line at 1.3330
Edit 4.30am NY time Market at 1.3177. Same as last paragraph (see above)Edit 7.45am NY time Market at 1.3235 . The market has started the climb back up of the retracement. My 1.3350 sell order is still in place.
Edit 11.15am NY time Market at 1.3250 Still edging up
Emails
Email 1
Just a quick question. On the last trade on Friday (the one that Mark closed while you were sleeping), was in your intention to keep it over the weekend. No. I have a policy of ALWAYS closing my position over a weekend
I don't understand why you took it so late on Friday. I thought that I could just get a quick hit at the market
Do you usually close out all open positions for the weekends? yes...I can always open a new position on Mondays in seconds...it is not worth the risk of being in a position over a weekend......the risk of the unknown over a weekend doesn't justify holding a position. Also, I was remiss in not explaining that rule again to the newer members
Thanks for all you hard work on this blog. It is much appreciated. Thanks I really appreciate that
Email 2
I just saw your blog post about the market bouncing back up, it looks like it's happening already. So I took your advise and closed my position 117 pips in profit. Thanks for the insight. Excellent work...just remember the BIG moves in one region are "often" (sufficiently significant) reversed in the next regions trading session.....we are seeing it now as I am typing (look at the reversal at 8am NY time on Tuesday)
Email 3
Can u explain more on the minimal numbers of trend lines? As in how do u use the trend lines? and how do u draw them? from highest high to lowest low? Only two trend lines.....join the highest highs...that is your resistance line.... Then join all the lowest lows...that is your support line. The distance between the two lines at at one time is your potential trading range
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 334
It is 1.00am NY time Tuesday April 7 and the market is at 1.3372
For those traders that read my posts yesterday and acted upon them, you have done very well. As outlined , the market fell from 1.3550 to 1.3486 (to close the gap), then on to 1.3475 to hit the 4H trend line, then went lower. Those who closed at around the 1.3360 area did very well. (1.3550- 1.3360 =180 pips....an excellent trade)
As to why I didn't take the trade, the reason was that Mark and I were both at a function and did not wish to have a trade unsupervised. We are now trading very large volumes and and we simply cannot afford to have a trade unsupervised. Also, we still try to have a life beyond trading (even though the function we attended was a Managed Funds function) and we also have to sleep. However, we are getting closer to having a 24 hour/5 day business.
A number of traders have emailed me to say that they scored some big, big pips from that trade yesterday. Some are still in the trade....Good work
Having said that, I am disappointed that we didn't add 180 pips to OUR tally. The good news is that another opportunity will come around the corner in the next couple of days...That's why I love Forex trading!!!
Edit 4.20am NY time Market at 1.3357 As I have been saying for some time now, I think that we are in a bear market and I would not be surprised if the 1.3735 high (reached on March 23) is the high for quite some time. So.....I am gearing up to take short positions on upward retracements. Now I won't get them all...but I will get them at good prices.
At the present time I believe that we may see a retracement back to as high as 1.3500 in the next week or two..If you place a resistance line on your 4H charts (starting at 1.3735 ...March 23... and touching 1.3581 ...on April 6)and... and now at 1.3550
If you place a support line on your 4H charts (starting at 1.2479...on March 5...and touching 1.3112 ..on March 12...and 1.3178 ..on April 1).... and now at 1.3330
.....You will see the range
Edit 4.45am NY time Oh, look....We may also see a breakdown though the support line today at 1.3330
Edit 5.05 am NY time By the time I had finished typing the last edit the market was collapsing...looking to get in on a minor retrace above 1.3300
Edit 5.30am NY time I am doing what I should have done 45 minutes ago...I have placed a limit order to sell at 1.3300
Edit 8.40am NY time I believe that the US session may retrace the Asian and European move back to the congestion area of 1.3350...so I have moved my sell order to 1.3350 with a 100 pip TSL
Edit 11.00am NY time Market is moving back up gradually....has been as high as 1.3292 ....and I am hopeful of getting hit. My order to SELL at 1.3350 is in place and will remain in place until hit.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 333
It is 1.30am NY time Monday April 6 and the market is at 1.3565
The market has broken above the 4H trend line, so I am waiting for it to return to the trend line (currently at approx 1.3475) and either break down through it and resume the downtrend OR bounce off it and confirm that it has changed to an up trend on the 4H time frame.
Edit 4.40am NY time Market at 1.3550 The market has been as high as 1.3581 today but appears to be struggling now to stay above 1.3550. Also the small gap from the weekend has not yet been closed. For those of you who are adventurous, a short, with an initial target price of 1.3486 (to close the gap) and then a second target of 1.3475 (the 4H trend line) would be a good prospect.
Edit 8.00am NY time Market at 1.3500 Market has bounced off 1.3500 a couple of times but the support is about to be broken
Edit 8.35am NY time Market at 1.3475 Market has now closed the gap aand hit the support line at 1.3475 (been as low as 1.3471). I think that the support will give way today (after a minor bounce or two off 1.3575) and the market will go lower. No real news events till later in the week so no extreme reactions on News this week
Edit 11.55am NY time The market has fallen through 1.3475 to as low as 1.3356 and is now bouncing off those lows. The market will bounce back in afternoon trading of the US session, so I would be taking profits at these levels
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 332
It is 1.20am NY time Friday April 3 and the market is at 1.3424
My short trade at 1.3472 is in place. I have now moved to a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss.
Edit 1.35am NY time The market has just hit 1.3405. My TSL has been adjusted to 1.3505 (so my maximum potential loss is now down from 100 pips to only 33 pips (1.3505- 1.3472 =33 pips)
This Trailing Stop Loss (TSL) is an method I used to trade before the excessive volatility started in August last year. It is now time to resurrect it, in an attempt to prevent being stopped out prematurely. (The BE +5 rule...after 50 pips....was safe, but also too limiting on profits.)
Edit 3.25am NY time Market has moved to as low as 1.3397 so my TSL has been adjusted to 1.3497
Edit 6.20am NY time The decision to move away from the BE (+5) method back to the 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss method (that we used until the explosive growth in volatility earlier this year) has paid immediate dividends.
If I had stuck to the BE (+5) method I would again been stopped out for a 5 pip profit.
However, by reverting back the old tried and true method of a 100 pip TSL, we have stayed in the game and not been shaken out.
Although the risk is higher (because at the moment the TSL is set at 1.3497 we could still lose 25 pips ...that is 25 pips above my entry at 1.3472), I am prepared to risk it.
Edit 8.10am NY time In hindsight (that wonderful knowledge that we get AFTER an event !!!) I should have taken profit at the round number of 1.3400 some six hours ago.
However, we are still in and we have aprox a 50 pip profit cushion for the NFP (market now at 1.3425).
I am prepared to leverage up using these profits on the basis that I believe that the expected 660K number for the Non Farm Payrolls is too heavy. I dont believe it will be that high.
I will be looking to get out if the NFP sets off an extreme reaction in my favor because I expect a bounce back so be prepared for a possible SMS
Edit 9.10am NY time The NFP came in basically on target. The market went up but only as far as 1.3475 (well below my Trailing Stop Loss at 1.3497) and is now heading down (currently at 1.3373).
Because it is a Friday, I am going to set a target price of 1.3310 as my buy price to close the trade
Its amazing, but the more I revert back to my original basic system (except for a bigger 100 pip TSL), the better I trade. That is not to say that the BE (+5) strategy of Marks wasn't a good stategy, but the "risk" reduction was overshadowed by the loss of "reward". Looking back over this trade, IF I had stayed with the BE (+5) strategy , I would have been taken out twice at that level.
Edit 9.30am NY time I have just closed my shorts from 1.3472 at 1.3400 for a 72 pip profit. Looking to go short again today at a higher level as I believe this will continue down next week.
Edit 10.15am NY time I have decided to capitalize on the market win and attempt to compound up on my profits.I believe that this market may retrace up to the downward sloping 4H resistance line starting at 1.3735 (March 23) and touching 1.3639 (March 26) and 1.3472 (april 3) and currently at 1.3470. But in the medium term ( next week ) it will head back down.
I have just placed an order to go short again at 1.3450. I have a 100 pip TSL on it
Edit 12.10pm NY time My sell at 1.3450 has been triggered. It has a 100 pip TSL
Edit 5.30pm NY time As I was asleep, Mark closed my positions in this second trade at 3.45pm at 1.3475 for a 25 pip loss.
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 331
It is 1.20am NY time Thursday April 2 and the market is at 1.3267
As stated in my late edit yesterday, I was stopped out (again!!!!) with a 5 pip profit. (I want to know when that black cat crossed my path and caused me to have such a run of 5 pip winners instead of a nice long trend of 200+pips!!!)
The only positive things about these 5 pip winners is that we are getting the direction of the trades correct with a high percentage of winners, (because not only are we getting the direction correct, but the trades MUST move at least 50 pips in our favour before we trigger the BE rule, so it is moving sustantially in our direction each time).
But we are allowing the market retraces to take far too many pips back.
This "safety first" strategy is causing me to rethink the size of the SL after we establish the BE....
Edit 3.35am NY time As stated yesterday and the day before, in the longer term view, I believe that we are still heading in the bearish direction. If you look at the daily charts, you can easily see that the market may retrace upwards in the short term, but only as far as 1.3590, before heading back down. Any other trades are shorter term speculative trades where we are trying to "smash and grab" some pips...but only in the direction of the main trend (shorts).
Edit 7.15am NY time I have been watching this market going up... I am slightly confused as to why Europe has run it up when an interest rate cut is supposed to be a foregone conclusion...Trichet rarely surprises the market, so I am not sure that there hasn't been a fake move by some big players.
An ECB announcement on top of a G20 meeting sees me hiding in the corner while the "elephants" are jumping around
Edit 8.30am NY time The market has pushed the Euro to 1.3423 on disappointment of only 0.25% cut in interest rate...probably a good move to "fade" ....but the ECB Press Conference (on now) and Mr Trichets speeech later (10.00am) poses too many risks
Edit 12.05pm NY time The market looks strong at the present time. Could see 1.3500+ very soon
Edit 7.30pm NY time Market has bounced off the 4H trend line resistance at 1.3515 (it bounced away quickly...to as low as 1.3420). It has now moved back up marginally to as high at 1.3470 to confirm and I would expect it to now fall. I am a SELLER at 1.3450 (or higher). I have not sold yet. I will send an SMS as soon as I have sold....I am hoping to get a better price than the current 1.3459
Edit 7.55pm NY time I have just sold at 1.3472 with a 100 pip hard Stop Loss. I want to let this trade breathe so I will move to a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss when it is 50 pips in profit.Edit 10.21pm NY time Market has hit 50 pips in profit. I am adjusting to 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss
Emails (some excellent emails below)
Email 1
I have noticed that you often refer to trend lines which you have drawn on your chart. Which I have found is an art form of it's own(especially on time frames shorter than the daily). I have found that if I only ever put the two trend lines (one only for resistance resistance and and one only for support) it is very easy to see the range.
Do you also always have horizontal support and resistance lines on your charts or do you just instinctively see those areas? Instinct i think, or just the ability to see it on the charts without lines, but I usually treat those points as lesser support and resistance so I don't get overly concerned about them
Email 2
Thanks for all your help. Thank Mark too, because I know you guys are kind of a team. Even if he doesn't like to post his thoughts. Mark is a cynical old broker who has seen it all and all he wants to do now is have a quiet life with no clients or staff and trade his own account with my input which he may or may not use. He is a good guy to be with. He is an absolute fountain of knowledge about how to handle brokers.
I am pretty sure you like his input, just as I look forward to yours each day. Yes, though I am having a bit of fun with him at the moment about his "safety first" method of moving SL to 5 after it has moved 50 pips in profit (It has improved our win rate but at the cost of total profits because we are closed out too many times). About a year ago I discussed how a broker like Mark would be absolutely appalling at opening a "normal" business...If he opened a coffee shop and it wasn't profitable by 11am in its first day, he would want to close it down... whereas when you have been in business like I have, you know that sometimes you will have a drawdown but that the business (trade) is sound and can absorb a small loss in the short term for the benefit of the longer term
Email 3
As always I monitor your trades and this one this time I don't get it! After the gap of the last rally was closed, we are seeing some short term bullish sentiment on the 4h chart. It nicely touched the trend line and the it touched it the second time, making a higher low and the nice morning star pattern has been formed right on the trendline. Yes i agree
This information tells me, although we are in a long term downtrend, yes we are seeing some bullish sentiment that could in my opinion push the price to arround 1.3400 level.Is this short trade rather a decision on fundamental info regarding the upcoming news in the early NY session? yes, and I was hoping it was going to be enough to crack through the support line
I have a buy limit order at 1.3210 with a 50 pip SL, just below the recent low? Good trade...you were trading the technicals from a bullish perspective, I was trading the fundies on the bear side with the potential of a big move down based on ADP NFP, the upcoming ECB interest rate announcement and the failure of the G20 to do anything of value I was hoping it would break the support line
Email 4
You trade only EUR/USD, while Forex provides many more pairs. Yes and if you look at them over the long term you will see that all USD based pairs follow the basic same trends (Pull up GBP/USD or AUD/USD or USD/CHF on weekly charts and you will see the same basic trends)...so why play with more than one, especially ones that are not the pair that have the best liquidity. Also, the EUR/USD has the best "volatility" for my style...GBP is too erratic (it moves 1.5 to 2 times more than the Euro) and the AUD is too slow and doesn't move enough
Don't you think this is something you do not take advantage of? Of course, you couldn't be as focused on all pairs as you are focused on EUR/USD, however you would increase the number of trades, and in overall you could probably end up with 1 winning trade per day. I could increase the number of trades and end up with a 1 winning trade per day on the Euro if I wanted to simply move to a shorter time frame...but that is not how I want to trade
You could keep the trade sizes lower So, are you suggesting that I take smaller and lower quality trades for the sake of trading more????? Hmmm....no thanks and keep the EUR/USD as your main pair. This is something I am trying right now, last week I had good success, and this week so far I have moderate success. I will keep on trying this strategy for a few weeks more to see if it is worth going live with this strategy. Excellent
Don't you think you should at least try demo trading in this way? LOL...No.
Email 5
You know, I'm finding the EURUSD to be a pretty simple beast for the most part. It loves to channel, wedge, and it adores 50% fibs. YES
I've given up looking at any other pairs, as I find it is quite sufficient to just focus on this one and understand how it moves. Exactly It's fascinating actually.
So we're currently at 1.3275 and if we punch above the last high of 1.3286, we're going to the earlier high of 1.3342. If we pass that, then we're on our way up to the descending trendline to re-establish that boundary. Let's hope that happens, because then we are going to make a crapload when we break out of this wedge, and like you, my call is to the downside. If/When that happens, we're on our way to triple-test the 7-year old ascending trendline, as per my call in one of my previous emails. I would agree with those comments
MESSAGE FROM JACKO 330
It is 1.30am NY time Wednesday April 1 and the market is at 1.3187
As outlined yesterday, the best option was to take the "alternative, and more aggressive stance .... to sell now in the mid to low 1.3300 area, and if it goes against you, then use the A-H strategy".
This strategy is still the prefered option again for today. I am seriously looking at taking a trade on any sign of a small retracement back above the 1.3250 area.
Edit 4.10am NY time Market at 1.3187 again The market has done very little in Asian trade. London is looking subdued at the moment. Waiting on the ADP Non Farm Employment (NFP) numbers at 8.15am NY time.
Edit 6.10am NY time I am keen to sell this market at 1.3250 or better. If it doesn't reach 1.3250 before the ADP NFP numbers are out I will be holding off to get any spikes. I will SMS as soon as I have placed my trade.
Edit 7.00am NY time Market has just gone through 1.3250. I have decided to watch this market until the ADP NFP numbers are released. I don't want to be spiked out by those numbers. However, they might spike the Euro up so that I can get a better sell price (maybe up closer to my prefered price of 1.3590 outlined yesterday).
As stated yesterday, in the longer term view, I believe that we are still heading in the bearish direction. If you look at the daily charts, you can easily see that the market may retrace upwards in the short term, but only as far as 1.3590, before heading back down.
Edit 8.35am NY time I have just sold at 1.3255. I have a 100 pip hard stop loss in place
Edit 11.55am NY time The market has just touched 1.3205. I have just gone 50 pips in profit. I have now moved the Stop Loss to BE (+5) at 1.3250 so I have a free trade with a minimum guaranteed profit of 5 pips
Edit 8.30pm NY time I have just woken to see that I have been stopped out (again!!!!) with a 5 pip profit. (I want to know when that black cat crossed my path and caused me to have such a run of 5 pip winners instead of a nice long trend of 200+pips!!!) This "safety first" strategy is causing me to rethink the size of the SL....
Emails
Email 1
I have been reading your posts and noticed that you never mentioned the 1.34 to 1.345 level, which seems to be of significance as a possible resistance handle on the hourly and daily charts. Yes, but I see it as minor resistance compared to the resistance trend line from 1.3735 (March 23) and 1.3639 (on March 26) which is now at around 1.3550. I also factor in a small amount for Stop hunting which takes me up a little closer to 1.3570-1.3590
The level is also the 50% fib retracement from the 1.3736 high of March 23 to the 1.311 low of March 30. Yes i agree
Is there a reason you do not view the mentioned level as a possible resistance zone? I did, but I see it as minor compared to the resistance trend line Why did you zone in on 1.3590 specifically? Pull up a four hour chart. Place a resistance line on the tops (starting at 1.3735 on March 23) ...now put a support line on the bottoms....we have been in ranging markets lately....Now can you see it???
No comments:
Post a Comment